两岸军事安全互信机制构建问题的研究视角选择

建立两岸军事安全互信机制,是构建两岸关系和平发展框架具有战略意义的重要一环。2005年4月,国共两党领导人共同发布“两岸和平发展共同愿景”,提出“促进正式结束两岸敌对状态,达成和平协议,建构两岸关系和平稳定发展的架构,包括建立军事互信机制,避免两岸军事冲突”;     

建立两岸军事安全互信机制问题探析

建立两岸军事安全互信机制问题,是指国家统一前两岸可否以及如何以建立某种机制的方式结束或者至少缓和两岸在军事安全领域敌对状态的问题。围绕该问题,两岸以及以美国为代表的国际社会提出过各种主张。2012年是对两岸关系具有重要影响的一年,中共领导集体顺利换届,台湾、美国领导人实现连选连任。在竞选过程中马英九曾提出推动洽签两岸和平协议,但迫于反对党压力又自我设限,     

结束战争理论视野下的两岸建立军事安全互信机制问题探讨

两岸军事安全互信机制能否建立,取决于如下两个问题的解决状况：其一,两岸是否能够在政治分歧最终解决之前以建立某种机制的方式终止或至少能在相当程度上缓解两岸军事安全领域的敌对关系;其二,如果可以,相对于更为复杂的政治分歧的最终解决,两岸军事安全关系的改善可以前行多远。这两个问题的本质是：在两岸关系中军事问题与政治问题是否可以适度分开以及能在多大程度上分开;     

尽早开启政治对话协商开创两岸关系和平发展新前景

在两岸各方共同努力下,两岸关系和平发展已由开创期进入巩固深化阶段。这也意味着两岸关系同时进入了“深水区”,面临着如何突破政治瓶颈,开创新前景的问题。为此,大陆方面继在中共十八大提出了“探讨国家尚未统一特殊情况下的两岸政治关系”、“商谈建立两岸军事互信机制”、“协商达成和平协议”的努力目标和方向后…,最近,习近平总书记在会见台湾两岸共同市场基金会荣誉董事长萧万长时又郑重宣示,“着眼于长远,两岸长期存在的政治分歧问题终归要逐步解决．总不能将这些问题一代一代传下去。     

中美新型大国关系视域下的军事外交

中美建交近40年来军事外交曲折发展的事实表明,稳定健康的中美军事关系不仅有利于巩固两国的外交关系,而且有利于维护亚太地区的和平与安全。自2013年中国明确提出构建中美新型大国关系以来,虽然奥巴马政府采取"三不"态度,特朗普政府表态认同,但如何在新型大国关系框架下构建"互信、合作、不冲突、可持续"的中美新型军事关系,成为摆在中美军事外交面前的重大现实问题。中美军事外交具有波动性、互利性、不对称性和发展性等基本特征,还深受利益、意识形态、实力对比和国际战略环境等因素的制约和深刻影响。中美新型军事关系的构建既需要中美双方相向而行,也需要中方积极主动发挥作用,用新安全观引领两国军事关系的良性互动。双方要以互信和沟通为基础,依托两军在国际安全领域的合作共识,推动两军合作共赢,助力中美新型军事关系向纵深发展。     

中日韩军事安全合作的困境与出路

特殊的地缘政治关系和历史宿怨等问题，使得中日韩三国军事安全困境并未消除，甚至有所加深。制约中日韩军事安全合作深入发展的最大障碍，既有现实的领土争端问题，也有互信的缺失和国家情感与民族情绪问题，更有美国在东亚的军事同盟所造成的消极影响。而消除中日韩安全困境的途径尽管存在但难度极大，这种状况一定程度上制约了三国间军事安全合作的深入发展。但是，在全球化的背景下，三国也的确存在着共同的安全利益，只要三国能够在以中国倡导的新安全观问题上达成共识，真正拥有超越历史积怨的未来视野、超越冷战思维的战略智慧和超越自我的勇敢和自信，三国在一些关乎世界安全的重大领域中的军事合作仍然存在可能，尽管这种合作可能是有限的，但仍能为维护东亚乃至世界的和平与稳定发挥重大作用。     

中日军事安全互信亟待提升

长期以来,舆论界对中日关系的政治、经贸和文化等层面给予高度关注,而对两国在军事和安全领域的互信与合作颇有忽视。其实,后者在两国关系框架结构中的重要性绝对不可小视;对中国而言,来自日本的各种威胁认知中,军事无疑是首当其冲,因为所有两国间的历史伤痛都与军事直接关联;对日本来说,其争取“正常国家”、迈入“政治大国”的所有努力中,通过修改和平宪法等方式而在军事上突破战后体制限制,既是其计划步骤的“硬核”部分,又是其多年试探、触碰并亟待最后突破的战略“红线”。     

两岸关系和平发展制度化的路径选择

推动两岸关系和平发展制度化,既需要构建与充实科学与合理的框架内涵,也需要选择合理与可行的推进路径,这不仅关系到两岸关系和平发展的前景,而且关系到两岸关系制度化建设的成效与成败。增进两岸政治互信、建立两岸和平制度化机制与推进两岸社会一体化工程三方面,是两岸关系和平发展制度化建设的可行路径选择,至为重要。     

亚太新格局及其对两岸关系的影响之研究

自2010年以来，美国在亚太地区加紧展开各方面新的部署，美国的举措对该地区的政治、经济、军事等关系和地区格局影响重大。本文分析了美国推行“亚太再平衡”战略对亚太地区局势产生的影响，提出亚太地区正面临战争与和平、独赢与普赢、猜忌与互信的抉择。文章探讨了亚太新局对两岸关系的影响，认为两岸难以超然于亚太新格局，两岸政治、经济和军事等方面的关系更加复杂化，但在亚太地区新的矛盾冲突中，两岸可以从新的视角谋求共同出路。     

十年来的中国军事外交——回顾与展望

过去十年来,即从党的十六大到十八大期间,中国军事外交牢牢把握和运筹战略机遇期,全面贯彻中国的对外政策和国防政策,高举和平、发展、合作的旗帜,认真践行"互信、互利、平等、协作"的新安全观,围绕履行新世纪新阶段我军历史使命,为促进国家关系的全面发展,增进与各国军队间的友好合作关系,维护国家主权、安全、发展利益,促进国防和军队现代化建设,维护世界和平与稳定,发挥了独特战略作用。十年来,中国军事外交在理论与实践方面始终与时俱进,始终坚持"以和为贵"的军事外交大理念,形成了全方位、多层次和宽领域的军事外交大格局,并发展了面向世界、走向世界的军事外交大开放。随着中国改革开放和发展进入新的历史时期,中国军事外交也将在党的指引下,继续坚持"以和为贵"的军事外交理论,完善和发展既有的军事外交格局,加大对外开放力度,践行公共外交,服务于国家总体外交和中华民族的伟大复兴。     

新世纪两岸对台湾文学诠释权的争夺——以“反攻”大陆学者写的《台湾文学史》为例

某些台湾作家在新世纪对大陆学者撰写的《台湾文学史》或分类史所做的“反攻”，主要是出版《台湾新文学史》或类文学史的著作，对“台湾文学是中国文学一个组成部分”、“反共文学”是一种逝去的文学、“皇民文学”就是汉奸文学的观点作出反弹。他们从政治上和学理上清算大陆学者的台湾文学史观时，还把岛内的统派学者“捆绑”在一起．。代表人物有钟肇政、陈芳明、林瑞明、谢辉煌。     

台湾贫富分化的实像与虚像

进入转型期以来，台湾贫富分化呈现出扩大的趋势。但是检视台湾贫富分化的数据可以发现，台湾贫富差距的客观状态并不严重，相反则是台湾民众对贫富分化的感受远远超过其客观事实。台湾贫富分化这种主观感受与客观状态不匹配的状况不仅是民进党“阶级论述”中对贫富分化议题宣传操纵的结果，更重要的它还是台湾各种经济社会矛盾在台湾民众生活感受中的综合体现。因此，即使抛开政治因素，台湾贫富分化问题也值得台湾当局予以深度重视。     

美国国家安全战略的思想根源

战略观念与战略思维是影响国家战略行为的深层因素。美国在成长为超级大国的历史进程中,逐步形成了自身独特的战略安全观念与战略思维方式。综合考察战后以来尤其是冷战期间美国国家安全战略的缔造与实施过程,可以看出,美国战略安全观念与战略思维方式有几个近乎一以贯之的显著特点:立足"最坏假设",强调实力地位,保持技术优势,偏重军事手段,追求绝对安全,维持全球霸权,秉持道德普遍主义和意识形态优越论。其中,物质与精神并重,权力尤其武力手段与道德、意识形态旗帜并举,是最具美国特色的战略思想。这些思想特征构成美国安全战略的深层脉络,在战略实践中起起落落但从未销声匿迹。这些思想观念所塑造的全球战略既成就了美国的超强地位,也造成了美国霸权的困境,是理解当前和未来美国国家安全战略的重要历史与思想线索。     

Changes in surveillance of regulatory enforcement progragrammes in Singapore

In recent years Myanmar underwent drastic political changes. While many see these changes as first tentative steps towards democratization, we argue that the current political transformation is not a deliberate process of liberalization, but a survival strategy of the military regime. Using arguments of the ‘new institutionalism’ as a theoretical foundation, this article explores the hypothesis that the high degree of professionalization of the Burmese military creates the incentive to institutionalize power-sharing among the ruling elite. Our empirical analysis finds evidence for both a highly professionalized military and institutions that by securing the military's continuing dominance serve the purpose of institutionalizing military power- sharing. These results imply that further democratization is unlikely as it must be initiated from within the still dominating military itself.     

International tutelage and domestic political will: Building a new civilian police force in El Salvador

Under peace accords signed in January of 1992, a new civilian police force replaced the military as the sole agency responsible for providing internal security in El Salvador. This new institution has the potential to substantially transform the relationship of citizen and state, to improve both human rights and public safety, and, eventually, to reduce tensions in civil-military relations. Despite extensive international participation in and verification of this project, however, implementation proved difficult. Political polarization and lack of political will on the part of the government initially undercut the civilian character of the project, while the international community proved unable or unwilling to provide sufficient material assistance. Significant improvements took place under a new presidential administration, which had greater will to implement the project as designed. William Stanley is assistant professor of political science at the University of New Mexico, where he teaches international and Latin American politics. His research focuses on how domestic and international political forces interact with the institutional characteristics of military and police agencies to affect the frequency of human rights violations. His bookElite Politics, State Violence, and Civil War in El Salvador is forthcoming from Temple University Press. He has published various articles on human rights, migration and refugee affairs, and on the role of the United Nations in post-conflict peace consolidation in Central America.     

对民进党“对中政策扩大会议”的观察——兼论现阶段民进党两岸政策调整及其趋向

2014年1月9日，民进党历经半年多、9次“对中政策扩大会议”讨论形成了“2014对中政策检讨纪要”，这是该党现阶段两岸政策调整的集中体现。民进党虽然主张开放面对大陆，但仍抱持“台独”立场，对两岸交流“阻挠多开放少、防范多善意少、对抗多合作少”。在两岸关系和平发展新形势、民进党自身结构性问题、美国对台两手策略等因素的影响下，民进党两岸政策仍会继续调整，较可能的方向是走一条既不同于陈水扁也不同于马英九的“务实台独”之路。     

Humanitarian mine action and peace building: exploring the relationship

Focusing on the humanitarian mine action (hma) sector, this article argues that rooting peace building in concrete activities carries considerable promise, diversifying the repertoire and enhancing the robustness of peace building. However, the assumption that mine action necessarily contributes to building peace is problematic and permits the neglect of harmful effects and a failure to capitalise fully on the potential for positive ones. If peace building is seen in terms of three major domains—security, development and politics—the current tendency is to emphasise security primarily, development secondarily, and the political only marginally when addressing the impact of hma on peace building. Several examples indicate that mine action may have a significant impact on the political aspects of peace building, including confidence building, conflict resolution and reconciliation. At the same time, linking mine action to peace building creates certain dilemmas, and a rigid subordination of mine action initiatives to a centrally directed peace building strategy is unlikely to be productive. Ultimately, a focus on the peace building role of mine action carries a dual promise for the sector: it documents impacts that are currently unacknowledged, while encouraging new and refined practices.     

Kim Jong-il's military-first politics and beyond: Military control mechanisms and the problem of power succession

Military-first politics has been at the heart of the unexpected regime stability in North Korea under Kim Jong-il and his son Jong-un. This article analyzes Kim Jong-il’s military-first politics as a strategic choice for regime survival, in which the locus of political power switched from the party to the military. At the same time, Kim Jong-il formulated a complex system of circumventing the possibility of the armed forces' political domination, including personalistic control using sticks and carrots, fortifying security and surveillance institutions, and compartmentalizing the security institutions for intra- and inter-organizational checks and balances to prevent the emergence of organized opposition to the regime. Although an effective short-term solution, military-first politics could never be a long-term strategy for building gangseongdaeguk (a powerful and prosperous nation). The current Kim Jong-un regime needs to conduct sweeping reforms to address dire economic difficulties, which might result in a departure from his father's legacy and downgrade the military's power. In this process, the current regime's (in)stability will depend on how it maintains a balance between revoking military-first politics and preserving the armed forces' allegiance.