The Effects of Changes in Dynamic Risk on Reoffending among Serious Juvenile Offenders Returning from Residential Placement

This study examines whether changes in dynamic risk during juvenile justice long-term residential placement affect recidivism. Advancing the work of prior dynamic risk change analyses, we examine a large sample of 11,891 male and 1930 female juvenile offenders while taking methodological steps to ensure successful and non-successful youth (in terms of recidivism) are (statistically) identical at admission. Specifically, we employ propensity score matching on residential placement youth who recidivate post-release and non-recidivists on static risk factors and initial dynamic risk scores assessed at admission to residential placement. Post-matching, changes in dynamic risk factors from initial assessment at admission to exit assessment at release are examined with a focus on whether those changes distinguish recidivists from non-recidivists. Separate analyses are conducted for male and female juveniles. Results indicate that changes in dynamic risk do affect recidivism likelihood, but that different factors matter for males and females. These sex-specific models allow for distinct policy recommendations.     

Juvenile Sex Offenders: Differences between Group and Solo Offenders

We report on findings from a study into differences in personality and background characteristics between juvenile sex offenders who commit their sex offenses on their own and those who do so in a group. Solo offenders were found to score significantly higher on neuroticism, impulsivity and sensation seeking, but scored lower on sociability. In addition, the solo offenders in the sample were more often recidivists for sexual offenses, and were more often themselves a victim of a sexual offense. Solo offenders were significantly older than juveniles who had committed a sexual offense with a group. On the basis of these results we recommend differential treatment for the two types of offenders.     

Comparing recidivism rates of treatment responders/nonresponders in a sample of 413 child molesters who had completed community-based sex offender treatment in the United kingdom

Analysis of psychometric data from a sample of 413 child molesters who had completed a U.K. probation-based sex offender treatment program was carried out to assess (a) the effectiveness of therapy in the short term and (b) the longer term implications of treatment in relation to sexual recidivism. It was found that 12% (51 offenders) of the sample had recidivated within 2 to 4 years. Of these recidivists, 86% (44 offenders) had been reconvicted for a sexually related offense. One hundred thirty-five offenders (33%) demonstrated a treated profile (i.e., demonstrated no offense-specific problems and few, or no, socioaffective problems at the posttreatment stage). This group was compared with a sample of offenders deemed as not responding to treatment, matched by their levels of pretreatment risk/need. It was found that a significantly smaller proportion (n = 12, 9%) of treatment responders had recidivated, compared to the treatment nonresponders (n = 20, 15%), indicating a 40% reduction in recidivism in those who had responded to treatment (effect size = .18). Matching length of treatment to the offenders' level of pretreatment risk/need (i.e., higher risk/treatment-need offenders typically undertook longer treatment) reduced the rate of recidivism among this group to the level of recidivism observed among the lower risk/need offenders.     

Assessing crossover in a sample of sexual offenders with multiple victims

Purpose . This study examined the proportion of sexual offenders in England and Wales who exhibited ‘crossover’ in their choice of victim, as defined by age, gender and relationship to the offender. It subsequently aimed to identify criminal and demographic variables predictive of crossover. Method . The sample comprised 1,345 adult male sexual offenders. All had offended against multiple victims and had been discharged from custody in England and Wales between 1992 and 1996. Offence summaries within police records were used to collect victim details for each sexual conviction for each offender, and criminal conviction histories were obtained from the Offenders Index for the sample. Results . A quarter of the sample (24.5%, n = 330) demonstrated crossover behaviour in regard to at least one of the victim dimensions examined (i.e. age, gender or relationship). Using the risk predictor Static‐99, these offenders were found to be significantly riskier than those who did not display crossover behaviour. Multinomial regression failed to identify reliable variables predictive of crossover. Conclusions . The findings from this study are likely to represent an underestimate of the prevalence of crossover within sexual offenders in England and Wales. Reasons for this are discussed, and the implications of crossover for offender risk assessment, treatment, community supervision and policing practices are explored.     

Testing the predictive utility of the STATIC‐99: A Bayes analysis

Purpose. This study applies a Bayes analysis to the probability of a particular STATIC‐99 score and its associated re‐offence probability with recidivating for a sexual offence. We examine this probability over three time frames: within 5 years; within 10 years; and within 15 years. Methods. This study was conducted using the same data from Hanson and Thornton (1999) . This dataset is constituted from four different samples: Institut Philippe Pinel (Canada) sample; Millbrook Recidivism Study (Canada) sample; Oak Ridge Division of the Penetanguishene Mental Health Center (Canada) sample; and Her Majesty's Prison Service (UK) sample. The final sample for which sufficient information was available to score the STATIC‐99 includes 1,086 sexual offenders. Bayes statistic has been used to analyse the data. Results. Results are consistent with the STATIC‐99 as a useful assessment tool. The Bayes‐generated probabilities as well as odds ratios show a consistent increase in increased likelihood of re‐offence as the score value increases. Conclusions. The Bayesian analysis of the STATIC‐99 shows that this method is very interesting in the context of risk assessment tools. This approach to risk assessment instruments may be more appropriate in the communication of analytic results as it can offer clinicians a combination of probabilities and likelihood ratios resulting a readily accessible profile of risk.     

Actuarial risk assessment and recidivism in a sample of UK intellectually disabled sexual offenders

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of three risk assessment instruments: Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) and the Rapid Risk of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), in predicting sexual recidivism among 27 intellectually disabled sex offenders. The overall sexual offence reconviction rate was 30%, while non-recidivists remained offence-free over 76 months of follow-up. Static-99 presented as performing as well as guided clinical judgements in mainstream population studies [area under the curve (AUC)=0.64] exceeding the performance of RM2000 (AUC=0.58) in predicting sexual recidivism. However, the results were not statistically significant. In contrast to previous findings, the RRASOR presented the worst level of prediction (AUC=0.42). These results highlight the need to investigate further with larger sample sizes and in conjunction with more dynamic measures of risk. Proposed relevant factors are discussed in detail.     

Pathways to sexual offense recidivism following treatment: an examination of the Ward and Hudson self-regulation model of relapse

Ward and Hudson (1998, 2000) proposed a self-regulation model of relapse in sexual offenders, which classifies offenders into one of four pathways. This study examined the validity of the model, whether sexual recidivists are characterized by one predominant pathway and offense type, and whether participants would change pathway pre- to posttreatment intervention. Twenty-five sexual offenders who had participated in a comprehensive cognitive-behavioral treatment program during a prison sentence, but committed a further sexual offense on their release from custody, participated in the study. Results supported the content validity of the model. The predominant pathway pre- and posttreatment was approach explicit. The hypothesis that participants would change pathway posttreatment was not supported. These results may have implications for the efficacy of treatment of approach-explicit sexual offenders.     

Interrater reliability of Risk Matrix 2000/s

Actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders are often used in high-stakes decision making and therefore should be subject to stringent reliability and validity testing. Furthermore, those involved in the risk assessment of sexual offenders should be aware of the factors that may affect the reliability of these instruments. The present study examined the interrater reliability of the Risk Matrix 2000/s between one field rater and one independent rater with a sample of more than 100 sexual offenders. The results indicated good interrater reliability of the tool, although reliability varies from item to item. A number of factors were identified that seem to reduce the reliability of scoring. The present findings are strengthened by examining interrater reliability of the tool in the usual practitioner context and by calculating a range of reliability statistics. Strategies are suggested to increase reliability in the use of actuarial tools in routine practice.     

Developmental Pathways in Youth Sexual Aggression and Delinquency: Risk Factors and Mediators

Childhood exposure to violence against females and male-modeled antisocial behavior were examined as risk factors for sexual aggression, and nonsexual aggression and delinquency, in a sample of 182 adolescent male sex offenders using structural equation modeling. Both risk factors produced direct and indirect effects on nonsexual aggression and delinquency with Psychosocial Deficits and Egotistical–Antagonistic Masculinity playing important mediating roles. Exposure to violence against females helped explain sexual aggression through the mediating role of Psychosocial Deficits. As hypothesized, youth who sexually offended against prepubescent children manifested greater deficits in psychosocial functioning, committed fewer offenses against strangers, and demonstrated less violence in their sexual offending than offenders against pubescent females. Findings are discussed within the context of two major evolutionary psychological concepts for explaining human sexual behavior: intrasexual selection and intersexual selection.     

Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk

Abstract

The study of risk for sexual recidivism has undergone substantial development in recent years. The foundation for advances in this area has been the use of actuarial measures to identify subgroups of offenders with different observed rates of sexual re-offending over time. An unresolved issue within this research area has been the moderating function of age in the assessment of risk. The current study examined sexual re-offending as a function of age and actuarial risk in a large sample of sexual offenders released from prison between 1990 and 2004. There was an overall decrease in the rate of sexual re-offending over the age of 50. However, a small group of offenders from the higher actuarial risk categories of the older age groups continued to re-offend at higher rates than their lower-risk peers.     

Exploring the role of locus of control in sex offender treatment

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the concept of Locus of Control (LoC) and its relationship to risk, personality disorder and treatment outcome in sexual offenders. The sample was taken from referrals to a community treatment service for sexual offenders in south-east London. One hundred and eighty-five men completed a measure of LoC at the time of assessment, of whom 74 entered the treatment programme and 39 completed a post-treatment LoC measure. At assessment, child molesters and non-contact offenders had a significantly more external LoC than rapists, and LoC was also significantly associated with cluster A and C personality disorder traits, as well as the presence of traits in two or more personality disorder clusters. LoC was not associated with risk measures or compliance with treatment. Once outliers were removed, a significant change was seen in post-treatment LoC scores, with most change occurring in an increasingly internal direction.     

Referrers' views of structured professional judgement risk assessment of sexual offenders: A qualitative study

Abstract

The Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol is a structured professional judgement (SPJ) tool that aids risk assessment of sexual violence. It is widely used internationally. The aim of this study was to explore the clinical practice of SPJ risk assessment and risk management through qualitative analysis of the accounts of users of these assessments. Questionnaires and semi-structured interviews were conducted with a sample of 31 criminal justice professionals in southeast Scotland. The participants' accounts were explored using the framework method. Five themes emerged from this analysis: informing risk management; confirming what was known and giving weight; understanding personality; treatment; and the usefulness and limitations of risk assessment. The participants reported that the assessments were influential with respect to risk management. The study revealed some important implications for service development. The authors suggest possible future use of the framework method in research investigating the risk assessment of sexual violence.     

What is grievance thinking and how can we measure this in sexual offenders?

Purpose. This study proposes and examines a three‐stage model of the grievance process, one of the dynamic risk factors related to risk of sexual recidivism, and aims to evaluate some of the existing measures of this construct. Methods. The research used a sample of 322 male sexual offenders who had completed a cognitive–behavioural programme that aims to reduce recidivism in higher‐risk sexual offenders (as measured using a static actuarial tool). Participants completed two questionnaires measuring aspects of grievance thinking pre‐ and post‐treatment. Results. The results indicated some support for stages 1 and 2 of the proposed model. Contrary to the study hypotheses, results indicated that both measures used have similar psychometric properties. Pre‐ to post‐change analyses suggest that the custodial treatment programme may be having some effect on grievance thinking. However, generally offenders' scores on both measures were low pre‐ and post‐treatment and as a result, according to individual change analyses, the majority did not demonstrate reliable or clinically significant change. Those who were classed as high scorers on either measure did, however, demonstrate such change. Conclusions. Further exploration of a three‐stage model of grievance is warranted. It appears that current measures of grievance in sexual offenders are not adequate to capture this concept fully.     

Socially desirable responding and psychometric assessment of dynamic risk in sexual offenders against children

Does socially desirable responding (SDR) represent a threat to the validity of dynamic risk assessment in sex offenders’ self-reports? We studied a sample of men (N?=?218) who completed a psychometric assessment battery while enrolled at Kia Marama, a prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders against children. SDR, as measured by the Marlowe-Crowne scale, was elevated compared to non-offender samples, increased from pre- to post-treatment, and was negatively correlated with dynamic risk (rs?=??.30 to ?.40), consistent with previous research. Measures of dynamic risk factors derived from the psychometric battery were correlated with sexual recidivism, but correlations were little changed when variance associated with SDR was removed using a regression procedure [Mills, J. F., &; Kroner, D. G. (2006). Impression management and self-report among violent offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(2), 178–192.]. These results suggest that there is a substantial component of the variance in psychometric self-reports of sexual offenders that is associated with SDR (approximately 10%), but that it does not compromise the predictive or construct validity of dynamic risk measures derived from these reports.     

Sexual and violent recidivism by offender type and actuarial risk: reoffending rates for rapists,child molesters and mixed-victim offenders

Abstract

The current study examines sexual and violent reoffence rates for a sample of 2474 sexual offenders over an average of 15 years following release from prison. Reoffence rates are reported as a function of the offenders' victim type and level of risk as assessed by the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale, a computer scored measure of relevant historical risk factors. Observed sexual recidivism rates for offenders with child victims, adult victims, and mixed victims were quite similar. Results indicate that offenders with exclusively female child victims not only showed a lower rate of sexual reoffending, but that the reoffence rates were relatively low across all levels of actuarial risk. In contrast, those with male child victims and adult victims showed a pronounced escalation of reoffence rates as actuarial risk increased. Results also indicated that adult victim offenders are less consistent in the victim type of their reoffences, with 37% sexually reoffending against child victims. Finally, combined rates of sexual and violent reoffending were particularly high for those with adult victim sexual offence histories. Risk assessment and public policy implications are discussed.     

Assessing reconviction,reoffending and recidivism in a sample of UK sexual offenders

Purpose. The rate of sexual reconviction for sexual offenders is known to be low. Sexual reconviction, however, is currently the most commonly used outcome measure in sex offender treatment evaluation studies. It is expected that sex offender treatment programmes will reduce the likelihood of reconviction amongst participants. A low base rate of sexual reconviction means that any reduction in reconviction (which could be attributed to treatment) will be small and unlikely to be statistically significant. This study aimed to assess other offence‐related outcomes for sexual offenders, in addition to reconviction. Methods. The sample comprised 173 sexual offenders who had completed a community sex offender treatment programme. Follow‐up information was collected forthe sample from programme files containing multi‐agency information. Official reconviction rates were also calculated using both Home Office and police data. Results. Collecting evidence of any offence‐related sexual behaviour during this study multiplied the sample's sexual reconviction rate by a factor of 5.3. Conclusions. The results show that broadening the outcome measure under observation indicates a higher level of offence‐related sexual behaviour displayed by sexual offenders than reflected by reconviction data. These results have implications for the outcomes measured in treatment evaluation research for sexual offenders.     

To what extent does civil commitment reduce sexual recidivism? Estimating the selective incapacitation effects in Minnesota

PurposeThis study examines the selective incapacitation effects of civil commitment on sexual reoffending among 105 Minnesota sex offenders who were civilly committed between 2004 and 2006.MethodsThe Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3, a sexual recidivism risk assessment instrument, was used to estimate what the four-year sexual recidivism rate would have been for these offenders had they been released to the community. Integration of Survival with Quality of Life (iSQoL) software was used to extrapolate the survival curves over a 50-year period to develop a lifetime sexual recidivism estimate.ResultsIf the 105 civilly committed sex offenders had been released to the community, an estimated nine percent would have been reconvicted of a new sex offense within four years. Civilly committing these offenders therefore likely reduced the overall four-year sexual recidivism rate by 12 percent. The results further suggest that if these offenders had been released to the community, an estimated 28 percent would be rearrested for another sex offense within their lifetime.ConclusionsTo better align the costs of civil commitment with its public safety benefits, states operating these programs should emphasize the use of intermediate alternatives in the community for a more positive return on investment.     

How useful are psychometric scores in predicting recidivism for treated sex offenders?

This study examined the relationship between psychometric test scores, psychometric test profiles, and sexual and/or violent reconviction. A sample of 3,402 convicted sexual offenders who attended a probation service-run sexual offender treatment programme in the community completed a battery of psychometric tests pre- and posttreatment. Using Cox regression, posttreatment scores on measures of self-esteem, an ability to relate to fictional characters, and recognition of risk factors were, individually, predictive of recidivism. When psychometric tests were grouped into dynamic risk domains, only the pretreatment scores of the domain labelled socioaffective functioning (SAF) predicted recidivism and added predictive power to a static risk assessment. The number of risk domains that were dysfunctional pretreatment also predicted recidivism outcome; however, this did not add predictive power to a static risk assessment tool. Possible explanations for the superiority of pre- over posttreatment scores in predicting reconviction are discussed, and directions for further research considered.     

Demographic and abuse characteristics in adolescent male sexual offenders with “special needs”

Adolescent sexual offenders with “special needs” are thought to pose different challenges for therapists working clinically. However, this population has received little attention in the literature, with the research in this area very limited. This study looked at the demographic and abuse characteristics of 24 adolescent sexual offenders with “special needs” who were compared with a group of 155 male adolescent sexual offenders with no special needs. Significant differences were found between the two groups. Those with special needs had higher levels of all forms of abuse, and differences were also found on some sub-scales of the Child Behaviour Checklist. Implications for research and clinical practice are discussed.     

Sexual predator civil commitment: a comparison of selected and released offenders

This study compared two groups of sex offenders who were considered for civil commitment under Florida's Jimmy Ryce Act: Two hundred twenty-nine sex offenders who were recommended by forensic evaluators to be civilly committed and 221 sex offenders who were recommended for release. It was hypothesized that selected offenders would be more likely to display risk factors for sex offense recidivism than those who did not meet criteria. Data analyses revealed that selected offenders, as a group, scored significantly higher on actuarial risk assessment instruments. There were also significant differences between the groups on other risk factors that have been empirically correlated with sexual recidivism. Selected offenders had higher frequencies of paraphilia diagnoses and antisocial personality. These findings supported the hypotheses and suggested that evaluators are correctly selecting for civil commitment those sex offenders who have a mental abnormality predisposing them to sexual violence and who are at higher risk for reoffense.