What price access to the open seas? The geopolitics of oil and gas transmission from the Trans-Caspian republics

In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union was the world's largest hydrocarbon producer. The landmass over which these resources are distributed is vast and the reserves mostly landlocked. To convey these hydrocarbons to refineries and to market, the Soviets constructed the largest integrated pipeline networks in the world. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, new competing national interests have produced tensions over these energy resources and transmission corridors, with economically detrimental and often irrational consequences. In Central Asia, the post-Soviet Republics of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan produce significant amounts of hydrocarbons and export their oil and gas to or through Russian Federation territory. Russian government policy aims to continue exercising political control over these resources and to maximize Moscow's share of profits from their export. This paper examines oil and gas transmission issues in Central Asia, against a backdrop of emerging new relationships between the Russian Federation and the three post-Soviet republics, the resurgent strategic competition between Russia and the United States, China's developing power base in the region and Iran's potentially key geographic position for channelling Caspian energy supplies towards the Persian Gulf.     

UZBEKISTAN AND THE UNITED STATES: INTERESTS AND AVENUES FOR COOPERATION

Uzbekistan has recently initiated a series of reforms in the wake of (former) President Islam Karimov's death in 2016. To what extent and why does Tashkent seek to liberalize? Concurrently, the United States - which curtailed ties with the Uzbekistani government in the aftermath of the 2005 Andijan massacre - has expressed renewed interest. What do Washington and Tashkent seek to gain by improving relations? This article posits that while the United States aspires to bolster regional support for the War in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan is mainly interested in consolidating a new regime and balancing against nearby Great Powers. As such, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's reformist drive should not be construed as a categorical embrace of good governance but a means to reestablish Uzbekistan's geopolitical footing after more than a decade of isolation. Based upon this assessment, both sides can work to foster avenues for cooperation, while the United States encourages Uzbekistan to liberalize at its own pace.     

The Foreign Policies of Post-Soviet Landlocked States

The landlocked location of several post-Soviet states has significantly constrained their foreign policy options, helping shape their foreign policy orientations. This article asks how lack of sea access has influenced foreign policy patterns of these states. Three case studies, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, are detailed. Based on field research, including interviews with policy makers, the case studies are used to look at maneuverability in foreign policy as well as how geographic proximity to the sea seems to be an important dividing line, distinguishing the foreign policy orientations of the new states, especially in terms of integration and cooperation with Europe and the United States, and relationships with Russia.     

形成中的中亚地区格局:尚存的单极残余、不稳定多极和其他选择

作者认为中亚地区格局不能使用"大博弈"的模式予以解读,复合的权力结构模式可能更具有解释力.具有传统影响力的俄罗斯、崛起的中国、强大的美国以及区内大国哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦等一起构建了中亚地区复杂的地缘政治网络.中亚国家从国际政治行为客体到日益具备行为主体特征的身份转变,是形成这种地区格局的重要原因.就中国而言,以一种合作性的多边主义为原则,推动各方以中亚地区的和平、稳定、可持续发展为共同目标实行开放型的合作,营造和谐的中亚地区,是一个较好的战略选择.     

Ahmad Amin and nationalism

With the breakup of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War, three republics in the South Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) achieved independence for the second time during the twentieth century. Their first experience was contentious and short-lived, had little or no support from the Western powers and was brought to end by the newly formed Soviet Union with the tacit approval of Turkey. While Georgian, Armenian and Azerbaijani national aspirations were quashed in the early post-First World War era, Zionism was given encouragement with the establishment of the Palestine Mandate. When Israel was established it was given immediate recognition by the Soviet Union, but most Jews from Georgia and Azerbaijan – Armenia's population was very small in comparison – only made their way to Israel during the last years of the Cold War. On the other hand, following the Second World War, some members of the Armenian Diaspora, including those in the Arab world, immigrated to the Soviet Union. While Soviet-Israeli relations had been strained since the Six-Day War, the end of the Cold War not only brought better ties between Russia and Israel, but it allowed Israel to establish relations with the other successor states of the former Soviet Union. Many of those countries sought ties with Israel (and the other Western states) to insure their continued independence from Russia, while, at the same time, Arab-Israeli relations improved and Turkey and Israel drew closer together. Iran was regarded with suspicion by Azerbaijan and along with Georgia, which wanted to enhance its ties with the West, drew closer to Turkey. Both countries have benefited from the transport of oil. Jews from Georgia and Azerbaijan have kept close connections with their former countries, where anti-Semitism was never the problem it was in Russia. Armenia has remained the closest to Russia with its conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh and its distrust of Georgia. However, Armenians experienced genocide at the hands of the Ottomans and have sought support from Israel over that issue.     

The cultural baggage of Khorezmian identity: traditional forms of singing and dancing in Khorezm and in Tashkent

After Uzbekistan gained its independence from Soviet rule, important political and economic changes took place. The mobility of the population has since then increased drastically and created new spaces for the negotiation of social identities as well as new strategies for identity politics among the culturally and regionally diverse population of Uzbekistan. This article aims to contribute to the discussions on social identity and its ‘contents’ in the light of migration processes. The main argument centres on the importance of what Barth called the ‘cultural stuff’ of social identities when maintaining boundaries during identification processes. The analysis focuses specifically on certain singing and dancing practices of Khorezmians. It shows how these practices survive, but are also transformed in the context of Tashkent, the capital city of Uzbekistan, where people from different regions reside together and are engaged in performing and presenting their own group identity in reference to ‘others’.     

Turkey's approach towards Israel in the 1950s: not merely following US policy

Within the context of Turkey's relationship with Israel, the 1950s are remembered largely as the decade when bilateral relations developed dramatically reflecting the US orientation of Adnan Menderes's foreign policy. On closer observation, however, one cannot fail to notice that there was more ebb than flow in Turkey's policy towards Israel which already assumed the double-faced profile (cold or reproachful in public/positive behind closed doors), which is usually associated with the next two decades. Drawing on substantial research in official US and British archives, this article explores the multiple considerations which informed the approach of the Menderes government towards Tel-Aviv. Crucially, it places the Turks’ approach within their broader Middle Eastern policy with the aim of showing that it was shaped not only by their relationship with their powerful ally, the United States, but also by the need to look after relations with neighbourly Arab regimes.     

Comparison of Élite Groups in Tatarstan,Sakha, Magadan,and Orenburg

A distinguished Russian professor of sociology examines political, economic, and intellectual élites in two oblasts and two republics of the Russian Federation. Findings are based on documentary research as well as 260 interviews: 160 formal and 100 informal. The author examines the structure of élites, their orientations and characteristics, coalitions and cooperation among them, the construction of regional identities, and the prospects for élite transformation. The article compares and contrasts republics and oblasts and considers how élites in each type of region affect prospects for political change.     

哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦独立以来的转型战略:悖论和前景

自苏联解体以后,中亚地区成了国际社会瞩目的焦点.作为曾经的苏联国家的一部分,目前该地区充满矛盾.地区内的两个大国--哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦选择了不同的发展战略,导致了有趣而充满分歧的结果.取得独立后,哈萨克斯坦选择开放它的经济,而乌兹别克斯坦政府则专注于政治稳定和完全协调发展的经济.1990年代早期,乌兹别克斯坦的策略看上去更合理且更少痛苦,而哈萨克斯坦在那时遭受了严重的经济衰退.然而,到了世纪之交,哈萨克斯坦的经济表现远远超过了它的邻国.本文的目的是分析和比较哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦独立早期所选择的两种不同的转型战略,以及评价未来几年里这两种战略的前景和它们所隐含的意义.     

Keeping face in the public sphere: recognition,discretion and Uzbekistan's relations with the United States and Germany, 1991–2006

The manner in which President Karimov's roles were recognized in the global arena affected how Uzbekistan's international relations developed – a perspective that highlights both the form and the content of bilateral relationships. While mutual interests are crucial to beginning a relationship, it is also important to understand how those relations were recognized in public and dealt with in private. If partners managed to recognize Karimov's agenda publicly, or at least act with discretion, this tended to create an atmosphere favouring cooperation. As such, recognition and discretion reveal much about Karimov's concerns with international equality and self-reliance, pointing to the reasons why Uzbekistan's relations fluctuated more with some actors than others. The United States and Germany are ideal examples of that ambivalent situation: Washington often cooperated with Uzbekistan on security matters, but then saw its military personnel excluded from Qarshi-Qanabad after the 2005 Andijan crisis; whereas Berlin witnessed little change in its relationship with Uzbekistan and continued to lease a base in Termez after 2005. This difference in outcomes can be explained in part by a dynamic of recognition and discretion.     

VIETNAM-US PARTNERSHIP: PILLARS AND PROSPECTS

This essay analyses the foundations and future of the Vietnam-US partnership. It shows that Vietnam and the United States have sought to broaden and deepen the bilateral relations in three main areas: (i) trade and investment relations, (ii) political and security relations, and (iii) people-to-people cooperation. These areas continue to be the pillars for Vietnam and the United States to build up their ties. Given China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and the United States rebalance to the Asia-Pacific, Vietnam and the United States will become closer and will work together to add strategic values to their partnership.     

An American view: U.S. Relations with the PRC and Taiwan

Since Tiananmen in June of 1989 when U.S.-Chinese relations hit rock-bottom, the United States and China have gradually expanded and improved their relationship on the basis of reality, not wishful thinking and hype. At the same time, U.S. and Taiwan relations have substantially improved while China and Taiwan themselves have created a new atmosphere of economic cooperation. The new U.S.-China relationship based on human rights, nonproliferation, and trade reciprocity could bring greater stability but the United States must be on top of the emerging regional economic powerhouse of Taiwan-South China-Hong Kong and not be distracted by peripheral issues such as conditional MFN.     

The 1967 Arab–Israeli war: Soviet policy by other means?

This paper considers two aspects of historiography about the 1967 Arab–Israeli war – American and Soviet foreign policy in the region – to better appreciate the Soviet role in the outbreak of hostilities, as well as how the war concretized the USA–Israel ‘special relationship’ and weakened American–Arab relations. Relying especially on research from the Lyndon Johnson Presidential Library and Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS), this paper argues that Soviet officials had little interest in pursuing measures to prevent war during the prewar crisis because the situation promised to undermine American interests in the region.     

Changing roles: China and the United States in East Asian security

Since the end of the cold war, many changes have been occurring in the East Asian strategic landscape. As the two most significant elements of the East Asian security equation, China and the United States share a special obligation to secure the present and future stability in the West Pacific. Both countries have to adjust their respective roles in response to the changing strategic environment: while China should take a more cooperative stance on regional security issues, the United States should be more sensitive and accommodative to regional demands. There exist several scenarios for the future of Sino-American relations, but it is desirable and possible for Beijing and Washington to form a constructive partnership with security cooperation as one underpinning pillar.     

The Abraham Accords and Religious Tolerance: Three Tales of Faith-Based Foreign-Policy Agenda Setting

How do religious tolerance and religious freedom affect foreign policy? How are they institutionalized across the signatories of the Abraham Accords? This article examines foreign policy agenda setting of religious tolerance in the United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates. In the first section, the article analyzes discursive representations of the common roots of the three monotheistic religions and identifies recurrent tropes that highlight idealistic undertones in the Abraham Accords Declaration. In the following section, it critically examines the nexus between domestic and international politics and assesses the compatibility between social and public policy and foreign-policy agenda setting centered on interfaith diplomacy and dialogue. While this article acknowledges Donald Trump's and previous US presidents’ contributions to the advancement of international religious freedom, it argues that Trump's conflicting standards and selective approaches to foreign policy and human rights preceding the agreement have failed to promote constructive relations for furthering faith-based diplomacy. This article suggests that while the United States and the UAE laid the groundwork for promoting religious freedom and tolerance leading up to the Abraham Accords, projecting a coherent foreign-policy narrative across these contexts is hampered by institutional, legal, and political considerations.     

History writing as agitation and propaganda: the Kazakh history book of 1943

The reconstruction of the Soviet recent past is a controversial issue in the post-Soviet republics. In Kazakhstan, the reconstruction of the past has gradually rehabilitated leading Kazakh communists, such as Zhumabai Shaiakhmetov. One of the main rationales of this rehabilitation is his support for Kazakh historical writing, which resulted in a textbook published in 1943. This work has been seen as an endeavor by ‘patriotic’ Kazakh officials and historians to defend Kazakh national heritage against the ‘Soviet colonial empire’. By presenting a broader view of the war period in Kazakhstan from the archives, this article argues that this history textbook was in fact merely an agitation-propaganda product of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan. Shaiakhmetov and others had mostly secured their career by remaining loyal to the Soviet system during the collectivization, the Great Famine and the Great Terror. Therefore, their encouragement of the publication of a national history in 1943 for propaganda purposes does not qualify them as suitable predecessors of the current generation of Kazakh rulers.     

The Baha’i minority in the State of Israel, 1948–1957

This article examines the virtually unexplored topic of the Baha'i religious minority in Israel's early statehood period based mainly on primary source documentation. It will be argued that while the number of Persian Baha'is in Israel after 1948 was minuscule — even smaller than the similarly minuscule Circassian and Armenian populations — the non-Arab and non-Muslim identity of the Baha'is, the lack of any historical antagonism between the Baha'is and the Jews, a shared history of marginalization in the modern Middle East, the Baha'is' principled commitment to non-violence as a basic tenet of their religious faith, their complete neutrality leading up to and including the 1948 War, (and their support for Jewish statehood after it), their lack of proselytizing in the state of Israel, and the fact that nearly all of their high-ranking administrators in post-independence Israel hailed from the United States — whose support Israel sought — led the state to cultivate this minority to a degree few other minorities experienced in post 1948 Israel.

A study of the flight and return of most (excommunicated) Baha'i adherents during and after the 1948 War, respectively, will form part of a separate, forthcoming article.     

Chile's (Inter)National Identities: Framing the Relations with Bolivia and Peru

National identities play a significant role in Latin American international relations. They affect the ways in which policy‐makers view themselves and others, as well as influencing the ways in which their policies are ‘received’ abroad. In this way, identities create opportunities and constraints for foreign policy‐making, framing the relations between Latin American countries. The author argues that, since 1990, three main patterns of Chilean identity recently affected the country's relations with its northern neighbours Bolivia and Peru: a ‘neoliberal identity’, a ‘legalistic identity’ and a ‘progressive identity’. These three patterns of identity have created opportunities for cooperation as well as causes for conflict.     

“A disagreement between allies”: The United Kingdom,the United States,and the Soviet-Japanese territorial dispute, 1945–1956

Russian-Japanese relations are frozen in time by their territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands. In untangling the dispute, scholars have studied the history of Russo-Japanese relations, the USSR’s annexation of the islands in 1945, and the role of the United States as the USSR’s erstwhile wartime ally and Japan’s postwar partner. The United Kingdom, a key player in 1945, has been neglected in these studies. This article analyzes the evolution of the British position on the Soviet-Japanese territorial dispute from 1945 to the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1956. The article reveals the marked divergence in this position from that of the United States, proceeding from a disagreement over the interpretation of the 1945 Yalta Agreement. In addition, the article highlights the manipulation of the territorial dispute by the United States to further its own political and security objectives and the British reaction to these maneuvers. Her recent publications includeBack in the USSR: Russia’s Intervention in the Internal Affairs of the Former Soviet Republics and the Implications for United States Policy Toward Russia (with Pamela Jewett) (John F. Kennedy School of Government, 1994).     

The five shades of grey: party systems and authoritarian institutions in post-Soviet Central Asian states

ABSTRACT

This article overviews and seeks to explain the processes of party system formation in the post-Soviet Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) by focusing on a crucial party-system property, fragmentation. The analysis reveals that to a much greater extent than in democracies, where party systems are largely shaped by societal factors, the level of party system fragmentation in autocracies is determined by the scope of presidential powers, as entrenched in the formal institutional order and reflected in the national constitution. The level of authoritarianism is largely inconsequential for party system fragmentation, while the role of electoral rules is secondary. Institutionally weak and institutionally strong autocratic presidents have a preference for fragmented party systems, while presidents with an intermediate range of powers seek and obtain low levels of party system fragmentation.