试论外国院外集团活动及其对美国对外政策的影响

美国作为全球唯一的超级大国 ,其对外政策关系到世界各国和国外利益集团的切身利益。各种代表国家和集团利益的外国院外集团为维护各自国家、民族和集团的利益 ,通过委托美国游说公司和具有特殊背景的人作为代理 ,在美国设立官方、民间机构 ,争取美国内具有共同利益的特殊集团的支持等方式进行院外活动 ,影响美国对外政策。因此 ,外国院外集团成为影响美国对外政策的重要因素 ,对美国对外政策的调整变化起着至关重要的作用     

Democratic Tradition and the Failed Presidency of Lucio Gutierrez in Ecuador

In April 2005, Lucio Gutiérrez was removed from office in the context of a fast‐growing economy. With no economic hardship to fuel social outrage, the failure of Gutiérrez illustrates how political and institutional factors can be the most important forces determining presidential survival. In this article, we qualitatively analyse the path toward confrontation between Gutiérrez and the congressional opposition which led to his political demise. We find that Ecuador's weak democratic tradition working through more proximate causes – radicalism, normative preference for democratic institutions and a negative institutional equilibrium – coupled with other institutional and political variables accelerated Lucio Gutiérrez's fall from power.     

China,US and the North Korean issue

This article explores the strategic interests of China and the US in the North Korean issue. It examines their different perceptions of North Korea. For China, North Korea is needed as a friendly buffer state as well as a political ally. As the lone superpower and lynchpin of international security, the US wants to stop unpredictable North Korea from further developing its nuclear capabilities. The article then explores the shared goal of both great powers in promoting stability on the Korean peninsula and in preventing nuclear proliferation. It is argued that the interplay of Sino–US security interests has a huge impact on the evolution of the North Korean issue.     

Culture,Closeness, or Commerce? Policy Diffusion and Social Spending Dynamics

In a globalized world where trans‐ and supranational networks, communication and the exchange of information gain in importance, national political decision making processes do not occur independently from each other. Policy diffusion is assumed to become more and more relevant also for welfare state development. This paper explicitly focuses on the policy diffusion among 21 OECD countries in the period between 1980 and 2007 looking at social spending dynamics. The empirical findings of the spatial regressions clearly indicate that spatial patterns in social spending dynamics are driven by policy diffusion processes. In fact, economic interdependencies define the pathways of diffusion. Trading partners move in the same direction regarding social policy behavior. Surprisingly, cultural and geographical proximity are less relevant for the diffusion processes, at least in terms of social spending dynamics.     

In the Aftermath of the Storm: US Foreign Policy in the Wake of 9/11 and its Implications for the Asia-Pacific region

In the following article, Kurt M. Campbell, senior vice-president and director of the International Security Program (ISP) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, DC., and Yuki Tatsumi, ISP research associate at CSIS, explore the changes that have taken place in US foreign policy since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 and how such changes might be reflected on its policy toward the Asia-Pacific region. They point out that the US will shift its focus to security at home and war on terrorism abroad. In the short-term, US focus will deviate from Northeast Asia to Southeast, Central and South Asia, but as the region will continue to be strategically important, the US will remain engaged in the region. It is up to the countries in the Asia-Pacific to ensure that the US engagement in their region is not dominated by unilateralism and excessive preoccupation with the war against terrorism.     

Servants of Empire: An Imperial Memoir of a British Family

This article assesses three recently published books on various aspects of Afghanistan:-

- A Long Goodbye: The Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan by Artemy M. Kalinovsky, an assistant professor of history at the University of Amsterdam;

-The Wrong War: Grit, Strategy, and the Way Out of Afghanistan by Francis J. West, a US Marine combat veteran;

-Vulcan's Tale: How the Bush Administration Mismanaged the Reconstruction of Afghanistan. by Dov S. Zakheim, a US Government official;

The background and training of these authors largely shape their viewpoints. However a careful reading of their books can sharpen our understanding of how the Soviet and US wars resembled and differed from each other, particularly with respect to nation-building, decision making, use of technology, and conflict termination. For the Russians, the similarities outweigh the differences, but there are still Americans who want to prove that they can win a war that the Soviets lost. From their perspective, the differences between the wars outweigh the similarities. The international context is completely different, the US has spent fifty times more money than the Russians and has deployed far more most sophisticated technology. Equally important, the outcome of the end-game is, as yet, unknown. But to most Afghans, comparisons are pointless; the Soviets and Americans both equally deserve to be labelled imperialists.     

美国“印太”战略对南海问题的影响——以“印太”战略支点国家为重点

随着印度洋战略价值的上升,美国在"重返亚太"战略基础上推出了"印太"战略,其战略实质是美国在印太地区缔造战略支点,并将其塑造成美国霸权下的多极格局。印度、澳大利亚、日本作为美国在印太地区的战略支点国家,它们自身在南海地区具有重要的战略利益。在美国"印太"战略的引导下,战略支点国家将对南海问题产生深刻的影响,尤其是将加剧中国周边安全环境的复杂化。在中美战略博弈的背景下,考察美国"印太"战略特别是其支点国家对南海问题的影响,有助于我们把握美国"印太"战略的实质,也有益于我们全面地分析南海地区的安全形势,提出应对策略。     

对战后初期美国转变对日政策原因的再审视

战后美日关系的变动,始终是影响东亚地区稳定的重要因素。战后初期美国对日政策的重心经历了从改造到扶持的转变过程。这一转变有着复杂的历史背景和原因,经历了曲折的转变过程,转变的直接结果奠定了之后的美日关系,且至今仍对东亚地区国际政治格局的变化存在着重要影响。战后初期影响美国转变对日政策的诸因素,并非先前中外学者所分析的平行并重,而是有先有后,有主有次,诸因素形成一个逻辑因果链,最终导致"旧金山体制"形成。在美国转变对日政策过程中,意识形态分歧和美苏大国间国家利益的博弈互为表里,时而契合,时而背离,但最终依归是各自的国家利益。所有这些对于预判目前东亚地区国际政治格局的走向和趋势、对于确立处理该地区国际事务的基调和对策是有重要的现实借鉴意义的。     

Bringing the Revolution to the Countryside: Rural Health Programmes as State‐Building in Post‐1952 Bolivia

Bolivia's Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (Revolutionary Nationalist Movement, MNR) took power in April 1952 via a popular social revolution. After 1952, the party implemented state‐sponsored modernisation projects, including extending rural public health programmes. The MNR used health programmes to change rural practices, cultivate political loyalty, and expand the state's political power. Yet rural indigenous communities were hardly passive recipients of these programmes. These communities often requested government services, and they borrowed the MNR's own political rhetoric to position themselves as worthy of state attention. Public health programmes increased access to rural health care, but they also allowed state officials and rural communities to negotiate the MNR's authority.     

The rise of BASIC in UN climate change negotiations

This paper assesses the role of the BASIC countries — Brazil, South Africa, India, and China — in UN climate change negotiations. The paper explores the formation and evolution of the group, and focuses on how the four major developing countries of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa have coordinated their positions and acted jointly to achieve an agreed outcome with other players in the recent UN Climate Change Conferences in Copenhagen and Cancun, based on an analysis of their country profiles and negotiation positions on a wide range of climate issues. The paper argues that the emergence of the BASIC Group is a reflection of the ongoing power shift from EU–US agreement to BASIC–US compromise in UN climate negotiations since the early 1990s. The rise of BASIC also has its roots in recent global market dynamics and further reflects the power transformation in the economic dimension of the international system.     

Becoming a “Good Nixon Doctrine Country”: Political Relations between the United States and Singapore during the Nixon Presidency

The Nixon Doctrine, which devolved US troops from direct involvement in Asian conflicts but gave priority to military sales and economic assistance, was considered by some commentators to be an inefficacious foreign policy approach that did little to serve US interests in Asia during the Cold War. Using Singapore as a case study, this article demonstrates that Richard Nixon's foreign policy approach improved US‐Singapore relations significantly from 1970 onwards. After a period of flirtation with the Soviet Union during 1968–72, Singapore came to be labelled a “good Nixon Doctrine country” by the US government in 1973. Through the sale of US military equipment and economic assistance, Singapore and the US cultivated bilateral ties that endured after the withdrawal of American troops from Vietnam in 1973 and the fall of Saigon two years later.     

从国际新闻署到美国新闻署--美国对外宣传机构的演变

本文考察了二战后美国对外宣传执行机构从国务院组织框架下的国际新闻署到独立的美国新闻署的发展历程,并通过分析美国对外宣传执行机构在美国政府部门中的地位的变迁展示美国政府对外宣传的发展.     

美国国会议员访台现象研究(1997～2008)

台湾地区是美国国会议员访问最频繁的地区之一。本文分析了从1997年到2008年的美国国会议员访台记录分布及其决定因素,获得了如下主要发现:第一,美国国会议员访台频次变动受台湾岛内政治变动和美国国会选举周期影响,但以前者更为重要;第二,《与台湾关系法》赋予美国国会及其议员干预台湾问题的权力,是造成美国国会议员、特别是外交事务、军事、情报等委员会成员频繁访台的根本原因;第三,意识形态、选区利益、经贸关系等对美国国会议员访台也产生了一定的影响。     

“Blood Brothers”. Racial Identification and the Right to Rule: the Australian Response to the Spanish‐American War

Historians have paid scant attention to Australia's enthusiastic response to the Spanish‐American war of 1898. Yet these events help us to better understand the centrality of race to Australia's national identity. Even though the Australian colonies were bound by Britain's neutrality, from Sydney to Perth Australians cheered America's decision to declare war. Many gathered outside the US consulate to offer their services as soldiers and nurses. This enthusiasm for the US cause was underpinned by an identification with fellow Anglo‐Saxons and the assumption that Filipinos and Cubans were races not yet fit for self‐government. Australians were intent on establishing their status as equal members of the governing race.     

From Porto Rico to Puerto Rico: Citizenship,Race and the Politics of Worthiness

The English-language text of the 1898 Treaty of Paris, the accord conceding Puerto Rico to the United States, misspelled the island's name as Porto Rico. The treaty's ratification entrenched the error in US law and prompted a decades-long campaign to restore the territory's original name. More than a comedy of errors, this incident exposes conflicting interpretations of US citizenship and the worthiness of different sets of citizens. Puerto Ricans discovered that the statutory citizenship they acquired was attenuated by their perceived worthiness: a status limited by their membership of the so-called Spanish race.     

The Health of the Rurality: The Encuesta de Folklore and Popular Healing Practices in Tucumán, 1921

This article examines healing practices among the rural inhabitants of Tucumán in the opening quarter of the twentieth century through a reading of the 1921 National Folklore Survey. It argues that popular medical practices, referred to as curanderismos (popular healing), continued into the twentieth century not only as cultural practice of the popular classes but as necessity due to limited investments in public health in the rural regions on the part of the national and provincial government.     

Way Behind in Following the USA over China: The Lack of any Liberal Tradition in Australian Foreign Policy, 1970–72

The Liberal Party's failure to grant diplomatic recognition to the People's Republic of China in the early 1970s soon became a source of embarrassment, after President Richard Nixon announced US recognition in 1972. In pursuing the question of why the Gorton and McMahon governments were so wrong-footed, factors such as the role of the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) in domestic politics and the hierarchical bureaucracy in the Department of External Affairs are important. But one theme looms largest, and it is a theme dear to the hearts of Liberal foreign policy-makers, namely the dominant role of the American alliance. Nixon's administration excluded the Australian Government from its shifting thinking about China just as the Australians confirmed their dependence on a US lead before doing anything.     

论日内瓦会议后美国与柬埔寨关系的演变(1954-1960)

本文详细考察了1954-1960年间美国与东南亚小国柬埔寨之间的关系演变历程。独立后的柬埔寨,一度对美国怀有好感,希望通过获得美国的经济、军事援助来发展本国经济、维护国家的安全与独立。美国虽愿意对柬埔寨进行援助,但是其根本目的却是要将柬埔寨融入到美国在东南亚编织的反共体系中。随着时间的推移,双方在美援根本目标上的分歧与矛盾逐渐显露并激化。美国无法容忍柬埔寨独立、自主的中立路线,试图通过削减美援、甚至策划政变的方式改变柬埔寨的外交政策。然而,美国并未达到目标,相反使一度对美国怀有好感的柬埔寨走向自己的对立面。美柬关系的演变对研究这一时期美国与其他新兴独立的中小国家间的关系具有重要的参考和启发意义。     

美韩同盟再定义与韩国的战略选择:进程与争论

本文系统总结了自2002年底以来美韩同盟再定义的磋商过程,以及双方在驻韩美军基地调整、同盟内部军事安全角色分工、同盟的未来战略构想等三大焦点问题上所取得的实质性进展,认为通过区域扩展和内涵扩展的路径选择,美韩同盟再定义已基本实现利益平衡与威胁平衡的双重目标。通过对美韩全球性战略同盟关系的定位与确认,韩国也由此结束了数年来激烈的外交方向辩论,再度确立了中近期亲美的结盟外交路线,然而有关韩国对外战略的争论不会就此终结。