A Game Changer in EU-Turkey Relations: The Opportunities and Pitfalls of Migration Policy

ABSTRACT

The mass migration from Syria has been a major turning point and an important ‘game changer’ in EU-Turkey relations, as it marks a watershed in immigration and asylum between two periods: from 1999 to 2011 and from 2011 to the present. During the first period, the EU was one of the driving forces of change in Turkey’s immigration and asylum policy, along with significant migration movements from the Middle East. Although EU demands were largely implemented due to the country’s changing migration profile, there was also ongoing resistance and reluctance towards the EU, thus a certain degree of conditionality. With the Syrian mass migration in 2011, however, and in particular the so-called ‘European refugee crisis’ in 2015, Turkey started to use migration as a foreign policy tool with which to oppose EU conditionality.     

French immigration policy

From the late nineteenth century through 1974, France permitted immigration to furnish workers and to compensate for the low level of fertility. Intense immigration from North Africa, the economic crisis of the 1970s, and other factors led to policy changes in 1974. French immigration policy since 1974 has fluctuated between guaranteeing foreigners equal rights regardless of their religion, race, culture, or national origin, and attempting to differentiate among immigrants depending on their degree of assimilability to French culture. From 1974 to 1988, France had five different policies regarding whether to permit new immigration and what to do about illegal immigrants. In July 1984, the four major political parties unanimously supported a measure in Parliament that definitively guaranteed the stay in France of legal immigrants, whose assimilation thus assumed priority. Aid for return to the homeland was no longer to be widely offered, and immigration of unskilled workers was to be terminated except for those originating in European Community countries. Major changes of government in 1988 and 1993 affected only the modalities of applying these principles. The number of immigrants has fluctuated since 1974. Unskilled workers, the only category whose entrance was specifically controlled by the 1984 measures, have declined from 174,000 in 1970 to 25,000 in the early 1990s. The number of requests for political asylum declined from 60,000 in 1989 to 27,000 in 1993, and in 1991, 15,467 persons were granted refugee status. The number of immigrants of all types permitted to remain in France declined from 250,000 or 3000 per year in the early 1970s to around 110,000 at present. Although the decline is significant, it appears insufficient to the government in power since 1993. Although migratory flows are often explained as the product of imbalance in the labor market or in demographic growth, the French experience suggests that government policies, both in the sending and receiving countries, are a more potent determinant.     

亚太移民区域磋商机制与国际移民问题

近年来，全球人口最为集中的亚洲及太平洋地区，人口偷渡和贩卖层出不穷，难民问题日益严重，区域国家间的移民劳工流动日趋频繁。面对纷繁复杂的国际移民问题，亚太国家建立了一些专门性的非正式的移民治理区域磋商机制来应对。亚太移民区域磋商机制目前发挥了一定积极作用，但有效解决亚太地区复杂的移民问题仍任重道远。亚太移民区域磋商机制若不想成为国家的“弃儿”，需要释放潜力，进行更多尝试。     

大湄公河次区域劳工移民研究

20世纪90年代以来,大湄公河次区域地区经济的繁荣和不平衡发展,造成大规模劳工移民在区域内的出现。本文将探讨大湄公河次区域劳工移民的基本概况、劳工移民给目的国和来源国带来的影响,在此基础上探讨区域内各国的劳工移民政策和管理措施。     

Italy’s Migration Policies Combating Irregular Immigration: from the Early Days to the Present Times

Italian migration policies combating irregular immigration from the early 20^th century to the present times have been increasingly debated and controversial. Four phases are detectable: the absence of a legal framework while Italy was still an emigration country, the first regulations of the 1980s, policies influenced by both the European integration process and the increase in immigration until 2002 and, lastly, the country’s controversial approaches since 2004. What is noticeable is a dichotomy in Italy’s migration policies, with generally consistent internal measures and often contrasting external ones.     

Securitisation from below: the relationship between immigration and foreign policy in South Africa's approach to the Zimbabwe crisis

The political and economic debacle in Zimbabwe has led to a large-scale influx of Zimbabweans into neighbouring South Africa. This article argues that there is a complex and significant link between the domestic response to this immigration influx and South Africa's foreign policy towards Zimbabwe. South Africa's foreign and security policy elite preferred to use an immigration approach of benign neglect as a tool to promote its ‘quiet diplomacy’ approach towards the Zimbabwean regime, treating the influx as a ‘non-problem’. But increased xenophobic violence, vigilantism and protests in townships and informal settlements against Zimbabwean and other African immigrants, culminating in widespread riots across the country in 2008, contributed to a change not only in immigration policy but also in the mediation efforts towards the Zimbabwean parties. I argue that this foreign policy change was pushed by a process of ‘securitisation from below’, where the understanding of Zimbabwean immigrants as a security threat were promoted not by traditional security elites but by South Africa's marginalised urban poor.     

移民政治认同对国家关系的影响——以东南亚一些国家为例

本文拟用政治学理论,以冷战时期的新加坡、印尼和缅甸等国为例,从移民政治认同、移民政治认同的建构入手,探讨移民政治认同对国家关系的影响。笔者认为,移民的政治认同,如同移民的文化认同一样,如果处理得不好,不能顺着时代的发展而有所变迁,不仅会给移民的生存和发展带来困难,而且也会引起国家之间的紧张,以致国家关系的破裂。     

A Nested Game Approach to Political and Economic Liberalization in Democratizing States: The Case of South Korea

South Korea enjoyed high rates of economic growth until the mid–1990s. However in mid–1997 the country went into a severe economic crisis which ultimately resulted in a request for an IMF bailout. Leading up to the crisis, the government had embarked upon democratic liberalization but not much economic liberalization. This research explores why the government would lay the foundation for political reform without creating institutions capable of imposing economic reform on the politically powerful business sector. The absence of such institutions put the government in a position where it could not respond to the emerging economic crisis. The government's inability to act eroded its own position of power and governance. From this perspective, the government's inattention to economic reform appears irrational as it led to a weakening of its own position. We build a model of political and economic liberalization showing that the government was engaged in nested games (i.e., games in multiple arenas) with the political opposition, the labor unions, and the powerful business sector. We develop an argument that strong, antiliberal economic actors create incentive for the government in a democratizing state to refrain from economic liberalization, even while moving forward with democratic liberalization.     

"Us" and "them": European and North American attitudes to immigration

This work compares attitudes toward immigration in Europe and North America. Europe has adopted and reinforced a restrictive immigration policy since the 1970s, but family reunification and asylum for refugees have replaced labor migration to maintain the flow of newcomers over the past two decades. Illegal immigration has increased in countries such as Italy and Spain where immigration is a recent phenomenon. Migratory pressure from the former Soviet block, violence against immigrants in Germany and elsewhere, the crisis of social protection systems, economic recession and increasing unemployment have pressured European governments to reinforce their closed door policy. In the US, restrictions against immigration have relaxed greatly since adoption of the Immigration Reform and Control Act in 1986. Over 800,000 immigrants have been admitted annually to the US in recent years. The factors explaining the different immigration policies in North America and Europe are not economic or demographic, but stem rather from history, social structure, the functioning of the labor market and social mobility. North America, more than Europe, has a positive view of immigration as contributing to the vitality and renewal of the culture and promoting development by broadening experience and knowledge. Immigration is regarded in Europe as, at best, a necessity in times of labor shortage and economic expansion. European countries tend to perceive themselves as totally formed and not requiring further cultural contribution. Homogeneity in culture, language, and religion is valued. Social mobility is possible in North America through professional success, but in the older and more hierarchical societies of Europe, social status is determined by birth and family or other connections. Since the early 1990s, public opinion toward immigration has become less favorable on both sides of the Atlantic, with increasing proportions favoring limitation. The positive perception of immigration in America and the work of pressure groups have thus far blocked restrictionist measures. In Europe, restrictive policies are in perfect harmony with public opinion.     

Securitising Migration: The European Union in the Context of the Post-2011 Arab Upheavals

The migration-security nexus, already at the heart of EU policymaking before the 2011 Arab uprisings, became acute after the forced displacements from Syria and the deterrence measures introduced. The internalisation by broader publics of “security knowledge” regarding migration contributed to the securitisation move. However, the construction of migration into a security-laden notion goes beyond both the adoption of deterrence measures and the straightforward association of migration with state as well as societal (in)security. Through the lens of its cooperative tools with its southern neighbours, the EU has built complex interdependencies between migration, post-2011 regional stabilisation and security. In order to read the EU’s securitised migration politics properly, the migration-security nexus must be embedded in its social, geopolitical and temporal fields. Perceptions of geopolitical threats, concurrent strains and divergences over European integration and immigration constitute an enabling terrain for the politics of securitisation.     

Civil war,genocide and political order in Rwanda: security implications of refugee return

Scholars and policy-makers now recognise the security risks posed by refugee militarisation, including the spread of civil war and regional destabilisation. These analysts pay little attention to the militarised exiles once they return home. Instead, repatriation is uncritically accepted as the most desirable solution to refugee crises and as a prerequisite for post-conflict peace-building. Undoubtedly, the vast majority of the refugees desire a peaceful and stable return home. For the minority of militarised exiles, however, return may facilitate a continuance of their programme of political violence. This article examines whether and how previously militarised refugees engage in political violence upon return. It does this by tracing five decades of forced migration in Rwanda, paying particular attention to the Tutsi exiles in Uganda and their eventual militarised return. In the Rwandan case, leaders relied on the mechanism of socialisation, defined as transformative learning and the development of new worldviews, to achieve their goals. Such socialisation operated in exile to form the Tutsi exile army and later functioned as a tool for the coercive imposition of political control in Rwanda.     

Labor migration numbers and rights: do they trade off or advance together?

This article reconsiders the argument that as labor immigration policy opens, it must also become more restrictive in terms of immigrant rights. After discussing this tradeoff logic, positing a negative relationship between external (numbers) and internal (rights) labor migration policy, it then extends the underlying political model to show that when accounting for the lobbying pressure of firms seeking high skill labor, a very different expectation emerges. This political accommodation argument predicts a positive relationship between external and internal migration policy, or that policy related to labor immigration openness and immigrant rights should advance together, although not necessarily quickly or at the same rate. It then tests these competing propositions using a new dataset that sorts labor migration policy changes among 38 advanced industrial democracies from 1995 to 2016 into these two dimensions, finding a significant positive relationship between them.     

Immigration and economic development in Eastern Asia

This work describes recent trends in East Asian migration and their economic effects. The great waves of emigration of the past have largely ceased from Japan and the "dragons" of East Asia, and all have become countries of illegal immigration, return of emigrants, and legal entry of professionals. All the countries except Hong Kong have maintained strict immigration policies in order to protect their traditional and homogeneous societies and the employment and income of their own citizens. But despite active encouragement of industrial displacement to countries with cheap and abundant manpower, the labor shortages in these countries have become so severe that they have had to tolerate increased immigration. There is little evidence that immigrants have taken the jobs of natives or caused their incomes to decrease. They appear to complement shrinking local labor forces in these countries of drastically reduced fertility. The annual growth of the active population is predicted to decline from 523,000 in the 1980s to 227,000 in the 1990s in Japan, from 231,000 to 149,000 in Taiwan, and from 400,000 to 300,000 in Korea. Full employment was achieved in Japan in the early 1960s, in Taiwan in the late 1960s, in Hong Kong in the early 1970s, and in Korea in the late 1980s. Full employment was the major factor prompting relaxed immigration controls in these countries. The foreign workers are concentrated in less skilled jobs in dirty or dangerous industries that are shunned by the local population. Opponents of liberalized immigration policies cite the supplementary expenditures for infrastructure and services necessitated by the workers as well as for integration of workers desiring longterm settlement, especially if they are of different ethnicity. No definitive conclusions can be drawn about the overall positive or negative impact of immigration in East Asia without specifying the perspective from which the analysis is made--economic or social, short or long term, from the employee's viewpoint or the employer's. The consequences of importing manpower must be studied in relation to possible alternatives.     

No Return to the Past for Russia

Russian society is awakening and issues of domestic political and economic performance have come under closer scrutiny. To respond to the change, the Kremlin has moved to modify its method of governance – and strengthen its instruments of control – but there can be no return to the past. How the political process will evolve, and what the results will be, is impossible to predict, but the change will impact on Russia's domestic and foreign policies. In the meantime, Russia's international partners will have to deal with a familiar set of policies aimed at balancing between Moscow's real needs, its views of Russia's role and the opportunities which present themselves.     

The EU-Turkey Deal One Year On: A Delicate Balancing Act

Now in its sixth year, the war in Syria has triggered the largest humanitarian and refugee crisis of our time. For most refugees and migrants, Turkey is the main transit country to reach Europe, where Syrian refugees hope for a better future. However, this journey has been hampered as several European countries closed their borders following the arrival of an unprecedented number of migrants and asylum seekers in 2015. In response, a deal was struck with Turkey to stem the migrant flow to Europe in exchange for some concessions. By outsourcing the management of migration flows to Turkey, the EU is failing to take its fair share of responsibility for refugee protection. Furthermore, as a result of the political situation in Turkey and the unmet promises under the deal, relations between Turkey and the EU have touched their lowest point since the start of accession negotiations in 2005. While survival of the deal is of critical importance as the EU needs Turkey’s assistance in curbing migration flows and Turkey is keen on revitalising its accession negotiations, the deal has exposed serious flaws that need to be addressed and must not be replicated with other countries.     

Prompting democratic transitions from abroad: International donors and multi‐partyism in Tanzania

It is generally accepted that the international donor community influences the politics of recipient states. In particular, donor calls for political liberalization are seen to have had, and continue to have, effects upon democratization in countries dependent upon international economic assistance. Such democratic contingency tied to aid suggests that the continuation of aid flows, and possibly an increase in aid transfer sums, occurs in response to political liberalization. It also implies the threat of decreases in, or even cessation of, foreign aid should the recipient state fail to implement political reform. This research assesses the role that the donor community plays in recipient states’ transition to democracy, focusing on Tanzania as a case study. Tanzania, a major recipient of foreign aid, underwent fundamental political reform in 1992. This study combines analysis of fluctuations in bilateral aid flows to Tanzania with interpretations of the causal role played by donor pressure from the perspectives of representatives of the donor community as well as from members of Tanzania's political elite. These perspectives are derived from original interviews conducted by the author. The findings indicate no correlation between fluctuations in aid transfers and Tanzania's implementation of multi‐party democracy. Rather, it was the perception among the Tanzanian leadership of a direct linkage between donor aid disbursements and political liberalization that prompted the political transition.     

19世纪中叶朝鲜人向俄国远东移民原因探析

19世纪60年代,俄国远东地区出现了第一批朝鲜移民。朝鲜人向俄国移民的初期,移民得到积极安置,此后每年都有大批朝鲜人迁入俄国,他们逐渐成为俄国远东地区的主要劳动力。朝鲜人向俄国远东地区移民,不仅受东北亚国际关系的影响,更取决于俄国、朝鲜乃至中国的国内状况,它是在国内外综合因素作用下所引发的一种国际移民现象。     

Mozambican refugee resettlement: survival strategies of involuntary migrants in South Africa

Five cases of individual Mozambique refugees who settled in the Rhulani settlement in the Gazankulu homeland of South Africa during the Mozambique civil war reveal that successful resettlement at war's end is dependent on living conditions in the home versus the refugee camps for Rhulani refugees. The case studies were selected from open ended interviews with about 48 individuals. Push factors are identified as follows: autonomy in refugee camps, level of support for refugees returning, the process of refugee settlement in camps and the level of socioeconomic development among exiled refugees, and the perception of refugees of safe political conditions in areas of origin. Pull factors are identified as level of cohesion in the refugee community, ethnic ties with the host community, and long length of stay and greater acculturation. The General Peace Agreement in 1992 and collaborative planning resulted in Rhulani refugee resettlement in areas of origin and refugees' return to Rhulani. The Mozambique resettlement areas were not viable settlements with access to productive activities and services but land and infrastructure ravaged by war. The Rhulani settlement included about 3000 refugees who lived across the road from the village of Lillydale (Nkwinyamahembe) in Mhala district. Most refugees came from the Magude province of Mozambique (Mapulanguene, Macaene, Chikwembu, and Savele villages). The case studies provide information about the nature of the involuntary migration, the stresses and adjustment strategies of refugees, and the physical and sociopolitical context of the process of settlement and resettlement. The case studies profile some of the refugees' experiences. This refugee population is unique in receiving little relief activity and by the role of the homeland government in restricting gainful employment, owning livestock, and use of only a 22 square meter plot of land. The case studies include a spokesperson for the refugees in the camp, an older man who had been a labor migrant in the South African mines, a woman whose husband had been a labor migrant, a 9-year-old child traveling with two sisters and his maternal grandfather, and a 55 year old former labor migrant and long-term Rhulani refugee resident.     

Regional International Organizations and Individual Immigration Attitudes: Results from Finite Mixture Models

When are individuals more likely to support immigration? We suggest here that regional international organizations (IOs; for example, the European Union) publicly release reports about the scale and benefits of immigration to member states in the region in which these IOs operate. We argue that unlike individuals who are uninformed about immigration, informed individuals who have more knowledge of the main regional IO in which their country participates will be more likely to employ immigration reports released by their regional IO to construct their immigration attitudes. They will also perceive that these reports are credible. The credibility of these reports helps individuals with more knowledge about their region’s main IO to view immigrants favorably, which translates to support for immigration. We test our prediction by developing a finite mixture model that statistically accounts for the econometric challenges that emerge when uninformed individuals “save face” by disproportionately opting for the middle “status quo” category in ordinal survey response variables of immigration support. Results from the finite mixture model corroborate our prediction and are more reliable than estimates from a standard ordered probit model.