Violence Against Civilians: A Disaggregated Analysis

Disaggregated approaches to conflict research have led to new insights into the patterns and processes of political violence in developing countries. This article uses the most comprehensive subnational political violence data (ACLED) to observe where and when violence against civilians occurs within civil wars. Several new conclusions are evident from an event-based analysis of civilian violence: retribution or collateral damage are poor explanations for attacks on the unarmed. Instead, civilians are targeted because they are accessible; rebel groups kill more civilians, often in an attempt to create new frontlines for conflict. However, governments are also responsible for high rates of civilian death, yet they often “contract” this violence out to militias. This analysis confirms that there are multiple violent groups within civil war spaces, and small opposition groups commit higher levels of violence against civilians in local spaces. The strength of a violent group compared to its competition shapes how much civilian violence it commits. The results suggest that theories that emphasize civilian support and retribution as a basis for violence against civilians have overlooked the importance of how multiple violent opposition groups compete within civil wars, and how civilians suffer as a result.     

世界粮食危机与中国粮食安全

世界粮食危机预示着高粮价时代的到来,各国开始重新审视自己的粮食安全。全球人口膨胀和消费需求不断增加打破了供需之间的平衡,而美国推行的生物燃料政策和美元霸权进一步加剧了这种不平衡。因此,美国要为世界粮食危机的加剧负主要责任,但美国同时也是世界粮食危机的最大受益者,国际粮价的高涨体现了美国粮食武器的威力。面对形势严重的世界粮食危机,中国应该保证自给自足,高度重视粮食安全,力保粮食主权,实现经济和社会的可持续发展。     

Forms of Civil War Violence and Their Consequences for Future Public Health

Previous research concerning the relationship between conflict and public health finds that countries emerging from war face greater challenges in ensuring the well-being of their populations in comparison with states that have enjoyed political stability. This study seeks to extend this insight by considering how different civil war conflict strategies influence post-conflict public health. Drawing a distinction between deaths attributable to battle and those fatalities resulting from genocide/politicide, we find that the magnitude of genocide/politicide proves the more effective and consistent predictor of future rates of disability and death in the aftermath of civil war. The implications of this research are twofold. First, it lends support to an emerging literature suggesting that important distinctions exist between the forms of violence occurring during civil war. Second, of particular interest to policymakers, it identifies post-civil war states that have experienced the highest rates of genocide/politicide as the countries most in need of assistance in the aftermath of conflict.     

吉林省粮食安全政策选择

2010年我国的粮食产量达到54 641万吨,增产2.9%。[1]尽管如此,我国的粮食安全问题仍然是十分重要的大问题,全球的粮食安全问题仍然很严重,粮价维稳已成为各国的头等大事,2010年全球玉米价格暴涨了52%,小麦上涨了49%,黄豆上涨了28%。[2]有些问题是自然灾害造成的,有些问题是人为造成的,这使全球经济陷入一种十分不稳定的状态。当今全球社会十分害怕粮食价格上涨,有些人把这些问题摆在与金融危机同一个位置上。     

Intraethnic Dominance and Control: Violence Against Co-Ethnics in the Early Sri Lankan Civil War

In some ethno-separatist wars, rebel groups direct a large share of violence against members of their own ethnic community. But why do rebels target the co-ethnics they claim to represent in the war against the government? Our aim in this paper is to provide the components for a conceptual framework that we assess using unique disaggregated casualty data on violence committed by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam against co-ethnic Tamils in territories claimed for the Tamil Eelam state in the early phase of the Sri Lankan conflict, 1985–88. We propose that there are two distinct processes of intraethnic violence: violence against co-ethnic civilians and violence against co-ethnic rivals. While the former aims at controlling the population to win the war against the government, the latter aims at establishing leadership dominance over the ethnic minority. We examine the role of ethnic homogeneity in shaping the use of violence directed against the two types of co-ethnic targets in the buildup phase of ethno-separatist war. We conclude that ethnic demographic structures matter for how the rebels treat co-ethnics in the early phase of war before they have established territorial control.     

浅析菲律宾的粮食安全问题

菲律宾作为世界上最大的粮食进口国,除了在20世纪70年代实现了短期的粮食自给甚至略有出口之外,粮食安全问题一直是菲律宾政府面临的突出问题。本文分析菲律宾出现粮食安全问题的原因及应对粮食安全问题所采取的措施,并预测菲律宾粮食生产的前景及其制约因素。     

世界“粮食危机”对印度粮食安全的影响

2007年的世界“粮食危机”引起了国际社会的广泛关注。印度作为中国的邻国及仅次于中国的世界第二人口大国,其粮食安全保障体系如今面临着巨大的挑战。一旦印度粮食危机爆发,不仅会对正在崛起的印度经济社会发展造成巨大影响,而且会波及周边国家乃至世界。因此,我们应当关注印度粮食安全,并寻找应对之策。     

Power, Borders, Security, Wealth: Lessons of Violence and Desire from September 11

America's "war on terror" and Al Qaeda's "jihad" reflect mirror strategies of imperial politics. Each camp transnationalizes violence and insecurity in the name of national or communal security. Neoliberal globalization underpins this militarization of daily life. Its desire industries motivate and legitimate elite arguments (whether from "infidels" or "terrorists") that society must sacrifice for its hypermasculine leaders. Such violence and desire draw on colonial identities of Self vs. Other, patriotism vs. treason, hunter vs. prey, and masculinity vs. femininity that are played out on the bodies of ordinary men and women. We conclude with suggestions of a human security to displace the elite privilege that currently besets world politics.     

Wheeled Warriors: Explaining Variations in the Use of Violence by Private Security Companies in Iraq

This article engages one of the most widely discussed but poorly understood aspects of the Iraq War: the use of violence by private security companies. It explains why, despite sharing several important characteristics—coming from the same general population of military and police veterans, working for the same client during the same time period, performing the same tasks under the same client-imposed rules of engagement, and facing the same kinds of threats in the same general operating environment—the personnel who worked for Blackwater, the chief protector of US State Department employees in Iraq, killed and seriously injured far more people than their counterparts in DynCorp. The article argues that Blackwater's personnel killed and seriously injured far more people in Iraq than their DynCorp counterparts because Blackwater maintained a relatively bellicose military culture that placed strong emphasis on norms encouraging its security teams to exercise personal initiative, proactive use of force, and an exclusive approach to security, which together motivated its personnel to use violence quite freely against anyone suspected of posing a threat. If the trends established during the Iraq and Afghan Wars continue, then private security companies will see extensive employment in future conflicts. These findings, consequently, have implications that extend beyond the Iraq War and the particular firms under study. Indeed, they indicate that governments and other future clients should analyze the military cultures of the firms vying for their business and use the results as a basis for deciding which firms to hire and, to a great extent, represent them in unstable conflict zones.     

Food Security in the Context of Global Climate Change

The issue of food security is a complex one,and,with the advancement of globalization,it is becoming ever more urgent.And as climate change rises to the top of the international agenda,the securitization of food issues is growing more complex.It has turned the spotlight on the issue of food security and introduces new challenges to every nation.Historically,China has been an agricultural country,and thus has always been concerned about food security,enacting various measures and policies over the years to protect its food supply.However,there are inherent uncertainties and many challenges in this area.To deal with the problem of food security caused by global climate change,China and other nations should rethink how they deal with food security,and establish a comprehensive food security strategy which engages with other strategies in economic development,agriculture and rural development,energy,water security and social development.     

气候变化与粮食安全问题研究综述

从粮食安全的角度关注气候变化始于20世纪80年代,具体可分为两个阶段：一是20世纪80年代至90年代初,主要是地区和国别研究,重点研究气候变化对某地区或国家农业生产的影响;二是20世纪90年代初至今,主要为系统性研究,研究重心转向全球气候变化对世界粮食安全的整体影响。气候变化和粮食安全两者相互影响,紧密关联。     

从农业补贴视角浅析拉美粮食安全与农业改革

全球粮价上涨既有短期因素也有长期因素.短期因素有,全球变暖引起的干旱、暴雨等恶劣天气导致粮食产量下降,油价高企使得大量粮食作物被用于生产生物燃料,美元疲软导致大量投机资金进入大宗商品期货市场从而提高了粮价,等等.从长期因素看,粮价飙升的深层次原因包括各国在农业投入和农业贸易政策方面所累积的问题.本文主要从农业补贴角度阐述发达国家对国际粮食市场的影响,并在研究拉美粮食贸易现状的基础上试图说明拉美国家构筑粮食安全战略的途径.拉美粮食部门所处的劣势是,国内支持不足导致农业生产率下降,发达国家凭借高额补贴向国际市场"倾销"农产品.为扭转上述趋势,拉美国家一方面要在农业补贴由价格补贴向收入支持转变过程中加大对农业的投资并为小农户构筑安全网,另一方面要在积极参与国际市场的前提下争取充足的政策空间和灵活性并在未来的多边谈判中采取集体行动以纠正全球农业生产与贸易之间的系统性不平衡.     

Security and Power through Interdependence: On the Morality of Globalisation

Rising wealth—the progress from a “state of nature”—is contingent upon an ever wider division of labour. The web of mutual dependence and co-operation thus created has since long transgressed state borders. But as of late this global net of interdependence has become tightly woven. Being thus dependent on others seems at odds with the prime aim of national security, which is to preserve identity and full freedom of action. However, this definition of national security is no longer functional in this era of globalisation. Broad and useful interaction with others enhances national security; while isolation undermines it. There is a moral aspect to this: “identity” demands the “significant other”; and a diversified and wider identity thus calls for a wide interface with many such “others”. Wide interaction is also contingent on the participants being seen as trustworthy. It thus depends on—and creates—a culture of mutual responsibility.     

Military Power and Food Security: A Cross-National Analysis of Less-Developed Countries, 1970–1990

Addressing the long-standing debate over the social impact of military power and recent discussions of military-induced famine, we conduct a panel analysis of aggregate food supply and child hunger rates in 75–79 less-developed countries (LDCs). Distinguishing between militarization , as the growth of military resources, and militarism , as the use of military force to handle political conflicts, we show that militarization is both beneficial and detrimental to food security, whereas militarism is consistently detrimental. Arms imports and associated increased military spending plus praetorianism and military repression reduce food security, whereas increased military participation and arms production boost food security. Increased food supply reduces child hunger and is largely confined to the more developed of the LDCs. These military power effects show net economic growth, which "trickles down" to improve food supply and reduce child hunger among the more developed LDCs, reflecting the growth of global economic inequality. Contrary to views that see militarization as a single unified process, use of armed force is not strongly rooted in either praetorianism or militarization.     

印度粮食安全政策及其对我国的启示

粮食安全是中国和印度等发展中农业大国所共同面临的难题。本文从分析印度粮食安全的现状入手,重点研究了印度为实现国家粮食安全而采取的三种政策手段:生产者价格支持政策、农业投入补贴政策和粮食分配政策。基于上述印度粮食政策的架构分析,总结出印度粮食安全所面临的问题和挑战。最后得出印度粮食政策对我国的启示。     

过去25年拉丁美洲的养老金和医疗改革

在过去的25年里,拉丁美洲最大的社会政策转型是养老金和医疗改革.养老金私有化(全部或部分)扩展到拉美12个国家,进而影响中东欧国家发生了相似的变革,而在部分西欧国家和美国则成为改革争论的参照物.医疗改革虽然在拉美所有国家都已实施,但并没有在海外产生较大影响.本文评论的这7本书对养老金和医疗改革进行了分析,其中两本还研究了失业和教育问题.     

评析黑非洲粮食安全困境

2011年以来,黑非洲面临最突出的问题之一是严重的旱灾和饥荒,特别是东北非的“非洲之角”遭遇60年不遇的特大旱灾。联合国粮农组织总干事迪乌夫将“非洲之角”饥荒形势称为“世界面临的最严重人类灾难之一”。黑非洲粮食安全问题由来已久,从20世纪80年代开始,全世界只有非洲是人均粮食产量不断下降、赤贫人口持续上升的地区。非洲国家长期受粮食危机困扰,是由内部和外部多方面因素造成的。黑非洲理应能解决人民的吃饭问题,缓解黑非洲粮食安全问题主要依靠黑非洲各国坚持不懈的努力,同时,国际社会需要对黑非洲粮食安全问题给予更多关注和援助。     

论未来国际体系变更的几种可能形态及其理论

中长期的潜在变局包括:通过技术的垄断和经济的扩张、全球的军事部署等方式实现对国际权力结构的调整;中美冲突导致亚太地区冷和平格局的形成;东亚次大国的局部冲突引发大国力量关系的改变和阶段性的冷战;欧洲内部与美欧出现严重分裂,西方联盟体系瓦解;集团性的多极化变局呈现.未来体系到底朝哪个方向发展,还有待于我们进一步的观察.