Domestic–External Linkages and the Cold War in 1953 and 1989: Using International Relations Theory and Comparative Politics to Explain the End of the Cold War

Drawing on theories of international relations (IR) and comparative politics, this article explains why the cold war ended in 1989 rather than 1953. Numerous scholars have used IR theory to discuss the end of the cold war, but most of the circumstances they highlight were also present in the spring of 1953, right after the death of Joseph Stalin. This article presents three broad theoretical approaches that deal with the connection between domestic politics and international relations, and it then shows how these approaches can help us understand the similarities and differences between 1953 and 1989. In particular, the article emphasises the importance of time. In the spring of 1953, the window of opportunity was very brief—only a few months, which was insufficient for the two main cold war antagonists to overcome their deeply entrenched suspicions and make far-reaching adjustments in their policies. In the latter half of the 1980s, by contrast, the sweeping reorientation of east–west relations occurred over several years, giving policy-makers on both sides sufficient leeway to adapt and to 'learn' new ways of interacting.     

Realist Visions of the End of the Cold War: Morgenthau, Aron and Waltz

Although realist theory did not predict the end of the cold war, prominent realist scholars such as Hans Morgenthau, Raymond Aron and Kenneth Waltz did give some thought to the conditions under which the cold war might be settled. Both Aron and Morgenthau characterised the cold war as a combination of traditional power politics and ideological competition, but they differed on the relative weight of each component. For Morgenthau, a diplomatic settlement would deactivate the unsettling potential of the ideological conflict; for Aron, only the disappearance of the ideological conflict could pave the way to some lasting diplomatic settlement. For Waltz, ideology had little impact; the bipolar structure of the international system was the main variable on which both the cold war and its end depended.     

美国霸权的终结--兼评伊拉克战争对未来国际政治的影响

美国谋求单极世界霸权的企图已是一个不争的事实.它现在不仅拥有了实现这一野心的硬实力,而且似乎也具备了相应的软实力.但如果据此认为美国真的能实现它的这一梦想那又未免过于主观.本文将重点探讨有哪些现实因素将阻碍美国实现其单极霸权,以及为什么说美国的这一野心注定会失败.     

现代系统论视野下的国际政治理论

本文拟以广义系统论一般模式的构造为基础,从国际政治体系的结构和层次、国际政治体系的功能和环境、国际政治体系的稳衡和变革四个方面,对20世纪70年代以来国际关系思想史中的主要理论,加以梳理、比较和分析,进而揭示系统论对国际政治理论研究所产生的巨大影响,并彰显诸理论之间的区别和联系.最终,希望通过对科学知识之间的渗透交叉与相互借鉴关系的辨明,能够在更广阔和深远的背景下建构中国的国际关系理论研究体系.     

略论尼克松政府的越南战争政策

越南战争是美国外交史上的一次大失败。1969年1月上台的尼克松政府为了结束这场不得人心的侵略战争,采取了软硬兼施的两手政策,试图以武力为后盾,实现所谓“体面的和平”,结果却陷入了进退两难的尴尬境地,最终不得不回到谈判桌上,用和平手段来实现停战。尼克松政府的越南政策再一次证明了武力威胁的限度。     

可持续发展位:当代国际关系研究的新视角

研究视角的选择对于国际关系理论的构建具有重要的意义.在新的时代背景下,由生态位发展而来的可持续发展位可作为当代国际关系研究的新视角.可持续发展位有其特定的内涵,它与综合国力、国家权力、国家利益和国家的国际地位有着密切联系,但又存在着重大区别.可持续发展位对当代国际关系研究具有十分重要的理论意义和现实意义.     

冷战后越美经贸关系探析

冷战结束后,在经济政治利益的驱使下,越美关系逐步改善美国取消了对越南的贸易禁运,美越正式建立了外交关系,为双方经贸关系的发展奠定了基础.1997年亚洲爆发金融危机后,为了摆脱经济困境,越南积极发展同美国的经贸关系,加大力度拓展美国市场,结果越南扩大了对美国的出口,美越于2000年7月正式签署了<美越贸易协定>.     

International Norms and the End of Apartheid in South Africa

This article examines the interface in the post-World War II era between expanding global movements supporting human rights and traditional great power concerns regarding global security, and asks why an international alliance of actors mobilized to pressure the Western powers, particularly the USA, to politically isolate and economically sanction South Africa in the midst of the cold war. We argue that in the international struggle against apartheid, humanist (human rights) ideology emanating from social movements in global civil society clashed with traditional realist ideology regarding what constituted state security in the global polity. The norms of self-determination of nations and anti-racism together fueled global activism and challenged powerful Western states. Facing mass protests and lobbying efforts from citizens, democratic states across the Western world found greater security in upholding their own professed human rights principles than in maintaining close economic ties to the apartheid regime.     

国际直接投资的变化及对国际经济关系的影响

二十世纪九十年代以来 ,全球化进程加快 ,跨国直接投资对此起了较大的推动作用。跨国直接投资呈现出新的特征 ,本文分析了国际直接投资的新变化及对国际经济关系造成的影响。     

冷战后美国国防工业的重组

冷战后美国国防工业进行了重组,一方面组建了巨大的国防承包商,另一方面走军民一体化道路,并在武器装备上进行国际合作,以构建新的国防工业体系。出现这种情况的原因是多方面的,这既是冷战遗留下来的国防生产能力过剩,也是美国希望保持军事技术优势、美国国家安全观的改变和军事转型的需要,以及新军事变革的需要。美国国防工业的重组也给美国和世界带来不容忽视的影响。它在保持美国科技优势,在可预见的将来为保持美国一超独霸地位提供条件,扩大大型国防公司对国家政策影响力的同时,也给美国带来了新的安全困境。     

后冷战时代的失败国家课题

失败国家是后冷战时代世界政治中的一个突出课题 ,它对内造成了严重的人道主义灾难 ,对外则是世界和平与地区安全的重大隐患。本文对失败国家的内涵、研究价值、指向性特征、形成原因、相关的国际干预机制等等进行了初步的探讨。     

金融危机与东南亚地区国际关系的新变化

金融危机使东南亚各国面对一系列严峻挑战 ,也使该地区的国际关系发生重大而深远的变化。东盟主导东南亚地区事务的能力受到了削弱。中美日等大国的影响力增强了。尤其是美国 ,利用这次金融危机 ,得到了许多它平时得不到的东西。金融危机之后 ,东南亚地区形成了由美、日、中和东盟四足鼎立的政治经济格局。     

中国国际关系理论研究的现实思考

世纪之交 ,中国国际关系理论研究愈来愈重要。就现状而言 ,中国国际关系理论研究仍处于草创和摸索阶段 ,尽管取得了重要的进展 ,但还存在一些不尽人意之处。冷战结束后 ,中国国际关系理论研究更是面临着新的课题、新的挑战。     

The logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia,Ukraine, and the conflict in Donbas

The crisis in Ukraine since late 2013 has seen four successive internationally mediated agreements that have been at best partially implemented. Drawing on extensive fieldwork and 42 key informant interviews sides, we explain this outcome with reference to the logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia is currently unable to achieve a friendly and stable regime in Kyiv and thus hedges against the consolidation of an unfriendly pro-Western and stable regime by maintaining its control over parts of eastern Ukraine and solidifying the dependence of local regimes there on Russian support. This gives Russia the opportunity to maintain the current status quo or settle for re-integration terms through which Russia can sustain long-term influence over Ukraine’s domestic and foreign policy. We conclude by reflecting on the consequences of competitive influence-seeking in the post-Soviet space: the likely persistence of low-intensity conflict in Ukraine; the further consolidation of territorial divisions in other post-Soviet conflicts; and the need for policy-makers in Russia and the West to prioritize the management of the consequent instability.     

缅甸国内政治与对外关系现状

按照联合国宪章规定 ,非选举政府的执政期限不得超过 5年 ,但如今 1 0年过去了 ,缅甸军政府依然我行我素 ,敢冒天下之大不韪 ,拒绝和美国欧盟提出的承认 1 990年 5月大选结果并将政权移交给全国民主联盟的条件。缅甸军政府反复声称 ,它将完全按照自己的既定方式和时间表移交政权。为此 ,它致力于制订一部有力于自己的新宪法 ,一旦制宪完毕 ,将再举行新一轮选举 ,把自己 1 0年来苦心经营的政党 (联邦巩固发展协会 )推向政治舞台。尽管缅甸军政府至今仍被国际社会所遗弃 ,同东盟的关系微妙 ,但同中国的关系则是牢固的。     

Seeking Domestic Approval: Determinants of Ratification Duration in International Trade

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have proliferated rapidly since the early 1990s. The ratification of these agreements matters both economically by rendering commitments legally enforceable for outward‐oriented industries and politically by revealing the domestic‐ and international‐level factors which delay or accelerate the entry into force of a PTA. This research note investigates the institutional design and domestic political determinants of the ratification duration for 270 PTAs concluded in the post‐1990 period. The Weibull survival analysis yields two main results: First, neither domestic political constraints measured through veto players nor PTA depth affect ratification spells. Second, ratification processes become more protracted in the presence of stringent formal domestic ratification requirements as well as with a higher number of partner states. These findings suggest that trade negotiators factor in the shadow of ratification in the bargaining phase but still remain subject to formal ratification hurdles and PTA membership dynamics.     

当前反恐战争的困境及其原因分析

战争是主权国家打击恐怖主义的主要措施之一.但由于反恐战争自身的内在矛盾及其负面后果的扩大,恐怖主义兼有传统安全威胁和非传统安全威胁的双重特点,个别国家在反恐战争的目标中加入了特殊的政治和经济诉求并奉行单边主义、实用主义的外交政策等多方面的原因,冷战结束以后特别是"9·11"事件爆发以来,由主权国家发动的几场反恐战争不仅未能有效遏制住恐怖主义泛滥的趋势,而且自身也已陷入了困境.     

对外开放与经济增长:中国与印度的比较——后冷战以来绩效与分析框架

本文以对外开放之经济增长效应为主线,从三个视角切入对后冷战以来中国和印度经济进行了比较,以期提出一个比较研究框架。三个视野分别为经济增长绩效视角、对外开放视角,以及开放之增长效应机理视角。分析显示,两国经济在后冷战以来都经历了快速增长,虽然印度经济增速慢于中国,但其稳定性更高,人均国民收入与中国的差距要小于名义经济总量(GDP)的差距。在对外开放方面,中国外贸与引进外资绩效明显,而印度在服务业出口和服务业利用外资方面则略胜于中国。在开放与增长联系及效应机理方面,虽然可以利用主流经济学提出的模型,但具体到中国和印度,应根据各自特点进行具体化修改。