Unemployment and crime: the role of apprehension

An increase in the unemployment rate decreases the opportunity cost of crime and increases the crime rate according to standard microeconomics models. However, a large body of empirical research has shown that an increase in unemployment may increase or decrease crime. By incorporating the return to crime into standard economic models, this paper shows that an increase in unemployment, as in recessions, decreases the opportunity cost of crime and the return to crime as well. As a result, the effect of unemployment on crime is ambiguous and depends on the apprehension rate. An increase in the unemployment rate tends to decrease the crime rate at lower apprehension rates, but to increase it at higher apprehension rates. An increase in the generosity of unemployment insurance benefits does not necessarily reduce the crime rate, and the effect of more generous unemployment insurance on crime depends again on the apprehension rate.     

“Last Hired,First Fired”: The Effect of the Unemployment Rate on the Probability of Repeat Offending

Research examining the connection between the unemployment rate and the aggregate crime is inconclusive. One explanation for the inconsistent findings is that the unemployment rate influences the criminal activity of repeat and first-time offenders in different ways. Results support this thesis by revealing an inverted U-shaped association between the unemployment rate and the probability of repeat offending. The curvilinear relationship likely results from repeat offenders and those lacking a criminal record entering and exiting the labor force at different levels of unemployment. Our findings highlight the role that the unemployment rate plays in affecting repeat offending and underscore the importance of distinguishing between repeat and first-time offending when analyzing the effect of the unemployment rate on crime.     

EXAMINING THE GENERALITY OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT–CRIME ASSOCIATION

This article examines whether the relationship between unemployment and criminal offending depends on the type of crime analyzed. We rely on fixed‐effects regression models to assess the association between changes in unemployment status and changes in violent crime, property crime, and driving under the influence (DUI) over a 6‐year period. We also examine whether the type of unemployment benefit received moderates the link to criminal behavior. We find significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime but not on other types of crime. Our estimates also suggest that unemployed young males commit less crime while participating in active labor market programs when compared with periods during which they receive standard unemployment benefits.     

The criminal career: Estimates of the duration and frequency of crime commission

This paper deals with measuring two dimensions of the criminal career: residual duration and frequency. It reports results from estimating the parameters of a model in which offenders have a probability of desisting from further participation in crime following a conviction and, if they persist, a rate of crime commission. The probability of desisting and the rate of commission are seen as varying with offenders' personal characteristics and criminal records. Moreover, this paper discusses the difficulty of estimating models in which failure to commit a new crime might be attributable either to termination of the criminal career or to a censored follow-up period. The paper reports both successful and unsuccessful estimation attempts and discusses complications when distinguishing empirically between duration and frequency.     

The dynamics of unemployment and imprisonment in England and Wales, 1946–1985

This paper explores the dynamic relationship between unemployment and prison admissions in the English criminal justice system. First, by adopting econometric procedures designed to test between alternative forms of dynamic equilibria, it finds that there has been a steady-state growth rate in prison admissions and that unemployment growth has played an important role in determining that equilibrium. Second, by developing a behavioral model of judicial expectations, it argues that judges have used their expectations as heuristic devices for simplifying sentencing decisions and that the unanticipated changes in unemployment have played a key role in determining changes in sentencing patterns. Due to individualized sentencing practices characteristic of English judges, unemployment plays a much larger role in determining prison sentences than warranted under Anglo-American legal traditions.     

ATTRIBUTIONS,AFFECT, AND CRIME: STREET YOUTHS' REACTIONS TO UNEMPLOYMENT*

This research examines the role familial, school, labor market, and street factors play in the criminality of 200 homeless male street youths. Of particular interest is the way these youths interpret their labor market experiences and how together these experiences and interpretations influence criminal behavior. Findings reveal that familial and school factors have minimal influence on current criminal behavior. Instead, criminal behavior is influenced by such immediate factors as homelessness, drug and alcohol use, and criminal peers who engage in illegal activities. Further, criminal behavior is influenced by a lack of income, job experiences, and perceptions of a blocked opportunity structure. While labor market conditions and reactions to those conditions have some effect on crime, the findings also suggest that lengthy unemployment, job experiences, and a lack of income work in tandem with anger and external attributions to increase street youths' criminal activities.     

Unemployment and highway fatalities

We considered unemployment, an often overlooked covariate of highway fatalities, hypothesizing that (1) as unemployment rises, aggregate driving decreases, especially among the unemployed, and as driving decreases, fatalities should decrease; (2) unemployment may influence drinking--some among the unemployed may drink less due to lower incomes, while others may drink more due to stress so the net effect would be ambiguous; and (3) unemployment may increase aggregate levels of stress and unhappiness, which can result in poor concentration on driving and thus, in turn, should result in more accidents and deaths. We used data from fifty states and the District of Columbia from 1976-1980, representing 255 observations. (No prior study has as many observations or controls for as many covariates.) Using econometric models of the data, we present evidence for two of the three hypothesized effects of unemployment. We conclude that, if the number of miles driven is held constant, worsening unemployment leads to higher fatality rates, most likely due to stress effects. But because more unemployment means less driving, increases in unemployment, on balance, are associated with decreases in fatalities.     

THE STABILITY OF CRIMINAL POTENTIAL FROM CHILDHOOD TO ADULTHOOD*

This paper examines two alternative interpretations of the well-documented positive association between past and future criminal behavior. One is that prior participation has a genuine behavioral impact that increases the likelihood of future participation. The second is that there are stable, unmeasured differences in criminal potential across the population. Many general theories of crime can be interpreted as suggesting one of these interpretations. Based on an analysis of a panel data set that tracks a sample of males for over 20 years, the results suggest that the positive association is largely attributable to stable, unmeasured individual differences.     

DEBT PROBLEMS AND CRIME*

The few existing studies on the association between debt problems and crime have suggested that the two are correlated, but the causal nature and direction of this association has been unclear. By using longitudinal register data (N = 20,696) from Finland on young adults’ debt default and crime, we examine the potentially reciprocal association between debt problems and crime with both cross‐sectional and longitudinal models. Debt problems and crime have a strong association in the data, which persists after controlling for several measures of socioeconomic status. The longitudinal analyses using fixed‐effects regression models show that levels of crime are higher during periods of debt enforcement, ruling out stable between‐person heterogeneity as the sole cause. The final analysis examining the exact timing of new debt defaults and crime shows signs of a mutually reinforcing association; the rate of newly enforced debt increases in the months preceding the first crime leading to a conviction and continues to increase afterward mostly because of criminal monetary sanctions left unpaid. The conclusion of the analysis is that debt problems have a dynamic association with criminal offending. We discuss the difficult barrier that unpaid debts pose to offenders seeking to desist from criminal activity in the current Finnish context.     

Economic cycles and punishment: Unemployment and imprisonment

Research on the relations between the labor market and forms of punishment, inaugurated by Rusche, has developed along two lines, broadly speaking: first, the historical evolution of the links between the structure of the labor market and the structure of punishment and secondly, the conjunctural variations in admissions to prison and in prison populations with fluctuations in the employment situation. The present study is of the latter type. It stems from observations on two aspects of the French situation:

The concomitant long-term evolution (1875–1985) of curves for unemployment and for prison populations, given the downward trend in imprisonment rates until recent years.

The constant over-representation, among prisoners, of groups whose position on the labor market is insecure.

The link between unemployment and imprisonment was tested by multiple regression using data on economic, demographic, penal and correctional aspects (French figures, 1920–1985). The results show the participation of demographic factors in the variations in prison populations. They point to a significant correlation between variations in unemployment (in volume and rate) and the evolution of prison populations, all else being equal in terms of recorded crime. Analysis of the functioning of the criminal justice system, showing the existence of an internal subsystem characterized by its procedures — pretrial detention —, the offenses — street crime —, the sentences — imprisonment — and the social characteristics of those convicted, suggests an approach to the interpretation of these findings.     

Is Chivalry Dead?

An apparent decrease in differences between the sexes in criminal behavior and law enforcement outcomes has been attributed to changes in attitudes toward sex roles and increasing female labor force participation. The research reported here addresses two related questions in this area: (1) Have there been changes over time in sex differences in the disposition of police contacts with juveniles and adults? and (2) Do any observed changes account for increases in the female crime rate? Our analysis of data from 10,723 police contacts in a mid-western city during the period 1948–1976 found a trend toward a diminished sex difference in police dispositions of juvenile and adult misdemeanors and adult felonies. There was no evidence for a similar trend for juvenile status offenses or juvenile felonies. The findings also suggest that part of the apparent increase in female crime may be due to changes in official reactions to female offenders.     

THE SOCIAL EMBEDDEDNESS OF CRIME AND UNEMPLOYMENT*

A missing piece in the literature that links crime and unemployment is an understanding of the proximate causes of joblessness in the lives of individuals. Granovetter has demonstrated with his concept of social embeddedness that early employment contacts can enhance the prospects of getting a job and subsequent occupational mobility. The alternative implication is that youths who are embedded in criminal contexts can become isolated from the likelihood of legitimate adult employment. This has important implications for an understanding of crime and unemployment, for while much of past macro-level research confirms that unemployment leads to crime in the aggregate, the reverse is likely true at the individual level among adolescents and young adults, especially in community settings with serious crime and unemployment problems. The implications of criminal embeddedness are explored in a well-known set of London panel data. Understanding the process of embeddedness is important because it helps to identify points of intervention, such as peer and justice system contacts.     

刑事诉讼制度变迁的实践阐释

当下中国的刑事诉讼制度正在发生深刻的变化,这些变化不仅来自于多种主体的实践参与,更源于这些主体复合、交叉的作用与共同推进。这表明中国刑事诉讼制度变迁的动力机制与变革方式都与此前有很大不同。此格局的形成有着自身内在的深层逻辑。未来中国刑事诉讼制度的变迁,应在克服多种主体实践活动本身缺陷的基础上,延展成功的实践活动,发展出新的技术与方式,走出一条中国式的变迁之路。     

Measuring the Relationship Between Youth Criminal Participation and Household Economic Resources

Using data from the NLSY97, this paper re-examines the empirical relationship between household economic resources and youth criminal participation. Previous estimates of this relationship have often suggested this relationship to be quite weak or even non-existent. However, this analysis suggests that much of the strength of the relationship between household economic resources and youth criminal participation may be obscured due to non-linearities in this relationship, the fact that this relationship is isolated to crimes of a serious nature only, and especially because of measurement error with respect to measuring household economic resources. I show that adjusting for these issues substantially increases the estimated strength of this relationship. Indeed, the results in this paper show that the differences in serious criminal participation between youth from households in the upper parts of the income distribution and youth from households in the lower parts of the income distribution appear to be greater than the difference in serious criminal participation between genders.

Unemployment,Guardianship, and Weekday Residential Burglary

The absence of a consistent positive effect of the unemployment rate on the crime rate is perplexing, but it may be partly due to the countervailing effect of guardianship. Using weekly state-level data and a pooled cross-sectional time-series research design, we investigate whether the unemployment rate influences residential burglary. This study contributes to the extant literature by distinguishing between weekday residential burglaries, or those burglaries that occur between the hours of 6 am to 6 pm on weekdays, from weeknight/weekend burglaries. If unemployment increases guardianship because previously employed individuals are now at home during the workday protecting their possessions, the expectation is that the unemployment rate will have an instantaneous negative effect on residential burglaries that transpire during normal working hours. Results buttress the logic associated with the guardianship thesis in that a rise in the unemployment rate only engenders a decrease in weekday residential burglaries.     

PARTICIPATION IN CRIME PARTNERSHIPS BY FEMALE DRUG USERS: THE EFFECTS OF DOMESTIC ARRANGEMENTS,DRUG USE,AND CRIMINAL INVOLVEMENT*

Research findings on the crime patterns of women suggest that social changes in gender roles are associated with increased female criminality. Some researchers note that the increasing participation of women in established criminal organizations increases female crime levels in general, Other researchers demonstrate that involvement with deviant boyfriends or husbands in particular not only introduces women to addictive drugs, but also contributes to greater crime participation. Measures of the domestic network, crime commitment, drug use, ethnicity, and participation in vice and predatory crimes are used to focus on women's formation and participation in crime partnerships. Findings reveal that ethnicity, living with boyfriends or husbands, high levels of crime commission, particularly while carrying weapons, and participating in vice and predatory crimes are factors that are shared by a number of crime partnerships. On the other hand, having children raised by others, a history of incarceration and arrest, and opiate use are factors that are important for specific crime partnerships; therefore, these factors are unique considerations that relate to the likelihood that criminal partnerships will develop.     

DOES IMPRISONMENT ALTER THE LIFE COURSE? EVIDENCE ON CRIME AND EMPLOYMENT FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT

Ex‐prisoners consistently manifest high rates of criminal recidivism and unemployment. Existing explanations for these poor outcomes emphasize the stigmatizing effects of imprisonment on prisoners seeking postrelease employment as well as the deleterious effects of imprisonment on prisoners’ attitudes and capabilities. However, these explanations must be distinguished from selection effects in the criminal sentencing process, which also could explain some or all of these poor outcomes. To distinguish between criminogenic and selection explanations for ex‐prisoners’ postrelease experience, I analyze data from a natural experiment in which criminal cases were assigned randomly to judges with sizable sentencing disparities. Using these exogenous sentencing disparities, I produce unbiased estimates of the causal effects of imprisonment on the life course. The results of this analysis suggest that selection effects could be sufficiently large to account for prisoners’ poor postrelease outcomes because judges with large sentencing disparities in their use of imprisonment had similarly high caseload unemployment and criminal recidivism rates.     

Prison commitments,crime, and unemployment: A theoretical and empirical specification for the United States, 1933–1985

This paper examines sources for the changing commitment rates to U.S. state prisons (PCR) from 1933 to 1985 using a variety of time-series techniques. Theoretically, it resolves ambiguous interpretations of how crime, unemployment, and imprisonment are related. Hypotheses that crime and punishment are in equilibrium are rejected. Our final specification supports theories integrating institutionally endogenous and socially exogenous causes of prison use and includes feedback effects between crime and punishment. We reached several general conclusions. (1) Changes in PCR are due partly to changes in the levels of unemployment, age composition of the population, and military active-duty rates. (2) Effects of the criminal justice system, captured as autoregressive institutional drift, account for approximately half of the year-to-year fluctuations in the PCR. The contemporaneous prison discharge rate also influences the rate of prison commitments. (3) Neither the specified nor the unspecified institutional effects mediate the effects of other exogenous variables. (4) Under most simultaneous-equation specifications, the crime rate is moderately influenced by the contemporaneous unemployment rate and strongly influenced by prior levels of prison commitments. The preferred simultaneous causal model estimates a modest positive coefficient for the unemployment-crime causal path and a substantial positive coefficient for the unemployment-prison commitment causal path.     

UNEMPLOYMENT AND PROPERTY CRIME: A TARGET‐SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT OF OPPORTUNITY AND MOTIVATION AS MEDIATING FACTORS*

Most recent unemployment‐crime (U‐C) research is informed by the possibility that unemployment could both increase motivation for crime and decrease criminal opportunities. The mediating links of motivation and opportunity, though often assumed, have almost never been measured. We directly test for the potential mediating effects of opportunity and motivation using county‐level data for target‐specific crime rates such as convenience store robberies, motorcycle thefts, etc. We link these with data on the supply and value of corresponding crime targets (e.g., number and annual sales of convenience stores). Opportunity levels were generally unrelated to property crime rates and do not appear to mediate the U‐C relationship.     

Trafficking in women and children for purposes of sexual exploitation: The criminological aspect

Trafficking in women and children for purposes of sexual exploitation increases annually, generating an estimated 7 billion to 12 billion dollars a year. Although Ukraine supports international initiatives opposing trafficking and imposes criminal penalties for those responsible, only a few non-governmental organizations have been successful in searching for and rehabilitating victims. Government instability, poor public health, and high unemployment rates in Ukraine distract government resources that could be directed at the trafficking problem and reducing the hopelessness of many Ukrainian women who turn to the sex industry for work. The goal of this study was to examine legislation and law enforcement practices in Ukraine that have been unsuccessful thus far, and suggests meaningful prevention possibilities and intervention opportunities.