Effects of Term Limits on Fiscal Performance: Evidence from Democratic Nations

Political reputation models featureforward-looking, rational voters whore-elect incumbents based on their estimateof an incumbent's ability level. Fiscalpolicy is one of the ways an incumbentestablishes a reputation and therebysignals this ability level to voters. Thereputation-building framework implies thatterm limits should affect fiscalperformance; a term-limited incumbentplaces less value on reputation-buildingthan an incumbent eligible for re-electiondoes. We examine differences in fiscalperformance in democratic countries underalternative executive term limit regimes. Our results generally agree with the priorfindings of Besley and Case (1995a) whoanalyzed gubernatorial term limits in theAmerican States. We provide new evidencethat the fiscal effects of term limitsdiffer under a two-term rule versus asingle-term rule.     

Democratic Quality in Stable Democracies

The major predecessor to Ringen’s and my own efforts to measure democratic quality in terms of the purpose of democracy is Robert Dahl’s seminal book Polyarchy (1971). Measuring the quality of democracy requires two prior judgments: (1) making sure that, in terms of institutional characteristics, a country is sufficiently democratic, and that, as a minimum, it has universal suffrage, and (2) that its democracy has been uninterrupted for a minimum number of years. To an important extent, higher democratic quality can be attributed to institutional characteristics of consensus democracy, especially proportional representation.     

Prospects for Democratic Transition in China

The core tenet of modernization theory is that as nation-states develop both economically and socially, they will inevitably transition to democracy. Yet, despite 30-years of robust economic development and growth, including increases in civil society, democracy remains elusive in China. In this article, we conduct a critical and empirical analysis to understand the challenges and possibilities of democratization in China. Should China transition to democracy, it will most likely occur through a top-down process that transforms the state and its institutions of government or through a cooperative pact by joint forces of top-down and bottom-up processes. Under either a converted or cooperative transition, the modeling in this study strongly suggests that China is likely to be successful should it undertake the process of democratization.     

Democratic Deepening in Third Wave Democracies: Experiments with Participation in Mexico City

After the initial transition to democratic rule the question of how to improve the quality of democracy has become the key challenge facing Third Wave democracies. In the debate about the promotion of more responsive government, institutional reforms to increase direct participation of citizens in policy-making have been put on the agenda. The Federal District of Mexico City constitutes a particularly intriguing case in this debate. This article explores how political participation developed in Mexico City between 1997 and 2003 and what effects this has had on democratic deepening. It develops an ideal-type conceptual framework of citizen participation that outlines the conditions under which participation contributes to democratic deepening. Overall, the case of Mexico City highlights how the promotion of participation can fail to make the aspired contribution to democratic deepening and might even have negative effects on the quality of democracy.     

Political Cycles,Fiscal Deficits,and Output Spillovers in Europe

This paper investigates whether national elections in Europegenerate political cycles in other European countries, and, ifso, whether these spillover effects are likely to surviveinside EMU. The paper first tests whether elections in Germanyaffect macroeconomic outcomes in other European countries andthen investigates the impact of elections on budget deficits.The results indicate that German politics significantlyimpacts macroeconomic variables in other European countries,and also that politics significantly affects the behaviour ofEuropean budgetary policy. The prospect of elections tends toincrease public deficits in recessions, whereas left-winggovernments tend to be more deficit-prone than right-winggovernments regardless of the state of the economy. Moreover,the existence of political cycles spillovers among Europeancountries suggest that there may be a need for electoralcoordination.     

A Decade of Deficits and Debt: Japanese Fiscal Policy and the Rise and Fall of the Fiscal Structural Reform Act of 1997

Japanese budgetary and fiscal policy have experienced dramatic changes during the last several years, marked by the rise and fall of the Fiscal Structural Reform Act of 1997. This act altered the budgetary process with the goal of reducing Japan's rapidly growing deficit and debt. Yet the onset of recession in 1998 led Japan to engage again in large-scale deficit spending to stimulate the economy, and in the process discard its budget reforms.     

Fiscal Policy,Deficits and Politics of Subnational Governments: The Case of the German Laender

The first part of the paper briefly describesinstitutional aspects of the German federal system andexamines the economic and fiscal performance of theGerman Laender since 1970. Taking into account theinstitutional settings, especially the fact that theGerman Laender cannot set tax rates individually, wedevelop a highly stylized model of subnationalgovernments that do not have access to the tax rateinstrument and thus have to use expenditures as apolicy variable. The model implies an expendituresmoothing policy of subnational governments andcomplements the famous tax smoothing model. Theempirical section examines whether governments ofvarious ideology show significant differences infiscal stabilization policy. Our results indicatethat regional differences in public debt accumulationand public expenditure policy in general is largelydetermined by interregional differences in economicperformance, whereas we do not find any significantimpact on the ideological composition of the Laendergovernments.     

The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy: An Experimental Study on the Strategic Use of Deficits

Field data on the strategic use of deficits to limit thebudgetary scope of future governments are inconclusive aboutthe effects of political polarization or a government'sre-election probability on fiscal policy. Therefore, wedesigned a controlled experiment to examine the strategic useof deficits. Using a within-subjects design, we find thatdeficits rise with a higher degree of polarization and a lowerreelection probability. However, in a between-subjects designneither polarization nor reelection probabilities have asystematic effect. We discuss the implications of ourexperimental results for empirical tests of the strategic useof deficits with field data.     

Politics and Unemployment in Industrialized Democracies

This paper provides an empirical appraisal of the influence ofpolitics on the evolution of unemployment rates in 13industrialized democracies (12 European Union countries andthe U.S.) from 1960 to 1999. We conduct new tests ofopportunistic and partisan business cycle models, using richerdata and more general specifications than previous studies. Incontrast to most previous studies, we pay particular attentionto the importance of labor market structure in conditioningthe influence of politics on unemployment. We also investigatethe relationship between political stability and economicstability. The results suggest the existence of partisan effects, withhigher unemployment rates prevailing under ``right'' partiesthan ``left'' parties. There is more support for ``rational''partisan models that embody transient partisan impacts thanfor models with permanent effects. We find evidence that unionpower is associated with higher average unemployment rates,but that centralized bargaining institutions tend to lowerunemployment rates. The evidence also suggests that morefragmented coalition governments are associated with higherunemployment rates than single party governments.     

Space Matters: Designing Better Electoral Systems for Emerging Democracies

Although the holding of founding and subsequent elections is essential for any transition from authoritarian to democratic rule, the comparative literature on electoral system design is limited on the experience of "Third Wave" democratizers. This is especially true with respect to the interactive effects between the choice of electoral system and the spatial, i.e., geographic, distribution of the vote—a critical factor that shapes electoral outcomes in all societies, but particularly in emerging democracies because many are plural and agrarian societies. Political elites in these countries have also rarely considered the impact of alternative electoral systems when selecting a system for their country. This article addresses these gaps in the literature and practice by presenting a computational model known as a spatial decision support system or SDSS that both explores these interactive effects and facilitates electoral design. The utility of the model is then demonstrated with data from Kenya and South Africa—two emerging democracies where issues posed by the spatial distribution of the vote have given rise to demands for redesigning or modifying the electoral system.     

Abortion Policy in Western Democracies: A Cross-National Analysis

This article provides a comparative analysis of abortion policies for 21 countries in Western Europe and North America. First, after briefly discussing the historical evolution of abortion attitudes and policies, a typology of current abortion laws is presented. Second, the mode of determining abortion policy is compared — judicial (Germany, Canada), legislative (Britain, France), and direct democracy (referenda in Italy, Ireland). Third, the question of abortion policy implementation is considered. In other words, does the legal status of abortion really make a difference regarding the pattern of availability and use of abortion services? Fourth, potential explanatory variables (left-wing party strength, feminism, Catholicism) regarding the content and process of abortion policies is evaluated.