Success and design of local referenda for land conservation

From 1998 to 2006, over three‐quarters of the more than 1,550 U.S. referenda targeting open space passed. We analyze the success of the conservation movement at holding referenda in areas with greater ecological value and greater likelihood of supporting conservation. To do so, we first analyze the patterns in where referenda are held and in which finance mechanisms they employ. Controlling for these two selection patterns, we then investigate the factors determining the success of the referenda. Our findings suggest that conservation groups are pursuing a successful strategy, targeting communities with above‐average probabilities of passing referenda and higher ecological value. Nevertheless, our results suggest that overlooked opportunities exist in minority and middle‐class neighborhoods, in suburban fringe areas, and in the Southeast. © 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Voter Responses to Referenda Seeking to Exceed Revenue Limits

Following voter approval of California's Proposition 13, a body of research has attempted to explain referenda outcomes aimed at restricting public sector tax and spending authority. Evaluating the determinants of voter attitudes toward referenda to exceed spending/revenue limits, however, has received little attention. Using data for all Wisconsin school districts, we examine the outcomes of referenda to exceed revenue caps. A key finding of our research is that when voters support bonding for capital expenditures, they tend also to approve referenda to override revenue limits. This enables school districts to cover new operating costs often associated with new capital projects.     

Intergovernmental grants and successful tax limitation referenda

Analyses of fiscal limitation referenda have typically ignored the role of institutional structure in referenda outcomes. This article demonstrates the importance of such structure through the investigation of intergovernmental grants in a model of federal tax rate determination. Tax limitation referenda are shown to depend upon both the use of tax rates as a grant disbursement criterion as well as the size of the proposed tax cut.     

The Impact of EU Referenda on National Electoral Politics: The Dutch Case

This study deals with the issue of increasing contention regarding European matters in national arenas. Specifically, it focuses on the impact of European Union referenda on national elections. EU referenda have two important consequences for national politics: they increase inter-party conflict over Europe and gear up voters' salience to EU matters. In doing so, EU referenda allow voters to identify parties closest to them on the EU issue, thereby increasing the likelihood that they will vote for a party on the basis of EU attitudes (i.e. EU issue voting). These propositions are evaluated empirically in a quasi-experimental setting by comparing two parliamentary elections before and after the first Dutch EU referendum in 2005. The findings show that referenda indeed facilitate the development of EU issue voting. Consequently, the conclusions of this study are not only relevant to observers of Dutch politics, but also contribute to a larger debate within the field of EU studies.     

The outcome-prediction strategy in cases denied certiorari by the U.S. Supreme Court

We investigate whether the substantial use of the outcome-prediction strategy by Supreme Court justices occurs in the petitions denied certiorari by the Court. We show with a computer simulation that [Caldeira, G.A., Wright, J.R., & Zorn, C.J.W. (1999). Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, 15, 549–572], who modeled the missing final votes for denied petitions in order to include them in their study of the use of the outcome-prediction strategy, may have obtained spurious results. Application of the logic of conditional probabilities to the denied petitions suggests that all but those denied by the narrowest of margins are probably considered unacceptable by the justices on non-outcome-oriented grounds, and, therefore, are not subject to use of this strategy. We evaluate the pursuit of the outcome-prediction strategy in petitions that narrowly fail to be granted cert by focusing upon the petitions that are narrowly granted cert and find limited use of the strategy. We conclude that the outcome-prediction strategy probably is little used by the justices in confronting the petitions denied cert and that investigations of the use of this strategy are best confined to those petitions granted cert.     

Why are highly informed citizens sceptical of referenda?

Past work on attitudes toward the use of referenda finds that the most politically informed citizens are more sceptical of its use than their less informed counterparts. An intriguing tension presents itself in that those citizens who may be best equipped for referendum voting, the highly informed and politically sophisticated, are the least likely to support the use of this tool of direct democracy. Using data from Canadian Election Studies, we consider three explanations for relative referenda scepticism among political sophisticates. Our analyses provide evidence to support a confidence in government explanation and a concern for minority rights explanation, but not an incompetent public explanation – a curious finding considering the centrality of citizen competence in the theoretical literature on referenda.     

The Demand for Referendum: When Does It Arise and when Does It Succeed?*

The purpose of this article is to try to discern certain general features in the origins of the demands for referenda, and why these demands succeed or fail. A distinction is drawn between (a) the demand for a referendum on a certain issue and (b) the demand to amend the constitution to allow for referenda of one form or other. (a) Nation-wide referenda are rare almost everywhere, but demands for referenda arise more frequently. The article argues there are often regularities in the way these demands arise. A request for a referendum on one specific issue can be regarded as a minority weapon. Those who have had their standpoint voted down demand a referendum. If their demand is to succeed, two conditions are important: parties which are split and strong commitment on the part of the voters. To understand why an original minority weapon can get support from the majority, two functions of the demand for referendum are central: the function as a mediation device and as a lightning rod. (b) Concerning interest in the introduction of the referendum as a more or less regular principle of government, we find that referendum enthusiasts often share a similar ideology or view of society. The most central catchword here is antiparty sentiment.     

State Regulation and the Political Consequences of Urban Fiscal Stress

The correlates of citizen-initiated municipal tax limitationreferenda are examined for the period 1975–1977. Locallevel conditons are found to be only a partial explanation forthe initiation andoutcome of tax referenda. State fiscal support(i.e., aids and direct spending) and constraints on local fiscaland programmatic activities are found to be significant correlatesof tax referenda.     

Political markets, property tax referenda, and local school spending

For better or worse, fiscal decisions made through property tax referenda allow local political markets to work. Demand, supply, and voting process components of such markets are estimated for those Oregon K-12 school districts that held referenda between 1981 and 1986. Various attributes of the median voter were related to school spending, but supply decisions by school boards and administrators were also important. Large districts used state aid to substitute for local property tax revenues on nearly a one-for-one basis, while relying on reversion budgets (inadequate property tax bases and implicit threats of school closures) to extract greater-than-desired spending levels from the median voter.     

Referendum Design: An Exercise in Applied Social Choice Theory

The formal status of the referendum institution in democratic system varies from consultative and optional to mandatory and binding. Despit the formal status, it can be argued that in all systems the legislators can hardly ignore the referendum results. The article presents two arguments: (1) The results of social choice theory suggest that the number of alternatives in referenda should to be restricted to two in order to a void severe problems of interpretation and agenda manipulation. (2) The consultative referendum system may lead to quite dramatic norm conflicts for both legislators and voters. Taken together, these two arguments imply that referenda are appropriate only in cases where there is natural way to dichotomize the issue at hand. Moreover, whenever a referendum is called, its result should be binding.     

Direkte Demokratie in Europa: Erträge,Probleme und Perspektiven der vergleichenden Forschung

In recent years, the number of publications investigating national referenda in Europe on both a theoretical and a comparative basis has considerably grown. The review essay takes stock of this literature, focusing on three questions: What are the main reasons for introducing and using direct-democratic institutions? How can the results of referenda and initiatives be explained? What effects do they have on parliamentary democracy? The critical review sheds light on important achievements as well as persistent gaps and problems of the existing scholarship.     

The 2003 and 2015 Constitutional Referenda in Rwanda: A Significant Change in Voter Turnout

Data on voter turnout and choice at the Rwanda’s 2003 and 2015 constitutional referenda were acquired and analyzed. The results revealed contrasting changes in voter turnout between diaspora and in-country electorate. Arguably, at home, lack of freedom on the part of registered voters to make independent choices may explain the 9.3 percent and 5.2 percent increase in voter turnout and “yes” vote, respectively. On the other hand, while the repressive arm of the regime can reach Rwandan citizens both at home and abroad so as to compel them not oppose its political agenda, voters in diaspora enjoy some level of relaxation, especially those staying in Western democracies, which could explain the 37.8 percent drop in voter turnout. The article further argues that the results of the 2003 and 2015 referenda could be used to support suggestions that the Tutsi electorate indeed stands more divided than it was a decade ago.     

Who Participates in Collective Petitions in Rural China?

This article examines the question of why the risks posed by collective petitioning in China deter some villagers from participating but not others. Based on the statistical analysis of an original dataset and an ethnographic study of one case, this article finds that higher household income is the only significant factor that increases a villager??s probability to participate in collective petitions. Economic security empowers a peasant??s political participation. Contrary to the existing literature, being a demobilized soldier does not significantly increase a villager??s probability to participate in collective petitions. The implication of this finding is that petitioning as a form of ??managed participation?? in Chinese politics may face more and more challenges if the average Chinese household income continues to grow.     

The public choice of educational choice

The very small literature explaining (i) how citizens have voted in two California voucher referenda, (ii) how legislators have voted on voucher bills in the State of Florida and the US Congress, and (iii) the variation across states in charter school provisions is summarized. New empirical evidence documenting the cross-state variation in the success of voucher referenda and voucher bills is examined. Voucher bill characteristics and state characteristics play important roles. Voucher bills have been passed only in the more conservative Republican states, and almost all of the successful voucher programs have been targeted at large, struggling school districts.     

Political participation in Swiss referenda at federal and cantonal levels: 1879–1981

Political participation in the process of semidirect democracy differs in several important respects from political participation in elections in representative democracies. This study discusses patterns of participation in 300 referenda at the cantonal and federal level in Switzerland during the 1879–1981 period. The purpose of this survey is to account for cross-temporal and cross-cantonal variations in terms of: (a) referenda type, (b) competition intensity, and (c) the influence of a multiple political culture. The findings suggest that distinctive political cultures and life styles, and other collective factors account for turn-out percentages and competition intensity. Voters tend to mobilize essentially to reject constitutional revisions and laws rather than accept them. The significance of cross-temporal differences was found to diminish during the 1952–1981 period. This tendency toward increasing standardization of Swiss political participation does not, however, completely blur the specificity of participation within cantons, suggesting that the multicultural nature of Swiss society is still prevalent.     

Freedom of information in times of crisis: The case of Mexico's war on drugs

Transparency guarantees in Mexico presented a serious challenge to its 2007–2012 war on drugs. We use an original database of access to information requests, including both petitions for information and appeals to IFAI. We conduct statistical tests on the databases, finding that transparency is lower on security issues, as expected, but that there are unexpected variations between security agencies, and over time. We then conduct a content analysis of freedom of information requests to determine what drives agency responses, finding that security agencies developed various techniques to deflect petitions for information, such as falsely claiming that information has been provided when it has not, claiming that the information is outside the competence of the agency, that it does not exist, or that it is already in the public domain. Also there are significant differences in transparency between security agencies, possibly explained by their operational roles.     

The Downsian model of electoral participation: Formal theory and empirical analysis of the constituency size effect

This paper applies a game-theoretic model of participation under uncertainty to investigate the negative relationship between constituency size and voter turnout rates: theconstituency size effect. We find that this theoretical model accounts for almost all of the variation in turnout due to size in cross sectional data from school budget referenda.     

Of time,leadership, and governance: Elite incentives and stability maintenance in China

China's party‐controlled elite appointment system has been praised for contributing to growth and order in recent decades. Inspired by Mancur Olson's insight into elite incentives and governance, we examine how the Chinese practices of elite management affect the character of governance using unique survey and interview data on township leaders and social contention. We find that, first, externally appointed party secretaries experience more petitions and mass incidents during their tenure and are more likely to use coercion to deal with petitions than internally appointed secretaries. Second, these tendencies are moderated when externally appointed party secretaries are paired with internally appointed township heads We explore the implications of such behavioral differences and suggest our findings are of broad significance for understanding governance in China.     

Democracy by Competition: Referenda and Federalism in Switzerland

Competition is not only a prerequisite for the successful workingof economics but also of political coordination systems. Weargue that popular referenda and federalism are the key factorsin maintaining competition in the political arena. Competitiveeconomic or political markets require free entry and exit andthe absence of regulations that prevent suppliers from beingsuccessful with the best product-be it goods or services inthe form of policies-and prevent citizens from choosing freely.     

Voter turnout and the benefits of voting

A model of voting behavior is developed that predicts that individuals vote if the absolute value of voting for or against a referendum exceeds the cost of voting. The results obtained from examining voting on city-county consolidation referenda and in New York state (1) provide support for the relatively untested prediction that turnout rises as the absolute value of the mean gains resulting from an electoral outcome increase and (2) augment the evidence that turnout rises as the probability of altering an electoral outcome increases and falls as the cost of voting rises.