城市经济增长优化的科学评价系统

尽快建设城市经济化的评价系统,对于政府宏观调控十分必要。城市经济的发展即要看增长速度,也要看增长质量。对城市经济增长质量的评价一般涉及：价格稳定度、失业率、财政平衡度、社会公平度等九个方面。本结合中国实际从上述方面对城市经济增长质量的评价问题进行了重点分析。     

Innovating Science Policy: Restructuring S&T Policy for the Twenty-first Century1

Over the next twenty years, accelerating scientific and technical developments will spawn immense changes to society that can be both crucially beneficial and tragically destructive. This trend, principally occurring outside of government control, is both helping the United States to improve defense and economic security and producing threats to national security. To deal with these increasingly technical issues, the nation's leadership needs to be armed with considerable scientific and technological acumen. Hence, the United States should explore the creation of a national security science and technology (S&T) strategy that improves: (1) scientific analysis available to decision makers; (2) understanding of the S&T needed to maintain national security; (3) coordination and collaboration among S&T providers; (4) control of dangerous technologies; (5) technology prioritization and acquisition processes; and (6) the dialog on enhancing the application of the products of private sector and foreign research for American national security purposes. Policies that address these issues will have to achieve the difficult balance between government and scientists’ influence over research and development (R&D). This article explores how to better deliver technical advice to high-level decision makers, as a means to better deal with emerging threats that are enabled by the rapid innovation and proliferation of scientific knowledge throughout the world.     

How Do We Know if it's Working?

This article introduces the first of the three cross‐cutting themes used to assess Australian integrity systems: evaluation of their consequences. It argues that an evidence‐based approach to assessing the overall impact of integrity and corruption prevention measures is possible, based on experience in Australia, drawing on measures including the evolving State of the Service surveys of the Australian Public Service Commission. However, different types of measurement serve different institutional purposes, with little current integration and no overall agreed framework for how they might be combined to help judge performance. The article identifies key issues that need to be addressed in developing such a framework.     

Mixing God's Work and the Public Business: A Framework for the Analysis of Faith‐Based Service Delivery

Over the past thirty years, there has been a dramatic transformation in the way the American political process operates. There has been a growing public perception that traditional political institutions lack the capacity to meet existing challenges. This has led many observers to call for a rethinking of how government does its work. Numerous alternatives, including the use of faith‐based organizations, have been suggested. The current popular debate on the appropriate role of faith‐based organizations in public service delivery has shed little light on a number of important issues raised by engaging such actors in governance issues. The impact of using faith‐based institutions to design and implement public policy must be considered not only in terms of traditional evaluation standards, but also regarding potential long‐term impacts on the political process itself. This article outlines a theoretical framework for the evaluation of faith‐based organizations as “alternatives” to conventional governance structures. It identifies key practical and theoretical issues raised by such substitution, in both short and long range systemic terms.     

What's the Harm? The Ethics of Intelligence Collection

Abstract

As the professional practice of intelligence collection adapts to the changing environment and new threats of the twenty-first century, many academic experts and intelligence professionals call for a coherent ethical framework that outlines exactly when, by what means and to what ends intelligence is justified. Reports of abuse at detention centres such as Guantanamo Bay and Abu Ghraib, the ever increasing use of technological surveillance, and the increased attention on the use of torture for intelligence collection purposes have all highlighted a need to make an explicit statement about what is and what is not permissible intelligence practice. In this article an ethical framework will be established which will outline under what circumstances the use of different intelligence collection activities would be permissible. This ethical framework will first underline what it is about intelligence collection that is ‘harmful’ and, therefore, should be prohibited under normal circumstances. The ethical framework then outlines a set of ‘just intelligence principles’, based on the just war tradition, which delineate when the harm caused can be justified. As a result, this article outlines a systemic ethical framework that makes it possible to understand when intelligence collection is prohibited and when it is permissible.     

Waiting for privatization in developing countries: Towards the integration of economic and non-economic explanations

The intention of this paper is to examine the political and administrative limits on the effective implementation of privatization in developing countries and so to present a challenge to the view that slow progress is primarily attributable to economic constraints. After examining these economic aspects, the paper provides an explanatory framework which incorporates those political and administrative processes central to an understanding of what happens to state economic policies in practice. The significance of these processes is demonstrated by drawing on research material from India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Sri Lanka. The conclusion drawn is that responses to pressures for economic reform will be determined, not so much by economic criteria as by the political and bureaucratic resources available to decision makers. Since policy processes in developing countries show considerable variety it is likely that there will be substantial variations in the practical achievement of privatization objectives.     

Apples and horned toads: On the framework-determined nature of the energy debate

A common view of the energy problem holds that what is at stake in most energy policy debates are questions of fact that are in principle susceptible to resolution by objective, scientific research. It is argued in this paper that this view is misguided, and that underlying many of the factual issues apparently in dispute are differences at the framework level, that is differences in basic presuppositions and the patterns of thinking employed.By means of an examination of the debate over soft and hard energy paths, it will be argued that framework differences are fundamental to that debate and that such differences are not susceptible to factual resolution. As a result, the debate has taken on the character of a ritualized performance, as each side strives to convince, not their opponents, but policymakers of the rightness of their opinion. Some of the implications of these findings for energy policymaking are explored.     

基于空间治理视角的城市贫困研究综述

相较于农村贫困,城市贫困是一种在空间上集聚的相对贫困,明晰它的空间特征、演变规律及影响因素等对于城市贫困的精准治理有着重要作用。为此,应用Citespace科学文献可视化工具,对Web ofScience数据库中1052篇城市贫困主题的英文文献(1995—2019年)和中国知网(CNKI)数据库中2912篇相关中文文献(1981—2019年)进行分析,可从空间视角总结国内外城市贫困的研究现状及研究热点。结果表明:研究趋势上,国外对于城市贫困研究的关注度总体呈现上升趋势,而国内城市贫困的研究起步较晚、增长幅度较大,但在关注度上出现倒U型结构;概念上,从空间视角定义城市贫困多是认为居住区内的人们遭受了不同类型的“剥夺”;研究内容上,城市贫困空间的测量与识别、时空动态变化、影响因素分析及大数据的应用等是国内外城市贫困的研究热点;贫困空间的演变及成因上,受居住、种族和阶级隔离等多种经济文化因素的综合影响,国外的城市贫困呈现由内及外的郊区化现象,而国内城市贫困空间演化较为复杂多变。     

An Integrative Approach to the Politics of Central Bank Independence: Lessons from Britain,Germany and Italy

This article proposes a three-tier framework for analysing the politics of central bank independence. International factors explain the general trend towards central bank independence. However, they are framed differently by various national systems. At the national level, for heuristic purposes, the analysis can be structured by focusing on ‘suppliers’ and ‘demanders’ of central bank independence. The former are the political authorities, whereas the latter are socioeconomic forces and interest groups, with the central bank positioned in-between. At the micro-institutional level, central banks can be influential economic and political actors situated at the interface between levels of governance. The added value of this integrated framework is appraised using one case study, the Bank of Italy's path to independence, which is compared with the experience of the Bank of England and the Bundesbank. In contrast to many works on central bank independence, the methodology adopted here is qualitative, rather than quantitative, and is grounded in empirical research.     

IDENTIFYING MECHANISMS BEHIND POLICY INTERVENTIONS VIA CAUSAL MEDIATION ANALYSIS

Causal analysis in program evaluation has primarily focused on the question about whether or not a program, or package of policies, has an impact on the targeted outcome of interest. However, it is often of scientific and practical importance to also explain why such impacts occur. In this paper, we introduce causal mediation analysis, a statistical framework for analyzing causal mechanisms that has become increasingly popular in social and medical sciences in recent years. The framework enables us to show exactly what assumptions are sufficient for identifying causal mediation effects for the mechanisms of interest, derive a general algorithm for estimating such mechanism‐specific effects, and formulate a sensitivity analysis for the violation of those identification assumptions. We also discuss an extension of the framework to analyze causal mechanisms in the presence of treatment noncompliance, a common problem in randomized evaluation studies. The methods are illustrated via applications to two intervention studies on pre‐school classes and job‐training workshops.     

Corruption in a Model of Growth: Political Reputation,Competition and Shocks

The article tries to incorporate ``political corruption'' (toplevel corruption) into economic growth analysis. We propose amicroeconomic framework. An agent of the public sector, who wantsto optimize his cash flow resulting from budget misappropriations,will be highly sensitive to the instability related to his office.The natural equilibrium for the politician will be to fall into a`high political instability – low growth' trap, in whichcorruption appears endemic. However, the control of corruption bysociety will be possible. We consider a model in which alternativepoliticians compete with the incumbent politician but benefit from a common political reputation. It is shown that this situation leads to ``dynamic collective reputation'', which should restrain misappropriationpractices. This theoretical framework will be useful in defining a``sustainable'' degree of political competition and inunderstanding the asymmetric effects of extrinsic shocks on thegrowth process.     

司法裁判事实认定中的非理性因素

在司法裁判事实认定中,裁判者基于自身所具有的自然属性和社会属性,会不可避免地掺入一些个人的非理性因素,如潜意识、思维定势、个人情感、个性气质和欲望需求等.裁判者非理性因素在事实认定中犹如一把“双刃剑”,既能发挥支配和促进、诱导和激励、选择和评价、调节和控制等积极作用,也存在片面性、或然性和盲目性等消极影响,因此,有必要通过完善裁判者教育培训制度,建立司法判决理由公开制度和落实合议制、陪审制和回避制等措施来进行有效导控.     

Policy research in sub-Saharan Africa: An exploration

This article argues that a major problem with contemporary policy analysis is that it has difficulty coming to terms with complex economic change. This in turn is probably influenced by a view of socioeconomic systems that still harks back to the classical mechanics of the nineteenth century and a relatively stable world in which social action could reasonably be informed by disinterested scientific research of a traditional kind. By means of a review of some recent policy analysis literature and by focusing on issues relating to development issues in contemporary Africa, the article maintains that a more realistic approach would recognize the evolutionary nature of modern socioeconomic systems and base policy interventions accordingly. In particular, there is a need to see ‘policy’ as a process of complex change requiring innovative institutional contexts and novel managerial capabilities.     

Mitigation Targets,Burden Sharing and the Role of Economic Modeling in Climate Policy

Within Australian climate policy, the dominant framework for determining national emission reduction targets has been ‘burden sharing’. The prevailing view, both within and outside government, has been that there should be a rough equivalence in the costs that countries bear in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, at least where countries share similar wealth and capacity traits. This article looks at the practical problems with this approach that stem from its reliance on economic modeling. It is contended that any principled approach to target setting should strive for objectivity but that burden sharing based on projected welfare losses cannot provide this. To illustrate the fallibility of the economic projections that are done for these purposes, the article reviews how one of the greenhouse reporting sectors, known as land use, land‐use change and forestry, has been dealt with in the modelling exercises that have been done in Australia for climate policy purposes.     

The Shah and the Bomb

There are several reasons to fear that Iran will produce nuclear weapons. The country is making an enormous investment in nuclear reactors. The Shah gave a press interview in 1974 hinting at a weapons program. The Indian detonation of a peaceful nuclear device puts pressure on a near-neighbor like Iran.Yet there are also reasons to hope that this move will not be made. The Iranian investment in nuclear industry may not be premature in terms of peaceful economic purposes, and may thus not prove any military intent. A great deal of time will pass in any event before a real weapons potential is reached.A mixed forecast is thus in order, neither optimistic nor pessimistic. The Shah may well feel that Iran is better off keeping the entire Middle East free of nuclear weapons, as through its proposed Nuclear-Free Zone. Yet the policy process in Iran may make it difficult to get enough push behind this proposal.     

POLITICAL PROBLEMS OF ADMINISTRATIVE RESPONSIBILITY AND REFORM

This paper focusses on two issues: the problem of reforming administration so that the bureaucracy in its political decision-making is more firmly responsible to the elected representatives of the people and more responsive to community needs and values, and the interlocking problem of the politics of the reform process itself. Where a government announces its intention to undertake a reform program, its purposes are usually explained in terms of the need for greater efficiency. The process of reform, apart from the stress on efficiency, is usually described in value-neutral terms. The program or the enquiry, it is claimed, will result in the job being done better or more quickly or more cheaply. However, if one looks more closely at the reasons for the establishment of such programs and enquiries, it is clear that underlying the urge to change the administration, there is a dissatisfaction not so much with the way in which decisions are carried out, as with the decisions themselves. The "hidden agenda" of most reforms is to ensure that different decisions are taken and different outcomes in the community result.     

Path Dependence and Paradigm Shift: How Cetacean Scientists Learned to Develop Management Procedures that Survived the Controversial Whaling Regime

The transformation of the International Whaling Commission (IWC) into a preservationist regime met with extremely fierce opposition from the prowhaling countries and created an unprecedented and famous polarization of the IWC parties into pro and antiwhaling camps, which can be observed even today. In such a bipolar and harsh process, it would be typically argued that scientific advice would be powerless because it would become subject to heightened scrutiny from both camps resulting in endless technical debate. Our case shows that, on the contrary, the advisory scientists learned to successfully develop a scientific management procedure that was accepted by both the pro and antiwhaling camps. The objective of this paper is to explain this process and examine to what extent collective learning in the assessment process affected the political effectiveness of the management procedure and, more broadly thereby, to contribute to the groundwork of analyzing how the scientists participating in the scientific assessments collectively learn. With a view to cross‐fertilization between institutionalism and science and technology study (STS) approaches, we develop an analytical framework and apply it to the international whaling regime to examine the usefulness of it and provide some general lessons to be learned for making learning assessments more effective. The framework was capable of showing that path dependency and paradigm shift were among the key factors of the scientific assessment's increased effectiveness. Overall, the cross‐fertilization between institutionalism and STS appears to be a fruitful way forward for the next generation of scientific assessment studies.     

Evaluating the Evaluation Strategy as an Instrument for Budgetary Control

This article reports recent research undertaken on the contribution of program evaluation to that part of the budget process for which the Australian public service has carriage. It examines the degree of success which the Labor government's evaluation strategy attained in serving budget agency information purposes. The research is not conclusive, only indicative. Based on two sets of evidence — interviews with officers in the Department of Finance¹ and an analysis of survey results on the use of evaluation in the budget — it contends the evaluation strategy has had only a marginal impact on central budgetary processes. By documenting changes in the approaches of budget officials the article reports the impact of program evaluation on the core function of Finance — the provision of policy advice relating to the expenditure priorities of government.     

To Build A “Harmonious World”: China’s Soft Power Wielding in the Global South

This study attempts to answer a new but important question in China’s foreign policy— how Beijing has wielded its soft power to construct its ideal of international order in the age of China’s rise. Before empirical analyses, this study tries to set up a conceptual framework on the relations between the idea of “harmonious world” and China’s soft power wielding in its rising process. Within this framework, this study examines a rising China’s foreign policies towards three targeted regions in the global south—Africa, East Asia, and Latin America. On the one hand, due to Beijing’s carefully-designed and soft power-based foreign policies, the global south has become an increasingly harmonious environment for Beijing to cultivate a favorable national image, exert its political influence on regional affairs, benefit its own domestic economic developments, etc. On the other hand, some problems such as the so-called “China’s New Colonialism” and the increased vigilance from the other powers have already began to challenge Beijing’s harmony in those regions. Sheng Ding is assistant professor of political science at Bloomsburg University. He received both his masters and doctoral degrees from Rutgers. His research interests include soft power in international relations; transnational identity in globalization; information technology and world politics; politics in Pacific Asia; Chinese politics and foreign policy; U.S.-China relations, etc. His research articles have been published by Pacific Affairs, Nationalism and Ethnic Politics and East Asia: An International Quarterly. The author would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their useful comments on the draft of the paper.     

Capitalism,nature, socialism a theoretical introduction∗

This article expounds the traditional Marxist theory of the contradiction between forces and relations of production, over‐production of capital and economic crisis, and the process of crisis‐induced restructuring of productive forces and production relations into more transparently social, hence potentially socialist, forms. This exposition provides a point of departure for an “ecological Marxist”; theory of the contradiction between capitalist production relations and forces and the conditions of production, under‐production of capital and economic crisis, and the process of crisis‐induced restructuring of production conditions and the social relations thereof also into more transparently social, hence potentially socialist, forms. In short, there may be not one but two paths to socialism in late capitalist society.

While the two processes of capital over‐production and underproduction are by no means mutually exclusive, they may offset or compensate for one another in ways which create the appearance of relatively stable processes of capitalist development. Study of the combination of the two processes in the contemporary world may throw light on the decline of traditional labor and socialist movements and the rise of “new social movements”; as agencies of social transformation. In similar ways that traditional Marxism illuminates the practises of traditional labor movements, it may be that “ecological Marxism”; throws light on the practices of new social movements. Although ecology and nature; the politics of the body, feminism, and the family; and urban movements and related topics are usually discussed in post‐Marxist terms, the rhetoric deployed in this article is self‐consciously Marxist and designed to appeal to Marxist theorists and fellow travelers whose work remains within a “scientific”; discourse hence those who are least likely to be convinced by post‐Marxist discussions of the problem of capital's use and abuse of nature (including human nature) in the modern world. However, the emphasis in this article on a political economic “scientific”; discourse is tactical, not strategic. In reality, more or less autonomous social relationships, often non‐capitalist or anti‐capitalist, constitute “civil society,”; which needs to be addressed on its own practical and theoretical terms. In other words, social and collective action is not meant to be construed merely as derivative of systemic forces, as the last section of the article hopefully will make clear.