A METHODOLOGICAL ADDITION TO THE CROSS‐NATIONAL EMPIRICAL LITERATURE ON SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND HOMICIDE: A FIRST TEST OF THE POVERTY‐HOMICIDE THESIS*

Dozens of cross‐national studies of homicide have been published in the last three decades. Although nearly all these studies test for an association between inequality and homicide, no studies test for a poverty—homicide association. This absence is disconcerting given that poverty is one of the most consistent predictors of area homicide rates in the abundant empirical literature on social structure and homicide in the United States. Using a sample that coincides closely with similar recent studies, applying a proxy for poverty (infant mortality) that is commonly employed in noncriminological cross‐national research, and controlling for several common covariates (including inequality), this study provides the first test of the poverty—homicide hypothesis at the cross‐national level. The results reveal a positive and significant association between a nation's level of poverty and its homicide rate. The findings also suggest that we may need to reassess the strong conclusions about an inequality—homicide association drawn from prior studies, as this relationship disappears when poverty is included in the model.     

Homicide-suicide (dyadic death), homicide, and firearms use in England and Wales

Homicide-suicide forms a distinct form of homicide. An analysis of cases in the Yorkshire and Humberside region of England between 1991 and 2005 revealed 37 episodes with 42 victims. Previous studies have shown a high rate of use of firearms. Over the last 2 decades firearms legislation has become more restrictive. In this study all assailants were male, mean age 46.8 years. The commonest method of homicide was strangulation (36%) with 16% killed by firearms. This is a reduction compared with a previous study in the same region. All killers who shot their victims killed themselves with firearms. There were no multiple killings with firearms in this study and no stranger killings. Hanging was the commonest method of suicide. During the same period the use of firearms as a method of homicide increased in England and Wales with handguns, the most common weapon. Nationally, suicide after homicide has remained at a similar rate over the half century and is an uncommon phenomenon. Firearms use remains low in both homicide and homicide-suicide episodes in England, and further analysis is required to determine changes in patterns of killing.     

An Assessment of the Quality of Homicide Data in the Supplementary Homicide Reports: A Research Note

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)’s Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) is a national-level incident-based data clearinghouse for homicide events in the USA used in countless research studies to track homicide trends, test theory, and analyze policy. Despite its wide use, the SHR has well-known limitations. This research note examines the accuracy of the information in the SHR by comparing homicide cases in Newark, New Jersey with their respective data to determine the level of disagreement between the data sources, which variables exhibit the greatest disagreement, and the case-related variables related to the disagreement. Uniquely, we do this for cases where offenders are known in the SHR. Our findings suggest that variables such as victim-offender relationship and circumstance have high disagreement even when the SHR reports an offender, and that the most important covariate of this is time to close the homicide investigation with an arrest. Research implications of the results are discussed.     

American Terrorism and Extremist Crime Data Sources and Selectivity Bias: An Investigation Focusing on Homicide Events Committed by Far-Right Extremists

This paper examines the reliability of the methods used to capture homicide events committed by far-right extremists in a number of open source terrorism data sources. Although the number of research studies that use open source data to examine terrorism has grown dramatically in the last 10 years, there has yet to be a study that examines issues related to selectivity bias. After reviewing limitations of existing terrorism studies and the major sources of data on terrorism and violent extremist criminal activity, we compare the estimates of these homicide events from 10 sources used to create the United States Extremist Crime Database (ECDB). We document incidents that sources either incorrectly exclude or include based upon their inclusion criteria. We use a “catchment-re-catchment” analysis and find that the inclusion of additional sources result in decreasing numbers of target events not identified in previous sources and a steadily increasing number of events that were identified in any of the previous data sources. This finding indicates that collectively the sources are approaching capturing the universe of eligible events. Next, we assess the effects of procedural differences on these estimates. We find considerable variation in the number of events captured by sources. Sources include some events that are contrary to their inclusion criteria and exclude others that meet their criteria. Importantly, though, the attributes of victim, suspect, and incident characteristics are generally similar across data source. This finding supports the notion that scholars using open-source data are using data that is representative of the larger universe they are interested in. The implications for terrorism and open source research are discussed.     

Extent, trends, and perpetrators of prostitution-related homicide in the United States

Prostitute women have the highest homicide victimization rate of any set of women ever studied. We analyzed nine diverse homicide data sets to examine the extent, trends, and perpetrators of prostitution-related homicide in the United States. Most data sources substantially under-ascertained prostitute homicides. As estimated from a conservative capture-recapture analysis, 2.7% of female homicide victims in the United States between 1982 and 2000 were prostitutes. Frequencies of recorded prostitute and client homicides increased substantially in the late 1980s and early 1990s; nearly all of the few observed pimp homicides occurred before the late 1980s. These trends may be linked to the rise of crack cocaine use. Prostitutes were killed primarily by clients, clients were killed mainly by prostitutes, and pimps were killed predominantly by pimps. Another conservative estimate suggests that serial killers accounted for 35% of prostitute homicides. Proactive surveillance of, and evidence collection from, clients and prostitutes might enhance the investigation of prostitution-related homicide.     

Childhood Fatalities in New Mexico: Medical Examiner‐Investigated Cases, 2000–2010

To better understand risk factors and populations at risk of childhood fatalities, a review of all records of childhood deaths (≤19 years) between 2000 and 2010 from New Mexico's statewide medical examiner was conducted. Annually, 313–383 childhood deaths were investigated (3820 total). Males and American Indians were overrepresented (62% and 20.4% of deaths, respectively). The most common manner of death was natural (44.8%), followed by accidental (31.4%), homicide (8.8%), suicide (8.8%), and undetermined (4.1%). Infants under 1 year of age accounted for 41.4% of deaths. Motor vehicle crashes were responsible for the majority of accidental deaths (69%), followed by unintentional overdoses (6.9%), and drowning (5.3%). Gunshot wounds, either intentional or unintentional, caused 10.7% of childhood deaths. Complete medico‐legal investigation of childhood fatalities is needed to provide public health agencies with adequate data to evaluate and prevent childhood deaths.     

Do homicide rates increase during weekends and national holidays?

In the UK there has been limited research examining temporal patterns of homicide. To our knowledge, no studies have linked patterns of homicide to the mental health characteristics of the perpetrator. The study examined a national consecutive case series of homicide offences committed between January 1996 and December 2015 in England. Clinical data were collected by the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health (NCISH). During this period 10,563 people committed a homicide. The offences were more likely to occur at the weekend, mostly on a Saturday. Weekend homicides were associated with: perpetrators under the age of 25, males and alcohol consumption. Homicides increased markedly on New Year’s Day, and public holidays. Those with a history of mental illness more commonly committed homicide during weekdays, suggesting a different pattern of offending. No change in pattern was found after licensing hours were extended in 2005 to allow 24-h licencing for the sale of alcohol. A public health approach should focus on educating young people on the health risks associated with alcohol, promoting responsible drinking and conflict avoidance, specifically on special events and at weekends.     

Structural correlates of female homicide: A cross-national analysis

The present study went beyond previous cross-national homicide research, which has largely focused on combined (male and female) rates of homicide offending, by using gender-disaggregated homicide arrest figures. The study included controls for the clearance rate and the percentage of homicides that were attempts, and included data for forty-eight countries across multiple levels of development. The author compared the effects of development/modernization and opportunity on female homicide rates to their effects on male homicide rates. Results indicated that, overall, structural predictors had very similar effects on male and female homicide rates. Both rates were lower in countries with a higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and neither male nor female homicide rates were related to urbanization. Countries with a higher number of people per household had a lower rate of both male and female homicide offending; however, this relationship only held when percent young was excluded from the model.     

Homicide as Infectious Disease: Using Public Health Methods to Investigate the Diffusion of Homicide

This study examined the spatial and temporal movement of homicide in Newark, New Jersey from January 1982 through September 2008. We hypothesized that homicide would diffuse in a similar process to an infectious disease with firearms and gangs operating as the infectious agents. A total of 2,366 homicide incidents were analyzed using SaTScan v.9.0, a cluster detection software. The results revealed spatio-temporal patterns of expansion diffusion: overall, firearm and gang homicide clusters in Newark evolved from a common area in the center of the city and spread southward and westward over the course of two decades. This pattern of movement has implications in regards to the susceptibility of populations to homicide, particularly because northern and eastern Newark remained largely immune to homicide clusters. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings, as well as recommendations for future research, are discussed.     

Homicide Followed by Suicide in Finland: Trend and Social Locus

In the early 1960s, 15% of Finnish homicide offenders committed suicide after the crime. In 1998–2000, this ratio was 6%. The downward trend was due to the increase in non-suicidal homicide, as well as to a substantial decrease in the general homicide-suicide rate. Over the time span, the rate of suicidal homicide offenders per 100,000 population was halved. The decrease took place in the two most significant homicide-suicide types (that is, those of intimate-partner homicides and parent-child killings) and, within these crime types, in crimes committed by men. The present article describes the prevalence and trend of homicide-suicide in Finland, and examines the socio-economic correlates of this phenomenon. The findings indicate that the percentage and the rate of homicide-suicide have been consistently highest among middle classes and lowest among the unemployed and working classes. Victim-offender relationship, stressful life events, and alcohol consumption are discussed as explanations for this stable social difference.     

The Effect of Previous Traumatic Injury on Homicide Risk

Research has reported that a strong risk factor for traumatic injury is having a previous injury (i.e., recidivism). To date, the only study examining the relationship between recidivism and homicide reported strong associations, but was limited by possible selection bias. The current matched case–control study utilized coroner's data from 2004 to 2008. Subjects were linked to trauma registry data to determine whether the person had a previous traumatic injury. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for the association between homicide and recidivism. Homicide risk was increased for those having a previous traumatic injury (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.09–2.99) or a previous intentional injury (OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.24–5.17). These results suggest an association between homicide and injury recidivism, and that trauma centers may be an effective setting for screening individuals for secondary prevention efforts of homicide through violence prevention programs.     

Homicide Rates in Lithuania

Homicide rate in Lithuania between 2004 and 2013 decreased and reached an average of 6.7 per 100,000 people in 2013. The data regarding forensic autopsies of intentional homicide victims were obtained from the State Forensic Medicine Service. Spearman's correlation test was used to assess trends in the homicide rates. A significant correlation was observed between homicide distribution and the following variables: Lithuania's gross domestic product (r = ?0.85, p = 0.003), the number of alcohol intoxication cases of victims (r = 0.97, p < 0.05). After regression model adjustments, these variables remained significantly associated with the homicide distribution (p < 0.05). 73% of victims were men, with a mean age of 45.5 ± 15. Alcohol intoxication was present in 58% of victims. 66% of homicides were carried out indoors, 57% in urban area. The presented findings help decide which prevention programs may be the most effective in homicide rate reduction.     

Drug and alcohol use as determinants of New York City homicide trends from 1990 to 1998

In this population-level study, we analyzed how well changes in drug and alcohol use among homicide victims explained declining homicide rates in New York City between 1990 and 1998. Victim demographics, cause of death, and toxicology were obtained for all homicide (N = 12573) and accidental death victims (N = 6351) between 1990 and 1998 from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner of New York (OCME). The proportion of homicide and accident decedents positive for cocaine fell between 1990 and 1998 (13% and 9% respectively); the proportion of homicide and accident decedents positive for opiates and/or alcohol did not change significantly. Changing patterns of drug and alcohol use by homicide victims were comparable to changing patterns of drug and alcohol use in accident victims, suggesting that changes in drug and alcohol use among homicide victims between 1990 and 1998 cannot solely explain the decline in NYC homicide rates.     

Aging and homicide rates

There are no published studies concerning the effect of mortality rate on the rate of homicide by habitually violent offenders. On the basis of nation-wide statistics in Finland, the frequency of homicide is 61% lower among 50-year old males than among 30-year old males. However, when the 4.9-fold mortality of habitually violent offenders is taken into account, the homicide rate is only 43% lower among 50-year old males than among 30-year old males. This is an important issue in forensic psychiatry and that requires further attention, as age is used a predictive factor when assessing the risk of violent behavior.     

POLICING,DRUGS, AND THE HOMICIDE DECLINE IN NEW YORK CITY IN THE 1990s*

This research reassesses the role of policing and drugs in the sharp homicide decline in New York City in the 1990s. Drawing on theoretical arguments about “broken windows” policing and lethal violence associated with the diffusion of crack cocaine, we estimate the effects of measures of misdemeanor arrests and cocaine prevalence on homicide rates with pooled, cross‐sectional time‐series data for 74 New York City precincts over the 1990–1999 period. The results of mixed regression models reveal a significant negative effect of changes in misdemeanor arrests and a significant positive effect of changes in cocaine prevalence on changes in total homicide rates. Additional analyses of homicide disaggregated by weapon indicate that the effects of misdemeanor arrests and cocaine prevalence emerge for gun‐related but not for non‐gun‐related homicides. Overall, the research generally supports influential interpretations of the homicide decline in New York City but also raises questions about underlying mechanisms that warrant more inquiry in future research.     

Female murderers in a southern city, 1975–1992

A study of a population of 36 females arrested for homicide in a southern, nonurban city from 1975 to 1992 was conducted using both qualitative and quantitative data. The study explored the demographic, social, legal, and offense characteristics of female homicide offenders as well as events leading to the murder. The profile of female homicide offenders in a southern, non-urban setting that emerged from this study is supportive of earlier studies focusing on female homicide offenders in large urban areas.     

National case-control study of homicide offending and methamphetamine use

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between methamphetamine use and homicide. To carry out this study, data from the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse and Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities were combined to create a case-control design. The main exposure measure is methamphetamine use and the main outcome measure is homicide. Results suggest that the odds of committing a homicide are nearly 9 times greater for an individual who uses methamphetamine. More importantly, the association between methamphetamine use and homicide persists even after adjusting for alternative drug use (i.e., alcohol, heroin, crack, cocaine, PCP, LSD), sex, race, income, age, marital status, previous arrests, military experience, and education level. Methamphetamine was the only drug use variable that was strongly correlated with homicide. These results support recent clinical studies that suggest methamphetamine use is different than other drug use in its effects on violence.     

Murder-suicides involving children: a 29-year study

Review was undertaken from February 1969 to January 1998 at the State forensic science center (Forensic Science) in Adelaide, South Australia, of all cases of murder-suicide involving children <16 years of age. A total of 13 separate cases were identified involving 30 victims, all of whom were related to the perpetrators. There were 7 male and 6 female perpetrators (age range, 23-41 years; average, 31 years) consisting of 6 mothers, 6 father/husbands, and 1 uncle/son-in-law. The 30 victims consisted of 11 daughters, 11 sons, 1 niece, 1 mother-in-law, and 6 wives of the assailants. The 23 children were aged from 10 months to 15 years (average, 6.0 years). The 6 mothers murdered 9 children and no spouses, with 3 child survivors. The 6 fathers murdered 13 children and 6 wives, with 1 child survivor. This study has demonstrated a higher percentage of female perpetrators than other studies of murder-suicide. The methods of homicide and suicide used were generally less violent among the female perpetrators compared with male perpetrators. Fathers killed not only their children but also their wives, whereas mothers murdered only their children. These results suggest differences between murder-suicides that involve children and adult-only cases, and between cases in which the mother rather than the father is the perpetrator.     

Homicide and suicide by aircraft

A report of simultaneous homicide and suicide by aircraft is presented. This confirms the view of Phillips (Science, 201 (1978) 748–750), that despite the previous absence of similar reports in the history of civil aviation, such incidents may occur, and that therefore murder and suicide should be considered as a possible cause of aircraft accidents.     

A Comparative Study of Children and Adult Homicide Rates in the USA and the Major Western Countries 1974–1999: Grounds for Concern?

The aim of this study is to examine the changing patterns of child homicide in the USA and the other 9 major Western countries between 1974 and 1999. On the basis of standardized WHO mortality data, 5-year mean rates of Baby (<1 year), Infant (1–4), Child (5–14), and General Population Rates for Homicide (GPRH) were analyzed for 1974–78 and 1995–99 for the USA and major Western countries. The analysis provided ratios of change for children's homicide between 1974 and 1999 and ratio of ratios between adult' and children's homicide. Over the period USA male Baby homicide rose by 78% and Females 44% with a combined rise in All Children [0–14] homicides of 45%, within the context of a declining adult GPRH. In the 1970s, 3 major Western countries had either higher or similar children's homicide rates to the USA, but by the late 1990s none did. Moreover, between 1974 and 1999, the USA had the biggest rise in Baby (<1) and All Children's deaths, and only France had substantial increases, whereas Baby homicide rates fell significantly in 6 other countries. The findings indicate a worrying deterioration in U.S. child homicides. Possible links with child abuse and explanations for the results are briefly discussed. Urgent case-specific research is required to determine the cause/s for and how to reverse the worsening child homicide situation in the USA.