Just a Matter of Timing? Local Electoral Turnout in Germany in the Context of National and European Parliamentary Elections

This article looks at the impact of national and European elections on turnout in German local council elections. The focus is first on effects from the timing of local council elections in between two federal elections and second on turnout effects from the combination of local council elections and European parliamentary elections. Starting from considerations about the relationships between high- and low-stimulus elections the article analyses data from 111 German local council elections held between 1951 and 2008. The analyses show first that upcoming national elections do mobilise voters to cast their ballots in regions where local council turnout traditionally is low. Second, combining European and local elections tends to reinforce turnout as well.     

The Participation Paradox of Indigenous Autonomy in Mexico

As indigenous movements around the world seek to strengthen their collective voice in their respective political systems, efforts continue to design political institutions that offer both sufficient local autonomy and incentives to participate in the broader political system. The state of Oaxaca, Mexico, offers a test case of one such effort at indigenous‐based institutional design. This article argues that such reforms often fail to confront the tension between local autonomy and citizen engagement in politics outside the borders of the community. Testing this theory through a comparative analysis of voter turnout rates in municipalities across the state of Oaxaca and the neighboring state of Guerrero, this study finds that the adoption of indigenous institutions at the local level is associated with significantly lower voter turnout rates for national elections.     

Exploring Variations in Turnout: Constituencies and Wards in the Scottish Parliament Elections of 1999 and 2003

Elections for the Scottish Parliament and for all Scottish local authorities were held on the same day in 1999 and 2003, allowing a more detailed exploration of turnout variations than has been possible before. On both occasions, turnout in the two sets of elections was almost identical so that reported ward turnout at local level also indicates ward turnout in the parliament elections. Parliamentary turnout is analysed at both constituency and ward levels. The latter gives us greater confidence in the constituency results and also suggests some relationships which are not apparent at constituency level. The strongest determinant of turnout is consistently found to be the proportion of adults with a degree; religious affiliation, here analysed for the first time at the aggregate level, is also strongly related to turnout.     

Tlatelolco's Persistent Legacy: A Comparative Analysis of Three Mexican Novels

This article analyses how three Mexican novels, published between 1971 and 1999, respond to the effects of political violence on national identity. It focuses particularly on fictional representations of state-sponsored, politically motivated murder and on how survivors negotiate a social space forever changed by unsolved crimes. The article concludes that an important consequence of political violence is that it undermines the validity of systems of representation that once seemed capable of portraying the national community. Each of the three novels interpreted here adopts a different stance regarding literary language's relationship to its ever-changing sociopolitical contexts.     

The Impact of Postal Voting on Participation: Evidence for Switzerland

Many countries are forging ahead with convenient balloting methods, in particular electronic and postal voting, in order to re‐engage voters. In this paper, we test whether the cost reductions through postal voting increase turnout. The empirical analysis is based on a newly collected data set on the introduction of postal voting in Swiss cantons. We take advantage of the unique fact that voting by mail was introduced at different times across cantons. This allows identifying the impact of postal voting on turnout, independent of time, issue and canton‐specific effects. The estimated average effect on turnout is roughly 4.1 percentage points for an average turnout of 43 percent between 1970 and 2005.     

Local aid workers in the digital humanitarian project: between “second class citizens” and “entrepreneurial survivors”

This paper examines the experiences of Filipino workers recruited for technology and communications work by international aid agencies involved in the Typhoon Haiyan response. Filipino workers, many of whom were personally coping with the social and economic impact of this disaster, were hired on short-term contracts to test and implement various digital humanitarian innovations such as feedback and hazard mapping technological platforms. These workers were doubly marginalized: first, as tech workers whose work was viewed by aid officers on the ground as less substantial than that of food or shelter programs; and second, as local voices often drowned out by national and international colleagues. Moving beyond the usual figure of the cosmopolitan and adventure-seeking Western humanitarian acting on distant suffering, this paper draws attention to local aid workers’ aspirations for personal and professional mobility as they seize novel opportunities opened up by the digital humanitarian agenda. It outlines how the digital humanitarian project’s ambition to facilitate the inclusion of disaster-affected communities is fundamentally undermined by labor arrangements that doubly marginalize local aid workers.     

Contrasting First- and Second-Order Electoral Behaviour: Determinants of Individual Party Choice in European and German Federal Elections

In contrast to national elections, both parties and voters are assumed to think that ‘less is at stake’ in European elections: Campaigns are less intense, turnout is lower, and citizens are more inclined to ‘vote with their hearts’. The latter should be reflected in differing rationales of voting – party choice should not be based on identical determinants in national and European elections. However, this hypothesis has not been sufficiently tested and most of the research is based on the analysis of aggregated data while causal explanations are located on the micro level. This paper compares vote functions of individuals in regard to the 2009 European Parliament election as well as the 2009 German Federal election. Using data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), comparison of explanatory models shows that party choice on both levels is neither fundamentally different nor does it fit into the pattern of second-order electoral behaviour.     

Nationalism and patriotism as predictors of immigration attitudes in Switzerland: A municipality‐level analysis

Abstract: Using Swiss data from the 2003 International Social Survey Programme (N = 902), this multilevel study combined individual and municipality levels of analysis in the explanation of nationalism, patriotism and exclusionary immigration attitudes. On the individual level, the results show that in line with previous research nationalism (uncritical and blind attachment to the nation) increased exclusionary immigration attitudes, while patriotism (pride in national democratic institutions) was related to greater tolerance towards immigration. On the municipality level, urbanization, socioeconomic status and immigrant proportion (and their interaction effects) were found to affect nationalism, patriotism and immigration attitudes. Nationalist and patriotic forms of national attachment were stronger in German‐speaking municipalities than in the French‐speaking municipalities. Path analyses further revealed that living in a Swiss‐German municipality indirectly led to more negative immigration attitudes through an increase in nationalism. The research is discussed in light of social psychological and political science literature on political attitudes.     

Creating and contesting meanings of place and community in the Ylay Talaa Valley of Kyrgyzstan

Formal schooling was virtually non-existent before the Soviet power in nomadic Kyrgyzstan, as communal life and learning was organized informally at the household and clan level. During the Soviet period, however, educational success became an avenue to a new form of upward social and geographical mobility, and the school provided new and prestigious positions for local teachers and administrators. This paper explores how the externally imposed Soviet collectivization policies reshaped the understandings and meanings of place and community during the twentieth century, a reshaping that centrally involved redefining education and the importance of ‘the school’. In the post-Soviet period, the utility of secondary and higher education in local and national labour markets has diminished, as has the power and prestige of educators. Yet the appeal of education lingers on. The authors seek to document these claims using oral histories, ethnographic interviews and participant observations in the Ylay Talaa Valley of the Kyrgyz Republic.     

Does electoral fraud spread? The expansion of electoral manipulation in Russia

In this paper, we argue that the occurrence of electoral manipulation in Russia has been driven, in part, by diffusion across neighboring raions through emulation, incentives, and networks. Presumably, in Putin’s Russia all local authorities have some incentives to deliver a high number of votes to United Russia, the “party of power”. However, the perceived pressure to deliver ever higher levels of support for Putin’s party arguably increases considerably if one’s raion is located in a region marked by extraordinarily high turnout and high vote share for United Russia. Conversely, the absence of perceived competition to curry executive favor through delivering votes and networks of uncorrupted local authorities, as well as local opposition organizations working to combat electoral fraud, may help explain the absence of fraud among raions located in regions marked by clean elections. Our quantitative analyses suggest that a “neighborhood effect” – the existence of manipulated raions within a region – strongly influences the likelihood that raions are manipulated. Moreover, although results are more mixed, spatial autocorrelation analysis suggests that turnout levels in raions are influenced by the turnout in proximate raions.     

An analysis of responses to climate change by local government in South Africa: The case of Capricorn District Municipality

Abstract

Climate change poses challenges to the socio-economic life globally, though in varying degrees. Southern Africa is one of the regions that has shown signs of changes in climate. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007), temperatures in the region have risen by 0.5 degrees Celsius over the past hundred years. In addition, climate change has resulted in fifteen incidents of drought in Southern Africa between 1988 and 1992. This has consequently had a negative impact on the socio economic life of the inhabitants of the region. While climate change is an issue that requires attention from all spheres of government, it is posited in this article that the local sphere of government needs to be the focal point for redress as it is the sphere closest to the people. Mutanga, Pophiwa and Simelane (2013: 165) note that insufficient human and financial resources, inability to adapt technologically and politically driven climate change related programmes are some of the challenges faced by municipalities in tackling climate change. Capricorn District in Limpopo Province, South Africa has agriculture as one of its critical economic activities; thus climate change is a serious concern in the area. The article seeks to investigate how local government is responding to the climate change phenomenon. The Capricorn District Municipality is used as a case study. It must be noted that, although this municipality is not a typical representation of how the other local authorities in the country are responding to climate change, it however sheds significant light on how this phenomenon is viewed at this sphere of government. The guiding questions are: to what extent is climate change viewed as a challenge by local authorities? Secondly, what measures are local authorities taking to address both the causes and effects of climate change? It is postulated that local government in South Africa is not effectively proactive and innovative in dealing with climate change. There is a need for policies and mechanisms in municipalities that address challenges that are posed by climate change. This is only possible if both elected and appointed officials treat the issue as a priority. Interviews were conducted with key informants and official documents were consulted in order to gather data that would either support or refute the suggested hypothesis.     

Multinational Investment and the Mobility Transition in Mexico and Ireland

Mexico and Ireland, traditionally countries of emigration, experienced pronounced multinationalization of their economies during the 1990s. In Ireland net emigration declined, but in Mexico it remained quite high, suggesting that Ireland advanced in the mobility transition while Mexico did not. Several reasons are offered to explain this, reflecting Mexico's relationships with the United States, multinational corporations, and local income and social conditions in Mexican regions. In Ireland and its relationship with the United Kingdom, by contrast, these factors generally took the reverse direction. This article uses the comparison to examine the relationship between declining emigration and multinational investment and the question of whether Mexico may be expected eventually to reverse its present trends.     

Losing the connection: party-voter linkages in Pakistan

How do political parties in Pakistan aggregate votes and connect to voters, especially in rural areas? Most explanations for party-voter linkages in rural Pakistan can be grouped into four broad categories: (a) political parties are made up of powerful landlords who use economic power to collect votes from dependent voters; (b) parties are conglomerations of clientelist networks; (c) parties are large aggregations of kinship networks; and (d) parties function by building links with specific types of constituencies across large parts of the country, and voters forge links with political parties based on ideology and party identification. These are, at best, only partial explanations. How is it that they can all co-exist? The answer lies in the level of analysis employed. I argue that when viewed in aggregated form at a macro-level of analysis, such as that of national politics, these varied explanations of party-voter linkages appear to be distinct and sometimes mutually exclusive. However, when disaggregated and examined at a micro-level of analysis, that of village-level politics, it becomes obvious how it is possible for all of these linkages to not only co-exist but often even work together. I adopt this micro-level of analysis through a longitudinal study of one village in Pakistan's most populous and politically most important province, Punjab. Using the case study of Sahiwal, I argue that the reason for the varied explanations is that the link between political parties and their voters is rarely direct. Instead, it is mediated by different types of local actors. As the national political arena changes, different actors gain precedence, leading to multiple explanations of what is really going on in rural Pakistan between political parties and their voters.     

俄罗斯的发展道路

发展道路从本质上讲是一种价值取向,概括了俄罗斯社会发展的本质和目的,体现了传统与现代、民主化与国情的深刻辩证关系,并要求建立可以确保实现俄罗斯发展理念的机制。俄罗斯发展道路的调整与完善,是第六届国家杜马选举和总统大选的主要议程。当前,俄罗斯进入了全面发展的新阶段。加强政治竞争性是新阶段的新特点,其实质是俄罗斯新权威主义政体的改革问题。俄罗斯发展道路的调整面临挑战,主要包括国家资本主义模式的前景、国家与市场关系的协调、"统一俄罗斯"党的政党现代化、行政管理模式的改变、民意政治的挑战、社会政策的实施,以及国际战略的调整等一系列问题。俄罗斯究竟具有怎样的国家特性,如何看待俄罗斯的民主,如何看待发展道路的间断性,如何在俄国历史中理解历史俄国,这些都是研究俄罗斯发展道路的基础性问题。俄罗斯的国家身份认定从历史上就与帝国意识紧紧捆绑。这种自我意识在本质上缺乏对他者文化的尊重。这是当今俄罗斯如何融入世界的关键问题。精英阶层关于俄罗斯是"欧洲太平洋国家"的身份认定、新民族主义的思想倾向与"欧亚联盟"战略互为影响,是俄罗斯发展前景中值得关注的趋势。     

The Explosive Combination of Inefficient Local Bureaucracies and Mining Production: Evidence from Localized Societal Protests in Peru

Although numerous scholars have analyzed the effects of natural resource extraction at the national level, few have explored it systematically at the local level. Focusing on Peru, where both mining production and local social protests have greatly increased in recent years and where a new tax has required mining companies to transfer revenue to subnational governments, this study explores the resource curse at the local level. In particular, why do protests arise mostly in the areas of natural resource extraction? Employing subnational data for Peru for the period 2004–9 and LAPOP survey data from 2010, the research confirms previous findings that social conflict is provoked by both the negative externalities of mining and the revenues from the new tax. The article further demonstrates that local bureaucratic capacity is a significant independent variable. Greater subnational bureaucratic capacity can ameliorate the pernicious societal effects of a local resource curse.     

Natural Disasters and Political Participation: Evidence from the 2002 and 2013 Floods in Germany

How do natural disasters affect electoral participation? The existing social science literature offers contradictory predictions. A considerable body of research in sociology and psychology suggests that traumatic events can inspire pro-social behaviour, which might increase turnout. Yet, political science has long held that even minor changes to participation costs of low benefit activities can lead to considerable drops in civic engagement. Consequently, natural disasters should reduce electoral participation. We show how these distinct views can be jointly analysed within the Riker–Ordeshook model of voting. This paper then reports results on the impact of the 2002 and 2013 floods in Germany on turnout in federal and state elections in Saxony and Bavaria, conducted few weeks after the floods. Analysing community level turnout data, and drawing on a difference-in-differences framework, we find that flood exposure has a consistent negative effect on turnout. This indicates that the increase in the costs of voting outweighed any increase in political engagement in our case and stands in contrast to findings from developing contexts, where flood management was convincingly linked to electoral participation.     

A Tale of Three Cities: Electoral Accountability in Indonesian Local Politics

In Indonesia, local government is endowed with important policy prerogatives and local politics is key to advance social welfare. The literature on Indonesian local politics has convincingly exposed serious limitations in local democratic practices, and it has questioned the ability of local democracy to promote genuine political change. This work, however, predominantly focuses on elite politics and specific forms of accountability based on patronage and clientelism. In this paper, we study democratic accountability in Indonesia from a different perspective. Drawing from the comparative literature on voting behavior, we hypothesize that Indonesian voters evaluate local politicians for their performance, and that they vote to reward or punish them for what they do in office. The analysis of three original surveys conducted in the cities of Medan, Samarinda and Surabaya offers partial support for this argument. While there is a positive relationship between evaluations of local government performance and support for incumbents, the strength of this link varies substantially across individuals and cities. The results shed new light on voter-politician linkages in Indonesia, suggesting that forms of accountability different from clientelism may emerge in this large and diverse country.     

Explaining municipal governance in Kosovo: local agency,credibility and party patronage

ABSTRACT

What can explain the varied effectiveness of internationally led attempts at statebuilding? This article seeks to answer this question by comparing the contrasting trajectories of governance in two municipalities in Kosovo: Hani i Elezit/Elez Han and Kamenica. In Hani i Elezit, evidence suggests that effective and accountable governance is embedded. However, in Kamenica informal and clientelist practices persist and residents are less satisfied with the municipality’s performance. As the nature and extent of internationally led statebuilding has been similar in both municipalities, explaining variation requires an analytical shift to how local leadership interacts with, receives and ultimately shapes statebuilding processes. The data are based on fieldwork from 2012 to 2015. The article focuses on two critical dimensions of statebuilding: capacity building and social accountability. It argues that the impact of externally led statebuilding strategies depends on the orientation of the political leadership of the municipalities. The article identifies features of the political environment, namely credibility and the organization of political parties, which constrain the kind of public-oriented leadership necessary for effective and accountable governance.     

Playing the Vertical Power Game: The Impact of Local Authorities in Cantonal Parliaments on the Financing of Special Schools

This study analyses the effect of local authorities in the Swiss cantonal parliaments on the allocation of special school costs. The empirical findings show that a higher share of local authorities in the cantonal legislature leads to a higher share of special school costs borne by the cantonal authorities. The effect is stronger for mayors compared to all members of local governments. Hence, mayors have a strong connection with their home municipality and use the political power of the accumulation of mandates for shifting undesirable costs from the local up to the cantonal level. This specific finding does not depend on the overall national constitutional framework, as the introduction of the NFA (Neuer Finanzausgleich) – in the course of which the federal state fully withdrew from financing special schools ‐ has not changed the magnitude of this effect.