Negotiated transitions to democracy: Israel and the Palestinians as a case study

This article applies the Huntingtonian framework used by Jung and Shapiro to study South Africa's democratic transition to the Israeli‐Palestinian case. While leaders’ incentives pushed negotiators towards a highly inclusive constitutional order in South Africa, in the Israeli‐Palestinian case they pushed negotiators towards a highly exclusive order, crafted by means of a unique and bizarre but as yet unstudied electoral system. While the Palestinian entity may develop into a full‐fledged democracy in the long run, in the medium term it will not be truly democratic because political life affords no room for legitimate opposition. The findings suggest that transplacements in which the outgoing power does not plan to participate in the new political system may generally lead to highly exclusive political orders.     

South African election posters: Reflecting the maturing of a democracy?

Abstract

The South African democracy has survived three national and provincial elections and three local elections, since 1994. In comparison to other young democracies in Africa, South Africa has experienced a relatively stable transition to democracy. However, the ruling ANC has not been under pressure from opposition parties. Although this has helped pave the way, a dominant governing party does not necessarily encourage the growth of a mature, democratic political culture. The assumption of this article is that political parties in developing societies have a normative obligation to do more than canvas votes during election campaigns. Political parties should also be instrumental in fostering a democratic political culture by communicating democratic values, encouraging participation in the democracy and enabling voters to make an informed electoral choice. Although political posters contribute mainly to image building, the reinforcement of party support, and the visibility of the party, posters are the agenda setters or headlines of a party's campaign – it is therefore argued that political parties in developing societies also need to design political posters responsively, in order to sustain the democracy. In general it seems that the poster campaigns of parties have matured since 1999, in the sense that there was less emphasis on democratisation issues in the past, and the campaigns conformed more to the norm of Western political campaigning.     

Battleground: candidate selection and violence in Africa’s dominant political parties

ABSTRACT

This article develops a theory – rooted in the experience of the African National Congress in South Africa – to explain how, and why, a dominant political party is less likely to conduct orderly elections to select its political leadership. First, I demonstrate that canny party leaders – operating in the space between a divided society and a weak state – make an ideological turn to a “congress-like” political party, which is clever (in the short term) because it provides party leaders with an in-built electoral majority. It is, however, also a dangerous manoeuvre because it essentially endogenizes social competition for state resources inside the dominant party. This displacement of social competition away from the public sphere towards the partisan organization increases the likelihood of disorderly competition for party candidacies. Second, I demonstrate how this competition need not necessarily become the basis of violent competition inside the dominant party. The party leadership can use intra-party elections to stabilize competition, but only if the party invests in an organization that applies impartially the rules that govern the election.     

Cross‐cutting issues and the consolidation of democracy in Taiwan

This article examines the cause of Taiwan's recent successful democratic consolidation. It argues that cross‐cutting issues in the electoral process allow democratic systems to periodically generate new winners. The prospect of reasonable certainty to win gives different political groups, including previously anti‐system or semi‐loyal groups, incentives to adhere to the democratic rules of the game. This process contributed to the democratic consolidation in Taiwan. More specifically, the non‐mainstream faction of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party, which initially opposed democratization, and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which wanted more radical constitutional and political reforms, came to accept the post‐transition democratic regime due to the emergence of new electoral issues. New issues surrounding corruption and socio‐economic reforms allowed both the non‐mainstream faction of the KMT and the DPP to advance their interests through the democratic electoral process.     

SYRIZA's Electoral Victory in Greek Thrace: Impact of Muslim Minority Vote in the Changing Political System

This article, based on the link between institutional changes and voter behavior, focusing mainly on the 2015 parliamentary elections in Greece and the SYRIZA party's success in Greek Thrace, aims to understand why the Muslim minority voted significantly for SYRIZA and how they managed to send four Muslim representatives to the Greek Parliament, three of them from the same party. The article argues that, although there is massive support for radical-left SYRIZA due to its electoral promises to improve social services in addition to the party's rational candidate nomination, this support reflects a mixture of sociological and issue-voting behavior of the Muslim minority related to their motivation for political representation rather than an ideological shift. The changing political system in Greece since 2012, from a two-party to a multiparty system with decreasing voter turnout, increased the impact of the Muslim vote on electoral results in the September and January 2015 elections; however, it also increased social tension between the majority and the minority.     

Mincing Words: The Three Layers of the AKP’s Narrative on Kurdish Politics

Abstract

In 2009–2015, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) put forward several initiatives to end insurgency in Kurdish majority areas. However, successive “openings” failed to make progress. The electoral and international goals of the AKP gradually became incongruent with the peace process, and the AKP espoused heavy-handed tactics in July 2015. The ups and downs of the process in 2009–2015 show that it was already fragile. Some causes of this fragility were external to the AKP, such as the opposition parties’ eagerness to use the process to poach nationalist voters and the PKK’s violence. However, I argue that the contradictory nature of the AKP’s narrative was also a crucial factor. The party’s earlier narrative required the strict separation of two layers: security policies to fight terrorists and democratization policies to address the legitimate grievances of citizens. However, the intersubjective strategies that it experimented later required a gray area between these two fields. The AKP, instead of changing strategies, has constructed a three-layered, contradictory narrative.     

The Guatemalan National Revolutionary unit: the long collapse

ABSTRACT

The Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unit (URNG) fought one of the longest and bloodiest civil wars in recent Latin American history. In 1996, the URNG and the Government of Guatemala signed a Firm and Lasting Agreement ending the country’s civil war and initiating the URNG’s post-war life as a political party. After finishing third in its initial electoral competition, the URNG has since been unable to capture more than 4% of the vote, on its own or in coalition, leaving it a minor political party. What explains the poor electoral performance of the URNG as a political party? Based upon fieldwork, elite interviews, and analysis of electoral data, I argue that the URNG’s minor party performance was caused by both organizational and institutional factors.     

The Presidency,the Parties and Democratization in Mexico

This article seeks to explain how democratization in Mexico reinvigorated a party system that a generation earlier existed mainly on paper. The process of democratization involved a reduction, though by no means the elimination, of the meta-presidentialism in favour of a more law-based system. Forces exogenous to the party system shaped the initial democratization process. However, once the regime agreed to accept certain electoral rule changes, especially after 1986, the system of party competition developed dramatically to a much greater extent than expected. The initial threat to the system posed by the Cardenas candidacy in 1988 was suppressed. However, after 1988 electoral competition became increasingly important. In terms of shaping factors, therefore, one could see the birth of party competition contingent on other democratizing influences. However, once born, it proved to have a considerable shaping influence of its own. The current democratic system in Mexico selects the president by simple majority. There is no runoff system. However, Congress is elected according to systems of proportional representation. This makes minority presidentialism likely, as has indeed been the pattern since 2000. Since the Mexican constitution confers rather few powers on the presidency, the result is likely to be a continued redistribution of power from the president to the Congress.     

Dominant party cohesion in comparative perspective: evidence from South Africa and Namibia

Africa's proliferation of dominant-party regimes is often regarded as an obstacle to democratization. Scholars and practitioners therefore face the task of understanding how and why constitutionally legitimate challenges to dominant party rule occur. This article asks: why do some presidential succession crises act as a catalyst to dominant party fragmentation when others do not? It argues that minority factions are more likely to defect from a dominant party when they have (1) been marginalized by the majority faction and (2) confidence in their mobilizational capacity. Factional purging is in turn traced to autocratic leadership and party under-bureaucratization, whilst high levels of factional self-confidence are linked to crises of dominance and the weakness of extant opposition parties.     

Violence and the breakdown of the political settlement: an uncertain future for Bangladesh?

Abstract

We explore the dynamics of the elite political settlement in Bangladesh after the democratic transition in 1991 and its impact on the elite interactions in the arena of competitive electoral democracy. We trace the history of how a political settlement around regime succession developed in the mid-1990s, and then experienced difficulties in multiple stages, and finally broke down in 2011. Violence was instrumentally used, by the ruling elites and the main opposition party, to influence the processes of negotiations around the succession of power. We argue that ‘partyarchy’—where political parties exert informal control of the party through formal processes and institutions—and dynastic rule prevent the political elites from reaching a stable settlement around regime succession. We also show how the changes to the rules of the game around regime succession have led to a qualitative shift in the extent and nature of violence in the political domain, and explore why democratic consolidation remains elusive.     

Democratization and electoral turnovers in sub-Saharan Africa and beyond

This study criticizes approaches equating opposition electoral victories with democratization in competitive authoritarian regimes. Not only are these approaches theoretically problematic, but there are also important empirical reasons to distinguish between electoral turnovers and democratization. The study goes on to explain why some African turnovers have been successful in bringing about democratization while others have not. This study promotes an approach in which opposition victories may be used as an independent variable that, under certain circumstances, could promote democratization. Using evidence from the cases of Senegal, Ghana, and Kenya, it is argued that electoral uncertainty caused by a low level of party institutionalization has been an important obstacle to democratization by alternation in the African context.     

The choice of electoral systems in new democracies: a case study of South Korea in 1988

Most theories about electoral system choice are based on the experiences of Western European countries, many of which shifted from majority/plurality rule to proportional representation (PR) at the turn of the twentieth century. This article aims to explain the choice of the South Korean legislative electoral system in 1988 as an example of electoral institution choices in new democracies, which may be different from those in the Western European countries. Through analysing multiple steps leading to the choice of a single-member district plurality voting system, this article suggests three potentially generalizable findings. First, in new democracies, labour parties can only induce old parties to shift to a proportional representation system if they have mobilized the working class prior to democratization. Secondly, parties in the developing world at times face unusual systems that are neither majoritarian nor fully PR. Under such unusual systems, party size would not be a reliable predictor for the party's preference over electoral institutions. Finally, when parties choose a legislative electoral institution in a presidential system, parties tend to prefer an institution that helps them in the subsequent presidential election even though the institution might harm them in the upcoming legislative election.     

Muslim welfare bodies: New avenues of representation?

ABSTRACT

A lot of ink has flown over the issue of political under-representation of Muslims in India and over affirmative action measures needed to redress this imbalance. However, a minimal amount of attention has been paid to how Muslims are finding new ways to counter this under-representation. The Ministry for Minority Welfare and subsequent creation of the Minority Welfare Department seem to have expanded the locus of representation for Muslims beyond elections, legislatures, and membership of political parties. Consequently, the number of “Muslim representatives” has increased, in addition to MPs and MLAs who strictly speaking are supposed to be “people’s representatives.” Focusing on two Muslim groups’ engagement with the minority welfare bodies, the article contends that the success or failure of Muslim appointments to state bodies is based not so much on religious differentiation as on the ruling party’s electoral strategies, and their inclusion in these bodies only reinforces their minority status without integrating them entirely in the political process.     

Political transformation in Japan as a source of insight

Abstract

This article is based on the assumption that the Japanese political system is fully comparable with the systems of other major systems, and that its analysis may afford useful insights for the understanding of political systems more generally. Its focus is upon five successive transformations of the system since the late nineteenth century that, in sequence and taken together, have created the present system. These are: (1) the revolutionary changes of the Meiji period (1868–1912), leading to modernisation, militarism, and ultimate defeat in war; (2) occupation, democracy, economic resurgence and single-party dominance (1945–1990); (3) low growth, electoral reform and neo-liberalism (1991–2006); (4) Liberal Democratic Party decline and the opposition in power (2006–2012); and (5) authoritarian leadership with weak opposition (2012 onwards). The article concludes with a discussion of three issues: (1) ambiguous aspects of strong leadership; (2) the chronic weakness of Japanese political opposition and its implications for democracy; and (3) the significance of radical transformations for the understanding of a political system.     

Electoral institutional change and democratization: You can lead a horse to water,but you can't make it drink

Drawing on evidence from first and second elections in emerging democracies, this article addresses issues pertinent to understanding the interplay between institutional design and change on the one hand and on the other hand the course of the democratization process, its background and concomitants. Because the electoral system (understood broadly, that is, not only as seat allocation rules) is often seen as an institution conducive to the legitimation of emerging ‐ and therefore fragile ‐democracies, it is important to examine how the development of the electoral system has influenced the democratic transition outcome, in a number of cases. Cases considered include Kenya, Mongolia, Nepal and Tanzania, while comparisons with countries outside the third world such as Bosnia‐and‐Herzegovina and South Africa throw additional light on the argument. By seeking to avoid both the fallacy of electomlism and the fallacy of anti‐electoralism, the article argues that the electoral system is a crucial factor behind the unsatisfactory course of the democratization process in many countries. More emphasis should be put on sustaining the different prerequisites of democracy, while simultaneously more effort should be put into the preparation of elections, in order to progress beyond simple and inadequate electoral democracy. The technical refinement of the electoral process, while far from sufficient to guarantee democratic development, can be a step in that direction. Credible and transparent elections are conducive to internal legitimacy and the dynamic of the political‐electoral process will gradually bring along more contestation, more participation, and the enjoyment of more rights and liberties.     

End Matter

Namibian elections offer useful insights for the analysis of electoral democracy in territories with histories of protracted and violent liberation struggles. The 1999 general elections, Namibia's third national polls, occurred in the aftermath of a secessionist uprising and the formation of a new opposition party with credible leaders. This article describes in detail both the campaigning and the administrative dimensions of the Namibian election. A relatively strong electoral administration could only partly offset the effects of a dominant political culture in which opponents are regarded as public enemies. Where the ruling party was historically strongest it was responsible for the most aggressive electioneering: competitive contests tended to generate more relaxed electioneering.     

Communication technology and development: can South Africa afford the information explosion?

ABSTRACT

Weare living in a world where the availability of information can make you, or the lack of it can break you. The 'information explosion', as it is sometimes called, has already changed our lives. How this affects us, and changes our environment, our economy and our lives is a fascinating issue. But does it affect everyone? Is there a possibility that some communities can be left in the dark without the availability of these masses of information?

In South Africa some major changes are taking place at the moment. It could be argued that while South Africa tries to erase the remains of apartheid and rebuild the country, the rest of the world has 'quietly' moved into the information age. A development problem in South Africa concerns the disparities among the different communities. There is still a significant difference between the information-rich, a small minority, and the information-poor, the majority of the population.

This article first describes the situation in South Africa with regard to Internet availability and accessibility and secondly gives a broad overview of the theoretical assumptions underlying computer-mediated communication from a communication sciences perspective. In conclusion, specific questions on the topic for future research in communication sciences are proposed in general and applied to conditions in South Africa as a developing country.     

Political party formation by former armed opposition groups after civil war

ABSTRACT

Under what conditions are rebel groups successfully incorporated into democratic politics when civil war ends? Using an original cross-national, longitudinal dataset, we examine political party formation by armed opposition groups over a 20-year period, from 1990 to 2009. We find that former armed opposition groups form parties in more than half of our observations. A rebel group’s pre-war political experience, characteristics of the war and how it ended outweigh factors such as the country’s political and economic traits and history. We advance a theoretical framework based on rebel leaders’ expectations of success in post-war politics, and we argue that high rates of party formation by former armed opposition groups are likely a reflection of democratic weakness rather than democratic robustness in countries emerging from conflict.     

Electoral system effects re-examined using the largest vote share variable

In the search for a less controversial pattern between electoral systems and party systems, especially the institutional conditions for multipartism, this article develops and analyses a complete post-war dataset on largest parties’ vote shares. In contrast to the vague wording in the Duvergerian literature, it defends a strong proposition that majority parties are almost always a result of disproportionality. With some rare exceptions, they are either manufactured (without a majority of popular votes) or, less frequently, held together by heterogeneous groups (indicated either by a large number of swing voters or an exceptionally restrictive system) through strategic voting. I explain the phenomenon using a theory on politicians’ incentive for office turnover and voters’ demand for party accountability, and also theorize why South Africa and Namibia are the only two outliers to the pattern.