科索沃独立的根源、动因及困境

任何一件国际重大事件的发生,无论是国际冲突事件,还是重大的国际进展,都有着其深刻的国内根源和国际因素.作为一个重大国际事件,前南地区相继发生分裂以及科索沃的独立绝非偶然,必然有着其内部根源与国际因素的双向度的思考价值.科索沃最终走向独立是在其内部土壤积淀与新的国际环境的紧密互动中不断生成的.本文试图从帝国因素、内部动力因素、大国关系的互动三个方面寻找科索沃独立的根源与动因,并指出科索沃独立作为单边行动的困境.     

俄格冲突:地缘政治框架下的分析

2008年8月爆发的俄格冲突是相关各方地缘政治博弈背景下的产物,它反映了俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯与美国以及欧亚地区三个层次的地缘政治冲突的现实.冲突也相应地在三个层次上产生了反映地缘政治冲突的力量格局和平衡的现实结果.俄格冲突也在地缘政治层面对今后国际局势产生了重要影响,其中包括对当前美国主导的国际秩序的冲击,对北约未来发展的冲击以及对国际能源局势的冲击.     

试论20世纪50年代中期中泰关系中西双版纳傣族自治区问题的缘起

1953年中国云南省西双版纳傣族自治区的成立曾被泰国强指为中国蓄意对泰国进行侵略的证据,由此引发了20世纪50年代中期中泰关系中的西双版纳傣族自治区问题.实际上,这一问题只不过是美国、泰国统治集团和台湾当局出于各自的政治利益和政治需求共同制造的一个谣言.这一问题的产生,受到了体系与单元层面因素的双重影响,它既受制于两极国际体系,与20世纪50年代东亚冷战的国际格局基本吻合,也与中泰两国的国内政治等单元层面的因素息息相关,可以说是冷战国际政治和中泰两国国内政治相互结合的产物.傣—泰民族跨越国界的分布状况是这一问题产生的客观基础,而体系与单元层面上的各种政治利益和政治需求则是这一问题产生的深层动因.     

菲律宾与印尼军人政治参与的比较

印度尼西亚与菲律宾是有着相似历史和相同政体的东南亚国家,军人在政治生活中起着重要作用是两国政治的共同特点.但由于国家独立过程和两国文化等的差异,两国军人政治又呈现出不同的发展态势.本文主要分三个历史阶段对两国军人政治参与进行比较分析,并对军人干政的共性进行了总结.     

美国对台政策的模糊与清晰

本文建立了一个政治—安全以及宣示性政策—操作性政策两个维度的分析框架，希望可以借此更为细致地梳理分析美国对台政策。在特朗普和拜登政府时期，美国的对台政策在政治层面的宣示性政策、政治层面的操作性政策、安全层面的宣示性政策、安全层面的操作性政策四个方面都有明显的调整。相对而言，两届政府的操作性政策调整的程度要大于宣示性政策。仅就宣示性政策而言，特朗普政府在政治层面的宣示性政策的动作较多，而拜登政府(尤其是拜登总统本人)在安全层面的宣示性动作更明显。美国对台政策调整的最主要原因，一是其认为中国大陆对中国台湾地区使用武力的能力和意图都在上升，二是美国对台湾地区的战略思维正在悄然发生变化。美国对台政策的调整为推进祖国统一制造了障碍，但是决定两岸关系走向、实现祖国完全统一的最关键因素是国家的发展进步。     

新加坡和印度尼西亚语言政策的对比研究及其启示

作为国家制度政策的重要组成部分,语言政策是一个国家谋求生存发展的政治手段.目前关于语言政策的研究多为历史性的政策陈述, 而较少进行国别之间的语言政策对比分析.本文试图从同质性和异质性两个角度对比分析新加坡和印度尼西亚的语言政策,研究一个国家的语言政策对于国家利益的影响,旨在揭示语言政策除语言学层面的意义之外的社会学层面的意义,以及新加坡和印度尼西亚两个东盟国家的语言政策对于新世纪中国语言政策的启示.     

北约对南联盟动武的国际法思考

1999年3月23日,美国特使霍尔普鲁克与南联盟总统米洛舍维奇关于科索沃问题的谈判没有取得实质进展。北约秘书长索拉纳下达了对南联盟实施军事打击的命令。索拉纳宣称,此次军事行动是为了支持国际社会的“政治目标”,阻止南联盟武装力量在科索沃发     

科索沃危机与俄北关系述评

科索沃危机是冷战结束后俄罗斯和北约关系史上的第一次重大危机。本文首先考察了科索沃危机对俄北双边关系的冲击和考验,在此基础上揭示了这次危机对俄北双边关系未来发展以及欧洲安全建设的影响和涵义。科索沃危机打破了俄罗斯和北约寻求建立"平等的伙伴关系"以及"制度化合作关系"的神话,为日后俄北合作机制的调整和变革埋下了伏笔;这次危机也再次强化了美国和北约在欧洲安全新体系建设进程中的主导作用,而俄罗斯在这一进程中被边缘化的危险进一步加剧了。     

简论斯洛文尼亚的民族独立问题

1991年6月25日,斯洛文尼亚宣布独立,一时成为世界政治关注的热点。斯在独立前是东欧经济最发达地区之一。斯科索沃自治省曾与银川市结为友好城市。斯脱离南联邦是其历史上的民族问题在现实政治中演化的必然结果,涉及面广,关系复杂。总起来说,民族独立运动是贯串于斯历史与现实过程的一条主线,循此深入,可以大致拼接出对斯民族问题认识的一个完整层面。斯的民族运动按时序划分,可分为五个阶段:1848年以前的历史为第一阶段;1848年至1918年的历史为第二阶段;1918年至1980年的历史为第三阶段;1980年至1990年的历史为第四阶段;1991年独立至目前为第五阶段。     

科索沃冲突与地缘政治

科索沃冲突具有强烈的地缘政治背景。在冷战期间,南斯拉夫是东西方之间的缓冲国,东西方都竞相拉拢南斯拉夫,科索沃局势相对保持稳定。尽管早在七、八十年代,北约在模拟第三次世界大战的反核战争演习中,就已经把科索沃作为假设的冲突发源地;但在表面上,西方还是尊重南斯拉夫的领土完整的。冷战结束后,随着柏林墙的倒塌及北约的东扩,欧洲的政治地图发生了巨大的变化。波兰、匈牙利、捷克等中欧国家加入北约,使北约的东北部前沿推进到俄罗斯与白俄罗斯的边境,北约的东南边界则与罗马尼亚等巴尔干国     

俄罗斯修宪与普京长久国家

普京对1993年《俄罗斯联邦宪法》进行修改,俄罗斯将从叶利钦宪法过渡到普京宪法。1993年宪法是一部以超级总统制为特征的基本法,它保证了俄罗斯主权国家的建立和社会政治的稳定。但是这部宪法赋予总统的权力异常大,限制了其他权力机构和地方对决策的影响。修宪的目的是使权力机构更加平衡,运行更加有效。普京认为,修宪过程中必须遵守几个基本原则:俄罗斯只能是总统制共和国,不能搞议会制;俄罗斯不能出现双重权力,不能出现寡头政治;俄罗斯宪法高于国际法律和条约;重视劳动者、母婴、养老金领取者的社会保障。修宪能否实现俄罗斯政治进程从以保证社会政治稳定为主过渡到以发展为中心,是2024年以后俄国家领导人面临的主要任务。普京表示,如果人民有希望,宪法法院有裁决,不排除2024年继续竞选总统。     

进步还是倒退?——政治发展视野下的缅甸2010年选举

从政治发展角度讲,缅甸2010的选举更多地意味着一种倒退。该选举赋予了军人集团的政治垄断以正当性。这样的结果之所以会出现,全国民主联盟的错误选择是其中一个重要的原因。选举后的缅甸新政权,虽然依然会面临来自西方国家的强大压力,但来自亚洲一些国家的支持,则会给缅甸的新政权提供有力的支撑。展望未来,缅甸的政治发展之路将十分艰难。     

民主与政治稳定:印尼局势动荡与政权更迭的政治解读

印尼的局势动荡和政权更迭表明 ,在民主体制下 ,领导人个人的道德品行如何及对民主原则的认同与否、政党是否成熟、具体的体制设计与现实政治力量分布是否相互协调是影响一个国家政治稳定的重要因素。     

The Renovation of Old Institutions: State Governors and the Political Transition in Mexico

The process of political transition in Mexico has fostered several institutional transformations in the political system. Such changes do not modify the system's design, but they do reactivate some basic institutions and forgotten powers that affect the operation of the political system as a whole. The state governors have undergone one of the most relevant transformations: they have gained more autonomy and have forged a new relationship with the federal executive. This essay analyzes the different actions governors have taken depending on their partisan origin. While the PAN governors focus on administrative and financial issues, the PRI governors have developed the most important political challenges to the president's authority.     

Tensions between congress and the executive in nineteenth-century Argentina: federal intervention and separation of powers

SUMMARY

This article analyses the debates that took place in the Congress of Argentina between the enactment of the constitution in 1853 and the end of the century, regarding the powers of the executive and legislative branches for intervening in the provinces in case of internal conflict or external attack. It focuses on the controversies arising from different bills submitted to congress in order to enact a general intervention act to resolve, once and for all, the powers of each branch in that matter. Although those bills did not pass, a study of them shows the existing disagreements about the operation of the federal system and the separation of powers. Some of the differences were linked to the discussion of American constitutional doctrine in which Argentina had been engaged since the mid nineteenth century in order to solve the dilemmas of organizing its political institutions. This article claims that this analysis contributes to ongoing debates on the roots of political conflict in Argentina by showing the importance of institutional controversies, and argues that it is necessary to address the role of congress and of doctrinal dissent in order to revise the role that historiography has given to the disputes over power as an overall explanation for political confrontations.     

Analysen zur Entstehung der Massenparteien und zu ihrem Einfluß auf das Parlament: Ostrogorski,Michels, Weber

SUMMARY

The object of this article is the analysis of Ostrogorski's, Michels' and Weber's statements on the connections between parties and Parliament. These three authors are really known as the founders of the sociology of parties, but their consideration of the relations between parties and Parliament in the time of mass-society represents an interesting component of their inquiry. Firstly, their remarks are significant in the historical respect, because they take into account (although in different ways) the problematical function of mediation taken on by the parties in political life; secondly, they arouse interest from the political point of view, because they look for alternative solutions and emendations. Their suggestions concern both the internal organization of the party, how to obtain more flexibility in the framework and more democracy and discussion on the decision-making level, and the integration of the party-system in a general political system of balance of powers, which should include at the same time a more consistent development of direct and participative democracy.     

转型时期泰国政治力量的结构分析

在发展中国家由传统社会向民主化转型过程中,国家政治力量结构呈现出新旧交替、传统与现代的博弈局面.作为国家政治结构的主要力量,官僚阶层、军队与政党之间存在着一种动态的三角关系.在泰国的政治结构中,官僚阶层是基本的和不变的常量,军队始终发挥着重要的干预变量角色,而政党是一种集合性变量.本文通过分析泰国三大政治力量的结构及相互关系,推演出泰国现当代政治格局发展的基本规律.     

Poderes fácticos,problemas drásticos

The article reconstructs systematically a definition analytically dense of the factual powers. By focusing on the implications factual powers in Latin America, the article inquiries into the resistance of these powers to the State of law, evidencing their propensity to promote their own private interests and impose them on society at large. On its turn, the author elaborates a diagnosis of the cultural expansion of factual powers in Mexican society, demonstrating that their influence expresses and reinforces political deficiencies, legal voids and cultural paucity, identifying the ideological preponderance of private television.     

La nueva dinámica política de América Latina: temas para una agenda de investigación

Social transformations in Latin American have generated new phenomena which dominant political discourse, but also some studies of the political dynamics, are unable to express and even seek to conceal. To illustrate these developments the article analyses: 1) the emergence of new veto powers on the democratic system, quite different from the traditional one; 2) the celebration of the rise of “new middle classes”, a statistical conglomerate that refers to important social transformations but does not constitute a social category nor has a clear political expression; 3) the current debate on the regulation of the media, in which we argue that it expresses relevant socio-technological and political changes but is being held in a way that conceals undemocratic interests, both from governments and companies; 4) political parties and their difficulty to represent emerging social groups and generational differences; 5) civil society, which became fragmented and tanned by local political culture and should not be treated as an homogeneous and virtuous universe. We conclude that the consolidation of democracy requires from researchers and political actors to overcome the analytical and ideological paradigms that were, and still are, dominant in the region.     

Crown and parliament in Prussia 1848–1866∗

Summary

Max Weber and the Problem of Parliamentarism in Germany at the End of the First World War

At the end of the First World War Weber was concerned with the problem of the establishment of a new political system in Germany. For a short time he took part in the activities of the newly formed German Democratic Party, and he collaborated in the drawing up of the first constitutional proposal. His theoretical contribution is mainly to be found in his essay, ‘Deutschlands künftige Staatsform’.

First of all, Weber insisted on the importance of parliamentary institutions, because they promote the selection of qualified political leaders and they keep the bureaucracy under control. He also supported the theory of the separation of powers which ensures reciprocal controls on every side. He defended the right of enquiry and respect for minorities. He proposed a bicameral system, each chamber with different powers, and attached much importance to the role of the State President.

In the first constitutional project, Weber's views were taken very much into account, but their influence on the final drafting of the Weimar Constitution was much more limited.