Fertility,development, and family planning, 1970–1980: An analysis of cases weighted by population

A series of related studies (Freedman and Berelson, 1976; Mauldin and Berelson, 1978; and Tsui and Bogue, 1978) have presented empirical findings based on multiple regression analysis which indicated that family planning program effort (FP), as measured by an index developed by Lapham and Mauldin (1972), was the single most important predictor of (or influence on) fertility reduction in less-developed countries (LDCs). The basic results have been confirmed repeatedly. A more extensive data set was used to extend the analysis to a comparison of results of corss-sectional models circa 1970 and 1980. The study builds upon the results of past studies yet differs from them in several ways. All the variables in the present study were measured at 2 points in time: circa 1970 and circa 1980, allowing a comparison between cross-sectional models for 1970 and 1980. Among the cases included in this multivariate analysis was China, a country usually excluded for lack of data. The analysis was extend to 85 countries. Cases were weighted by population, having the effect of increasing the impact of larger countries such as India and China on the outcome of the analysis. Total fertility rate (TFR) was used as an indicator of fertility. For 1970, family planning program effort had the strongest direct influence on fertility (a result consistent with previous studies). Life expectancy at birth was the other direct influence. The direct influence of life expectancy at birth was less than that of family planning, but the total influence was greater. After life expectancy and family planning, school enrollment and relative educational status of women had the strongest indirect and total influences. The other variables all had a positive influence on fertility. When the total variance attributable was considered, directly and indirectly to each of the independent variables, urbanization, carlorie supply, and per capita gross national product all accounted for less than 5% of the variance in fertility, all of it indirect. Life expectancy, family planning, and school enrollment each explained (directly plus indirectly) more than 10% of the variance in fertility. The pattern differed somewhat for 1980. Calorie supply, per capita gross national product, and relative educational status of women had no influence, direct or indirect on fertility. Also for 1980, life expectancy had a stronger direct influence on fertility than family planning. Overall, life expectancy at birth, family planning program effort, and total school enrollment emerged as the principal influences on fertility.     

The effects of family planning effort and development on fertility: An intervening variables framework

To pinpoint the intervening variable that transmit the impacts of development and family planning effort on fertility, a modified proximate determinants model was applied to data from 59 developing countries. The intermediate variable included level of exposure to sexual intercourse (the percentage of women 20-24 years old in a union), deliberate marital fertility control (the percentage of married women of reproductive age who were using contraception), and natural marital fertility (operationalized as average per capita calorie consumption). The regression equations indicated that both social development and family planning effort can influence fertility levels substantially through their association with higher levels of contraceptive use. Interestingly, the direct effects of family planning and social development on the crude birth rate became insignificant when the intermediate variables were included in the same equation. Path analysis revealed that social development has an indirect effect of -0.083 via its influence on marriage patterns and of -0.316 due to its effect on contraceptive usage. Family planning has a lesser indirect impact on fertility (-0.487), and -0.111 of this effect reflects program effort's dependence on the level of social development. Economic development is positively linked to fertility, and future research should assess whether this factor is partially counterbalancing the fertility-reducing impact of social development and family planning programs. Although this analysis confirms that delayed marriage and widespread adoption of contraception are key intervening variables, they cannot influence fertility in societies where there are social or cultural impediments to such changes.     

The relative importance of family planning and development for fertility reduction: Critique of research and development of theory

3 recent studies about the relative effects of family planning and development are reviewed in an effort to point out their limitations and to augment them. A tentative theoretical framework is presented from which the problem of fertility reduction may be viewed. Also presented is an analysis of the "outliers" in 1 of the 3 studies. This analysis involves consideration of macrosocial and contextual aspects of different nations as a supplement to other analyses. Mauldin and Berelson (1978) and Tsui and Bogue (1978) used indicators of social setting and family planning effort to explain declines in, respectively, crude birthrate between 1965 and 1975, and total fertility rates between 1968 and 1975. The 2 studies used nearly identical sets of explanatory variables. With both studies using the same indicators, except for "labor force," it is not surprising that the results were the same. The results were previously obtained by Freedman and Berelson (1976), who also used the Lapham Mauldin index of planning effort along with similar indicators of social setting. Freedman and Berelson found that birthrate declines could be explained better by program effort (which independently explained 17% of the variance in crude birthrate (CBR) declines) than by social setting (which independently accounted for 7% of that variance), and that the 1972 birthrate itself was similarly explained (15% of the variance attributed to program effort alone, 5% to social setting alone). Mauldin and Berelson obtained nearly identical results. In the Tsui and Bogue study, the contribution of the 1968 level of fertility was the dominant influence on the 1975 total fertility rate. The standardized regression coefficient indicated that previous fertility explained 50-60% of subsequent fertility by direct relationship, a figure comparable to the social setting family planning interaction effects (44-58%) in the 2 other studies. Much of this discussion is devoted to an analysis of the "outliers" in the exploratory data analysis done by Sykes for Mauldin and Berelson (1978). The outliers in Sykes' exploratory data analysis were divided along 2 dimensions. The first involves the relationship between predicted and actual reductions in fertility. The 2nd dimension refers to the independent variables used to predict the fertility declines. This analysis involves analysis of contextual variables and an analysis of distributional variables. It is limited by missing data, but the analysis of Freedman and Berelson (1976), Mauldin and Berelson (1978), and Tsui and Bogue (1978) is plagued by missing variables: contextual variables; distributional variables; and unique national, regional, or local circumstances. These can only be adequately revealed by case studies and may be important influences on fertility behavior. Effects of family planning and social setting may be conditioned by contextual variables (e.g., island status as in Taiwan), or unique circumstances (e.g., coercion as in India), and distribution appears to have an effect of its own.     

Fertility,development, and family planning

Earlier studies by Tsui and Bogue (1978) and Mauldin and Berelson (1978) suggested that family planning efforts account for 3-4 times the variance in fertility than is explained by indicators of socioeconomic development. This paper replicates, extends, and revises these analyses. Selection of a different set of countries for sampling was found to have little effect on the earlier results. In addition, neither factor scaling nor the addition of distributional variables had a substantial effect. However, weighting countries by population size was found to produce a decline in explained variance. It was found that although family planning has a stronger direct effect on fertility than any other variable when countries are considered, the effect of education is stronger when people are considered. When more developed countries were included in the analysis, the combination of prior fertility and mortality explained almost all the variation in current fertility. This finding suggests that fertility is more responsive to longterm, stabilized changes in mortality than to short-term changes. 4 methodological conclusions are derived from these analyses: 1) unless a sample of countries is overtly biased, the selection of a sample on the basis of available data has little impact on the results; 2) stepwise methods can be utilized to avoid the inclusion of a large number of variables in a regression equation; 3) weighting of cases has a substantial impact on results; and 4) since most variables have little direct influence on fertility change, analysis should be extended to examine indirect influences. These results suggest a policy which invests economic resources in education and mortality reduction as well as family planning efforts. Investments in primary and secondary education may reduce mortality as well as fertility.     

Fertility decline and social service access: Reconciling behavioral and medical models

In this summary of fertility literature the author attempts to differentiate between the effects of behavioral and medical models of family planning programs on the fertility rate. This is done by determining the effects of access to social welfare services by assessment of: the function of children within the family life survey conducted in the Cameroons are also used. It was found that 7 interdependent elements of social service are involved: 1) general health care; 2) social security for sick and aged; 3) employment training and opportunities for adults; 4) literacy and education; 5) communication and transportation systems; 6) housing and infrastructure; 7) child care and welfare. The presence of these elements is shown to accompany low fertility while their absence is expressed in high rates of child bearing. These elements are major variables in both the nomological and public policy senses. 2 additional components are knowledge of and favorable attitudes towards effective means of fertility control plus effective mechanical, chemical, or natural means of limiting fertility. The concept of fertility norm and its impact on the fertility rate is explained as being the result of the collective force which social affiliations exert on people to reproduce in a certain way. The "stopping rule" is that which will fulfill the fertility norm. An example of this is a culture which continues child bearing until a son has been born and then controls reproduction after this has happened. Such factors must be considered for family planning programs to succeed in these cultures. Therefore fertility levels are found to be the product of prevailing norms and technical ability to achieve these norms. Improvement in levels of access to social services can bring about the lowering of these norms.     

A multilevel analysis of fertility behavior in Korea

This analysis of the socioeconomic determinants of fertility behavior in Korea develops a model that simultaneously considers both individual and community-level differences. The model includes 3 fertility process components: onset, early fertility, and later fertility, which are defined by reference to maternal age. The analysis traced the effects of respondents' education and childhood residence through their intermediate consequences for work experience before and after marriage, husbands' education and occupation, current residence, childhood mortality, and sex composition of offspring. The data were derived from the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey. The results of this analysis indicate that socioeconomic development results in increased age at 1st birth and reduced number of children. Socioeconomic development is accompanied by desires for smaller family size, creating the conditions for fertility decline even in the absence of a national family planning program. The results for early fertility supported the hypothesis that there would be no effect of employment in the modern sector before marriage on fertility before age 30 years in traditional contexts, but a positive effect in transitional contexts. Aside from age at 1st birth, none of the micro coefficients were statistically significant in explaining the early fertility model. For later fertility, the relationships between micro and social context variables were negative, as hypothesized, but dampening effects of development due to family planning were not detected. Childhood residence played a small role in explaining fertility measures, but women's education did not work either additively or interactively.     

Inequality and fertility

This article focuses on the relationship between inequality and fertility, with empirical analysis only of direct influences. Whereas much of the literature seems to be based on 0-order correlations, the present study uses multiple regression analysis to test the strength of the evidence for a relationship between inequality and fertility when competing hypotheses are also considered. In addition, this study attempts to clarify some of the issues surrounding the measurement of inequality and to show how these may affect empirical results. It appears from the results presented here that research into the relative status of women as an influence on fertility holds considerable promise. In particular, it is interesting that a measure of the relative status of women (ratio of female school enrollment to male school enrollment) that is highly correlated with absolute educational status of people in the nation in general, and even more highly correlated with absolute educational status of women, emerges as one of 3 important predictors of fertility. The other measure of the relative educational status of women (female school enrollment ratio minus male school enrollment ratio), which has lower correlations with absolute educational status both of women and people in general, does not appear important, although it should be an equally valid indicator of women's status. It also has lower correlations with total fertility rates. 1 focus of further research should be an attempt to disentangle the effects of the relative status of women from absolute status of women and absolute status of people in the nation as a whole. Less promising is the prospect of future work on the relationship between income inequaltiy and fertility. The results are unencouraging with respect to both sampling problems and the actual magnitude of the effect of inequality on fertility. Overall, it appears that the importance of income inequality as an influence on fertility may have been overstated in the past.     

The determinants of teenage schooling in Jamaica: Rich vs. poor,females vs. males

The belief that schooling is an important way to reduce poverty and increase social mobility has lead to large government‐sponsored investment in education in developing countries. Jamaica has an impressive literacy and primary enrolment rate, yet the ability of its secondary school system to enhance social mobility and reduce inequality is limited. Regression results from a nationally representative household survey show that family background variables (parental education and income) are important determinants of secondary school enrolment, and income is the single most important determinant of enrolment in an ‘elite’ high school, with the impact being twice as large for females. Part of the income effect is shown to represent unobserved community heterogeneity. One conclusion is that the recent ‘cost‐sharing’ education policy of the Jamaican government, if applied selectively to the elite academic high schools, will fall disproportionately upon rich households.     

Cross-national models of fertility,Family planning,and development: Testing for reciprocal effects

Cross-national models of fertility, family planning, and development commonly assume that there are no reciprocal effects between fertility and other variables in the model, and when path models are used, that there are no reciprocal or nonrecursive effects among any set of variables in the model. The present study tests for nonrecursiveness using two-wave panel data, and finds that nonrecursive effects are present among variables commonly used in models of fertility, family planning, and development. In addition, the pattern of relationships found has implications for the explanation of the relationship between mortality and fertility in demographic transition theory. Scott Menard is a research associate at the Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Campus Box 442, Boulder, Colorado, 80309-0442. His publications includePerspectives on Population with Elizabeth W. Moen (Oxford University Press, 1987) as well as several previous articles in SCID on fertility, family planning, and development.     

Dynamic properties of Taiwanese fertility, 1950–1972

This extensive statistical study focuses on fertility patterns during the postwar period in Taiwan. The analytical technique is economic, with socioeconomic variables generally considered the important determinants of fertility; on the other hand, female education and labor force participation were seen to exert a strong negative effect on fertility. Taiwan has reduced birth rates nearly 50% in the period from the 1950s-1970s. In 1972, Taiwan's birth rate/woman was 3.4, a 50% reduction from 1950, generally attributed to institution of a well-conceived family planning program in 1964. It is hypothesized that the socioeconomic forces (presented in 7 comprehensive tables) which influenced negatively the rate of births, worked primarily to reduce excess rather than desired fertility. The clear connection between women's participation in the labor force and reduction in desired fertility leads to the suggestion that stronger economic incentives must be presented to women. Given the already wide availability and low cost of birth control devices, further fertility reductions caused by expanded participation in the family planning program are not likely to reduce desired family size significantly. Instead, it is argued that such reductions tend to occur slowly and to be associated with more economically meaningful roles for women. Analyzed on a cost-benefit basis, the fertility control efforts of the Taiwanese government should be directed to achieving a synchronization between the skill levels demanded by the economy and those acquired in the system of higher education. Economic incentives for fewer births would then augment, rather than offset, the presently extant negative effects of slowly changing attitudinal variables and economic development. The formulation and usefulness of statistical methods are developed extensively within this article.     

Reassessing the Effect of Economic Growth on Well-being in Less-developed Countries, 1980–2003

Development debates have been greatly influenced by the growth consensus: the conventional wisdom that economic growth should be the primary priority for less-developed countries (LDCs) because it most effectively improves the well-being of the world’s poor. We compare the impact of growth to other independent variables in an unbalanced panel analysis of up to 109 LDCs and 580 observations across six time points (1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2003). Our dependent variables include caloric consumption, infant survival probability, one-to-five year survival probability, female life expectancy, and male life expectancy. First, we find that gross domestic product (GDP) has significant positive effects on caloric consumption, female life expectancy, and male life expectancy. Second, GDP does not have robust effects on infant and one-to-five survival probabilities. Third, fertility, urbanization, and secondary school enrollment have larger effects than GDP in the majority of models. The more powerful effects of fertility, urbanization, and secondary schooling cannot simply be attributed to an indirect effect of GDP. Fourth, we find that dependency variables do not have robust significant effects. Fifth, over time, GDP has become much less effective at improving caloric consumption and infant and one-to-five survival. We infer that there are serious limitations to concentrating exclusively on economic growth to improve well-being in LDCs.     

Family Deviance,Self-control,Deviant Lifestyles,and Youth Violent Victimization: A Latent Indirect Effects Analysis

Research increasingly explores more complex relations of low self-control and context factors, such as structural constraints that limit behavioral lifestyle options, with violent victimization. The authors extend extant research by examining indirect effects of low self-control and family deviance on violent victimization via deviant lifestyles. The hypothesized full indirect effects model is tested for 233 African American and Hispanic 11th-grade students using latent variable analysis. Results offer strong support for the full indirect effects hypothesis. Results generally support the utility of an integrative framework that includes structural constraints arising from the family setting.     

Inconsistency between educational attainment and literacy: The case of Russia

From the moment when wide spread of large scale assessments in sociology and economics began, the most commonly used indicators of peoples’ qualifications are the number of years spent in education and the possession of a high school/college/university diploma. But what if these formal indicators are unreliable under certain conditions and do not reflect actual literacy and competency of people? This article, drawing on data from the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), questions accuracy of the basic educational indicators in Russia. There is a linear relationship between the possession of a formal graduation diploma and the measurement of PIAAC literacy of the able-bodied population in OECD countries, including the Eastern European ones. However, the analysis shows that in Russia there is an inconsistency between literacy and formal educational status. This fact in itself casts doubt on the effectiveness of formal education indicators in Russia. The social implications resulting from this inconsistency become apparent through an international comparison of research results. These ill effects have been documented in the areas of employment, education and social reproduction and in the social self-awareness of the Russian people.     

The Soviet ideology of industrialization : A review article

This paper studies reproductive behaviour (ideal family size, completed family size and family planning acceptance) in a rural Indian area which was rapidly industrialising. Two castes and eleven villages were sampled. It was found that family planning was quite common and that fertility differentials among couples were related to the couples’ unique socioeconomic characteristics as well as to two group level variables (caste and village). The latter result was shown to be statistically significant, for all three measures of reproductive behaviour, even after many unique socioeconomic characteristics and attitudes of each couple were accounted for statistically.     

Ideas,Economics and 'the Sociology of Supply': Explanations for Fertility Decline in Bangladesh

The persistence of high rates of fertility in Bangladesh, despite the poverty of its population, has been given alternative, and apparently competing, explanations, including the absence of effective forms of family planning, the resilience of pro-natalist values and norms and the existence of material constraints which led to the reliance on children as economic assets. The recent and dramatic declines in fertility rates, in the absence of any apparent major economic changes in the decades prior to the onset of fertility decline, appears to contradict materialist explanations for fertility behaviour and to support explanations which stressed ideas about the acceptability of birth control and the availability of the means for doing so. This article argues that such an interpretation is based on an historical analysis of events in Bangladesh. It offers an alternative explanation which stresses socio-economic change as the primary motor for change in family size preferences, but which recognises the role of modern forms of family planning in facilitating the pace of the resulting fertility decline.     

The Social Outcomes of Education and Feedbacks on Growth in Africa

Most of the effects of education included in the complete model presented here are shown to be consistent with those found in the mainstream of the research on each outcome using microeconomic data. This, however, is a first effort to estimate net education effects more comprehensively, beyond just growth and health effects on other key measures of development in Africa, and also a new view of indirect feedbacks on economic growth and of externalities. After developing the conceptual framework, the regression estimates are presented together with a discussion of the net direct and indirect effects of education on each outcome. These are shown to improve infant mortality, increase longevity, strengthen civic institutions and democratisation, increase political stability, and increase investment in physical capital, which in turn have positive delayed feedback effects on the economic growth process. The effects also lower fertility rates and population growth rates but the latter occurs only after long delays because of the short-term positive effects of education on health. There are significant net education effects reducing poverty, inequality and crime, the latter after netting out negative externalities from growth and white-collar crime. Education effects reducing poverty and substituting skills for extractive exports also contribute to environmental sustainability. Simulations solve the complete model endogenously and iteratively over time for all of the direct and indirect (largely externality) effects. They reveal that indirect feedback effects including those on non-market outcomes are larger than the direct effects. Some effects are immediate, but many of the lags are long. So policy options for a continent in crisis that consider these lags are considered.     

Financial Literacy and Retirement Planning among Government Officers in Malaysia

ABSTRACT

This study examines the level of financial literacy, financial behaviour and retirement planning behaviour and its dynamics among Malaysian government officers involving 320 employees working in the federal government administrative centre in Putrajaya and Kuala Lumpur using a questionnaire. Findings show high level of financial literacy, good financial behaviour but a mediocre in retirement planning behaviour, and only education and personal income positively influence financial literacy. Age and gender of officers do not influence financial literacy. Furthermore, financial literacy does not correlate with retirement planning and neither does it mediate the relationship between financial behaviour and retirement planning.     

Democracy, Colonization, and Human Capital in Sub-Saharan Africa

This article examines an empirical anomaly. In most developing regions, poor democratic nations enroll more primary school students than their authoritarian counterparts. Regime type, however, cannot account for the wide variance in enrollment in Africa. This study demonstrates that colonial heritage is a good predictor of primary school enrollment for low-income countries in Africa. Additional analysis shows that colonization's impact on education has not diminished since independence. Rather, the initial differences in enrollment between the former French and British colonies have grown over time. The results hold important implications for the study of political institutions and their impact on economic development. Even after they no longer exist, political institutions can have substantial lingering effects on important developmental outcomes. David S. Brown is an assistant professor of political science at Rice University. His work has appeared recently inThe American Political Science Review, Political Research Quarterly, and inComparative Political Studies. His work focuses on the political economy of development and is based on cross-regional work with specialization in Latin America. Specific areas of interest are human capital, democracy, and the international determinants of domestic politics.