THE WAR ON POVERTY: MEASUREMENT,TRENDS, AND POLICY

We present a 50‐year historical perspective of the nation's antipoverty efforts, describing the evolution of policy during four key periods since 1965. Over this half‐century, the initial heavy reliance on cash income support to poor families has eroded; increases in public support came largely in the form of in‐kind (e.g., Food Stamps) and tax‐related (e.g., the Earned Income Tax Credit) benefits. Work support and the supplementation of earnings substituted for direct support. These shifts eroded the safety net for the most disadvantaged in American society. Three poverty‐related analytical developments are also described. The rise of the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM)—taking account of noncash and tax‐related benefits—has corrected some of the serious weaknesses of the official poverty measure (OPM). The SPM measure indicates that the poverty rate has declined over time, rather than being essentially flat as the OPM implies. We also present snapshots of the composition of the poor population in the United States using both the OPM and the SPM, showing progress in reducing poverty overall and among specific socioeconomic subgroups since the beginning of the War on Poverty. Finally, we document the expenditure levels of numerous antipoverty programs that have accompanied the several phases of poverty policy and describe the effect of these efforts on the level of poverty. Although the effectiveness of government antipoverty transfers is debated, our findings indicate that the growth of antipoverty policies has reduced the overall level of poverty, with substantial reductions among the elderly, disabled, and blacks. However, the poverty rates for children, especially those living in single‐parent families, and families headed by a low‐skill, low‐education person, have increased. Rates of deep poverty (families living with less than one‐half of the poverty line) for the nonelderly population have not decreased, reflecting both the increasing labor market difficulties faced by the low‐skill population and the tilt of means‐tested benefits away from the poorest of the poor.     

Public Finance,Governance, and Cash Transfers in Alleviating Poverty and Inequality in Chile

As the Chilean government seeks to reduce poverty and inequality through cash transfers to poor households, local governments are responsible for both identifying the poor and allocating transfers. Until recently, however, evaluating the effectiveness of local governments in enacting these policies has been restricted by data limitations. This paper builds on recent evidence that cash transfers have highly variable impacts on poverty and inequality at the county level. In particular, we explore how local public finance and the strength of the governing mandate influence the efficiency of cash transfers. With a richly specified model, we find that public spending on goods and services, the fraction of available subsidies claimed by the local government, and the share of county land that is zoned for industrial purposes are all correlated with considerable reductions in poverty and inequality. In addition, the strength of the governing mandate weakly influences the efficiency of transfers in reducing poverty, but not inequality. These results demonstrate that a better understanding of such institutions can lead to more efficient targeting for social programs.     

Child Poverty,the Great Recession,and the Social Safety Net in the United States

In this paper, we comprehensively examine the effects of the Great Recession on child poverty, with particular attention to the role of the social safety net in mitigating the adverse effects of shocks to earnings and income. Using a state panel data model and data for 2000 to 2014, we estimate the relationship between the business cycle and child poverty, and we examine how and to what extent the safety net is providing protection to at‐risk children. We find compelling evidence that the safety net provides protection; that is, the cyclicality of after‐tax‐and‐transfer child poverty is significantly attenuated relative to the cyclicality of private income poverty. We also find that the protective effect of the safety net is not similar across demographic groups, and that children from more disadvantaged backgrounds, such as those living with Hispanic or single heads, or particularly those living with immigrant household heads—or immigrant spouses—experience larger poverty cyclicality than those living with non‐Hispanic white or married heads, or those living with native household heads with native spouses. Our findings hold across a host of choices for how to define poverty. These include measures based on absolute thresholds or more relative thresholds. They also hold for measures of resources that include not only cash and near‐cash transfers net of taxes but also several measures of the value of public medical benefits.     

Recent Trends in U.S. Income and Expenditure Poverty

After many years of following similar trends, U.S. poverty rates measured by household spending in data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) fell between 2000 and 2008, while poverty measured by income rose. Comparisons of spending and income poverty in the CE with income poverty in other surveys, spending data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and a time series of employment levels, find the CE to be the outlier. The findings do not bear directly on the primary use of CE data in providing category weights for calculation of the Consumer Price Index, but do require explanation not available in CE public‐use files.     

Decentralization,Fiscal Independence,and Poverty in the Philippines

Decentralization is a common public sector reform in developing countries. Its basic rationale is that local governments have an informational advantage regarding the needs and preferences of consumers. However, decentralization also has drawbacks. Foremost is the efficiency advantage of the central government in providing public services because of economies of scale and better access to resources. This study looked at the relationship between decentralization and poverty using data from Philippine cities and municipalities. Results suggest that decentralization, as represented by fiscal independence and measured by the share of locally sourced revenues to total local government revenues, is indeed associated with lower poverty. However, this effect is not linear—the marginal effect of decentralization on poverty diminishes as decentralization increases. Moreover, decentralization moderates the positive effect of good governance on poverty reduction and the magnitude of the relationship between poverty and decentralization is stronger in poorer municipalities than in richer ones.     

Poverty Reduction in A Transforming China: A Critical Review

This review essay surveys the literature that explains China’s poverty reduction progress since the late 1970s. It examines three dominant explanations: geographic conditions, economic growth, and anti-poverty policies, whose impacts on poverty have evolved with China’s socioeconomic transformation. The review finds that the government has come to play an increasingly significant part in mitigating geographic adversity and making growth more inclusive for the poor over the last two decades. However, our understanding of the political institutions and processes underpinning poverty reduction remains incomplete because most studies concentrate on national and provincial authorities but overlook the county government. As counties have gained considerable resources and authority in poverty reduction, an investigation of their capacity and efficacy is fundamental to explain their various poverty alleviation outcomes. This essay thus proposes a framework for future research that investigates county governments’ bureaucratic arrangements and their relations to society to explain their performance in poverty reduction. This essay concludes with lessons and limitations of China’s government-led poverty alleviation campaign.

     

Children in poverty: A committee prepares for an informed debate

By gathering and disseminating information, members of the Committee on Ways and Means, and committee staff under their supervision, have played an important role in informing the debate on poverty issues during the 1980s. In the face of President Reagan's 1981 budget program, which reduced spending in the major antipoverty programs, committee members targeted substantial resources to an ongoing, albeit ad hoc, education process. The process has not only provided evidence of the adverse impact of the 1981 reductions on the poor, but has also made new contributions to the understanding of poverty. Although many other factors have contributed to outcomes in poverty policy during the 1980s, it is clear that this education process played an important role in the successes achieved thus far; partial reversal of the 1981 reductions has been achieved, tax changes have been implemented which help low-income families, and a welfare reform bill has been enacted.     

Poverty spending and the poverty gap

This paper examines two questions basic to welfare policy: (1) whether the amount of poverty-related transfers is sufficient to fill the poverty gap, and (2) which families actually get benefits and how much of their income deficit is filled by those benefits. Transfers are sufficient: the post-Social Security poverty gap is $74 billion while poverty-related programs total $198 billion. Further, 86% of current income-conditioned benefits go to the pretransfer poor and 89% of those are used to alleviate poverty (fill the poverty gap). Thus, if a substantial fraction of total Federal and State expenditures on poverty-related programs could be targeted more toward the poor, the poverty gap can be eliminated. The current programs, however, would have to be changed substantially to achieve the necessary retargeting.     

Poverty — A Precarious Public Policy Idea

The mixed economy of the welfare state armed with the new science of public administration was going to eradicate poverty. But it hasn't and the policy influence of the idea of poverty has fallen away. I explain this by looking at the conditions under which good ideas are likely to make it to policy status. Good ideas tend to be simple to understand; resonate with people's experiences of life; have leadership and a policy community around them; fit into program and resource structures of governments and seem capable of solving immediate problems. The idea of eradicating poverty has lost these features. For example, for the past 20 years poverty ideas have been knocked off their perch by economic reform ideas. Not only are there these competing economic ideas (which are claimed to be a solution to poverty), there is also a raft of new social capital ideas making claims on policy resources. The idea of poverty has been obfuscated such that we can't agree what it means any more or how to measure it or who is responsible for tackling it. Which, of course, means no one can be held accountable. Out of the muddle I suggest a way forward to make the idea influential again. For example, having some national goals and agreeing some basic language and targets would be a good start.     

Good Enough Governance: Poverty Reduction and Reform in Developing Countries

The good governance agenda is unrealistically long and growing longer over time. Among the multitude of governance reforms that "must be done" to encourage development and reduce poverty, there is little guidance about what's essential and what's not, what should come first and what should follow, what can be achieved in the short term and what can only be achieved over the longer term, what is feasible and what is not. If more attention is given to sorting out these questions, "good enough governance" may become a more realistic goal for many countries faced with the goal of reducing poverty. Working toward good enough governance means accepting a more nuanced understanding of the evolution of institutions and government capabilities; being explicit about trade-offs and priorities in a world in which all good things cannot be pursued at once; learning about what's working rather than focusing solely on governance gaps; taking the role of government in poverty alleviation seriously; and grounding action in the contextual realities of each country.     

基于空间治理视角的城市贫困研究综述

相较于农村贫困,城市贫困是一种在空间上集聚的相对贫困,明晰它的空间特征、演变规律及影响因素等对于城市贫困的精准治理有着重要作用。为此,应用Citespace科学文献可视化工具,对Web ofScience数据库中1052篇城市贫困主题的英文文献(1995—2019年)和中国知网(CNKI)数据库中2912篇相关中文文献(1981—2019年)进行分析,可从空间视角总结国内外城市贫困的研究现状及研究热点。结果表明:研究趋势上,国外对于城市贫困研究的关注度总体呈现上升趋势,而国内城市贫困的研究起步较晚、增长幅度较大,但在关注度上出现倒U型结构;概念上,从空间视角定义城市贫困多是认为居住区内的人们遭受了不同类型的“剥夺”;研究内容上,城市贫困空间的测量与识别、时空动态变化、影响因素分析及大数据的应用等是国内外城市贫困的研究热点;贫困空间的演变及成因上,受居住、种族和阶级隔离等多种经济文化因素的综合影响,国外的城市贫困呈现由内及外的郊区化现象,而国内城市贫困空间演化较为复杂多变。     

中国社会安全网研究——青岛市“阳光救助工程”的创新实践

"阳光救助工程"是青岛市2002年7月开始对中国的社会安全网建设进行的创新实践.它有效地保障了城市贫困人口特别是下岗、失业职工的基本生活权益.以青岛市"阳光救助工程"的创新实践为例,研究了中国地方政府创新对社会安全网建设的作用.通过分析"阳光救助工程"产生和发展的动力机制,并对该项举措的创新绩效进行评估后,认为,"阳光救助工程"的创新实践对完善中国社会安全网带来了许多启示.这些启示主要包括:第一,对城市贫困进行综合治理时,应在政府主导下扩大社会参与;第二,贫困问题并不单单体现在收入匮乏上,实际上还涉及到行为主体的物质、精神、社会地位等多个方面的表现;第三,从社会救济到社会救助体系的发展和完善中,应该充分发挥个人的主体性和能动性;第四,城市社会救助体系是一个多目标、多层次的社会系统,包括救济、就业、医疗等针对弱势群体的社会救助制度;第五,社区在社会安全网建设中应起到积极作用,充分发挥社区的社会保障作用.     

后脱贫时代推动金融扶贫高质量发展研究

金融扶贫高质量发展是解决相对贫困及返贫的制度安排与政策工具,能有效解决我国后脱贫时代金融扶贫资金失衡和贫困人口自我发展能力不足等难题。作为金融扶贫的延续与创新,高质量可持续的金融扶贫契合精准扶贫长远目标,提高了扶贫资金的“益贫性”,促进了贫困地区和贫困人口高质量脱贫与可持续发展,是实现乡村振兴的重要工具。后脱贫时代高质量可持续金融精准扶贫的实施,需要政府和金融部门通力合作加大政策支持力度,发挥政策长期效应;需要完善贫困识别体系,提高精准识贫质量;需要压实金融监管责任,夯实金融扶贫成果。     

Public opinion towards welfare state reform: The role of political trust and government satisfaction

The traditional welfare state, which emerged as a response to industrialization, is not well equipped to address the challenges of today's post-industrial knowledge economies. Experts and policymakers have therefore called for welfare state readjustment towards a ‘social investment’ model (focusing on human skills and capabilities). Under what conditions are citizens willing to accept such future-oriented reforms? We point at the crucial but hitherto neglected role of citizens’ trust in and satisfaction with government. Trust and satisfaction matter because future-oriented reforms generate uncertainties, risks and costs, which trust and government satisfaction can attenuate. We offer micro-level causal evidence using experiments in a representative survey covering eight European countries and confirm these findings with European Social Survey data for 22 countries. We find that trust and government satisfaction increase reform support and moderate the effects of self-interest and ideological standpoints. These findings have crucial implications not least because they help explain why some countries manage – but others fail – to enact important reforms.     

The Impact of Decentralization on Subnational Government Fiscal Slack in Indonesia

Since Indonesia began implementing its decentralization program in 2001, subnational unspent balances have grown rapidly and have reached levels that many officials find unreasonably high. But the extent to which subnational government reserves are excessive, in general, is not obvious. A not implausible decrease in the price of oil would reduce transfers to subnationals significantly and, if sustained, could possibly eliminate reserves in a relatively short time. Central government should not take any immediate action to reduce subnational slack resources directly but should instead focus on removing the underlying causes of such.     

The Effects of Contraception on Female Poverty

Poverty rates are particularly high among households headed by single women, and childbirth is often the event preceding these households’ poverty spells. This paper examines the relationship between legal access to the birth control pill and female poverty. We rely on exogenous cross‐state variation in the year in which oral contraception became legally available to young, single women. Using census data from 1960 to 1990, we find that having legal access to the birth control pill by age 20 significantly reduces the probability that a woman is subsequently in poverty. We estimate that early legal access to oral contraception reduces female poverty by 0.5 percentage points, even when controlling for completed education, employment status, and household composition.     

On the political and fiscal determinants of income redistribution under federalism and democracy: evidence from Germany

Several recent studies suggest that transfers from central to regional governments are motivated by political considerations. In this paper we examine if this is also the case for transfers from regional to central governments in the context of the German fiscal equalization system. We examine the factors that contribute to differences in tax revenues across German states. The evidence indicates that both fiscal incentives and political factors can explain these differences, although in Germany the former are more important. Moreover, accounting for fiscal institutions has important consequences for the empirical assessment of political influences on taxation. Overall we find that the political affiliation of the state governor is an important factor in explaining differences in state tax revenues. Thus, the right-wing party (CDU/CSU) is effective in relaxing the tax burden at the state level. In contrast, partisan alignment between the state government and the federal government loses its importance once fiscal conditions enter the empirical model.     

The role of tax bases and collections costs in the determination of income tax rates,seigniorage and inflation

A growing theoretical literature on optimal taxation predicts that governments will set the tax rates on money holdings and on more traditional tax bases to minimize the deadweight losses of collecting government revenue. Under the presumption that relative collection costs and tax bases have not changed significantly over time, the empirical time-series seigniorage literature has focused on the theory's tax smoothing implication, finding only weak support. We show that changes in collections costs and tax bases played an important role in the determination of tax composition and find stronger support for tax smoothing when this is taken into account.     

Politics, Altruism, and the Definition of Poverty

The history of poverty lines suggests that they are determined jointly with poverty policy in the same political game. If the definition of poverty is endogenous, however, why do altruistic voters allow poverty to persist indefinitely, as seems to be the case in real life? A simple redistribution model shows that the persistence of poverty imposes fairly strong restrictions on the nature of voter altruism. Specifically, a voter's compassion for the poor must rise as the defined severity of the poverty problem worsens. Given such preferences, political actors face incentives to define poverty as a severe problem and then to use redistribution to reduce it significantly. There is no direct incentive to eliminate poverty, however; indeed, voters may prefer a state in which policy always attacks poverty vigorously and yet never defeats it. It follows that social policy should not be judged by its success in eliminating poverty, which may be directly counter to voter interests and therefore practically impossible. Rather, we should ask whether poverty policy provides enough help to people whom voters currently consider to be poor.     

Decentralization and poverty alleviation. International experience and the case of the Philippines

In recent years, decentralization has become quite common in developing countries. The essence of decentralization is that it does not occur in general but rather in a particular context, so that decentralization takes many different forms in different countries at different times. Comparative analysis is often illuminating and the article uses it to cast some light on the current moves towards decentralization in the Philippines. Section 2 provides a quantitative overview of the relationship between decentralization and poverty across a number of Asian and Latin American countries. Section 3 discusses key aspects of the relationship between decentralization and poverty alleviation in the Philippines, drawing on a number of decentralization experiences in countries such as Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia and Vietnam. Section 3.1 focuses on local capacity and Section 3.2 on local financial resources, in particular the role of fiscal transfers. Section 3.3 examines the effects of different approaches to decentralization on the targeting and delivery of poverty‐related services—health, primary education, housing and infrastructure. Section 4 concludes by noting the importance of migration in any treatment of decentralization and poverty. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.