To what extent does civil commitment reduce sexual recidivism? Estimating the selective incapacitation effects in Minnesota

PurposeThis study examines the selective incapacitation effects of civil commitment on sexual reoffending among 105 Minnesota sex offenders who were civilly committed between 2004 and 2006.MethodsThe Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3, a sexual recidivism risk assessment instrument, was used to estimate what the four-year sexual recidivism rate would have been for these offenders had they been released to the community. Integration of Survival with Quality of Life (iSQoL) software was used to extrapolate the survival curves over a 50-year period to develop a lifetime sexual recidivism estimate.ResultsIf the 105 civilly committed sex offenders had been released to the community, an estimated nine percent would have been reconvicted of a new sex offense within four years. Civilly committing these offenders therefore likely reduced the overall four-year sexual recidivism rate by 12 percent. The results further suggest that if these offenders had been released to the community, an estimated 28 percent would be rearrested for another sex offense within their lifetime.ConclusionsTo better align the costs of civil commitment with its public safety benefits, states operating these programs should emphasize the use of intermediate alternatives in the community for a more positive return on investment.     

How should we understand the effect of age on sexual recidivism?

Abstract

Research into the effect of age on sexual recidivism risk is a relatively new and developing area of interest and is likely to be of great interest for forensic practitioners responsible for the community supervision of sexual offenders. Meta-analytical and follow-up reconviction studies indicate an inverse relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk, where younger sex offenders pose a greater risk of reconviction than older sex offenders. This finding has led to the development of actuarial risk scales which identify younger sex offenders (<25 years) as posing the greatest risk. However, recent research studies have reported contradictory results to this assumption and found a non-linear relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk. Only a small number of studies have investigated the effect of age on sexual recidivism by comparing age bands and rates of sexual recidivism. Researchers have also considered the effect of age on actuarial risk, which risk factors are associated with which age bands and sexual recidivism rates between sex offender subgroups. The purpose of this paper is to integrate this research and to link commonalities between these studies. This paper organizes the effect of age on sexual recidivism into five categories: (i) the effect of age and actuarial risk; (ii) the effect of age on sexual arousal; (iii) the effect of age-at-release on sexual recidivism risk; (iv) the effect of age-at-first-offence on sexual recidivism risk; and (v) the effect of age on child molesters and rapists on sexual recidivism risk. Important differences were found between age bands of sexual offenders in terms of sexual recidivism risk and actuarial risk factors as well as differences between rapists and child molesters. The relative importance of factoring age when assessing risk in sex offenders is discussed.     

Arbitrary decision making in the absence of evidence: an examination of factors related to treatment selection and recidivism for female sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

As criminal justice professionals are asked to assign risk levels and treat females who sexually offend, identifying risk factors for recidivism prediction and treatment targets is important. Although the majority of risk and treatment studies have focused on males, general female offender research and developing research with female sex offenders both provide some evidence for possible factors related to sexual offending behaviour in women. The purpose of this study was to explore what possible factors were related to treatment selection in a sample of 506 females serving prison sentences for a sexual offense, and, in turn, to examine which factors predicted non-sexual and sexual recidivism. Results demonstrated that exploratory variables were significantly related to treatment selection, as opposed to variables previously supported in research. Furthermore, living with a significant other for more than two years, and prior sexual offending arrests predicted sexual recidivism, while decreased age and treatment participation predicted non-sexual recidivism. These findings indicate that while similarities between male and female sexual offenders exist, females still demonstrate gender-specific risk factors.     

Long-term follow-up of criminal recidivism in young sex offenders: Temporal patterns and risk factors

Abstract

Recent studies indicate that risk for criminal re-offending in identified adult sex offenders may persist decades after the index offence, calling for inquiry into these issues also for younger sex offenders. The author studied temporal patterns for criminal reconvictions and the validity of 16 empirically motivated risk factors for recidivism among all young sex offenders (15–20 years of age) subjected to pre-sentence forensic psychiatric evaluations in Sweden during 1980–1995 (N = 126). The Ss were followed from release and for an average of 115 months. One-hundred-and-seventeen (115 male, 2 female) Ss were available for follow-up with a mean time-at-risk of 80 months. Base rates for sexual and violent non-sexual reconvictions were 30% and 42%, respectively. Using time-at-risk-adjusted hazard ratios derived from Cox regression, characteristics indicative of deviant sexual interest (any previous sex offending behaviour, an index sex offence in a public area, involving a stranger victim, offending on two or more offence occasions, and two or more victims) were found to increase the risk for sexual recidivism. Markers of antisocial lifestyle (early signs of DSM-IV Conduct Disorder and any prior violent conviction), sex offence-related characteristics indicating aggression proneness (use of threats or force and physical victim injury), and victim penetration, increased the risk for violent non-sexual reconvictions. Survival analyses indicated that the rate of sexual reconvictions as a function of time at risk decreased distinctly after 6–7 years whereas the rate for violent non-sexual reconvictions remained largely the same.     

The long term recidivism risk of young sexual offenders in England and Wales– enduring risk or redemption?

PurposeTo examine the long-term sexual recidivism risk of juvenile sex offenders in England and Wales, and to compare the risk to that of a first time sexual offense for non-convicted juveniles. Additionally, the study explores the long term sexual recidivism risk of other types of juvenile offenders, and the long term violent recidivism risk of these groups.MethodsThe England and Wales Offenders Index was used to extract birth cohort data. Life table methods were used to estimate cumulative recidivism risk, and discrete time hazard models were used to compare hazard functions.ResultsAt the five year period, 7% of juvenile sexual offenders have been reconvicted of a sexual offense; reaching 13% by the end of the 35 year follow-up. When the reconviction hazard of the juvenile sexual offenders was compared with the first sexual conviction risk of a non-convicted comparison group, the hazards converged statistically after 17 years.ConclusionsThe study has implications for the registration periods of juvenile sex offenders. Indefinite registration for some juveniles needs to be considered, and a review of registration after a conviction free period would provide more balance between the protection of the public and the rights of the offender.     

The impact of disrupted caregiving for juvenile sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

Research that attempts to understand why young people commit sex crimes points to an array of family factors that may uniquely contribute to sexual offending over general juvenile delinquency. This study examines the potentially moderating role of disrupted caregiving in the relationship between offending and caregiver-child relationship quality. Two distinct moderators were tested: gender of caregiver and biological relationship between caregiver and child. Results indicate that juvenile sexual offenders have particularly poor relationships with their primary caregivers compared to incarcerated non-sexual offenders and community controls. Furthermore, sexual offenders with male caregivers were found to have lower relationship quality scores than sexual offenders with female caregivers. In contrast, sexual offenders raised by non-biological caregivers reported better relationship quality than did offenders raised by their biological parents. These findings suggest opportunities for early intervention, before caregiving is disrupted.     

Outcome evaluation of a high-intensity inpatient sex offender treatment program

The treatment outcome of a high-intensity inpatient sex offender treatment program was evaluated by comparing the sexual recidivism rates of 472 treated and 282 untreated sex offenders. The program is designed for moderate- to high-risk sex offenders and follows the principles of effective correctional treatment. The current investigation is an extension of an earlier study (Nicholaichuk et al., 2000) with the addition of 176 participants, an extra 4 years follow-up, and the use of Cox regression survival analysis to control for three potentially confounding variables: age of release, sexual offending history, and length of follow-up. Treated offenders sexually recidivated significantly less than the comparison group over nearly 20 years of follow-up, even after controlling for the aforementioned variables. The substantive findings suggest that treatment adhering to the what works principles can reduce long-term sexual recidivism for a moderate- to high-risk group of sex offenders.     

THE IMPACT OF MEGAN'S LAW ON SEX OFFENDER RECIDIVISM: THE MINNESOTA EXPERIENCE*

Although Megan's Law was passed more than 10 years ago, very little is known as to whether it reduces sex offender recidivism significantly. Using a retrospective quasi‐experimental design, we examine whether community notification has a deterrent effect by comparing the recidivism rates of 155 level 3 (“high public risk”) sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 1997 and 2002 who were subject to broad notification with two separate control groups who were not. The first control group (referred to as the prenotification group) contained 125 sex offenders released between 1990 and 1996 (the 7 years preceding the implementation of the Community Notification Act) who likely would have been subject to broad community notification had the law been in effect at the time of their release. The second control group (referred to as the non‐notification group) was composed of 155 offenders (37 level 1 and 118 level 2) released between 1997 and 2002 who were not subject to broad community notification. The results from the Cox proportional hazards models reveal that broad community notification significantly reduced the risk of time to a sex reoffense (rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration) compared with both control groups. The findings were mixed, however, for both non‐sex and general reoffending. Whereas broad community notification significantly reduced the risk of timing to both non‐sex and general recidivism compared with the prenotification group, no such effects were found in the non‐notification group analyses. We discuss the implications of these results and attempt to explain why Megan's Law seems to reduce sex offense recidivism in Minnesota.     

Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk

Abstract

The study of risk for sexual recidivism has undergone substantial development in recent years. The foundation for advances in this area has been the use of actuarial measures to identify subgroups of offenders with different observed rates of sexual re-offending over time. An unresolved issue within this research area has been the moderating function of age in the assessment of risk. The current study examined sexual re-offending as a function of age and actuarial risk in a large sample of sexual offenders released from prison between 1990 and 2004. There was an overall decrease in the rate of sexual re-offending over the age of 50. However, a small group of offenders from the higher actuarial risk categories of the older age groups continued to re-offend at higher rates than their lower-risk peers.     

Responding to youth sexual offending: a field-based practice model that “closes the gap” on sexual recidivism among Indigenous and non-Indigenous males

Abstract

Most studies that have explored the impact of youth sexual offender treatment on recidivism have not assessed whether effectiveness varies for important subgroups. The present study evaluated the impact of treatment provided by the Griffith Youth Forensic Service (GYFS) on 104 adjudicated youth sexual offenders referred between 2006 and 2012. Sexual, violent and “other” offending outcomes were examined, based on Australian Indigenous cultural heritage and whether the youth resided in a remote community, over an average 2.5-year follow-up timeframe. The findings indicated that GYFS treatment was equally effective for Indigenous and non-Indigenous youth for preventing sexual recidivism and, for youth residing in remote and non-remote locations, for preventing sexual, violent and “other” recidivism. Treatment was less effective in preventing violent and “other” recidivism for Indigenous youth. The core components of the GYFS treatment programme therefore appear particularly well suited for reducing sexual recidivism by Indigenous offenders and those residing in remote communities.     

Low recidivism rates of child sex offenders in a Finnish 7-year follow-up

ABSTRACT

This study examines the recidivism rates of Finnish child sex offenders convicted in 2010 (n = 361) over a follow-up period of seven years. The results indicate that while reoffending for other types of offences was common (34%), offenders had very low sexual crime recidivism rates (1%). In terms of more persistent criminal careers, less than a quarter of the offenders had both a previous criminal history and at least one subsequent offence during the follow-up period. Offenders with child sexual abuse material-related crimes reoffended more rarely than did others. Study limitations and implications for policymaking, media and rehabilitation are discussed.     

Sexual offenders with learning disabilities: risk,recidivism and treatment

Abstract

While the literature on the assessment, treatment and management of non-learning disabled sexual offenders is well established, it is only in recent years that researchers and clinicians have focused on sexual offenders with learning disabilities. In contrast to mainstream sex offender treatment programmes, there are few evaluated community-based treatment programmes for sexual offenders with learning disabilities, and of the small number of published studies that describe treatment programmes, most are based on small samples and few have been validated empirically. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities differ from their non-disabled counterparts in several important ways, having implications for management and treatment. Due to methodological differences between studies, the prevalence of sexual offending by men with learning disabilities is not clear. However, in some studies, the sexual recidivism rate of offenders with learning disabilities is 6.8 times and 3.5 times that of non-disabled sexual offenders at 2- and 4-years’ follow-up, respectively. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities are also at greater risk of re-offending in a shorter time period. There remains an urgent need for further research into the assessment of risk and whether components from mainstream treatment programmes can be adapted to meet the needs of learning disabled sexual offenders. Approaches to working with sexual offenders with learning disabilities and programme development are discussed.     

The role of cognitive distortions in paedophilic offending: Internet and contact offenders compared

Abstract

Cognitive distortions are held to contribute to sexual offending against children in a number of theoretical explanations of such crimes. However, not only is there little or no direct evidence in support of the centrality of cognitive distortions in offending but recent research has questioned whether the concept has explanatory power. Cognitive distortions are variously seen as necessary for the offender to offend against children, as post-offending justifications for the offence, or as reflecting distorted patterns in the offender's upbringing. This paper explores the role of cognitive distortions in sex offending by comparing the distortions of contact sex offenders against children with Internet child pornography offenders without contact offences against children. A new cognitive distortions questionnaire was developed which was suitable for administration to Internet offenders who had no contact offences against children as well as being suitable for contact offenders. It was found that some cognitive distortions are frequently agreed with by sex offenders against children whereas others were seldom or never agreed with. Little support was found for earlier typological approaches to the cognitive schema of sex offenders against children. Contrary to the expectation that contact offenders would have more cognitive distortions, it was found that Internet offenders had more cognitive distortions that children are sexual beings. Furthermore, there were no differences in cognitive distortions justifying the offence. However, offenders with a previous history of offending were more likely to admit to cognitive distortions which justify their offending. It is accepted that cognitive distortions are readily recognized in interviews with sex offenders against children. Nevertheless, it is argued that there is a need for new research to stimulate a new understanding of the nature and role of cognitive distortions in sex offending.     

The adolescence-adulthood transition and Robins’s continuity paradox: Criminal career patterns of juvenile and adult sex offenders in a prospective longitudinal birth cohort study

PurposeIt is assumed that juvenile sex offenders (JSO) are tomorrow's adult sex offenders (ASO) and ASO were previously JSO. The current study tests these two assumptions using prospective longitudinal data.MethodsUsing data from the 1984 Dutch Birth Cohort study, the study examines the criminal career of JSO and the continuity of sex offending into early adulthood.ResultsThe study findings show much heterogeneity in the criminal careers of JSO suggesting several criminal career outcomes in adulthood. Put differently, the vast majority of JSO do not become ASO while adult sex offending does not require juvenile sex offending. Against the backdrop of this principle, the study found a small group of JSO recidivist at-risk of persisting into adulthood and a group of chronic juvenile offenders who are at-risk of escalating their offending to sex crimes in adulthood.ConclusionsFor the most part, JSO and ASO are two distinct phenomenon. The vast majority of JSO desist from sex offending while the vast majority of ASO started sexually offending in adulthood. As the frequency of general nonsexual offending increases during adolescence, so is the risk of becoming ASO. This group of youth warrants closer scrutiny for prevention programs.     

An examination of the role of neuropsychological deficits in mentally disordered sex offenders

Abstract

The present study examines the neuropsychological model of sexual offending proposed by Flor-Henry (1987) in relation to a group of mentally disordered sex offenders and a control group of mentally disordered non-sex offenders. The model predicts that the sex offender group would show specific left fronto-temporal dysfunction as compared with the control group. The results, while in the predicted direction, failed to reach statistical significance. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed.     

Social networks of sexual offenders

Abstract

Despite the extensive research attention directed toward criminal peer groups, there has been little attention to the peer groups of sexual offenders. Sexual offenders are often considered to be loners who offend in isolation, but cases of sex crimes involving peer support are not difficult to find, e.g., child sex rings, gang rapes. To examine the role of peers in sexual offending, sexual offenders and nonsexual offenders were asked whether they knew other people who have committed sexual crimes. In comparison to the nonoffender community comparison group, the sexual offenders reported considerably more association and identification with sexual offenders. The associations also tended to be offence specific, such that child molesters knew other child molesters and rapists knew other rapists. These findings have important implications for the assessment and treatment of sexual offenders.     

Can circles of support and accountability (CoSA) significantly reduce sexual recidivism? Results from a randomized controlled trial in Minnesota

Objectives

This study evaluates the effectiveness of Minnesota Circles of Support and Accountability (MnCOSA), a sex offender reentry program implemented by the Minnesota Department of Corrections in 2008.

Methods

Using a randomized controlled trial, this study compares recidivism and cost–benefit outcomes among sex offenders in the MnCOSA (N?=?50) and control groups (N?=?50).

Results

The results suggest MnCOSA significantly reduced sexual recidivism, lowering the risk of rearrest for a new sex offense by 88%. In addition, MnCOSA significantly decreased all four measures of general recidivism, with reductions ranging in size from 49 to 57%. As a result of the reduction in recidivism, findings from the cost–benefit analysis reveal the program has generated an estimated $2 million in costs avoided to the state, resulting in a benefit of $40,923 per participant. For every dollar spent on MnCOSA, the program has yielded an estimated benefit of $3.73.

Conclusions

Although difficult to implement, the CoSA model is a cost-effective intervention for sex offenders that could also be applied to other correctional populations with a high risk of violent recidivism.

     

Risk assessment with intimate partner sex offenders

Abstract

Risk assessment with any offender presents a number of challenges. However, risk assessment with offenders who have committed offences against their partners presents practitioners with a number of additional challenges. Intimate Partner (IP) sex offenders are reported to be responsible for the majority of adult serious sexual offences in England and Wales. However, despite calls for a unified approach to sex offender theory there has been little integration between this and the IP and family sexual violence literature. This paper summarizes the relevant literature on prevalence and cross over of sexual abuse by IP offenders, patterns of abuse, generality of offending, psychopathology and risk concerns (including risk of intimate partner homicide). Based on this, recommendations are made for best practice with IP sex offenders.     

The Successful Onset of Sex Offending: Determining the Correlates of Actual and Official Onset of Sex Offending

PurposeThe current study investigates the covariates of age of onset (actual and official) and cost avoidance of sex offending in first-time convicted sex offenders.MethodsThe current study utilized a large sample (n = 332) of federally sentenced first-time convicted adult male sex offenders. Actual onset was measured using self-report, victim statements, and police investigation notes. Official onset was measured using age at first conviction. Cost avoidance was measured as the time gap between actual and official onset.ResultsFirst, while most offenders initiated their sexual criminal career in their early adult years (25–35 years) they were typically not arrested until middle adulthood. Second, the covariates for official onset are in line with cost avoidance, but not actual onset. Third, offenders best able to avoid costs were early starters with a conventional background (i.e., employed, absence of a conviction for a non-sex crime), targeting prepubescent children within the family context.ConclusionsWhile early actual onset offenders were more likely to target stranger victims, early official starters exhibited an unconventional background, prior criminal record, more extensive sexual criminal career, and targeted strangers. Thus, official, but not actual onset revealed a profile in line with prior research.     

The significance of offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism among sex offenders of various age groups

Based on a sample of 682 male sex offenders, this study investigated variables of the offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism in different age groups. The sex offenders were allocated into four age groups. For each group, those characteristics of offending behavior showing a significant bivariate correlation with sexual recidivism were extracted. Using logistic regression, we then analyzed their incremental validity above and beyond a previously developed Crime Scene Behavior Risk (CBR)-Score, which measures the risk of sexual recidivism without taking into account the offenders' age (Dahle, Biedermann, Gallasch-Nemitz, & Janka, 2010). Age-specific offending behavior variables with incremental validity were combined with the general CBR-Score into age-specific scores and examined for their predictive accuracy. We also analyzed the extent in which these age-specific scores showed incremental validity above and beyond the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999). For three of the four age groups, age-specific Crime Scene Behavior Risk-Scores could be determined which were incrementally valid above and beyond the Static-99. Predictive accuracy varied between AUC=.74 and AUC=.90 (r=.28 to r=.49) depending on age group. The results are discussed within context of recent findings on the latent dimensions of actuarial risk assessment variables.