俄格冲突后俄罗斯中亚政策走向

普京上台以来，俄罗斯一直致力于恢复在中亚的影响。梅普组合政权模式保证了俄中亚政策的延续性。俄格冲突后，俄中亚政策将更加主动和强硬，以巩固目前在中亚地缘政治竞争中的相对优势。目前，俄中亚政策在战略层面上没有发生变化，变化的仅仅是策略。     

俄格冲突的深层原因及影响

2006年9月底,俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚之间的“间谍风波”引发两国关系出现了自苏联解体后的最严重危机。俄格矛盾与冲突的背后是两国在阿布哈兹和南奥塞梯问题上的利益冲突,以及俄罗斯与西方对格鲁吉亚的地缘政治争夺。俄格关系恶化将对格国内和外高地区局势、独联体未来以及俄与西方关系产生一系列重要影响。     

俄格关系新动向

苏联解体后,俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚两国由于历史、民族、驻军等原因,彼此之间矛盾不断。2008年俄格冲突爆发,格鲁吉亚与俄罗斯断交,随后退出独联体,俄格关系进入了冰冻期。近一年来,由于格鲁吉亚政局及外交政策发生了变化,俄格关系出现了改善趋向。     

俄格冲突剖析

2008年8月发生的俄格军事冲突有着复杂的历史、现实和地缘政治等多种原因,现今深层次因素是俄美在高加索和中亚地带的角力与博弈。冲突及其引起的国际反应表明,俄罗斯已有足够的政治影响力和军事实力在高加索和中亚地区发挥其传统作用。俄格冲突对独联体今后的发展、对俄格双方与北约的关系、对俄欧及俄美关系都将产生广泛而深远的影响。     

俄格冲突的根源探析

近来俄格围绕南奥塞梯的激烈冲突绝非仅仅是涉及其双边关系的一个孤立事件,其背后隐藏着诸多复杂因素;格鲁吉亚的"亲西方"政策、俄格在阿布哈兹和南奥塞梯问题上的历史积怨、以美国为首的西方对俄罗斯的战略挤压以及俄美对里海地区能源的争夺乃是俄格冲突的根源所在;此外,俄罗斯不断提升的综合国力也是催生俄格冲突的一个因素.     

俄格冲突与上海合作组织

俄格冲突给国际关系带来的变化使上海合作组织面临极为复杂的国际和地区环境。冲突除导致俄美对抗加剧给上海合作组织的发展方向提出严峻挑战外,当事国俄罗斯的对外政策、对前苏联地区（尤其是中亚地区）的政策及其对上海合作组织的政策态度,都会对上海合作组织产生深刻的影响。在新的形势下,上海合作组织应在区域经济合作上有所突破,在地区安全（如阿富汗局势）上有所作为,以保持该组织的良好状态和发展活力。     

俄格冲突以来的高加索格局

高加索地区由于其重要的战略地位和丰富的油气资源,是世界主要力量争夺的重要地区。自2008年8月俄格军事冲突以来,由于相继发生全球经济放缓、欧债危机以及中东地区政治、社会动荡。这些因素使高加索地区的战略格局发生很大变化,呈现一些新的特征。第一,地区形势更趋复杂。第二,俄罗斯影响力上升,欧美影响力下降。第三,该地区在欧美战略中的地位下降。     

俄格冲突：地缘政治框架下的分析

2008年8月爆发的俄格冲突是相关各方地政治博弈背景下的产物，它反映了俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯与美国以及欧亚地区三个层次的地政治冲突的现实。冲突也相应地在三个层次上产生了反映地政治冲突的力量格局和平衡的现实结果。俄格冲突也在地政治层面对今后国际局势产生了重要影响，其中包括对当前美国主导的国际秩序的冲击，对北约未来发展的冲击以及对国际能源局势的冲击。     

俄格冲突对国际关系的影响探析

俄格冲突是苏联解体后俄罗斯军队第一次在境外作战。学界对此进行了各种分析评论,总体上担心这场冲突会导致"新冷战"开场,怀疑国际格局发生了重大变化。从实际情况看,俄罗斯是在格鲁吉亚突然袭击受维和部队保护的南奥塞梯后被迫采取的军事行动,仅仅是为了阻止北约继续东扩的步伐。这场冲突既没有改变"美强俄弱"的总体国际环境,甚至也没有改变"美攻俄守"的欧亚地区格局。俄格冲突是对冷战结束以来美国在世界各地推行强权政治的"反动",引发人们对冷战后国际关系准则一再遭到破坏的深刻反思。     

俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚关系的变化及走势

在独联体国家关系中,俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚关系最为复杂.两国独立以来,由于反恐、驻军、历史和民族问题等诸多因素,彼此间始终龃龉不断.叶利钦执政时期,因格鲁吉亚国内形势及俄格两国外交战略的变化,俄格关系起伏较大.普京执政初期,力图扭转与格关系,但由于同格矛盾较深,俄格关系始终没有得到真正好转.格鲁吉亚发生"颜色革命"后,俄格关系更是急转直下,双方剑拔弩张,几乎濒临战争边缘.梅德维杰夫执政后,双方虽均有缓和彼此关系的愿望,但基于两国关系的脆弱性,俄格关系进一步恶化,最终双方发生武装冲突,两国关系降至独立以来的历史最低点.今后,两国关系在一定时期内难有好转.     

The co-ordination of conflict prevention and development aid in southern Georgia

This article examines how various organisations co-ordinate conflict prevention and development aid in the Samtskhe-Javakheti region of southern Georgia, and how this co-ordination might be improved. Several contradicting perspectives are pitted against one another to arrive at a comprehensive understanding of the region’s troubles and the manner in which these multilateral, bilateral, local, regional and nongovernmental actors have dealt with them. The paper pays particular attention to the question of whether organisations working in Samtskhe-Javakheti should focus on development assistance or conflict prevention, and whether early warning about the region has been exaggerated and uncoordinated. It concludes that there has been a reasonable balance between development aid and conflict prevention, that early warning has mostly been cautious, and that there has been considerable information sharing and synchronisation between agencies. However, this co-ordination has depended on a number of non-governmental organisations performing co-ordinating roles on their own initiative.     

俄罗斯的恐怖主义犯罪及反恐措施

俄罗斯恐怖主义犯罪近年呈上升趋势 ,不论是对个人实施的恐怖主义还是有组织的恐怖主义都有所增长。本文从把恐怖主义作为犯罪的角度分析其快速增长的根源 ,既有社会因素 ,又有政府和执法机关工作不力因素。要从立法、国际合作、心理培训及加强国家主权上化解不利的根源因素 ,以达到反恐目的。     

俄罗斯经济现状及前景分析

2000年以来,俄罗斯经济一直保持增长势头.俄国内普遍对2001年经济形势持乐观态度.本文认为,从一些主要的经济指标来看,俄罗斯经济的确开始回升,俄今后一个时期内经济会继续增长,但增幅不会太大.俄罗斯经济是恢复性增长,亮点虽多,但不能据此肯定已经形成了"拐点".     

对俄投资合作的风险及防范

随着市场竞争的日趋激烈,投资风险对企业生存与发展的影响愈来愈大。多年的对俄经贸合作实践告诫我们,搞投资、做项目,除了必要的科学与技术论证之外,还必须有法律同行。用法律考量合作项目与内容,防可做壁垒,攻可做武器。     

Refugees in Russia: the Law on Refugees and its Implementation

Since the adoption of a new Russian Law on Refugees in 1997,the number of recognized refugees has dropped drastically. TheLaw has a definition of the term ‘refugee’ almostidentical to that of the 1951 Convention. But many provisionsof the Law are contradictory to Russia's international obligations.After a short look at the background to the issue, the Law onRefugees is examined. Then the implementation of the Law iscompared with the situation before its entry into force. Thedifficult life conditions of refugees and asylum seekers areconsidered to be partly a result of the legal provisions andtheir realization. The factors that contribute to the presentsituation are discussed. While certain provisions of the existingLaw need to be amended, it has to be implemented in order toprovide international protection to asylum seekers.     

Managing conflict in north-west Kenya: the siege of Loregon and its aftermath

Conflict management in the context of ethnic boundaries and a history of inter-ethnic violence remains a challenge in a range of socio-economic contexts. Conflict management in remote rural areas within developing states where state presence and capacity is relatively weak amidst a background of prolonged and ongoing inter-ethnic violence is particularly challenging. This article examines a case of successful bottom-up efforts to manage conflict at the micro level in northern Kenya. Focusing on the so-called siege of Loregon and its aftermath, this case study describes dynamics on one part of the ‘border’ between Turkana and Pokot ethnic groups, examining the causes and consequences of this violent episode, with a particular focus on recent successes at the local level in managing conflict and as a consequence in reducing the likelihood of future violence in a particular locality, despite ongoing violence in other parts of the interface between Turkana-Pokot ethnic groups.     

美国大幅调整对俄罗斯政策

布什政府上台后,大幅度改变克林顿政府的俄罗斯政策,采取驱逐俄外交官、停止向俄提供贷款、削减帮助俄销毁核弹头的资金、逮捕俄白联盟国务秘书、会晤“车臣外长”等行动,并公开宣称俄对美及其盟友构成威胁。美新政府调整对俄政策,导致了美俄关系逆转。面对美咄咄逼人的态势,国力衰微的俄罗斯,虽不能与美进行全面对抗,但也不会毫无作为。然而从总体上审视,美俄关系不会倒退回冷战时期。但是,美俄是世界头号和二号核大国,其关系的变化将会对大国关系和世界格局的发展产生重要影响。     

Democracy in Georgia Since the Rose Revolution

Success for Georgia's nascent democracy would be a major success for the democracy-promotion efforts of the United States, which has hailed the democratization there since the Rose Revolution as a success even as concerns have been voiced by some observers regarding the pace and direction of this effort. The U.S. policy of unconditional support for Georgia's government and its disinterest in drawing attention to the new government's democratization shortcomings call into question how serious the United States is about democracy-promotion, particularly in countries that have a semi-democratic but pro-American government. A U.S. approach to Georgia that recognizes the challenges there and seeks to help it solve these problems will demonstrate that America is sincere in its desire to promote democracy, not just to support friendly governments.     

Demographic manipulation in the Caucasus (with special reference to Georgia)

The author discusses political developments in the Caucasus region since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The focus is on the events in Georgia that led to the war in South Ossetia (particularly in Abkhazia), and the author suggests that this development is the latest in a 200-year history of demographic manipulation of minority peoples by the region's two major powers, Russia and Georgia. Parallels are drawn between the Georgian war in Abkhazia and Russia's war in Chechenia. The author questions the value of the principle of territorial integrity, and suggests that alternative principles safeguarding the rights of ethnic minorities would be more appropriate in these circumstances.