When are similar regimes more likely to form alliances? Institutions and ideologies in the post-communist world

Following the collapse of the old communist regimes, 28 post-communist countries chose from among three main foreign security arrangements: commonwealth of independent states (CIS)/collective security treaty organization (CSTO) membership, north atlantic treaty organization (NATO) membership, or neutrality. What explains these choices? We are most interested theoretically in the role played by regime type. The alliances literature typically uses a narrow institutional theory of the effects of regime type, which implies that more democratic regimes are more attractive alliance partners than more authoritarian regimes. Post-communist area specialists will be aware that this institutional theory fails to explain the apparent tendency of more authoritarian post-communist regimes to join the CIS/CSTO. We develop a broader ideological theory of how regime type affects alliances, in which political institutions are complemented by substantive ideological and policy goals. Applying the ideological approach to the post-communist world, we define and measure two main ideological regime types – liberal nationalist regimes and neo-communist authoritarian regimes. Multinomial logit regressions indicate that more democratic, liberal nationalist regimes are more likely to affiliate with NATO, whereas more authoritarian, neo-communist regimes are more likely to join the CIS/CSTO. Moreover, the desire of neo-communist authoritarianism regimes to affiliate with the CIS/CSTO is as strong or stronger than that of neo-liberal democracies to affiliate with NATO – largely because NATO is more reluctant than Russia to accept aspirants. We conclude that the ideological approach to regime type may offer significant explanatory value as a refinement of the institutional approach.     

Timing is everything: a quantitative study of presidentialist regime dynamics in Eurasia, 1992–2016

Why do some countries with presidentialist constitutions feature more political closure than others at a given time? A quantitative study of post-Soviet countries since independence finds that much of the observed variation in political closure reflects timing, or the particular point at which a country happens to be within a regime cycle, rather than structural or other factors usually cited to explain regime change. Specifically, how much time a president has had to coordinate rivalrous networks around his or her authority is at least as strong a predictor of the level of regime closure as are economic development, economic growth, resource rents, proximity to Europe, and key cultural factors, even when controlling for the level of closure in the preceding year. This pattern is not found among countries with divided-executive constitutions, indicating it is related to the constitution rather than a general phenomenon.     

L'émergence d'une discipline scientifique. La création de l'Association Suisse de Science Politique (1951‐1959)

This article presents the results of a historical research on the creation of the Swiss Political Science Association in 1959. A first attempt of creation had failed eight years before, despite a favourable international context and the important scientific work of Marcel Bridel. Although Bridel was supported by several leading figures of the early political science, his proposal was met by the hostility of his colleagues, who had a historical, philosophical or juristic background. On the other hand, a few years later Jacques Freymond managed to create the Association in an almost administrative way and without any scientific discussion. The contrast between these two attempts illustrates the ambivalence of the institutionalisation process of Swiss political science since 1959. The institutional logic was more important during the creation of the Association than the scientific dimension, but has nonetheless been a useful basis to promote further scientific efforts. This initial ambivalence has had durable effects on the discipline, which obtained academic legitimacy without clearly taking position neither on its basic object, nor on its specificities with respect to the other social sciences or even ordinary discourses on politics. This has led to a disciplinary identity that is contingent, uncertain and fragile, and which calls for an epistemological reconsideration of the intellectual autonomy of political science.     

The Causes of Disease Impact Denialism in Nicaragua's Response to COVID-19

The response of the Nicaraguan government to the COVID-19 emergency is an extreme case of disease denialism. Such denialism is a major threat to public health, so understanding the sources of this attitude is paramount. Three explanations are offered: (a) the autonomous logic of a polarised political conflict; (b) an explanation based on an economic rationale; and (c) the regime's mystical and religiously-inspired discourse. The denialist response of the government is inexplicable without referring to the characteristics of the political regime, its political discourse and its recent developmental trajectories since the massive 2018 protests and the ensuing political conflict.     

Régimen político y democracia: conflicto constitucional en el pluralismo incompleto

Two constitutional features frame Mexico’s arrival to democracy: the creation of credible electoral institutions and the preservation of rules corresponding to the authoritarian regime inherited from the decade of the ‘30s in the twentieth century. These two sets of rules clash with each other, a fact which explains the low levels of democratic governance and the low quality of legislation and public policies. The political debate over this contradiction seems to have reached the lowest point and several different alternatives have been formulated to break the deadlock; nevertheless, the necessary political agreements that may clearly define a political path have not been reached. The article describes these processes and lays out the alternatives in dispute as well as possible outcomes in the near future.     

Erdoğan’s presidential regime and strategic legalism: Turkish democracy in the twilight zone

ABSTRACT

President Erdo?an and the AKP government initiated a comprehensive restoration process immediately after the failed coup in mid-July 2016. In fact, the country has been experiencing a very comprehensive and violent regime transformation since this time. I assert that recent political developments paved the way for institutionalization of a ‘plebiscitary presidential regime’ that depends on a particular combination of supreme power of the leader, an extremely weak parliament, and elections of a plebiscitary character. In this context, the paper aims to shed light on the role of the new strategic legalism which allows rule of law to be replaced by a rule by law approach, the executive prerogative principle to be dominant, and the law to be used for demobilization, all playing a highly critical role in the suppression of democratic opposition.     

Political culture,state elites and regional security in West Africa

This article analyses the dominant patterns of political culture among West Africa's state elites in an attempt to understand what standards, beliefs and principles they cherish. We suggest that although there are significant differences across the region's states, the dominant political culture can be characterised as neopatrimonial, that is, systems based on personalised structures of authority where patron–client relationships operate behind a façade of ostensibly rational state bureaucracy. In order to explore these issues the article proceeds in four parts. After providing a definition of political culture and why it is an important topic of analysis, we examine the central characteristics of the political culture held by state elites in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region. The section ‘The Nigerian factor’ briefly discusses some of the malign effects that this culture has had upon governance and political economy issues in the regional giant, Nigeria. The final section explores whether the region's elites are living up to their own claims that they are embarking upon a serious attempt to engage in state reconstruction or are instead simply searching for alternative ways to sell their more traditional concern with regime protection. We conclude that, without a fundamental recasting of the political culture guiding the region's elites, a security culture that prioritises democracy and human security is unlikely to emerge within ECOWAS.     

Israel: ethnocracy or multicracy?

Much of the recent academic literature that assesses democracy in Israel labels it either as incomplete or flawed, yet such literature employs minimal systematic analysis of how the state is actually governed. Since the 1990s, there has been a tendency to describe the Israeli political regime as an ethnocracy. This article argues that the term ‘ethnocracy’, when applied to Israel, has certain weaknesses and instead proposes the concept of ‘multicracy’ (multiformocracy) as a more appropriate term by which to describe Israel's political organization. It will demonstrate that existing Israeli democratic institutions do not control the state's policymaking in full and that several politically important processes are controlled or at least influenced by various other politically active forces. Whilst these forces can influence, stimulate, inhibit, and otherwise change governmental decisions and actions, they can be labeled as kratiae. While the capacity of Israel's democracy to govern is weak, these other kratiae can intervene in policymaking and the state's regime acts as democracy-dominated multicracy.     

新加坡:权威主义,还是精英民主?

在新加坡的政党制度类型上,有些学者同意亨廷顿的观点,认为新加坡实行一党制,因此是权威主义国家.笔者不同意这种观点.本文从新加坡的政党制度是一党独大制入手进行研究,认为新加坡是有限民主国家,又由于新加坡在治国实践上奉行精英主义,因此认为它是精英民主国家.