Stopping the revolving door: a meta-analysis on the effectiveness of interventions for criminally involved individuals with major mental disorders

Faced with high and increasing rates of mental disorder within the criminal justice system (CJS), a range of interventions have been implemented in an effort to prevent continued involvement in criminal activities among this population. A meta-analytic review was undertaken to consider the effectiveness of interventions for criminally involved adults with a mental disorder targeting either improved criminal justice or mental health outcomes. Furthermore, characteristics that were hypothesized to predict better outcomes were examined. Studies that considered sex offender interventions, or focused solely on antisocial personality, intellectual and cognitive, or substance use disorders were excluded. Results assuming a fixed-effects model combining 37 effect sizes from 25 studies (N = 15,678) support the effectiveness of these interventions in terms of reductions in any CJS involvement (d = 0.19 excluding one outlier). Interventions had no significant effect on an aggregate mental health outcome (d = 0.00). However, when considering distinct mental health outcomes, intervention participants had significantly better functioning (d = 0.20) and fewer symptoms (d = 0.12). There were no significant effects of the interventions on mental health service or medication use. Moderator analyses identified seven sample, intervention, and design characteristics that were related to the magnitude of the effect sizes for criminal justice outcomes, and suggest implications for service provision, policy, and research. Results suggested some relationship between intervention effects on mental health and criminal justice reinvolvement, although future research is needed in this area, especially given the absence of mental health outcome data in many studies.     

Evaluating a natural experiment in alcohol policy

Research Summary
This study examines the effects of a dramatic change in alcohol licensing policy on the practice of liquor retailing across a metropolitan urban region. The policy was enacted to remove fixed closing times and to install staggered closing times across regions where it potentially would reduce violent crime and disorder. We found great variation in the extent to which the provisions of the policies were installed as intended.
Policy Implications
The findings suggest that prior consideration for how policy interventions will be applied to real-world settings is important to the validity of research evaluations. Understanding and monitoring variation in the implementation of an intervention is a vital prerequisite to the evaluation of outcomes. Without knowledge of the real-world application of an intervention, researchers risk attributing causal effects to a prevention initiative that might have been absent or only partially received.     

Counterterrorism and Radical Eco-Groups: A Context for Exploring the Series Hazard Model

Objective

This study examines whether radical eco-groups have been deterred by legal sanctions. From a rational choice framework, I argue that members of these groups weigh costs and benefits. I measure an increase in costs, or an objective deterrence effect, through four federal sentencing acts targeted at reducing the criminal behavior of these groups [the tree-spiking clause of the Anti-Drug Abuse Act (ADA), the Animal Enterprise Protection Act (AEPA), the Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act (AEDPA), and the Animal Enterprise Terrorism Act (AETA)] and hypothesize that this legislation decreased the hazard of subsequent attacks.

Methods

This research is a quasi-experimental design utilizing the 1,068 illegal incidents perpetrated in the name of the environment, animal, or both as extracted from the Eco-Incidents Database. Using series hazard modeling, I examine the time until the next incident, serious incident, and ideologically specific incident in relation to dummy variables operationalizing the enactment dates of the above legislation.

Results

All in all, the results are somewhat consistent with a rational choice framework and my hypotheses. The ADA decreased the hazard of another attack (11 %) and environment-only attack (15 %), while at the same time increasing the hazard of a terrorist, damage, and animal-related attack. AETA decreased the hazard of all (47 %), damage (42 %), and the behavior it was aimed at, that of animal-only incidents (52 %). However, neither the AEPA, nor AEDPA had a significant effect on any of the outcomes.

Conclusions

Overall, radical eco-groups were deterred by legal sanctions, but these findings are legislation and outcome specific in addition to including displacement effects.     

Testing Integration of Macroeconomic Time Series in Transitional Socialist Economies. A Modification of Perron Test

The presence of structural breaks reduces the power of integration tests. A number of methods were suggested to improve the statistical properties of integration tests in the presence of structural breaks. The most known are Perron tests, which allow to test for the level of integration of time series with one structural break. Perron tests allow for two types of structural breaks: additive outlier an innovative outlier. These tests are, however, not very useful in testing the level of integration of macroeconomic time series in countries in transition from centrally-planned to market economy. In such case one should expect two structural breaks to affect the time series: one at the beginning and one at the end of the transformation process. Test that allows for two additive outlier type structural breaks in time series is developed in this paper. This test has superior power as compared to standard Dickey-Fuller and Perron tests. This paper provides asymptotic distribution as well as finite sample properties of proposed test. Therefore practitioners receive a reliable tool for analyzing macroeconomic processes in transitional economies.     

A Time Series Modeling Approach in Risk Appraisal of Violent and Sexual Recidivism

For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.     

Are counter-terrorism strategies effective? The results of the Campbell systematic review on counter-terrorism evaluation research

The events of September 11th have led to massive increases in personal, commercial, and governmental expenditures on anti-terrorism strategies, as well as a proliferation of programs designed to fight terrorism. These increases in spending and program development have focused attention on the most significant and central policy question related to these interventions: Are these programs effective? To explore this question, this study reports the results of a Campbell Collaboration systematic review on evaluation research of counter-terrorism strategies. Not only did we discover an almost complete absence of evaluation research on counter-terrorism interventions, but from those evaluations that we could find, it appears that some interventions either did not achieve the outcomes sought or sometimes increased the likelihood of terrorism occurring. The findings dramatically emphasize the need for government leaders, policy makers, researchers, and funding agencies to support both outcome evaluations of these programs as well as efforts to develop an infrastructure to foster counter-terrorism evaluation research.     

Pitfalls in the Use of Time Series Methods to Study Deterrence and Capital Punishment

Objectives

Evaluate the use of various time series methods to measure the deterrence effect of capital punishment.

Methods

The analysis of the time series approach to deterrence is conducted at two levels. First, the mathematical foundations of time series methods are described and the link between the time series properties of aggregate homicide and execution series and individual decision making is developed. Second, individual studies are examined for logical consistency.

Results

The analysis concludes that time series methods used to study the deterrence effects of capital punishment suffer from fundamental limitations and fail to provide credible evidence. The common limitation of these studies is their lack of attention to identification problems. Suggestions are made as to directions for future work that may be able to mitigate the weaknesses of the current literature.

Conclusions

Time series studies of capital punishment suffer from sufficiently serious identification problems that existing empirical findings are compatible with either the presence or the absence of a deterrent effect.     

TESTING A RATIONAL CHOICE MODEL OF AIRLINE HIJACKINGS*

Using data that combines information from the Federal Aviation Administration, the RAND Corporation and a newly developed database on global terrorist activity, we are able to examine trends in 1,101 attempted aerial hijackings that occurred around the world from 1931 to 2003. We have especially complete information for 828 hijackings that occurred before 1986. Using a rational choice theoretical framework, we use continuous‐time survival analysis to estimate the impact of several major counterhijacking interventions on the hazard of differently motivated hijacking attempts and logistic regression analysis to model the predictors of successful hijackings. Some of these interventions use certainty‐based strategies of target hardening to reduce the perceived likelihood of success. Others focus on raising the perceived costs of hijacking by increasing the severity of punishment. We also assess which strategies were most effective in deterring hijackers whose major purpose was related to terrorism. We found support for the conclusion that new hijacking attempts were less likely to be undertaken when the certainty of apprehension was increased through metal detectors and law enforcement at passenger checkpoints. We also found that fewer hijackers attempted to divert airliners to Cuba once that country made it a crime to hijack flights. Our results support the contagion view that hijacking rates significantly increase after a series of hijackings closely clustered in time—but only when these attempts were successful. Finally, we found that the policy interventions examined here significantly decreased the likelihood of nonterrorist but not that of terrorist hijackings.     

Promoting Gender Equality: A Systematic Review of Interventions

More than four decades have passed since the United Nation’s Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) was adopted. Now is an opportune time to consider whether the interventions seeking to realise CEDAW’s aspirations have brought us closer to achieving gender equality. This systematic review aimed to identify and synthesise evidence for the effectiveness of social justice, cognitive, or behaviour-change interventions that sought to reduce gender inequality, gender bias, or discrimination against women or girls. Interventions could be implemented in any context, with any mode of delivery and duration, if they measured gender equity or discrimination outcomes, and were published in English in peer-reviewed journals. Papers on violence against women and sexuality were not eligible. Seventy-eight papers reporting qualitative (n?=?36), quantitative (n?=?23), and multi-methods (n?=?19) research projects met the eligibility criteria after screening 7,832 citations identified from psycINFO, ProQuest, Scopus searches, reference lists and expert recommendations. Findings were synthesised narratively. Improved gender inclusion was the most frequently reported change (n?=?39), particularly for education and media interventions. Fifty percent of interventions measuring social change in gender equality did not achieve beneficial effects. Most gender mainstreaming interventions had only partial beneficial effects on outcomes, calling into question their efficacy in practice. Twenty-eight interventions used education and awareness-raising strategies, which also predominantly had only partial beneficial effects. Overall research quality was low to moderate, and the key findings created doubt that interventions to date have achieved meaningful change. Interventions may not have achieved macrolevel change because they did not explicitly address meso and micro change. We conclude with a summary of the evidence for key determinants of the promotion of gender equality, including a call to address men’s emotional responses (micro) in the process of achieving gender equality (micro/meso/macrolevels).

     

The Ideological Congruence Illusion: The Impact of Valence

Considerable evidence has been generated to establish that “ideological congruence,” that is, a close matching of government policy positions with median left‐right voter opinion, generally prevails in liberal democracies. Based on a cross‐national analysis of election survey data, this article challenges that view and elaborates an alternative perspective. In this perspective, nonpolicy or valence considerations strongly influence vote choices and electoral outcomes in a directional sense—sometimes favoring the Left overall, sometimes the Right. Partly as a result, government positions typically deviate substantially from median opinion, forming a pattern that is clearly bilateralist or two‐sided rather than center‐concentrated.     

The Tort Remedy in Search and Seizure Cases: A Case Study in Juror Decision Making

Civil suits for damage awards against police officers alleged to have engaged in illegal searches have long been suggested as an alternative to the exclusionary rule as a remedy for police misconduct. A review of empirical literature on the incidence and outcomes of such suits suggests that defendant officers often prevail and that the awards do not seem large enough to produce the punishment and deterrence effect often claimed by proponents of the tort remedy. Using an experimental technique involving simulated trials and adults called for jury service as subjects, we examine the effects of two procedural aspects of such suits on juror awards. The extent of municipal liability and the substitution of the U.S. government as plaintiff do not appear to affect the incidence or size of compensatory or punitive damage awards. Denying jurors information about the outcome of the search does appear likely to increase damage awards. The article both explores factors affecting juror decision-making in these cases and illustrates the utility and limitations of the experimental method for testing suggested policy innovations.     

Managed Floating as a Monetary Policy Strategy

Although there seems to be a broad consensus among economists that purely floating or completely fixed exchange rates (the so-called corner solutions) are the only viable alternatives of exchange rate management, many countries do not behave according to this paradigm and adopt a strategy within the broad spectrum of exchange rate regimes that is limited by the two corner solutions. Many of these intermediate regimes are characterized by significant foreign exchange market interventions and a certain degree of exchange rate flexibility with non-preannounced exchange rate targets. While academic research in this area usually concentrates on some specific aspects of intermediate regimes (such as the effectiveness of interventions or institutional aspects), managed floating has rarely been analyzed as a comprehensive monetary policy strategy. In this paper, we present a monetary policy framework in which central banks simultaneously use the exchange rate and the interest rate as operating targets of monetary policy. We explain the mechanics of foreign exchange market interventions and sterilization and we explain why a central bank has an interest of controlling simultaneously the two operating targets. We derive the monetary policy rules for the two operating targets from a simple open economy macro model in which the uncovered interest parity condition and the monetary conditions index play a central role.     

背书连续认定规则之探讨

背书连续的认定是一项重要的票据业务和司法审判活动。由于背书连续的涵义具有广延性,加上我国认定背书连续的票据法规则存在一定程度上的模糊性,使得认定背书连续的实际操作存在较大灵活性和可调控性,为付款人拒付票款留出了足够的空间,致使持票人票据权利的实现失去预见性,从而阻碍了票据在我国的流通。为此应完善制度,以实现背书连续认定的规范性。     

Evidence on the Effectiveness of Juvenile Court Sanctions

Purpose

The past decade has been witness to a proliferation of calls for evidence-based juvenile court sanctions—including various programs, interventions, services, and strategies or approaches—that reduce recidivism and improve mental health, drug dependency, and education outcomes. At the same time, an emerging body of work has identified “proven,” “evidence-based,” “best practice,” or, more generally, “effective” efforts to achieve these outcomes. Even so, grounds for concern exist regarding the evidence-base for these and other sanctions.

Methods

This paper describes the heterogeneity of sanctioning within juvenile justice and argues that, despite substantial advances in research, the heterogeneity severely delimits the generalizability of evaluations to date. It also raises questions about how much is in fact known about the effectiveness of many juvenile justice sanctions.

Conclusion

Extant research offers grounds for optimism. Even so, explicit articulation of the limitations of this research and the need for studies that examine external validity is important for developing evidence about “what works” in juvenile justice. Implications for research and policy are discussed.     

Explaining the UCR-NCVS Convergence: a Time Series Analysis

The study intends to explain the convergence of the UCR and NCVS data series (1973–2008). Hypothesized explanatory variables include increased police productivity, change in people’s attitudes toward crime and the police, demographic changes, changes in the measurements used in data collections, and the advancement of telecommunication tools. The time series models with relevant predictor variables are estimated to explain the convergence of the two crime data series in five different crime categories. The results show that an increase in the total number of employees in the police, changes in measurements, especially the methodological changes adopted in the victimization survey in 1992, and changing attitudes toward crime and the police affect the relationship between the two crime data series and may have helped the convergence of the two. We argue that (1) the convergence of the two crime data series is not a mere convergence of methodological inadequacies resulting from the declining quality of the victimization survey and (2) all the predictor variables only partially affect the convergence of the two crime data series. Methodological limitations of this study are also addressed.     

Informal social support interventions and their role in violence prevention: an agenda for future evaluation

There is increasing interest among policymakers and practitioners in tapping the potential of family, friends, volunteers, peer support groups, and mutual aid organizations to help prevent violence. The popularity of these informal social support (ISS) interventions stems, in part, from their flexibility, responsiveness to individual needs, and perceived low cost. However, there is still limited understanding of whether and how ISS interventions can improve social support, reduce violence, or save money. Furthermore, mobilizing and sustaining ISS interventions appears to be difficult, particularly for families living in high-risk environments. Rigorous and creative evaluations of ISS interventions are needed to inform policy decisions and refine program development and implementation. Focusing on the field of child maltreatment, we describe different kinds of ISS interventions and outline an evaluation agenda that includes core research questions and evaluation challenges and strategies.     

Do Term Limits Restrain State Fiscal Policy? Approaches for Causal Inference in Assessing the Effects of Legislative Institutions

Scholars of state politics are often interested in the causal effects of legislative institutions on policy outcomes. For example, during the 1990s a number of states adopted term limits for state legislators. Advocates of term limits argued that this institutional reform would alter state policy in a number of ways, including limiting state expenditures. We highlight a number of research design issues that complicate attempts to estimate the effect of institutions on state outcomes by addressing the question of term limits and spending. In particular, we focus on (1) treatment effect heterogeneity and (2) the suitability of nonterm‐limit states as good counterfactuals for term‐limit states. We compare two different identification strategies to deal with these issues: differences‐in‐differences (DID) estimation and conditioning on prior outcomes with an emphasis on synthetic case control. Using more rigorous methods of causal inference, we find little evidence that term limits affect state spending. Our analysis and results are informative for researchers seeking to assess the causal effects of state‐level institutions.