THE RELATIONSHIP OF POLICE AND CRIME

This study develops a model to measure the impact of police expenditure on crime rates across cities. It specifically allows for the two-way relationship between police and crime. Other things being equal, cities with more police per capita should have lower crime rates, if police reduce crime. Simultaneously, the higher the crime rate, the greater the public demand for police. In its final formations, the model contains two identifiable equations with two endogenous variables, police expenditure per capita and the crime rate. Following a discussion of the reliability of crime statistics, the model is estimated by two-stage least squares, using FBI crime data for 119 cities in 1960. These two-stage results are compared with ordinary least-square estimation results and are found to be clearly superior.     

Local politics and police strength

Numerous studies have explored variation in police employment across cities, usually focusing on public choice, conflict, or organizational explanations. Yet, few consider whether the local political context affects police employment. Recent research suggests that local politics affects criminal justice outcomes. Using insights from urban politics research, I develop testable hypotheses about the effects of local political arrangements on municipal police strength. WLS regression results suggest the value of considering local political context in models of police strength. Specifically, in a sample of 945 cities with 25,000 or more residents in 1990, net of other variables, cities with unreformed political systems (mayor‐council forms of government, district‐based city councils and partisan elections) had more police employees per 1,000 residents, and this effect varied by region. Additionally, the effect of minority populations and crime rates on police strength varied across municipal political contexts. Implications for theories of police strength are discussed.     

Social ecology and police discretion: The influence of district crime, cynicism, and workload on the vigor of police response

This study provided a partial test of Klinger's (1997) postulations on the ecological correlates of police vigor using data drawn from the Project on Policing Neighborhoods (POPN). Klinger's theory hypothesized that a form of police behavior he called vigor would vary inversely with district crime levels because officers would be more cynical of residents, view crime as normal, perceive victims as less deserving, and have less time to devote to calls in high crime districts. Although data limitations precluded a full test, the current study examined two of the four mediating variables (officer cynicism and district workload) and their influence on the crime/vigor relationship. Findings revealed variables other than those examined might mediate the effect of district crime on vigor or the relationship between district crime and vigor might be spurious. Implications for future research and theoretical development are discussed.     

Determinants of public confidence in police: An international perspective

Previous studies concerning public confidence in the police had primarily focused on demographic, attitudinal, and contextual factors in the United States. Little research, however, has used country-level variables to explain variations that exist across countries. As a result, this study examined the impact of country-level predictors (e.g., homicide rate and level of democracy) as well as individual-level predictors on public confidence in the police by utilizing data sets collected from three international surveys. Using hierarchical generalized linear modeling (HGLM) for the multinomial dependent variable, this study found a significant and negative relationship between homicide rate and public confidence in the police. People living in a country with a higher homicide rate reported lower levels of confidence in the police. Level of democracy was also found to be positively related to public confidence in the police. Of the individual-level variables, age and education were found to be significant predictors. A positive relationship was also found between political conservatism or personal satisfaction and confidence in the police. In line with attitudinal and contextual predictors, individuals with higher levels of acceptance toward deviant subcultures reported lower levels of confidence in the police. On the other hand, those who were more satisfied with their country's democratic development showed more favorable attitudes toward the police. The findings of this study implied that police organizations should put greater efforts toward the reduction of crime while protecting democratic values within a society.     

The European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics: A New Tool in Assessing Crime and Policy Issues in Comparative and Empirical Perspective

Theories which suggest a relationship between crime or criminal justice variables on the one hand, and variables related to criminal justice policies on the other hand, cannot be tested without reference to historic or comparative data. Since international comparisons offer the most powerful test of such theories, policy-related research in Europe has suffered, so far, from a lack of valid comparative data. Whether crime data from different countries are comparable, has always been subject to controversies. In the case of the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice, a network of specialists was established under the auspices of the Council of Europe in order to assess the validity of the data. Although some problems in cross-country level comparisons could not be settled, the European Sourcebook offers comparative data on 36 Member States of the Council of Europe on a variety of subjects (offences and offenders known to the police; prosecution, convictions, sentences, and corrections; survey data; and indications on manpower and budgets of police forces, prosecutors, and corrections).     

CRIME AND THE POLICE A Multivariate Analysis

In an effort to assess the correlates of the variations in the rate of crime aggregated at a city level, data are analyzed using multiple correlation analysis that includes indicators of socioeconomic and social control (police) characteristics of the cities The results indicate that the rate of police and money budgeted to police contributes little to the explained variation in rates of crime. In addition, these indicators of social control variations do not correlate with variations in clearance rates The data are interpreted in terms of their implications for public policy, evaluation of police, and deterrence theory.     

Police patrol and the deterrence of crime

A nonrecursive model of the deterrent effect of police presence was formulated and tested for 26 cities. Victimization data were employed as measures of crime, unpublished FBI data on the number of police patrol units as the measure of levels of police presence, and data for 11 exogenous variables were derived from FBI and census reports. It was found that per capita, police are a positive function of rates of violent crime and that clearance rates are a positive function of police presence. However, some offenses that have traditionally been thought to be deterrable are not inversely related to clearance rates. The equations were re-estimated using official measures of crime and found to be more consistent with the deterrent hypothesis. It is suggested that official data may generate a spurious correlation. Finally, caution is suggested in consideration of alternative forms of police presence.     

SPECIFICATION PROBLEMS,POLICE LEVELS,AND CRIME RATES*

Research on the relationship between police and crime, like many criminological topics, is subject to uncertain causal direction and omitted controls. We recommend procedures that mitigate these problems: the Granger causality test, proxies for missing variables, robustness checks, and making data available to other researchers. Because specification problems are common in the social sciences, this strategy has applicability beyond the issue of police and crime. We analyze yearly police data and UCR crime rates, at the state and city levels, pooled over two decades. We find Granger causation in both directions. The impact of crime on the number of police is slight, but the impact of police on most crime types is substantial. The latter result is more robust at the city level.     

The impact of neighborhood crime levels on police use of force: An examination at micro and meso levels

Purpose

Neighborhood contextual factors have gained a considerable amount of attention, relating neighborhood crime levels to police force. Prior research mainly examined the relationship either at the police district level or at the city level. The current study intends to investigate the relationship at lower levels of geographic aggregation.

Methods

Using Geographic Information System techniques, the current study utilized four radial buffer zones around each use of force incident location to measure the impact of neighborhood violent criminal activities at the micro level on the level of police force used. In addition, hierarchical linear modeling using neighborhood crime rates within police command areas allowed for a comparison study to measure the impact of neighborhood criminal activities at the meso level on police force.

Results

The current study found that neighborhood crime levels have a significant and positive effect of increasing the level of police force used at the micro level.

Conclusions

The current study supports the work of Black and Smith, concluding that more training and supervision are required for officers working in high crime areas.     

The police,crime, and economic theory: A replication and extension

Based on insights garnered from rational choice theory, Loftin and McDowall hypothesize that there is likely to be a reciprocal relationship, over time, within jurisdictions between police force strength and crime. Contrary to expectations, their ARIMA analyses of the association between total police force employment and the total crime rate for Detriot during the period of 1926 to 1977 produce null findings. As a result, they conclude that rational choice models are too simplistic to explain the relationship between the agency size and crime. It is our contention that this conclusion might be premature. We suggest that a failure to disaggregate total police force employment into its component sectors may be masking substantial reciprocal effects. The present investigation employs ARIMA techniques to model the reciprocal relationship between total, patrol, and detective police employment and total, property, and personal, robbery crimes in Milwaukee for the years 1930 to 1987. Consistent with previous research we report null findings between total police employment and total crime rates. However, the findings also reveal significant reciprocal relationships between the disaggregated measures of police size and crime. The implications of these results for rational choice theory are discussed.     

NEGOTIATING ORDER IN PATROL WORK: AN ECOLOGICAL THEORY OF POLICE RESPONSE TO DEVIANCE*

The recent renaissance of ecological research in criminology has brought with it a renewed interest in the relationship between crime and social control in local communities. While several researchers have noted that the police are a critical part of the community crime-control puzzle, there is very little research and no theory that addresses variation in police behavior across physical space. In an attempt to further understand police operations in local communities, this article offers a theory that explains how levels of crime and other forms of social deviance in communities affect police action. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of the theory for understanding how police behavior varies across physical space and how crime patterns develop and are sustained in local communities.     

The impact of local alcohol ordinances on official crime rates: The case of Tennessee

Past research has shown a strong link between alcohol and crime. In this study we examine the relationship between local alcohol ordinances and UCR crime rates for cities within the state of Tennessee. To assess adequately the actual relationship between crime and our alcohol availability measures, we included in the analysis a number of socioeconomic and demographic variables commonly associated with high crime rates. The results of this study suggest strongly that race, poverty, population size, and age composition provide the “best explanation” for variations in the level of criminal activity. Our findings support the hypothesis that social disorganization caused by numerous factors (especially racial and economic inequality) contribute strongly to a community's crime rate. The alcohol-related variables contribute to our understanding of the crime problem, but their impact is secondary and probably ancillary, once we have accounted for the influence of our demographic and socioeconomic variables.     

POLICE EMPLOYMENT AND SUBURBAN CRIME

Although politicians, police, and others have often advocated the expansion of police employment in the effort to control crime, the empirical relationship between police employment and crime rates has seldom been systematically explored. This study incorporates variables which are causally related both to crime and police employment roles for the 252 northern and northeastern suburbs for which police employment and crime data are available for 1970–1972. Separate analyses of violent and property crime are undertaken, incorporating data on police employment as a causally related variable along with several other determinants of crime identified in earlier studies. The analysis suggests that police employment and crime rates are reciprocally related, and that these relationships offer more support for a “labeling” than a “deterrence” perspective.     

The Relationship Between Crime Reporting and Police: Implications for the Use of Uniform Crime Reports

Empirical studies that use reported crime data to evaluate policies for reducing crime will understate the true effectiveness of these policies if crime reporting/recording behavior is also affected by the policies. For instance, when the size of the police force increases, changes in the perceived likelihood that a crime will be solved may lead a higher fraction of victimizations to be reported to the police. In this paper, three data sets are employed to measure the magnitude of this reporting bias. While each of these analyses is subject to individual criticisms, all of the approaches yield similar estimates. Reporting bias appears to be present but relatively small in magnitude: each additional officer is associated with an increase of roughly five Index crimes that previously would have gone unreported. Taking reporting bias into account makes the hiring of additional police substantially more attractive from a cost–benefit perspective but cannot explain the frequent inability of past studies to uncover a systematic negative relationship between the size of the police force and crime rates.     

POLICE REPORTS AND VICTIMIZATION SURVEY RESULTS An Empirical Study

To test the assumption that police reports cannot be used as a representative sample of all criminal events, a research study was undertaken comparing the characteristics of robberies and robbery victims derived from police offense reports in San Jose, California, to those derived from a victimization survey in the same area The result of the comparison of these two data sources disclosed that: (1) for commercial robberies there were no differences between police offense reports and victimization survey data for the characteristics which were compared; (2) for personal robberies, there were no differences for the characteristics of victim's sex and age, number of victims, victim/offender relationship, and number of offenders. The differences observed for victim's race and time of occurrence can be attributed to classification problems and methodological differences It is highly probable that the police robbery offense reports and the Victimization survey data are representative of the same population of robberies Results suggest that further evaluation of the assumption that police offense reports do not reflect the “true” nature of all (i.e., reported and unreported) crime is warranted.     

Police,Crime and the Problem of Weak Instruments: Revisiting the “More Police,Less Crime” Thesis

Objectives

A key question in the general deterrence literature has been the extent to which the police reduce crime. Definitive answers to this statement, however, are difficult to come by because while more police may reduce crime, higher crime rates may also increase police levels, by triggering the hiring of more police. One way to help overcome this problem is through the use of instrumental variables (IV). Levitt, for example, has employed instrumental variables regression procedures, using mayoral and gubernatorial election cycles and firefighter hiring as instruments for police strength, to address the potential endogeneity of police levels in structural equations of crime due to simultaneity bias.

Methods

We assess the validity and reliability of the instruments used by Levitt for police hiring using recently-developed specification tests for instruments. We apply these tests to both Levitt’s original panel dataset of 59 US cities covering the period 1970–1992 and an extended version of the panel with data through 2008.

Results

Results indicate that election cycles and firefighter hiring are “weak instruments”—weak predictors of police growth that, if used as instruments in an IV estimation, are prone to result in an unreliable estimate of the impact of police levels on crime.

Conclusions

Levitt’s preferred instruments for police levels—mayoral and gubernatorial election cycles and firefighter hiring—are weak instruments by current econometric standards and thus cannot be used to address the potential endogeneity of police in crime equations.

     

Liberal versus conservative public policies on crime: What was the comparative track record during the 1990s?

The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of social control and social support policies associated with conservative and liberal political ideologies with respect to violent crime in large U.S. cities during the 1990s. Eighty-five cities with populations of 150,000+ were included in the analysis; these cities accounted for fifty-two million urban area residents of the U.S. The use of the two-way, fixed-effect panel data method of statistical analysis enabled the authors to assess the relationship between change in local government expenditures for police and court services (social control) and expenditures on community development and park/recreation (support policy) and corresponding changes in crime rates documented within these cities. The findings indicated that expenditure on both police services and community development initiatives had significantly suppressive effects on crime in these cities during the period of the 1990s. It appeared that both conservative and liberal policies had their merits as effective countermeasures to crime.     

Racial Residential Segregation and Social Control: A Panel Study of the Variation in Police Strength Across U.S Cities, 1980–2010

Despite a great deal of theoretical and empirical attention given to racial residential segregation and its influence on a number of social problems in the United States, few scholars have examined the role that this persistent form of racial inequality plays in shaping the magnitude of formal social control efforts. Our study examines this relationship by assessing the potential influence that the isolation of minorities may have on efforts to control crime in urban centers across the United States. Using a pooled time-series regression technique well suited for the analysis of aggregate, longitudinal data, we assess the potential influence of racial segregation on the size of municipal police departments in 170 U.S. cities between 1980 and 2010. After accounting for minority group size, economic threat, crime, and disorganization, we find that racial residential segregation has a significant non-linear effect on police force size. Cities with the most racially integrated populations have the smallest police presence but at very high levels of segregation, police strength levels off. This finding is consistent with expectations derived from the contact hypothesis. Under such conditions, majority group members appear to be less inclined to demand greater crime control measures such as increased police protection. Period interactions with residential segregation also suggest that this relationship has grown stronger in each decade since 1980. Overall, our study provides strong support for threat theories and the contact hypothesis but offers necessary refinements.