海外中国公民安全与领事保护

近几年,海外中国公民面对的各种安全威胁骤然增加,导致人身、财产等多方面的重大损失,对我国领事保护工作提出了新的要求。为此,外交部加强了领事保护工作的应急、磋商、协调、预警等机制建设,为保护海外中国公民的利益做出了重要贡献。随着海外中国公民的急剧增加和安全形势的日趋复杂,我国领保机构还必须解决人员不足等问题,加强预警效果,以进一步提高保护海外中国公民利益的能力与成效。     

从利比亚事件透析中国领事保护机制建设

近年来,随着走出国门的中国公民和企业数量增加,凸显领事保护的重要性,相关机制建设取得了重要进展。中国领事保护机制建设的成效、存在的问题及如何完善值得探究。2011年2～3月的利比亚撤离事件为中国领事保护机制的具体运作提供了一次重要的检阅。此次事件显示出中国的领事保护预防机制仍然存在一些薄弱环节,但领事保护应急协调机制的优势得到了充分发挥,在一定程度上弥补了预防机制的不足。中央企业在撤离中发挥了十分重要的作用,为今后海外中资企业应对类似情况树立了典范。这对完善今后的中国领事保护机制建设有重要启示。     

中国涉非领事保护分析

近期,在非洲国家频频发生中国公民安全事件,涉非领事保护问题引起广泛关注。通过对中国外交部网站海外安全信息(2006年6月至2012年10月)统计和对在非中资公司进行问卷调查,在非中国公民遭遇的安全风险大致可分为政治风险、社会治安风险、因中国公民自身违法违规行为所带来的安全风险、流行性疾病蔓延、恐怖袭击、海盗袭击、意外事故、经济诈骗和自然灾害几种类型。针对非洲国家安全形势复杂的特点,中国驻非使领馆与在非中资企业积极配合,建立了多样化的预防机制和有效的应急反应机制,保护在非中国公民和中资企业的安全。在目前中国涉非领事保护中仍然存在一些值得思考的问题。     

印度东进东南亚:新进展、动因及影响

冷战结束后,印度提出"向东看"政策,拉开东进东南亚的序幕。2014年,印度进一步提出"东向行动",深化与东南亚国家的政治、经济和安全合作,取得显著进展。印度深化与东南亚国家合作是在美国、日本等国推进"印太战略"和东南亚国家开展大国平衡外交的背景下展开的,主要是为了对冲中国推进"一带一路"倡议在南亚和印度洋地区产生的影响。印度与东南亚合作对地区的潜在影响较大,印度有可能成为东南亚地区又一重要战略力量,东亚地区秩序也可能随着相关国家"印太战略"的推进面临严峻挑战。中国应积极扩大与印度在东南亚的合作,拓展双方的共同利益。     

东南亚恐怖主义新态势及其影响与中国的应对

近年来，随着国际恐怖主义形势的变化，尤其是“伊斯兰国”遭受重创后的演变及发展，东南亚地区恐怖主义发展呈现出一些新的发展态势，东南亚首现城市大规模恐怖袭击事件，地区恐怖势力的跨国整合联动及域内外恐怖势力的合流、共振与滋生新的恐怖活动，地区部分国家的国内冲突加剧给予国际恐怖势力更多介入空间，回流恐怖分子引发系列问题以及网络恐怖主义威胁的上升等。东南亚恐怖主义新态势给东南亚地区的安全稳定带来威胁，也给中国尤其是西南边境省份的安全、稳定与发展带来严重威胁。在此背景下，中国需关注东南亚地区的恐怖主义新态势，进一步增强与东南亚国家的政治互信，凝聚反恐合作共识，加快构建与东南亚国家的反恐合作专门机制，增强中国在东南亚地区国际反恐合作中的作用，提升边境省份参与东南亚地区反恐合作的能力，加强对中国在东南亚地区的人员及投资等海外利益的保护，有效遏制东南亚恐怖主义发展及阻断国际恐怖势力经东南亚向中国渗透。     

中国领事保护可持续发展探析

结合近年来的领事实践和统计数据来看,中国的领事保护面临着一些新的形势与任务.领事保护的对象重点转向临时出国公民,领事保护需求大幅增加;海外中国公民活动区域不断扩展,高风险国家与地区呈现.海外安全风险日益多元化和集聚化,领事保护预防、磋商和合作机制的重要性凸显;基于人权意识和主观认知等的影响,领事保护的期望值与需求不断提升.于是,在有限的领事资源与“无限”的领事保护需求之间形成了一种“小马拉大车”的张力.这就使得中国的领事保护面临着较为严重的可持续发展问题.因此,须注重领事保护中合理性与合法性的统一,加强领事保护可持续发展能力建设.     

2011年东南亚政治经济发展概述

总的来说,尽管由于国内外众多不利因素的影响,2011年东南亚地区各国的稳定与发展压力进一步加大,但总体上看,东南亚国家政治发展仍然保持了相对的稳定,经济形势整体向好,安全形势虽然严峻,但政府积极求变,化解危机的措施得当。与此同时,2011年,东南亚的区域合作稳步推进,取得了一定的成效。     

透过在俄中国公民安全现状看中国领事保护

近年来，中国公民在海外的安全开始受到越来越多的关注，外交部2008年发行了新版《中国领事保护和协助指南》，对公民进行领事保护的宣传教育。随着全球化和非传统安全威胁的增强，影响在俄中国公民安全的因素增多，中国的领事保护面临许多新的挑战。应通过领事保护预警，信息共享和危机管理平台等一系列体制和机制上的建设为赴海外国民打造一个较为安全的平台。     

东南亚地区安全形势的特点及走向

冷战的结束和印支与东盟对立关系的解体,使东南亚地区的安全形势发生了深刻的变化。近几年来,东南亚各国根据地区安全形势的此种变化,相继对其安全防务政策作了新的调整,由此使东南亚地区的安全形势出现了一些新的特点,并将对未来该地区安全形势的走向产生深远的影响。     

21世纪东南亚地区面临的主要安全问题及我应采取的对策

目前，东南亚是世界上相对稳定的地区之一，和平、稳定符合大多数国家根本利益，是这一地区的主流。但是，该地区还存在一些不安定因素，如领土、领海主权争端，国家内部矛盾，军备竞赛，金融危机以及大国关系的发展变化等。这些问题都将会对本地区的安全产生影响。一、当前东南亚安全形势的主要特点１．“大国平衡”关系是维护东南亚地区稳定的重要基础东南亚地区国家一直把大国势力的平衡作为本地区安全的思想基础。从目前来看，左右这一地区安全形势的美、中、日、俄四大国之间关系基本稳定，特别是被视为整个亚太地区政治、经济、安全形…     

Britain,France, and America's Year of Europe, 1973

Britain's entry into the European Community in 1973 coincided with an American initiative aimed at redefining relations between the United States and Western Europe. This confronted British diplomats with a serious dilemma. They wished to maintain close collaboration with Washington and, for the sake of European unity, to expand on their recently achieved reconciliation with France, a country whose Gaullist elite rejected any further institutionalization of transatlantic relations. French reluctance to engage in a constructive dialogue with the Americans resulted in a fractious debate over the drafting of two seemingly innocuous declarations, and this was exacerbated by the mixed response of the Europeans to the outbreak of the fourth Arab–Israeli war and the ensuing energy crisis. Finally, at the Washington energy conference of February 1974, the British chose to work with the Americans, rather than the French, in seeking to mitigate the economic impact of OPEC's oil policies.     

Britain, France, and America's Year of Europe, 1973

Britain's entry into the European Community in 1973 coincided with an American initiative aimed at redefining relations between the United States and Western Europe. This confronted British diplomats with a serious dilemma. They wished to maintain close collaboration with Washington and, for the sake of European unity, to expand on their recently achieved reconciliation with France, a country whose Gaullist elite rejected any further institutionalization of transatlantic relations. French reluctance to engage in a constructive dialogue with the Americans resulted in a fractious debate over the drafting of two seemingly innocuous declarations, and this was exacerbated by the mixed response of the Europeans to the outbreak of the fourth Arab-Israeli war and the ensuing energy crisis. Finally, at the Washington energy conference of February 1974, the British chose to work with the Americans, rather than the French, in seeking to mitigate the economic impact of OPEC's oil policies.     

The roles of,and relationships between,expatriates, volunteers,and local development workers

This article reports on exploratory research based on interviews with expatriate and local aid workers employed by local and international NGOs in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Thematic analysis of the interviews found that personnel were placed in groups based on their job category – consultant, volunteer, or permanent staff – regardless of experience. These categories logically reflect each worker's pay level, purpose, and role, but they may also have an implicit power meaning which reinforces group differences and inhibits inter-group relationships. Relationship building was reported to be the most important factor contributing to the success of capacity-development initiatives. Four sub-themes were identified: communication, friendship, reciprocal learning/teaching, and confidence.     

“印太战略”:以美印日澳的战略逻辑、利益与策略选择为分析视角

"印太战略"是美国均势+有限遏制+规制+话语诋毁的混合型战略。它意在前沿、中间地带与后方的三层构建不对称的对华遏制性力量,突破中美双边、单区域战略竞争的狭窄战略空间;在多地域与多维度孤立中国,拉拢更多国家在产业价值链、数字经济等层面与中国切割;制订基础建设投资透明化的新标准,嵌入有利于美国利益的规制;通过国际法、舆论等软性手段抹黑中国的"一带一路"与海权发展。虽然共同逻辑都是制衡中国崛起,但日澳印在策略上强调非对抗性。其中避免成为中国优先反制是日本重要的策略目标;印度在拉达克边界冲突后尚没有形成一个完全倒向美国的战略,因为这必定使其背上沉重的战略包袱,成为美国的附庸;澳大利亚作为地缘政治影响有限的中等国家,在美国反华行动中冲在最前列已使其利益严重受损。而"印太战略"与东盟所推动的包容性、合作安全理念也有着本质的区别,东盟要在"印太地区"发挥中心领导作用,定位"印太"为对话与合作区域。所以由于东盟的抵制、印日澳的消极政策,这个战略形成的攻势将很难保持可持续性,其长期前景并不看好。     

Satisfaction,Alternatives, Investments,and the Microfoundations of Audience Cost Models

In this paper, we suggest that the Investment Model of Commitment, developed in social psychology, offers a solution to an important microfoundational issue in audience cost theory. Audience cost models are useful for thinking about the foreign policy behaviors of democratic and nondemocratic states. However, they often assume that citizens reliably penalize leaders who break their foreign policy promises even though the empirical record suggests this is not always the case. We argue that public commitment to foreign policy assets and relationships is a precondition for the application of audience costs. Using the UN and NATO as case studies, we hypothesize that the commitments people develop to international organizations emerge as a function of (1) their satisfaction with the performance of the organization, (2) the investments in those organizations, and (3) an assessment of the alternatives to these associations. Correlational and experimental tests of the model confirm that the strongest individual-level commitments arise when people are highly satisfied with the performance of specific institutions, believe that much has been invested in support of them, and perceive that the alternatives to particular institutions are poor. Implications for the development of audience cost theory are discussed.     

Lashkar-i-Taiba: Roots,Logistics, Partnerships,and the Fallacy of Subservient Proxies

Please click here to view a statement of retraction concerning this article.     

The Intersection of Religion,Race, Class,and Ethnicity in Community Conflict

This brief essay explores some ways of defining what we need to know — but don't — about conflict within and between communities where there are strong identity differences based on religion, culture, gender, and race. Its particular focus is on the role that religion and religious leaders play in attempting to resolve identity-based conflict.