Stability in Syria: What Would it Take to Make it Happen?

The Syrian Civil War has taken a devastating toll on the country's civilian infrastructure and population. Tackling the legacy of the conflict and restoring a measure of stability will constitute a monumental and generational challenge. The article addresses the “day after” in Syria by mapping out the main issues that a future post-conflict recovery, reconstruction, and reconciliation process would need to address in order to attain some level of stability and to be sustainable. It then describes and analyzes one of the most complex challenges of a future post-war transition, namely the need to reign in the proliferation of non-state armed groups and to ensure a process of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of former combatants, including those hailing from the jihadi camp. Finally, the article briefly addresses the role that local actors can play in beginning to build stability.The views expressed here are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect her employer's position. This article is part of a special project conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, titled: “After the Caliphate: Reassessing the Jihadi Threat and Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent,” which includes a book, a thematic issue of Orbis: FPRI's Journal of World Affairs (Summer 2018), and a series of podcasts. Each element of the project can be found here: https://www.fpri.org/research/after-the-caliphate-project/.     

The Neglected Sex: The Jihadis’ Exclusion of Women From Jihad

The ideological literature of jihad excludes women from combat, even though the classical doctrine of defensive jihad (jihad al-daf’) that jihadis invoke stipulates that all Muslims—men, women, children, and slaves—have an obligation to go out to fight (fard ‘ayn) in defense of their territory and their faith. Thus, the validity of the doctrine of defensive jihad is inherently linked to its universal application to all Muslims. Jihadi ideologues and leaders, however, have either purposely refrained from calling on women to make their presence felt on the battlefield as warriors or have explicitly excluded them. This article is an investigation into this lacuna in jihadi ideology. It addresses a dimension that is hardly, if ever, discussed in the academic literature, namely the jihadis’ exclusion of women from combat. This exclusion represents a gaping hole in jihadi ideology and undermines the validity of the jihadis’ defensive jihad.     

Immunizing Iraq Against al-Qaeda 3.0

Iraq still faces the same economic challenges that contributed to the rise of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. And unless these challenges are resolved, the likelihood of future political stability is low. The extremely high level of unemployment and underemployment among Iraq's youth, combined with massive corruption, is contributing to widespread poverty and radicalization. The Iraqi government's efforts to deal with these challenges are hamstrung by the expectation that current low oil prices will continue for a decade or more. These obstacles will constrain state-led development efforts severely. Iraq needs to execute successfully anti-corruption and pro-youth employment strategies that draw on the experience of other states, but are crafted to meet Iraq's unique conditions.This article is part of a special project conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, titled: “After the Caliphate: Reassessing the Jihadi Threat and Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent,” which includes a book, a thematic issue of Orbis: FPRI's Journal of World Affairs (Summer 2018), and a series of podcasts. Each element of the project can be found here: https://www.fpri.org/research/after-the-caliphate-project/.     

A More Forward Role for the Gulf States? Combatting Terrorism at Home and Abroad

Though a vast coalition of some 75 countries has retaken much of the territory once comprising ISIS's Caliphate, the threat to the Fertile Crescent is far from over. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and a number of the other Gulf States represent a few of the many regional and global stakeholders currently engaged in this arena in the name of stability and other more personal interests. This article will explore the motivations, capabilities, and activities of the Gulf States vis-à-vis ISIS, the Fertile Crescent, and the larger threat that groups like ISIS represent more broadly.This article is part of a special project conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, titled: “After the Caliphate: Reassessing the Jihadi Threat and Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent,” which includes a book, a thematic issue of Orbis: FPRI's Journal of World Affairs (Summer 2018), and a series of podcasts. Each element of the project can be found here: https://www.fpri.org/research/after-the-caliphate-project/. The author is the Project Lead.     

Reading jihad: Mapping the shifting themes of Inspire magazine

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s Inspire magazine has received attention within Western academia and media for its role in inspiring and instructing a series of homegrown terrorist attacks. Reporting on the magazine often characterises it as a Western-centric instrument of jihadi discourse. This characterisation, while broadly accurate, is in need of refinement. Using a modified version of Jennifer Attride-Stirling’s method of thematic network analysis, this research visualises and analyses the narrative themes contained within fourteen issues of Inspire magazine. It demonstrates that the magazine’s narrative extends well beyond the Western world. In reality, Inspire’s themes centre not only on the West and its Muslim populations, but on local politics and broader religious issues. The magazine’s thematic focus has also shifted over time—particularly in response to (a) political volatility in the Middle East and North Africa, (b) the killing of prominent jihadists, and (c) the execution of successful individual jihad operations. Throughout these periods of change, Inspire struggled to maintain focus on its anti-Western narrative and proved easily distracted by local issues and the “martyrdom” of Al Qaeda leaders. Understanding Inspire’s thematic landscape and its shifting character prove important in understanding and responding effectively to its jihadi discourse.     

Assessing the Future Threat: ISIS's Virtual Caliphate

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria's (ISIS) Virtual Caliphate shows no signs of diminishment. With the group's loss of territory and with social media platforms increasingly policed, Telegram, a messaging application, remains ISIS's key platform for disseminating propaganda and recruiting new members. Telegram's security features, cross-platform construction, and secret chat option offer a secure environment for interaction between ISIS and its supporters. On Telegram, ISIS manipulates an environment rich with addictive properties, creating online spaces that encourage group identity, shared opinions, and dominant ideologies, while exploiting an individual's need to be a part of the group. This research investigates how Telegram is used by ISIS and its supporters and assesses what kind of threat the use of Telegram poses for the future.The research is supported in part by the Office of Naval Research “Documenting the Virtual Caliphate” #N00014-16-1-3174. All opinions are exclusively those of the authors and do not represent the Department of Defense or the Navy. This article is part of a special project conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, titled: “After the Caliphate: Reassessing the Jihadi Threat and Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent,” which includes a book, a thematic issue of Orbis: FPRI's Journal of World Affairs (Summer 2018), and a series of podcasts. Each element of the project can be found here: https://www.fpri.org/research/after-the-caliphate-project/.     

WorldWideWhale.Globalisation/Dialogue of Cultures?

This article questions the assumption that globalisation has fostered cultural dialogue. In order to understand how globalisation has specifically impacted the sphere of the cultural, it starts by examining the way cultural practises are transformed in its wake. Does globalisation yield new, global forms of culture? To address this conundrum, this article takes the example of a cultural movement that has sought to project itself on a global scale, the anti-whaling culture, exploring both its origins and the distinctive cultural forms it has constituted. It then raises anew the question of dialogue: what of the dialogue between this global anti-whaling movement and local cultures where whaling still occurs? And how does such 'global culture' negotiate with demands for cultural diversity?     

The Evolution of Jihadist Terrorism in Morocco

Over the last few years, Moroccans have been disproportionately involved in jihadist terrorism. Morocco has been increasingly identified as one of the largest producers of terrorists and insurgents in Afghanistan, Iraq, and throughout Europe. This article examines the factors behind the emergence of jihadist terrorism in Morocco, and how this terrorist threat has gone beyond this country's borders. Three factors have contributed to this development: the influence of global jihad on potential Moroccan jihadists; the growing Islamization of the country; and deteriorating socioeconomic conditions. In analyzing these variables, special attention will be paid to the Casablanca terrorist attacks on May 16, 2003, marking the debut of suicide terrorism in Morocco. The article will also examine the principal counterterrorist initiatives Morocco has implemented in response to this threat.     

Transnational Islamist Networks: Western Fighters in Afghanistan,Somalia and Syria

Abstract

Western Muslims have joined jihadi groups in Afghanistan/Pakistan, Somalia and Syria to defend Islam from its perceived enemies. Transnational Islamist networks have played a pivotal role in bringing them to conflict zones by fulfilling three functions: radicalisation through mosques, radical preachers, and the Internet; recruitment which can be conducted either physically or digitally; and identity formation that provides the radicalised recruits with a larger cause to fight for as members of an imagined global community. Transnational Islamist networks are multifunctional entities on the rise.     

Kill,Capture, or Defend? The Effectiveness of Specific and General Counterterrorism Tactics Against the Global Threats of the Post-9/11 Era

This article examines the effectiveness of contemporary counterterrorism strategy in the global fight against terrorism from 2001 to 2011. We seek to maximize the comparative approach more than most existing studies by examining three tactics (killing, capturing, and defending) applied at three scopes (leader, operational, and broad) on three levels (global, movement [jihadi], and organizational [al-Qaeda and Taliban]), while also measuring effectiveness along several quantitative, qualitative, and spatial dimensions. Drawing from resource theory (and its derived analytical approaches) and empirical terrorism studies, we formulate competing hypotheses that are quantitatively tested using a dataset with several original aspects. We find that both killing and capturing can have large effects but these effects vary based on both states' and terrorists' targeting strategies. The most interesting specific findings are that drone strikes seem counterproductive for counterterrorism while renditions seem effective. However, these effects were dwarfed by those of increased defenses, which reduce attacks in the West while redirecting them to other areas in the world. While we find the theory mostly sound, though in need of refocus, we believe current policy trends foretell an increase in terrorist activity in the coming years.     

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Framing Narratives and Prescriptions

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has positioned itself at the vanguard of a media revolution in which terrorist groups both create and frame news events to an unprecedented extent. Through the publication of its e-magazine Sada al-Malahim (The Echo of Epic Battles), the organization has sought to mobilize both Yemeni and non-Yemeni Muslim, Arabic-speaking audiences to carry out violent jihad. This article utilizes the concept of collective action frames to analyze Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's media output, identifying the organization's grievance narratives, ideological justifications for violent actions, and means to strengthen its credibility among its intended audiences.     

NATO,ballistic missile defense and the future of US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe

Abstract

Within the next few years, NATO will need to make a collective decision about the future of US tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) in Europe. While opinion about the value of these weapons is not as split as conventional wisdom might suggest, and while NATO will remain a nuclear alliance irrespective of this decision, balancing politics and strategy looks likely to be a difficult task. This decision is made far more complex by the determination of NATO officials to link the withdrawal of these weapons to reciprocal reductions in Russian TNW in Europe, and by the possibility of substituting the key strategic and political link they provide with a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system. This article shows how we have arrived at this position, highlights the potential benefits to NATO Europe of BMD, and considers the key questions that the Alliance will face in achieving this. Ultimately, this article shows how the future of TNW in Europe is likely to be linked to whether NATO values arms cuts with Russia, or the deployment of missile defenses, as its central priority.     

Brides,black widows and baby-makers; or not: an analysis of the portrayal of women in English-language jihadi magazine image content

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the depiction of women in image content from 39 issues of official English-language magazine publications produced by designated terrorist organisations that follow a jihadist ideology. Research on the role of women in jihadi organisations has found that women are active at all levels within terrorist groups. This includes creating and disseminating terrorist content; planning, co-ordinating and carrying out attacks; and, supporting fighters as wives, mothers and homemakers. Our analysis, however, found that women are almost never depicted within the images of terrorist organisations’ official magazines. We argue that this airbrushing is a deliberate attempt to reinforce traditional gender roles and strengthen existing gender hierarchies within terrorist organisations, and we make a number of suggestions for future research in this understudied field.     

Fusing the international system: Notes on regional and global integration processes

The relationship between regional integration and global integration is rarely attempted by scholars perhaps because the former appears to have had little impact upon the latter. Those who do examine the theoretical aspects of the relationship are inclined to argue that regional integration is dysfunctional for global integration because it may lead to interregional conflict. There is also the argument that the more unified regions become the more likely will there arise a lack of interest in global collaboration. On the other hand it is possible that in the next twenty‐five to fifty years an array of regionally unified blocs could function cooperatively on the basis of a system of regional coexistence supported by inter‐regional nuclear deterrence. This may not promote global integration but it could contribute to a semblance of order in a future global system.     

Iran's Hezbollah Model in Iraq and Syria: Fait Accompli?

This essay argues the wars in Iraq and Syria are not over. Iran has used the war against the Islamic State, and, more generally, the instability in Iraq and Syria, to successfully spread and legitimize its influence. If the U.S. intends to challenge Iran's influence in Syria and Iraq, it needs to demonstrate its long-term commitment to its local partners, and it needs to work with its partners to secure and stabilize eastern Syria and western Iraq. Countering Iran's influence in Iraq and Syria is a long-term project, and creating viable alternatives to Iranian influence in Damascus and Baghdad is the best way to prevent them from becoming long-term Iranian dependencies.This article is part of a special project conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, titled: “After the Caliphate: Reassessing the Jihadi Threat and Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent,” which includes a book, a thematic issue of Orbis: FPRI's Journal of World Affairs (Summer 2018), and a series of podcasts. Each element of the project can be found here: https://www.fpri.org/research/after-the-caliphate-project/.     

Identity,Individualism, and Activism beyond the State: Examining the Impacts of Global Citizenship

The concept of global citizenship has risen to prominence through its use by policy makers, activists, and scholars, who employ the idea of global interconnectedness to encourage individuals to actively engage with transnational issues. Proponents of global citizenship claim that it will promote greater global unity and equality of rights, and even generate a new, post-national identity. Yet self-professed global citizens operate in a transnational realm marked by extreme disparities in power between the members of different states and economic classes. This article assesses whether global citizenship can live up to the claims of its adherents, or whether it will replicate the existing inequalities and moral hazard currently manifest in global policy-making. The article uses the work of T.H. Marshall to identify the conditions under which citizenship has generated equality and unity in the national realm and examines whether these conditions are present beyond the state. It then compares the resulting theory with global citizenship's observed impacts in transnational activism. It concludes that unity and equality of rights cannot be achieved globally in the absence of a commonly shared pool of social and economic resources and that, ironically, global citizenship may worsen existing power imbalances by legitimating elites' use of power.     

Rebel's dilemma: The changing relationship between the IRA,Sinn Féin and paramilitary vigilantism in Northern Ireland

The 40‐month period which has followed the introduction of the IRA's 1994 cease‐fire has witnessed the most intensive vigilante campaign ever carried out by the movement. A commitment to vigilantism has profoundly affected the evolution of both the policy and structure of Sinn Féin and the IRA. However, vigilantism bears costs for the two organizations and several serious attempts have been made by senior figures to end the practice. This article sets out to understand and describe the dynamics of militant republicanism's fluctuating commitment to vigilante violence, and in particular to understand the complex issues vigilantism has raised within Sinn Féin and the IRA in the past three decades. The article concludes that the two organizations are now irretrievably committed to vigilantism, and short of major RUC reform, they will be unable to end what has become a politically‐damaging policy.     

The story of the larger grain borer: Communicating Science to Rural Communities

Abstract

Although the democratisation of science was prioritised after the South African democratic elections of 1994, thus, promoting dialogue, transparency and consultation, communication with rural communities remains a challenge in South Africa. Because of the diverse cultural landscape of the country, aspects such as language, traditions and poverty impact significantly on the facilitation of communication and the dissemination of information, particularly in rural communities.

The South African government's quest to build a better future for all South Africans places renewed emphasis on the role of ‘development’ and the use of communication to meet the future challenges of ‘development for all’.

The purpose of this article is, firstly, to explore the development communication media used in the community awareness programme of the National Department of Agriculture of South Africa in the town of Makutu, Mpumalanga Province, and, secondly, to investigate and offer an assessment of the communication approach followed by the National Department of Agriculture. In this article the scene is set with a brief overview of development communication models and a discussion of different types of media and methods available for communicating with rural communities. A case study on an awareness project launched by the National Department of Agriculture is presented and the article concludes with an assessment of the case study against the theoretical overview presented in the first section of this article to determine the communication approach followed, and communication media and methods used.

A case study on The Larger Grain Borer (LGB), a quarantine insect pest of maize that has left a path of destruction through Africa, forms the basis of this article. The Directorate: Plant Health and Quality of the National Department of Agriculture of South Africa initiated this awareness project to empower farmers through awareness and education to prevent the spread, and to manage the impact, of the pest. It is believed that the key to rural food security lies in the country's ability to effectively disseminate information to rural communities.     

An Arab Option for Iraq

This article argues that a reemerging Iraqi Arab nationalism offers a chance for Iraqis to combat sectarian politics. Sectarianism, which Iran as well as various Sunni and Shi‘i Islamists have promoted in Iraq since 2003, ultimately created the instability and malcontent out of which ISIS emerged. Now that ISIS has been defeated on the battlefield, stakeholders should look to consolidate their military victories by transforming them into real political gains. The best way to do so is to build institutions and promote political identity based on the notion of an Arab Iraq.This article is part of a special project conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, titled: “After the Caliphate: Reassessing the Jihadi Threat and Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent,” which includes a book, a thematic issue of Orbis: FPRI's Journal of World Affairs (Summer 2018), and a series of podcasts. Each element of the project can be found here: https://www.fpri.org/research/after-the-caliphate-project/.