The Great Powers and Regional Conflicts: Eastern Europe and the Balkans from the Post–Napoleonic Era to the Post–Cold War Era

The objective of this article is to provide an analytical framework for addressing the sources of great power regional involvement and its effects on regional conflicts. The thesis of the article is that variations in the degree of intensity of conflicts and the likelihood of successful conflict resolution in different regions are affected by the character of great power involvement in these regions. Our argument is that although great power involvement or noninvolvement cannot cause or terminate regional conflicts, it can either intensify existing local conflicts or mitigate them. We will propose causal linkages between balances of great power capabilities and interests, types of great power involvement in regional conflicts, and patterns of regional conflicts. The study will distinguish among four types of great power involvement in regional conflicts: competition, cooperation, dominance, and disengagement. The empirical section will examine the application of these propositions in seven historical illustrations, representing the four patterns of great power involvement in regional conflicts. All the illustrations will deal with one conflict-ridden region-Eastern Europe and the Balkans, in successive historical periods from the post-Napoleonic era to the post-Cold War era. Because of the variety of patterns of great power involvement in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, this region is uniquely suited to examine the propositions derived from the theoretical framework. Drawing on both the theoretical deductions and the historical illustrations should make it possible in the last section to discuss briefly the implications of the proposed framework for regional conflict management or mitigation in the Balkans in the post-Cold War era.     

冷战后的印俄关系

冷战后,印度与俄罗斯保持着密切的政治关系,两国高层互访不断。印俄关系发展源于双方没有重大利益冲突并互有重大需求。但印俄关系在一定程度上受到印美关系的影响,并对中俄关系和中印关系都产生了一定影响。     

试论冷战时期美国对拉美的经济援助

经济援助是冷战时期美国对拉美政策的重要组成部分。这一政策的嬗变经历了四个阶段 :第二次世界大战后～ 1 960年、1 961～ 1 972年、1 973～ 1 980年、1 981～ 1 991年。其中 ,第一阶段和第三阶段是援助的低谷期 ,第二阶段和第四阶段是援助的高峰期。经济援助政策的实质不是促进拉美国家的经济发展和社会进步 ,而是维护美国在西半球的战略安全利益及美国私人资本在拉美的利益     

论冷战时代世界和平运动的影响

本文论述了冷战时代世界和平运动的影响 :加强并深化了人们的反战意识 ,牵制了美苏的军备竞赛 ,影响了有关国家的政府决策 ,有助于推动世界政治的民主化进程 ,抑制局部战争的扩大和升级 ,挫败超级大国发动世界大战的战争准备和战略部署     

后冷战时期俄罗斯的外交构想及评价

冷战结束后,面对国际格局的深刻转型和自身实力的急剧下降,从维护大国地位和影响力出发,俄罗斯国内就对外政策进行了激烈的争论并形成了不同的构想。这种争论源于国家身份的不确定或者说多重性,表明俄罗斯还没有形成一致认同的世界观,并在很大程度上导致对外政策缺乏一致性。新世纪以来,随着俄罗斯对外政策的进一步调整,这种状况才有所改观。     

论冷战时代世界和平运动的特点

和平运动是冷战时代规模和影响最大的世界性群众运动 ,曾经受到很多国家执政党和在野党的重视。随着我国改革开放政策的实施 ,８０年代以来 ,国内报刊对于和平运动与和平研究的报道和介绍也从无到有 ,国内学术界开始有人涉足其间开展研究 ,然而 ,和平运动及和平问题的研究在我国至今尚属薄弱环节。因此 ,本文在分析冷战时代世界和平运动的特点之前 ,先对这一时期世界和平运动的概况略加介绍。冷战时代世界和平运动概况第二次世界大战的硝烟刚刚散去 ,世界和平运动即拉开了序幕。从２０世纪４０年代末至５０年代初 ,连续召开了四届世界人民和…     

冷战后中国地区合作政策的战略效应分析

冷战结束以来,中国积极推行地区合作政策,以缓解崛起带来的安全压力.通过对东盟-中国10+1机制、东亚峰会和上海合作组织三个案例的分析,本文发现,中国地区合作政策受到冷战后大国实力发展趋势的结构性限制,其成功与否有赖于两个条件,一是是否挑战霸权国美国的地区核心利益,二是满足地区合作成员国的核心利益.只有既没有挑战美国的地区核心利益,同时满足周边国家核心利益的政策才能取得成功.     

Patterns of Transnational Terrorism, 1970–1999: Alternative Time-Series Estimates

Using alternative time-series methods, this paper investigates the patterns of transnational terrorist incidents that involve one or more deaths. Initially, an updated analysis of these fatal events for 1970–1999 is presented using a standard linear model with prespecified interventions that represent significant policy and political impacts. Next, a (regime-switching) threshold autoregressive (TAR) model is applied to this fatality time series. TAR estimates indicate that increases above the mean are not sustainable during high-activity eras, but are sustainable during low-activity eras. The TAR model provides a better fit than previously tried methods for the fatality time series. By applying a Fourier approximation to the nonlinear estimates, we get improved results. The findings in this study and those in our earlier studies are then applied to suggest some policy implications in light of the tragic attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001.     

Radicalism of the Hopeless: Refugee Flows and Transnational Terrorism

We examine whether refugee flows increase transnational terrorism in states to which refugees flee. Recent studies find that refugee flows contribute to the spread of interstate and civil war, but to a far lesser extent have studies examined how refugee flows could lead to other forms of political violence. We discuss two ways in which refugee flows can lead to transnational terrorism: how conditions in camps contribute to the radicalization of refugees; and how poorly host states treat refugees. We then conduct empirical tests using data on worldwide international refugee flows and transnational terrorism. Specifically, we model the effect of refugee flows on transnational terror attacks within a directed dyad framework to account for characteristics of origin and host states. Using a rare-events logit model, along with count models to check robustness, we find that refugee flows significantly increase the likelihood and counts of transnational terrorist attacks that occur in the host country, even when controlling for other variables. Given the prominence of refugee flows and populations worldwide, the results suggest that states with significant refugee populations and the international community at large should take measures to address the conditions in refugee camps, as well as the treatment of refugees by host states in order to prevent transnational terrorism.     

Terrorism in an Era of Unconventional Warfare

Academic studies of terrorism and mass political violence have developed largely independently of one another. Insurgents, in contrast, have tended to incorporate terrorism tactics along with other types of unconventional warfare in their repertoire of action. This tendency has become more apparent among insurgents engaging in armed confrontations in the twenty-first century. In order to take account of this development, scholars and others interested in contemporary warfare need to incorporate terrorism studies within the broader subject of insurgencies and “small wars”—political violence, in other words.     

新地区主义视角下的冷战后亚太地区合作

冷战结束后,世界经济发生新的变化,开始了以地区为中心的聚合发展,欧洲、北美和东亚三大地区性经济区逐渐成型.地区主义(Regionalism)传统上作为一种介于全球主义和民族主义之间的意识形态或思潮,在世界经济格局的变动中以新的面目再次出现①.地区主义是一个影响20世纪后期以来世界事务演变的重要的趋势性范式,它的理论和实践已经并将继续改变着世界.本文以新地区主义(New Regionalism)为分析视角,试图说明其对亚太地区合作所起的整合作用.     

Exception in Cold War

In the Cold War, India mainly focused its Southeast Asia Strategy on preserving the regional peace and stability, fearing that changes in Southeast Asia would impact India. Generally speaking, India would like to see a relatively strong, stable and independent Southeast Asia, which would guarantee the stability of its east wing. However, fettered by its limited power, its non-alignment policy and its special relation with Soviet Union, India‘s policy toward Southeast Asia remained relatively passive and its relation with Southeast Asia was, to some extent, trapped in a historical “intermission.“……     

后冷战时期的冷战余波——评美欧俄围绕南奥塞梯事件的战略角逐

美欧俄围绕南奥塞梯事件的斗争已发展成为一场牵动国际战略全局的政治角逐.这场角逐是冷战时期大国争夺势力范围斗争的继续,是后冷战时期的冷战余波.其发展成新冷战的可能性不大,经过反复斗争、较量,达成某种妥协的可能性较大.这一场战略角逐表明世界向多极格局的转型已经接近其最后阶段.     

Surpassing the Cold War Mentality

Five years have passed since September 11. What has been the influence of these events on international relations? What has changed in the world since then? The majority of scholars hold that the September 11 terrorist attacks were essentially a key event, a "turning point" in the international strategy transformation after the Cold War.Yet some others believe that the September 11 terrorist attacks cannot have had so profound an impact on international relations. For example, in America's Foreign Policy, most articles commemorating the fifth anniversary of September 11 fall into the second category. These articles suggest that, five years after September 11, security issues have not slowed down the pace of globalization; potential strategic competition among the big powers has not been weakened due to their cooperation in counter-terrorism and international terrorist organizations, represented by Al Qaeda, still exist. Meanwhile, many proturning-point scholars think that, after September 11, terrorism has become the main threat to international security and that the strategic focuses of major powers have also undergone a big adjustment, valuing cooperation over competition. There is even a saying that "the central content of international relations is to meet challenges from the non-state actors represented by terrorism."     

冷战后美日同盟:建构主义的解释

长期以来,传统的国际关系理论一直主导着人们对国家结盟问题的研究.然而,这一理论在说明和解释当代国家结盟关系方面存在着明显不足,因为它忽视了观念和认同在国家结盟关系中的重要作用.本文利用建构主义视角对冷战后的美日结盟关系进行了分析,指出美日结盟在冷战后的加强,很大程度上是由于它们分享着观念并存在着相互的积极认同.     

冷战时期澳大利亚与东南亚的安全关系

冷战时期,随着外交和经济交往的日益增多,澳大利亚对东南亚的认识发生了重要的变化,东南亚在其外交和安全政策中的地位不断上升,重要性不断显现。在这种背景下,澳大利亚通过几次政策调整,最终与东南亚国家建立了一种良性互动的双边安全关系,从根本上改变了以欧洲为中心的传统政策,亚太成为澳大利亚外交和安全的新中心。