试析昂山素季对缅甸军政权态度的转变

2003年4月23日,昂山素季对缅甸军政权的态度发生了转变,首次公开抱怨与军政权的秘密谈判没有取得进展.2003年4月25日,缅甸军政权认为反对派领袖昂山素季的抱怨是毫无意义的,认为上述批评无助于全国和解.国家和平与发展委员会新总理钦纽上将在2003年8月30日讲话中提出了关于国民大会推动缅甸国家未来政治走向的新计划.钦纽将军还阐明了缅甸民主"路线图"的七个步骤,并声明将重新启动1996年临时中断的国民大会;按照国民大会制定的基本原则起草新宪法草案;举行全民公投,通过宪法草案;按照新宪法举行公平的大选以组成议会;由议会选举产生新政府.以昂山素季为首的缅甸反对派和国内外政治活动分子对这一计划进行了谴责.     

发展中的缅甸经济

截至一九八二年一月四日止,缅甸独立已经整整三十四周年了。 缅甸正在以建设“社会主义社会”为奋斗目标,根据以社会主义民主为基础的新宪法,在缅甸社会主义纲领党的领导下,组织包括工农在内的全体人民,通过经济计划,去完成建设繁荣昌盛的“社会主义社会”的任务。     

军政关系与缅甸政治发展道路的形成——兼论其对外交关系的影响

自现代国家建立之后,缅甸便致力于走议会制民主政治道路,但其发展却屡遭挫折.纵观缅甸跌宕起伏的政治发展进程,其命运始终与军人集团紧密关联,军政关系是直接决定缅甸政治发展道路的重要因素.军政关系既是塑造缅甸政治结果的核心机制,也是理解其政治发展道路的关键密钥.在1988年"缅甸之春"之后,军人集团开启了"渐进性脱离"模式的政治民主化转型,军人集团全面领导、设计和构建了"有纪律的民主"这种具有缅甸特色的政治体制.事实上,缅甸"有纪律的民主"并不是绝对意义上的西方式民主政体,而是一种兼具威权统治方式与民主政治规则的"混合政体".军人集团构建"有纪律的民主"这种特殊"混合政体"的根本目的是要继续维持自身对国家的领导,其缘起、形成及建构与缅甸的军政关系有着极为密切的关系.同时,"有纪律的民主"也是缅甸探索走具有本国特色政治发展道路的结果.文章通过结合军政关系来理解缅甸在1988年后的政治发展道路的形成机制,这将丰富对于军政关系、"混合政体"及军人政权转型等方面的研究,也有益于认知当代后发国家自主探索走具有本国特色发展道路的特殊规律和前沿动态.     

缅甸国内政治与对外关系现状

按照联合国宪章规定 ,非选举政府的执政期限不得超过 5年 ,但如今 1 0年过去了 ,缅甸军政府依然我行我素 ,敢冒天下之大不韪 ,拒绝和美国欧盟提出的承认 1 990年 5月大选结果并将政权移交给全国民主联盟的条件。缅甸军政府反复声称 ,它将完全按照自己的既定方式和时间表移交政权。为此 ,它致力于制订一部有力于自己的新宪法 ,一旦制宪完毕 ,将再举行新一轮选举 ,把自己 1 0年来苦心经营的政党 (联邦巩固发展协会 )推向政治舞台。尽管缅甸军政府至今仍被国际社会所遗弃 ,同东盟的关系微妙 ,但同中国的关系则是牢固的。     

二战期间中英在反攻缅甸问题上的分歧与斗争

二战期间,在缅甸保卫战役失利后,由于中英双方的共同需要,双方都希望实施反攻缅甸计划。中国政府坚持要海陆空协同作战,而英国政府从战后政治考虑不愿意出动海军和空军。由于中英双方在这个问题上存在不同的利益纷争,影响了反攻缅甸计划的实施。     

浅论泰国境内的缅甸难民问题

民族问题导致的60多年内战和军人政权统治的弊端使缅甸成为东南亚国家中最大的难民输出国.由于地缘上毗邻缅甸,泰国成为缅甸难民最主要的收容国.然而,缅甸难民问题给泰国造成了巨大的压力,也影响了泰缅两国关系.从解决前景看,泰国境内的缅甸难民问题要得到根本解决,必须依赖缅甸国内政治、经济状况的改善和民族问题的懈决.     

"经济增长阶段论"与美国对外开发援助政策

20世纪50年代,美国著名经济史学家沃尔特·罗斯托(Walt Whiteman Rostow)提出了拥有全球视野、深受"自由主义传统"与"帝国主义理论"影响的"经济增长阶段论",并试图促使美国实施向欠发达国家提供大规模开发援助的"世界经济计划"(World Economic Plan).在推动这一计划的过程中,罗斯托的"经济增长阶段论"得到了约翰·肯尼迪总统的赏识,因此成为1960年代美国对外开发援助政策的理论基础.然而,最终罗斯托既没有达到追求真理的学术目标,也没有实现推动第三世界国家走向"起飞"(take off)的政治抱负.本文重在探讨"经济增长阶段论"(Stages of Economic Growth)的主要内容、意识形态内涵及其影响,从而揭示如罗斯托这样亦官亦学的理论家在推动政策制订和实施方面面临的困境.     

后军人时代缅甸的“双头政治”及其外交影响

缅甸进入后军人时代后,国内呈现由军人集团和文官政府组成的"双头政治"权力格局,这种格局是前军人集团政治设计的结果,对现在缅甸的外交政策有很大影响。在外交政策的制定、落实和应对国际压力的过程中,"双头政治"的博弈因少数民族的政治参与而变得更加复杂,体现为军人、文官政府和少数民族的"三方博弈"。在缅北民族和解进程中,各方政治力量的博弈使得缅甸陷入既需要外部帮助斡旋而又让外部难以有效参与的困境。在中资大项目问题上,这些博弈导致缅甸对华政策出现"依赖"与"反依赖"纠葛,而中缅关系无法有效推进的局面。在若开罗兴亚人问题上,各方博弈更使缅甸陷入国际道义、政治与法律围攻的窘境。究其根本,缅甸仍停留在"求稳定"与"求发展"的初级阶段,而国内长期存在的政治认同分歧与族群割裂,使其在后军人时代可能进入另一个"乱局"。军人势力仍然强大、文官政权软弱、少数民族各自进行不同程度的国际动员,各方"自助"而"不得助"的客观形势,使得民盟政府初期良好的外交环境日益恶劣。因国内政治而不断引发外交危机,缅甸孜孜以求的独立自主、中立主义和韧性外交受到极大影响,缅甸的复兴梦与发展梦未有穷期。     

缅甸军人政权缘何能长期存在?——一些西方学者的观点解析

缅甸的军人政权是当今世界寿命最长的军人政权之一.缅甸的军人政权缘何能长期存在,一些西方学者从不同角度进行了研究和解释.本文认为,一些西方学者对缅甸军人政权长期存在的内因的分析,多数观点是能够自圆其说的,但其关于外因的说法则值得怀疑.本文指出,一些西方学者将缅甸军人政权能够长期存在的主要外部原因归结为中国、印度、俄罗斯尤其是中国的支持,这是不切实际、带有政治偏见的.尤其是他们对所谓"中国在缅甸的战略利益"的种种猜测.似有"以小人之心度君子之腹"之嫌.     

缅甸改革的难点、走势与对华影响

缅甸正在进行的改革是一场自上而下的全面的改革,改革的难点在于国家认同、宗教和解与潜在宪法危机等几个方面。鉴于缅甸是中国的邻国,且具有重要地缘战略地位,其改革成败将对中国产生很大影响。中国应该密切关注缅甸改革进程,在经济领域努力拓展并做到双赢,保持在缅优势地位与影响力,同时与缅甸各方政治力量保持全面接触与友好关系,并将缅甸作为发展与东盟关系的重要平台,最终以缅甸为战略通道实现"走向印度洋"的战略目标。     

Locating Kaliningrad And KÖNigsberg In Russian And German Collective Identity Discourses And Political Symbolism In The 750Th Anniversary Celebrations Of 2005

This article begins by briefly exploring issues of conflict and control in relation to the 750th anniversary of the city of Kaliningrad/Königsberg. An analysis of the tensions between Russian regional (Kaliningrad) and national (federal) identity discourses on the political symbolism of the 750th anniversary commemoration is offered, using Russian media reports and interviews conducted in Kaliningrad. German narratives on the political symbolism of the anniversary events and their implications for German national identity discourses are investigated via interviews conducted in Kaliningrad and Germany, German media reports, books, films and a theater production about Königsberg. Particular attention is given to the impact of the German expellee organizations on framing the discourse about Königsberg in contemporary Germany. The article will conclude by comparing and contrasting the various discourses and interpretations of the anniversary in the Kaliningrad region, Russia and Germany.     

'Adorned with the Mix of Faith and Profanity that Intoxicates the People': The Festival of the Senhor do Bonfim in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, 1930–19541

This essay looks at a formative period in the history of the festival of the Senhor do Bonfim, one of Salvador's most important religious festivals. The essay focuses on the public ritual washing of the Church of Bonfim and the tensions between the Catholic Church, who periodically banned the washing from the larger festival, and a variety of historical actors including politicians, journalists, authors and working-class Salvadorans whose efforts eventually contributed to the lifting of the prohibition once and for all in 1953. The author suggests that the defence of the washing both reflected and contributed to a larger hegemonic process taking place in Salvador after 1930, as actors within Salvador's dominant class accepted and even praised Afro-Bahian cultural practices, including them as integral parts of a larger Bahian identity.     

The FBI's Role in Expelling Germans from Ecuador During the 1940s

The expulsion from Latin America of immigrants from axis countries and their descendants is an important but little‐studied episode of the Second World War. The role of the US, and in particular that of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), in their removal has largely disappeared from historical memory. This article examines how the FBI advanced US commercial interests, and in the process harmed vulnerable people who were subject to these expulsions.     

INDIA’S DEMONETISATION: MODI’S ‘NUDGE’ TO CHANGE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR

This article offers an account of the impact of Indian PM Narendra Modi’s decision in November 2016 to withdraw suddenly all Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes from circulation in India with the avowed intent of combatting fraud, tax avoidance and other economic problems. The article assesses the impact from the demonetisation in November to the March 2017 Indian regional elections, where wide-scale victories for Modi’s political party, the BJP, appear to have vindicated his reforms. The article provides an analysis of the political background of the period, as well as looking at the economic and societal impact of the changes, including the way in which the behaviour of Indian citizens has been ‘nudged’ with particular regard to use of banking, transactions, social effects, and payment of tax.     

The Health of the Rurality: The Encuesta de Folklore and Popular Healing Practices in Tucumán, 1921

This article examines healing practices among the rural inhabitants of Tucumán in the opening quarter of the twentieth century through a reading of the 1921 National Folklore Survey. It argues that popular medical practices, referred to as curanderismos (popular healing), continued into the twentieth century not only as cultural practice of the popular classes but as necessity due to limited investments in public health in the rural regions on the part of the national and provincial government.     

DROUGHT: THE ACHILLES HEEL OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

Approximately 97% of the country is experiencing drought conditions. Due to gross water mismanagement and its damaging impact on the country, Iran faces the worst situation in water resources of any industrialized nation. Tens of thousands of villages have been deserted and most of the major urban centers have passed their limits to absorb new rural migrants. Some officials predict that in less than 25 years, 50 million Iranians would be displaced from their current homes because of the pressing ecological conditions. This is happening at the time that the gap between the grassroots and the state has widened and there is increasing dissatisfaction with governance plagued by corruption, nepotism, economic mismanagement, unaccountability and a foreign policy which has produced various regional and trans-regional adversaries. This paper evaluates the pressing ecological challenges in Iran and by conceptualizing political resilience it critically evaluates whether the Islamic Republic is prepared to face the devastating ecological crisis and its socio-economic consequences.