Climate variability and its impacts on agriculture production and future prediction using autoregressive integrated moving average method (ARIMA)

This study assesses the impacts of climate variation on land productivity for major Indian food and non‐food grain crops. We collected data for 50 years from (1967–2016) with 15 crops across India. To estimate the variation of agriculture production for each crop by different variables, for instance, rainfall and temperature estimation and future prediction for 20 years, that is, until 2036. Our results specify that land productivity drops with a rise in annual mean temperature in most of the crops. The adverse impact of climate variation on agricultural production recommends food security risk to minor and marginal agricultural families, badly affected by climatic variations. Results show that a rise in temperature would reduce agricultural productivity and assessed sensitivity of Indian agriculture to climate change. We did forecasting using the autoregressive integrated moving average model for 20 years. It shows that as temperature and rainfall upturns in the future, production of some crops, such as gram, sesamum (til), jowar, groundnut, sugarcane, and bajra, will also increase. Some crops are climate sensitive, such as arhar, wheat, rice, cotton, and tea. As temperature increases, the production of these crops slightly increase or decrease.     

Comparative Climate Change Policy and Federalism: An Overview

This commentary provides an overview of the four papers in this issue of Review of Policy Research on the politics of climate change. The papers all address in one way or another aspects of how federal‐type systems are dealing with the collective action and multilevel governance issues of climate change policy. The comparative study of federal systems provides insight into how domestic authority is so often overlapping and divided when dealing with greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Federal arrangements offer a rich array of norms, institutions, and practices for tackling these problems. Federal systems grapple continuously with the kinds of issues that are the most intractable in the climate change case, such as overcoming interregional differences of interests and values. A common federal feature is competition among subnational governments and between them and national or federated governments over climate change policy, which has been especially significant in the United States and in Canada in the relative absence of national action––although soberingly, the whole is as yet nowhere near as great as the sum of the parts. More significant, but rarer is the achievement of tighter coordination in federal systems achieved through intergovernmental co‐decision, as seen in the European Community and Australia. This has been accomplished in large part due to a consensus among all intergovernmental parties on the nature of the problem and congruence with the existing international regime, characteristics missing in the North American context.     

A review of literature on climate change and its impacts on agriculture productivity

This paper provides a comprehensive review of various reports, articles documents and papers literature related to the assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity, and will focus on how climate change and affects agriculture productivity. Agricultural practice is affected by climate changes because of its direct dependence on climatic changes. There are two methods of relationships between agriculture and climate change and has huge significance especially for developing and underdeveloped or low‐income countries, who are largely dependent on agriculture for subsistence and their lack of infrastructure for adaptation as compared with developed countries. Geographically high‐latitude areas with already existence of low temperature, by virtue of increasing temperature due to climate changes, could allow for the longer growing season. Agricultural fields are affected by the emission of GHG such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane. Gasses have an effect on climate through the discharge of greenhouse gasses. Emissions mostly come from the tillage practices, fossil fuels, fertilized agricultural soils, and farm animal's manure in a huge amount and affected the agriculture sector. On the contrary, agriculture could be a solution for climate change by reducing emission and implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions widely. It will happen with the assistance of best management practices such as agroforestry practice, organic farming, rainwater harvesting, irrigation planning, and manure management.     

Assessing Climate Change: International Co-operation and Predictions of Environmental Change

Past scientific assessments of global climate change impacts have tended to give us information on global impacts. But scientists have been refining their predictions down to regional, national and local levels. Improved understanding of climate change impacts, and particularly more specific information on which countries are most vulnerable, will affect international co-operation. Presumably, countries that are most vulnerable to climate change will be more likely to join international efforts to address climate change. At least that is what one could logically hypothesise. Questions addressed include: Does 'vulnerability' to climate change matter for international co-operation? What might be the political impact of improved understanding of the effects of climate change on international environmental co-operation?     

Intergenerational Justice and Climate Change

Global climate change has important implications for the way in which benefits and burdens will be distributed amongst present and future generations. As a result it raises important questions of intergenerational justice. It is shown that there is at least one serious problem for those who wish to approach these questions by utilizing familiar principles of justice. This is that such theories often pre-suppose harm-based accounts of injustice which are incompatible with the fact that the very social policies which climatologists and scientists claim will reduce the risks of climate change will also predictably, if indirectly, determine which individuals will live in the future. One proposed solution to this problem is outlined grounded in terms of the notion of collective interests.     

An Examination of Local Climate Change Policies in the Great Plains

As the United States struggles with national solutions to address climate change, state and local governments have become leaders in both mitigation and adaptation policy. Although a significant and growing body of research targets these policies, most studies have assumed common factors motivating both adaptation and mitigation policy adoption. There remains a need for more research on cities of all sizes, their adoption of specific local policies, the factors motivating those choices, and whether the influences for mitigation differ from those that motivate adaptation. The paper uses data from a new survey of over 200 local governments in eleven states of the Great Plains region, including measures distinguishing between mitigation and adaptation policies. These data are employed to test the relative influence of factors from three areas: the policy environment, the attitudes of governmental actors, and community atmosphere, in explaining observed variation in the adoption of climate change policies.     

Climate Change Policy Implementation: A Cross-Sectional Analysis

Why would countries invest resources to protect the global atmosphere, a global common‐pool resource? After all, this is an open‐access resource with no restrictions on appropriating its benefits. Furthermore, why would they do so under the aegis of a weak global regime (the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC) that has virtually no provisions for sanctioning noncompliance and when the largest contributor to the problem is not participating in the regime? This article examines why a number of countries have implemented the UNFCCC. I hypothesize that countries implement UNFCCC because they corner domestic environmental benefits, namely reduction in local pollution. In my empirical analysis of 127 countries, employing an ordinal logistic regression model, I find that local air pollution is associated with higher levels of implementation of the UNFCCC. Thus, I conclude that the incentives to implement a relatively weak global regime can be found in the domestic political economy.     

Governing Climate Change in China and Brazil: Mitigation Strategies

This article analyzes governmental responses for the climate change challenge in China and Brazil. Both countries have a central role in the climate change debate since they are major greenhouse gases emitters, thus contributing to the aggravation of the problem, each with differentiated participation. At the same time, policy measures aimed at climate issues in these countries may lead to the reconfiguration of international negotiations on the topic. The methodological aspects include three main points of analysis: the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions in both countries; political and institutional structures mobilized to the climate issue and focusing on mitigation and policy responses related to climate change.     

Assessing the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: Evidence from major crop yields

This study empirically examines the effect of climate change on the yields of primary food as well as non‐food crops in India. The present study uses annual time‐series data of seven major crops such as rice, wheat, pulses, rapeseeds and mustard, cotton, sugarcane, and groundnut for 58 years (1961–20 17) to assess the influence climatic variables namely rainfall, maximum, and minimum temperatures on crop yields. The empirical findings of the study indicate that a significant effect on major crop yields from rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, but the level of impact varies across the crops studied. A rise in rainfall has an adverse effect on food crops except for pulses, however it has a positive relationship with non‐food crops throughout the study period. Further, the average maximum temperature has a positive influence on food and non‐food crops excluding rice. The average minimum temperature has an adverse impact on non‐food crops, but it has a positive association with food crops. The adverse effects of climatic factors on crop yields may be likely to pose severe implications for food and nutritional security. Conclusively, this study recommends taking adaptation activities to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change.     

国际气候问题及我国应对之策

2010年底在墨西哥坎昆召开的联合国气候大会,标志着冷战结束以来以国际气候变化为代表的全球环境问题,已经成为影响当前国际安全和国际关系的重大问题。该问题对包括我国在内的广大发展中国家的国家利益和国家安全都有很深的影响。国际气候变化问题的实质是西方利用其话语霸权之优势,阻遏非西方世界过快赶超而精心设计的战略陷阱和圈套,是国际政治斗争与国家利益较量的新型表现形式,其核心是所谓的"气候政治学"。对此,我国应有充分的认识,并积极应对。     

Technology Innovation as a Response to Climate Change: The Case of the Climate Change Emissions Management Corporation of Alberta

Innovation is the central element of climate change policy in many jurisdictions. Reduced to technology development and linked to market‐driven priorities, innovation accommodates the interests of large emitters in the energy sector and underpins a sustainable development discourse that denies ecological limits to economic growth. This study examines the use of innovation as a key component of climate change policy in the case of Alberta's Climate Change Emissions Management Corporation, utilizing a political economy approach to explain the drivers of government funding priorities. An analysis of this technology fund's investments over nine years, under two different governments, revealed that nearly half of the revenue has been used to subsidize R&D in the fossil fuels industry in the name of clean energy development, and that this priority has continued despite recent government commitments under the Paris CoP agreement. The carbon levy system that generates revenue for the fund has been unsuccessful in incentivizing facility reductions, pointing to the need for more stringent regulation. Innovation as a framework for transition to a post‐carbon economy is severely limited by its exclusion of the roles of social knowledge and citizen participation in envisaging and designing paths for change.     

Building Green: Local Political Leadership Addressing Climate Change

Municipal agreements have been instrumental in communicating commitment to addressing climate change at the local level. However, what is the practical implication of this potentially symbolic decision? This study examines the power of mayoral participation in climate change agreements in driving the proliferation of sustainable or “green” building in a city as a mechanism to reach its climate change goals. In addition, mayors can localize what is otherwise a public good by framing green buildings as having other tangible impacts on a community. We analyze the impact of political leadership on green building projects in 591 cities in 50 U.S. states, controlling for a variety of city‐ and state‐level variables. Hierarchical models indicate that mayoral leadership in climate change policy fosters green building, while state‐level predictors are not as important as city policy in creating green buildings. Our research concludes that local governments can be a very effective venue in addressing broad climate change goals.     

Inside UN Climate Change Negotiations: The Copenhagen Conference

UN negotiations on climate change entail a fundamental transformation of the global economy and constitute the single most important process in world politics. This is an account of the 2009 Copenhagen summit from the perspective of a government delegate. The article offers a guide to global climate negotiations, tells the story of Copenhagen from behind closed doors, and assesses the current state of global climate governance. It outlines key policy issues under negotiation, the positions and policy preferences of key countries and coalitions, the outcomes of Copenhagen, and achievements and failures in climate negotiations to date. The Copenhagen Accord is a weak agreement designed to mask the political failure of the international community to create a global climate treaty. However, climate policy around the world is making considerable progress. While the UN negotiations process is deadlocked, multilevel climate governance is thriving.     

Combating Climate Change in the UK: Challenges and Obstacles1

There is a curious disjunction between the Labour Government's international actions and its domestic policy. Although Tony Blair did much to promote the climate change agenda on the international stage, domestically, with carbon emissions rising again, the Government will fail to meet its target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2010. This article examines the weaknesses in the Labour Government's domestic record and assesses the significance of the recent transformation of climate change politics. Several obstacles to the design and delivery of more effective policies are identified, which can be categorised as either problems of ‘environmental politics’ or ‘environmental governance’. It is argued that the recent politicisation of climate change has overcome some of these obstacles ‐ albeit temporarily ‐ but whether the pressure for further policy measures can be sustained, with a long‐term impact on environmental governance, remains uncertain.     

Fairness on the Day after Tomorrow: Justice, Reciprocity and Global Climate Change

Climate change raises important questions of global distributive justice, which can be defined as the issue of how benefits and burdens should be distributed within and between generations. This article addresses two conceptual issues that underpin the relationship between climate change and the part of distributive justice concerned with the entitlements of future persons. The first is the role of reciprocity, conceived either as mutual advantage or fair play, in the allocation of distributive entitlements between generations. The second is the extent to which theories of 'justice as reciprocity' can ground duties of intergenerational justice that underpin radical policies to manage the causes and impacts of global climate change. I argue that theories of justice as fair reciprocity generate significant duties of environmental conservation, despite these duties not being owed directly to the not-yet-born.     

Autonomous Local Climate Change Policy: An Analysis of the Effect of Intergovernmental Relations Among Subnational Governments

Local governments have emerged as important players in climate change governance, both at home and on the international stage. Likewise, action by states and provinces has been increasingly highlighted, particularly as national actors have moved slowly to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But to what extent do local governments act independently from state and provincial governments in the area of climate change mitigation? Using an explicit process tracing approach, the article tests two hypotheses regarding the influence of upper level subnational governments on local policy. In Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, a city that is a climate change leader, provincial government intervention cannot explain the results of climate change mitigation policy making. This suggests that local governments can exercise an important degree of autonomy over climate change policy, but also implies that where municipalities are less independently committed to climate action, active upper level government intervention will likely be needed.