Conflicts between east European states and minorities in an age of democracy

Conflict between dominant and subordinate ethnic groups in eastern Europe has greatly complicated efforts to build stable and just democratic systems in the region. Leaders of new states as well as rulers whose authority extends from the communist era have attempted to create political systems where competition is clearly along ethnic lines. Polarisation and violence have resulted from the manipulation of ethnic feeling, but there are also a range of factors which have encouraged majority and minority representatives to show mutual restraint at crucial moments.

The internationalisation of East European nationality disputes and the gradual acceptance by a number of states of group rights to stand alongside individual ones, have cooled down a number of disputes and possibly forestalled new ones. But the national question will be a troubling one for many still‐fragile democracies unless strong external incentives are offered which encourage states to conciliate internal minorities and estranged neighbours.     

NATO expansion to Northern Europe

Finland and Sweden have been in the forefront of bilateral aid efforts to the neighbouring Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) especially in the promotion of economic and regional integration. Although Finland and Sweden have refused to contemplate NATO membership themselves, their neighbours are all seeking to enhance their security through NATO membership. It is unlikely that the Baltic States will become part of the Alliance in the short‐term, but new forms of military co‐operation between NATO and its former adversaries are taking place. With the regional security situation in greater flux than at any time during the post‐World War II period, Finland and Sweden are thus being asked to reevaluate their traditional policies of neutrality and non‐alignment. This article seeks to show some of the contemporary security problems facing Finland and Sweden and the range of policies which both Finland and Sweden can pursue.     

Moldova and Transdniestria: Painful past,deadlocked present,uncertain future

The ethnic conflict between Slavs and Moldovans in the Moldovan region of Transdniestria is one of the lesser‐known post‐Soviet conflicts, as, mercifully, its scale never reached that of conflict in Chechnya or Nagorny‐Karabakh. Nevertheless, this conflict, which started in 1990 after the Russian‐speaking Slavic minority on the left bank of the Dniester declared its independence from the Romanian‐speaking right bank, has claimed hundreds of lives. Today, it remains unresolved; a political settlement has not been achieved. The frozen ceasefire in the region simply preserved the status quo which is virtual independence for the self‐declared, but not recognised by any other state, Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), or Dniester Republic, from Moldova.

This work seeks to attempt to answer the following questions: what were the roots of the ethno‐political conflict in Moldova ? What were the circumstances that prompted the escalation of the conflict into bloodshed? To what extent did external forces influence events, and, finally, what are the prospects for a political settlement in the republic?     

External Intervention in Ethnic Conflict

Recently, ethnicity has received greater attention from international conflict scholars. This study explores a new aspect of how ethnic composition of states and the power of ethnic kin affect external state interventions in ethnic conflicts. Here it is hypothesized that states with dominant ethnic groups but still-significant ethnic minorities are expected to be more prone to intervention in ethnic conflict than states without one of these two characteristics. A new measure is proposed to capture such variation in ethnic composition more precisely. Looking at large-N panel data, it is found that ethnically fractionalized states with dominant ethnic groups are indeed the most likely to intervene in ethnic conflicts. Additionally, the power of the embattled ethnic kin minority, as determined by its settlement patterns in the host state, also increases the likelihood of intervention. Traditional variables like proximity and capability retain statistical significance. However, ethnic variables have the strongest effects on interventions in ethnic conflict.     

戈尔巴乔夫、叶利钦与苏联解体

戈尔巴乔夫在改革之初并没有注意到苏联的民族问题,在改革的过程中更多强调的是给公民以民主权利,而没有想到改革不合理的联盟体制,错过了改革联盟的良机,使波罗的海三国争权益的运动发展成要求独立的运动,戈尔巴乔夫没有找到好方法阻止这三国的独立。叶利钦在波罗的海三国独立问题上起了推波助澜的作用,他所领导的俄罗斯联邦争主权和最终抛弃联盟的行为,直接导致了苏联彻底解体。     

Convergent Geography and Divergent Identities: A decade of transformation in the Baltic states

In an incredibly short period of time the Baltic States transformed themselves from former 'Soviet republics' into potential EU member states. This article attempts to interpret foreign and security policies of the Baltic States as an embodiment of their emerging political identity. The focus is mainly on the issue of how 'Europe' is being integrated into the national identities of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This analysis leads to the conclusion that the Baltic States' political identity is constituted mainly within the framework of the meanings of nation-state discourse characterised by the East-West opposition. However, their participation in the EU integration process weakens the symbolic link between the state and the nation and creates tensions between the demands of identity and the actual practices of integration. This might be a hindrance to the Europeanisation of the Baltic States' identity and their international socialisation.     

Liberalism and geopolitics in EU–Russia relations: rereading the “Baltic factor”

Contrary to some expectations, the Baltic states’ accession to the EU in 2004 was not followed by an improvement in their relations with Russia. Instead, the Baltic states became known as the “troublemakers” of EU–Russia relations. This was commonly explained by their history and national identity, which contributed to an understanding of the Baltic concerns as marginal. The Ukraine crisis brought a reaction of “I told you so” by the Baltic states that for many years had been warning the West about Russia’s expansionist ambitions. This article explores the ideational underpinnings of the gap between the Baltic states’ perceptions of and relations with Russia on the one hand and mainstream views in Europe on the other. It identifies liberal interdependence, democratic peace, and realist geopolitics as key ideas that have framed the EU’s and Baltic states’ perceptions of Russia. In the vein of constructivist foreign policy analysis, these ideational structures are seen to condition the EU’s and Baltic states’ interests and policies vis-à-vis Russia. An analysis of the “Baltic factor” helps to illuminate the contradictions and shortcomings in the EU’s Russia policy and review its ideational basis which is now in need of a strategic rethink.     

A defence model for the Baltic states

It is often argued that the Baltic states should not be accepted in NATO because they are not defensible and NATO forces would not be able to intervene in time if they were attacked. This article presents a possible Baltic defence concept which appears to be well adapted to Baltic terrain and Baltic material and manpower resources, and which should at the very least impose significant delay (weeks) and heavy losses on a massive attack. Friendly intervention could be in the form of air strikes against aggressor columns blocked on the roads.     

国家认同与族群认同:以马来西亚为例

国家与族群具有不同的结构与功能,因而国家认同与族群认同的要素,特别是二者的认同基础存在较大的差异。正是这种差异决定着二者关系的基本形态。国家的公共性要求它不应该将政治政策偏向任何一个族群。族群平等是国家认同与族群认同的平衡点,否则,可能会导致政策所损害的族群对国家存在意义的质疑。马来西亚独立后,特别是20世纪70年代后,实施的正是偏向马来人的政策,从而造成非马来人对国家的不满。     

9·11恐怖事件中的美国华人

震惊世界的“9·11”事件对美国华人社会而言,不仅是一次灾难,也是一次团结起来让美国人重新认识华人社会的机会。     

Unwelcome Neighbors: Shared Ethnicity and International Conflict During the Cold War

This article assesses the role of ethnic demographics and domestic ethnic rebellion in promoting international conflict. Three of the variables introduced examine dyads within which a common ethnic group exists. These variables are coded to distinguish the presence of a trans-border ethnic group that exists as a majority in both states; a majority in one state and a minority in the other; or a minority in both states. The pooled dataset, which covers the years 1951–1991, is analyzed using different types of data to account for both broad and narrow conceptions of ethnicity. The results indicate a strong and significant increase in dyadic conflict when two states share an ethnic group and an ethnic majority exists in at least one of the states. Ethnic rebellion is also found to significantly harm interstate relations when an ethnic diaspora is involved. Associations found between ethnicity and international conflict are most pronounced when international disputes involve fatalities.     

Nordic involvement in the Baltic states security: Needs,response and success

Since regaining their independence in 1991, the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have sought to bolster their security by applying for NATO membership. This article examines their security context and the security challenges they face. It shows the attempts by the Nordic states to address these problems by offering assistance to the three countries, by supporting them in international institutions and by introducing them to new concepts of security. Thus the Nordic states have tried to ease confrontation in the Baltic, and have created a Nordic project of some importance.     

The Baltic predicament in the shadow of Russia’s war in Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has once again reinvigorated the debate about the likelihood of conflict spreading into NATO’s frontline states, namely the Baltic republics. This article argues that somewhat paradoxically, the Baltics currently find themselves in both the best of times and the worst of times. On the one hand, with each “turn of the screw”—Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and 2022—Moscow has ensured a greater allied presence across the Baltics. Still, despite this and Russia’s substantial losses incurred in the war, the Baltic lawmakers will not write off Russia as a military threat any time soon.     

艰难的睦邻之路——苏联解体以来的俄罗斯与波罗的海三国

苏联解体至今,随着政治经济转轨的完成和双方国家利益与外交政策的磨合,俄罗斯与波罗的海三国走出了"文明离婚"的困境,步入了务实合作的道路,但是还没有建立起睦邻友好关系.俄罗斯对波罗的海三国政策缺乏连贯性和协调性,受到北约因素和欧盟因素的深刻影响,具有政治导向性.影响俄罗斯与渡罗的海三国关系发展的不利因素包括讲俄语居民地位问题、三国的历史记忆和民族情感、三国的反俄政治势力;有利因素包括俄罗斯同欧洲长期合作的政策取向、三国与俄罗斯发展经贸合作的互利性.在未来相当长的时期内,俄罗斯与波罗的海三国难以建立真正的睦邻友好关系.     

‘Unity in diversity'? Coalition politics in India (with special reference to Kerala)

India is the biggest of the very few post‐colonial (and non‐Western) states to have sustained a competitive multi‐party democratic system of government. But as India completed half a century of independence, it was also beginning a new chapter in its democratic development. The steady decline of the Congress Party appeared to presage a fresh phase in which the emerging patterns of political diversity and competition seemed to make coalition government an unavoidable necessity. This articles considers the record of coalition governments in India, both at the centre and in the state with the longest experience of such governments ‐ Kerala. In doing so it seeks to identify the factors that help determine the success of coalition politics, partly with reference to the features of the consociational model that has been mooted as offering one possible way of resolving problems of democratic governance in plural societies.     

Acting small in a large state's world: Russia and the Baltic states

The interest in small states ebbs and flows as important international affairs include small states. Russia's actions and policies vis-à-vis Ukraine, and the resultant intensified apprehension among Russia's smaller neighbours, aim the proverbial microscope at the size and power discrepancies between states. Russia, by most metrics, is a large state and the Baltic states, by those same metrics, are small states. Small-state scholars expect large and small states to act differently. However, the case of Russia and the Baltic states indicates that large and small states do not, in fact, act all that different. This being the case, this article calls into question many of the assumptions made by small-state scholars about the difference between large- and small-state action and argues for changes within small-state studies as a subdiscipline of the larger international relations discipline.     

Excerpts from research study ‘weapons of mass destruction and terrorism: Proliferation by non‐state actors’

In the wake of the Cold War, a new world disorder seems to be emerging wherein the legitimacy of many states is being challenged from within by increasing non‐state calls for self‐determination from the likes of religious cults, hate groups, isolationist movements, ethnic groups and revivalist movements. These movements often prey on the insecurities of the population, offering to fill psychological, sociological, political or religious security needs of those who would join them. Religious oriented groups appear to share a common ideological thread that rejects existing social, economic and political structure demanding a structural revision of the world, a world where they become the authoritarian, dominant influence. Emanating from these movements will be the ‘Post Modern Terrorists’ who possess a ‘ripeness’ to threaten use of weapons of mass destruction.

This article concerns asymmetric warfare: terrorism, specifically Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) terrorism. It argues that the terrorist WMD threat will emanate from non‐state groups operating under a veneer of religion and ethnic‐racist hate. These groups, plus the occasional cult, are the most likely candidates to threaten use of weapons of mass destruction in a mass casualty causing ‘super‐terrorist act’.     

Democratization in Bosnia: The limits of civil society building strategies

For many commentators, the construction of civil society in East European states is considered a precondition for the development of consolidated democratic institutions. Nowhere is this more the case than within Bosnia‐Herzegovina, where ethnic and nationalist identification indicate a deeply politically segmented society. To challenge this segmentation international institutions are providing financial and technical support to a growing civil society sector based on non‐governmental organizations. Research into the civil society support work of the Democratization Branch of the Organization for Security and Co‐operation in Europe indicates that the predominantly middle‐class constituency of these groups reflects the extensive external international regulation of the new state under the Dayton Peace Agreement. However, the extension of autonomy and self‐government may well create more fruitful conditions for the growth of civil society alternatives.     

Security and an Ersatz identity

From the time of the emergence of the two German states in 1949, national questions and security issues were closely linked. The conjoining stemmed in part from Germany's unusual situation as a divided nation, and the ultimate dependence of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) upon the United States for guardianship and protection. West Germans tended to suppress a sense of nationhood, and to identify with Western institutions, especially the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Economic Community (EEC). Membership in the latter allowed Germans to increasingly regard themselves as Europeans first and foremost, thereby avoiding delicate feelings of national identity. NATO not only accorded protection to the FRG, but also institutionalized and enshrined an affinity with the United States. Over time, a maturing process occurred whereby Germans would reconsider their identity and deliberate about their sense of nationhood.     

The problem of immigration in Russia

"The article examines the threefold immigration problem currently facing Russia: the influx of refugees from the developing world who hope eventually to reach the West, and the large numbers of non-Russians and ethnic Russians entering the country from the other former Soviet republics. The institutions established recently to tackle immigration are insufficiently funded and often find themselves in conflict with other agencies, both Russian and international. Legislation on the status of immigrants is also confused. The most pressing issue, however, is that of Russian immigration into Russia. This has implications for domestic policies: the immigrants are regarded as a potential solution to the problem of rural depopulation and are prevented from entering densely populated regions. The exodus of ethnic Russians from the other former Soviet republic may also affect Russia's relations with these countries, which it has accused of discriminating against their Russian populations." (SUMMARY IN ENG)