俄格军事冲突的国际影响

2008年8月7日，俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚因南奥赛梯争端爆发军事冲突。虽然这场战争因双方实力相差悬殊只打了短短的五天，冲突地点也被限定在格鲁吉亚境内。但其影响已远远超过两国、超过高加索地区，并对整个前苏联边界地带乃至整个国际体系都产生了重大冲击。     

俄格外交危机的历史解读

一、俄格外交危机背后的矛盾与冲突格鲁吉亚原是苏联的一个加盟共和国。自苏联解体以来，俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚这两个新诞生国家之间的矛盾、冲突和对峙几乎没有停止过，而且关系日趋紧张。2004年初，萨卡什维利通过“玫瑰革命”，当上格鲁吉亚总统。此后，     

格鲁吉亚冲突后的中美俄三边关系

一、俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚的军事冲突的所产生的影响是战略性的。这场冲突已经演变成为俄罗斯和美国之间的冲突，将给国际关系带来多方位的影响。俄格冲突可能有以下三个走向：     

后冷战时期俄美在格鲁吉亚的地缘政治较量

2006年以来，俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚之间连续爆发所谓签证、“间谍”风波，使原本就龃龉不断的双边关系更是雪上加霜。透过这些矛盾和冲突，可以看到其中有格鲁吉亚要求实现国家统一的因素，主要是俄美地缘政治博弈的结果。俄罗斯在“间谍”风波中的强烈反应表明，在同美国关于独联体主导权的争夺中，俄罗斯已经开始由原来的“软抗争”转向了“硬对抗”。这既是美俄双方战略利益冲突的反映，也表明普京统治下的俄罗斯正在形成新的外交政策。     

俄格关系新动向

苏联解体后，俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚两国由于历史、民族、驻军等原因，彼此之间矛盾不断。2008年俄格冲突爆发，格鲁吉亚与俄罗斯断交，随后退出独联体，俄格关系进入了冰冻期。近一年来，由于格鲁吉亚政局及外交政策发生了变化，俄格关系出现了改善趋向。     

俄格冲突对国际关系的影响探析

俄格冲突是苏联解体后俄罗斯军队第一次在境外作战。学界对此进行了各种分析评论,总体上担心这场冲突会导致"新冷战"开场,怀疑国际格局发生了重大变化。从实际情况看,俄罗斯是在格鲁吉亚突然袭击受维和部队保护的南奥塞梯后被迫采取的军事行动,仅仅是为了阻止北约继续东扩的步伐。这场冲突既没有改变"美强俄弱"的总体国际环境,甚至也没有改变"美攻俄守"的欧亚地区格局。俄格冲突是对冷战结束以来美国在世界各地推行强权政治的"反动",引发人们对冷战后国际关系准则一再遭到破坏的深刻反思。     

阿布哈兹问题缘起及前景

阿布哈兹是格鲁吉亚境内的一个自治共和国，它与格鲁吉亚的争端由来已久。20世纪90年代初期，正当苏联发生剧变之际，亲俄罗斯的阿布哈兹宣布脱离格鲁吉亚而独立，引发格当局与阿地方政府之间长达14个月的大规模战争。武力对抗并没有解决争端，双方被迫停战谈判，但在关键问题上难以达成一致，始终处于“僵持”状态，成为困扰格鲁吉亚当局最棘手的难题。近期，俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚因南奥塞梯问题爆发的严重冲突重新激化了阿布哈兹问题。尽管目前俄格军事冲突暂时停息，但问题依旧未能解决，阿布哈兹和南奥塞梯这类“被冻结的冲突”的“解冻”无疑将使高加索地区陷入动荡之中。     

俄格冲突：地缘政治框架下的分析

2008年8月爆发的俄格冲突是相关各方地政治博弈背景下的产物，它反映了俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯与美国以及欧亚地区三个层次的地政治冲突的现实。冲突也相应地在三个层次上产生了反映地政治冲突的力量格局和平衡的现实结果。俄格冲突也在地政治层面对今后国际局势产生了重要影响，其中包括对当前美国主导的国际秩序的冲击，对北约未来发展的冲击以及对国际能源局势的冲击。     

俄罗斯大事记（2008年5月～6月）

5月 1日俄罗斯超过200万人参加五一劳动节游行，其中包括彼得堡反对党组织的游行队伍。2日格鲁吉亚外交部正式要求俄罗斯立即撤回阿布哈兹冲突区残留的维和部队。3日俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫（SergeiLavrov）表示，西方支持格鲁吉亚加入北约导致格在一些问题事件上与俄“无意协商”。     

俄罗斯大事记（2006年10-12月）

10月 1日俄罗斯总统新闻秘书格罗莫夫1日宣布，俄总统普京当天指示国防部，尽管目前与格鲁吉亚关系紧张，但俄罗斯仍将根据双方达成的撤除俄军事基地的协议继续从格鲁吉亚撤军。     

Human Rights and Foreign Policy: Wilson and the Greek Dictators, 1967–1970

The military coup of 21 April 1967 brought to power a repressive dictatorship in Greece. It proceeded to deprive Greeks of their human rights and civil liberties, outraged international public opinion and strained transatlantic relations during the Cold War. The “Greek case” culminated in the withdrawal of Greece from the Council of Europe and calls for its expulsion from NATO. This article will analyse the foreign policy considerations that determined British policy towards the Greek junta during 1967—such as Cold War realities, alliance dynamics, economic and commercial imperatives, regional instability in the Mediterranean and domestic pressures. It will look at how these factors coalesced into shaping British policy towards the Greek junta into one in which human rights had little bearing. The article will also consider the impact of the “Greek case” on the image and credibility of the Labour government of 1966–1970 and explain why vociferous anti-junta activities in London were to create such policy difficulties for the British government.     

Increasing strategic accountability: a framework for international NGOs

The accountability of international development NGOs (INGOs) has attracted a great deal of interest from academics and development practitioners. INGO accountability falls into two categories: practical accountability (for the use of inputs, the way activities are performed, and outputs) and strategic accountability for INGOs' performance in relation to their mission. This article presents a conceptual framework for exploring INGO accountability. It is based on information collected through a literature review and semi-structured interviews with representatives from 20 UK-based INGOs. The research found that INGOs tend to use a number of quality-assurance mechanisms to achieve ‘practical’ accountability. However, it is suggested that this kind of accountability will not necessarily enable INGOs to achieve their missions to alleviate poverty and eliminate injustice. Furthermore, the predominant use of practical accountability has led to a number of gaps in INGO accountability. It is suggested that, like the term ‘participation’ before it, accountability has been co-opted for its instrumental benefits to INGO project performance and management. It is argued that if INGOs are to achieve their missions, this will require more ‘strategic’ forms of accountability, geared towards fundamentally changing those social, economic, and political structures that promote poverty.     

Precision Terror: Suicide Bombing as Control Technology

Suicide bombing can be understood as a technology that successfully integrates people, cultures, and hardware into precise, intelligent, lethal weapons systems. Lacking access to the sophisticated electronic guidance systems of their enemies, terrorists have developed a cost-effective alternative technology by using social and cultural pressure to convert human beings into guidance systems for terrorist ordnance. This demonstrates that while terrorists tend to be imitative in their technologies, they can still be effective and difficult to predict. A significant implication that arises from this discussion is that the American tendency to assume that “high-tech” devices will automatically confer an advantage on the United States in the struggle against terrorism should be reconsidered.     

美国华人社会探索的社会学新视野——评周敏的《美国华人社会的变迁》

《美国华人社会的变迁》是一部从社会学的视角和路经来探索美国华人社会的具有创新性的力作,这种研究视角的创新具有重大的方法论和认识论价值,对于进一步了解美国华人社会和华人人口的历史与现状具有重要意义。该书有3个特点:一是实证研究与理论创新;二是探讨亚裔社会和族裔群体;三是观点新颖,论证缜密。我们评介周敏教授的大作,是希望我国华侨华人学界能够拓展理论视野,运用多学科的研究方法,包括社会学的理论和知识、实证研究和比较研究的方法,从多层面、多角度、多向度、多维度去探索,从而使我国华侨华人学研究再上一个新的台阶。     

Human Rights and Foreign Policy: Wilson and the Greek Dictators, 1967-1970

The military coup of 21 April 1967 brought to power a repressive dictatorship in Greece. It proceeded to deprive Greeks of their human rights and civil liberties, outraged international public opinion and strained transatlantic relations during the Cold War. The “Greek case” culminated in the withdrawal of Greece from the Council of Europe and calls for its expulsion from NATO. This article will analyse the foreign policy considerations that determined British policy towards the Greek junta during 1967—such as Cold War realities, alliance dynamics, economic and commercial imperatives, regional instability in the Mediterranean and domestic pressures. It will look at how these factors coalesced into shaping British policy towards the Greek junta into one in which human rights had little bearing. The article will also consider the impact of the “Greek case” on the image and credibility of the Labour government of 1966-1970 and explain why vociferous anti-junta activities in London were to create such policy difficulties for the British government.     

论中国人移民东南亚的四次大潮

中国人移民东南亚历史，根据其动力和规模，可分为四次大潮。东南亚为中国海外移民的最主要目的地。中国人大规模移民东南亚始于17世纪，盛于20世纪上半叶，历三波移民高潮。20世纪50年代初期至中国改革开放前，移民东南亚工程中断。随着大陆改革开放及中国与东南亚经济合作的飞速发展，中国人重启移民东南亚热潮。虽然推动不同时期的移民潮各有其不同的国内外因素，但就四次大规模移民潮而言，中国与东南亚的经贸发展和合作都是主要动力之一。随着中国与东南亚经济一体化进程加速，如中国与东南亚的政治关系保持良好，前往东南亚的移民潮仍将继续。与此同时，东南亚各国进入中国的移民也将日益增多，并呈加速之势。     

Terrorist Skin,Peace-Party Mask: The Political Communication Strategy of Sinn Féin and the PIRA

The article analyses the political communication strategy adopted by Sinn Féin in order to legitimize the Provisional Irish Republican Army's (PIRA) terrorist campaign during their transition from violence into mainstream politics. Their endeavours to portray a triumphant republican movement in spite of the huge gap between strategic aims and achievements are examined. The political and social rehabilitation of violent Republicanism, and how their leaders have evolved from pariahs to celebrities, is also assessed. The role of the media and political elites, as well as the political discourse of the PIRA and Sinn Féin, is analysed in order to examine how the republican movement has tried to rewrite its past in an attempt to gain political and social legitimacy. Consequently, the myths reproduced by republicans to disguise their failures as historical compromises, reproducing a more benign interpretation of history which distorts the causes and consequences of terrorism, are critically assessed. The article will focus on the struggle for the legitimacy of the terrorist campaign and the propaganda system which, in the words of Garret FitzGerald (Irish Prime Minister between 1981 and 1987), has managed to turn the republican movement into the “peace party” despite murdering thousands of human beings.     

From car bombs to logic bombs: The growing threat from information terrorism

The vulnerability of the critical infrastructure has led to increasing concern that it will be the target of terrorist attacks. This article explores definitional aspects of information terrorism and identifies two groups likely to find information terrorism attractive: conventional terrorist groups and information culture groups. As computer sophisticated youth move into the ranks of conventional terrorist groups, the groups will increase their reliance on computer technology, and information terrorism will be incorporated into a hybrid tactical repertoire. Information culture groups, however, confine their attacks to cyberspace. In contrast to the powerful group dynamics of the traditional underground terrorist group, networked groups, particularly information culture terrorists, may only be in contact electronically, and are subject to a radically different group psychology, virtual group dynamics, that significantly affects their decision making and risk taking, and has dangerous security implications.     

Second Face of Security Strategies: Anglo-German and Anglo-Japanese Trade Concessions During the 1930s

Great powers can pursue deliberate Trojan horse policies to transform rising and threatening states into followers and supporters rather than challengers by altering their domestic political and economic institutions. I contend that a great power can use trade concessions, rather than punishment, to enable a favorable foreign policy coalition in a target country. The intent is to strengthen the political power of state and societal elites who have a stake in deepening international ties, while opponents of such policies will be weakened politically and economically. The societal winners will then apply pressure on the government to support their preferred outward-oriented grand strategy. I term this process the second face of security since it entails a less direct and more nuanced method of creating security. I examine Britain's commercial policies toward Germany and Japan during the 1930s to better understand second-face strategies. I argue that the intent of Britain's industrial and commercial policy was to strengthen conservative business, government officials, and economic circles in banking, light industry, and finished goods, and even heavy industry in order to steer Berlin and Tokyo away from rearmament, extreme autarky, and war.     

中东剧变与阿拉伯世界的未来

当前中东正经历的历史性剧变,不仅引发阿拉伯世界的集体大动荡,而且严重冲击地区政治、安全和地缘政治关系,也对大国的中东政策构成重大挑战。未来中东局势改革已势在必行;伊斯兰政治力量将增大,阿拉伯世界长期陷入内乱,伊朗、土耳其将谋求发挥更大地区影响力;美国全球战略与中东政策面临多重结构性挑战;欧盟在外交、能源、安全、移民等方面遭遇前所未有的压力;国际原油市场受冲击从而影响全球经济复苏。