国际关系格局的调整与拉美对外关系的变化

随着全球化深入发展、新兴发展中大国崛起以及伊拉克战争和金融危机对美国霸权的冲击,当前国际关系格局正发生深刻的变化.     

拉丁美洲国家对外关系的变化与调整

在2009年拉美国家对外关系的变化与调整中,值得关注的问题有以下几个方面. 一美国对拉美政策的调整及美拉关系 奥巴马的政治及少数族裔背景、多边主义的主张、奉行变革外交和改善美拉关系的承诺令拉美国家对奥巴马上台后的美拉关系充满期待.     

21世纪初的国际经济关系

自２０世纪９０年代以来,国际贸易急剧增长,国际投资空前增加,跨国生产迅猛发展,全球金融交易以前所未有的速度膨胀。经济全球化、区域集团化、科技信息化迅速发展,并对２１世纪的国际经济关系产生重大影响。 一、坚持对外开放政策,积极参与经济全球化的进程 目前,世界上越来越多的国家实行对外开放,密切与国际社会的联系。 据世界贸易组织的报告,１９９４年世界商品贸易额达到４０９００亿美元,首次突破４万亿美元大关,创下近２０年来的最新记录;１９９９年全球贸易总额又达６９５００亿美元。这一事实说明,各国都把越来越多…     

东亚经济一体化的国际关系理论解读

本文在阐述东亚经济一体化现状特征的基础上,应用同盟理论、国际制度理论、小国理论等相关的国际关系理论,对一些主要国家的东亚经济一体化战略进行解读,并对东亚经济一体化发展趋势作了预测.作者指出,只有中、日、美三大国加强协调与合作,才能推进东亚经济一体化进程.     

Contemporary International Relations

About Us Contemporary International Relations (ISSN1003-3408), a policy-oriented research journal, was inspired by the need for international communication in a period of rapid Chinese development; it has been published by China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations since 1990. Originally produced as a single-paper pamphlet, in 1992 it was established as a regular monthly     

Contemporary International Relations

About Us Contemporary International Relations (ISSN1003-3408), a policy-oriented research journal, was inspired by the need for international communication in a period of rapid Chinese development; it has been published by China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations since 1990. Originally produced as a single-paper pamphlet, in     

Religion in Contemporary International Relations

Religion plays an increasingly explicit role in contemporary international politics, and the process of globalization serves to amplify its impact on international relations and domestic politics of many countries. Ever since the end of the Cold War one has seen more or less religious background against and dynamics underlying virtually all major international events,     

Sport and International Relations

As China takes center stage for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games in August, enthusiasm for the Games extends far beyond the capital city. For Chinese, the Olympics is about national pride and cultural legacy. The Chinese government hopes to make this event a morale booster for the development of the whole country. And for the world, the Olympics is not just a global sporting event, but also an important platform for promoting worm harmony and communication between cultures. As editor of Contemporary International Relations, I am mindful of the connection between sport and international relations. Sport today plays a highly significant role in the world, and the impact of this global phenomenon on international relations is often underestimated.     

国际秩序分层与新的国际关系体系 --构建中国国际关系体系的三个利益层面

21世纪任何一国所希望创建的国际关系体系,其形成都有赖于现实三重国际新秩序的发展.在和平、发展、合作基础上建立民主的国际政治新秩序是中国国际战略的目标追求.体现在现实的国际关系上,中国要从全球、地区、国家三个利益层面构建自身的国际关系体系.在全球利益层面,突出并适应安全与合作这一主题,寻求国际格局中有利于合作的共同战略利益基础,倡导建立多元文明平等、共处、合作、发展的全球秩序;在区域利益层面,着眼于地区利益关系的协调,达成地区内多个大国共同崛起的相互认同,尝试构建由地区潜力型大国或地区组织自愿推动的区域合作体系和相互依赖机制;在国家主权关系层面,重点警惕"新帝国主义"从理论到实践各方面对民族性的侵蚀,重视维护国际利益的民族性和多元性,丰富和创新以国家主权利益为支点的爱国主义,确立维护和平、保障安全、有利发展的崛起战略.     

加强东盟与中国的经济关系

序言 2002年,东盟与中国领导人签署了全面经济合作框架协议,这跨越性的一步为巩固东盟与中国之间的友好关系奠定了坚实的基础. 在此之后,东盟与中国签署了涵盖多领域的经济协议,包括货物、服务、投资贸易等.此外,几个涵盖知识产权、标准和达成一致性的谅解备忘录业已完成. 所有这些经济举措,为东盟与中国的经济发展提供了强劲的驱动力,助推作用凸显.特别是中国—东盟自由贸易协定(CAFTA),为扩大中国与东盟之间的贸易和投资提供了一个高效而广阔的平台.     

当前中日经济关系

中日经济中的互需性、互补性在不断加强.产品附加值增大、产业投向高级化、金融等非制造业企业间加强合作等,都昭示着中日经济合作关系将展现质量型推进态势.     

Strategy and Selection in International Relations

It is widely recognized that many of the samples we use for statistical analysis in international politics are the result of some selection process. Not surprisingly, selection models are becoming increasingly popular. At the same time, the role of strategic interaction has begun to play a more important role in statistical analyses. However, it has not been clear how statistical strategic models and selection models relate to each other, or what the effects are of employing one when the other is the more appropriate model. In this article, I 1) clarify why international relations scholars cannot shield themselves from selection bias simply by assuming their results are limited to a given sample; 2) show how recent statistical strategic models relate to traditional selection models and generalize the two sets of models by deriving a correlated strategic model; and 3) examine the effects of misspecifying either correlated errors or strategic interaction. My results indicate that failure to model the strategic interaction produces worse specification error than failure to account for correlated disturbances. In fact, traditional bivariate probit models appear to be superior only when states are almost completely uncertain about each others' preferences.     

当代国际关系中的文化博奕

在人类社会跨入新千年之际,国际关系错综复杂。世界形势变化多端。各国正在根据自身利益和所处环境不断制定和调整发展战略。经济、科技、军事、文化等都是其战略考虑的基本因素。在综合国力的激烈竞争中,文化因素的影响和文化力量的运用已成为不可或缺的手段。不同文化的矛盾运动对国际关系的演变产生了重大作用。     

Risk Aversion in International Relations Theory

When international relations writers use the idea of risk aversion, they either leave it undefined or cite the economics conception, that the decision-maker has a concave utility function for the goal. However, in the international context the goal is typically not money or any other objectively measurable quantity, and in this case the concept of concavity is meaningless. This article gives two definitions of risk aversion that are non-metric in the sense that they do not require such a quantity. The first, comparative risk aversion , specifies the relative degree of aversion but does not specify a zero point. The second concept, multiattribute risk aversion , does the reverse, separating risk-averters from risk-seekers in an absolute sense without making comparisons within each group. The arguments imply significant revisions of work on historical case studies using prospect theory and Fearon's categorization of rationalist explanations for war. It indicates that countries might be unable to negotiate their way out of a war because certain kinds of disputes, especially those over symbols or religious places, often generate risk-seeking behavior.     

美国国际战略和国际关系研究中心

美国国际战略和国际关系研究中心于1 962年成立,是现在美国国内规模最大的国际问题研究机构,总部设在华盛顿。该研究中心是一个非党派、非政府的民间国际问题研究机构和免税组织。40多年来,国际战略和国际关系研究中心一直以宣传世界各国领导人关于现实中的重大国际问题和对未来的全球性问题的战略观点和政治决策为工作重点。该研究中心与很多国家的政要保持着密切的接触,与世界各国的3 0多个知名研究所有项目合作。国际战略和国际关系研究中心的研究成果受到世界各国的重视,尤其是美国国会十分看重国际战略和国际关系研究中心的研究能力,认…     

Domestic Politics and International Relations

In reviewing the history of portions of international studies I reflect on how we might best advance knowledge. I dwell on two issues: questions of method and the urgency of refocusing our efforts on leaders and domestic affairs as the centerpiece for understanding the world of international relations. I argue that scientific progress is best made by combining three methodological approaches in our research: formal, mathematical logic to ensure internal consistency in arguments about complex and contingent relations among variables; case studies and archival research to evaluate verisimilitude between theory and action; and statistical analysis to establish the generality of the hypothesized relations among variables. Often such methodologically diverse and progressive research will best be accomplished by encouraging collaboration rather than by perpetuating the current norm of penalizing co-authorship especially among junior scholars. I offer concrete examples of advances in knowledge achieved through the employment of mathematical reasoning and statistical analysis as many have cast doubts about the substantive contributions of these particular approaches. My perspective is, of course, personal and may not be shared by many others. I set out my thoughts, therefore, with the hope that they will stimulate constructive debate and dialogue and that they will serve to integrate diverse approaches to international affairs.