COMMENTARY: MAURITTUS--QUO VADIS?

Mauritius—although situated in the Indian Ocean—hasoften been accounted one of Africa's economic success storiesover the last 15 years. Certainly by comparison with many Africancountries, as well as with other island-states such as thoseof the Caribbean and South Pacific, Mauritius has witnessedimpressive economic growth over that period. Its performanceis less remarkable, however, if it is compared with that ofother island city-states like Hong Kong or Singapore. Thereare many indications that the conditions which sustained Mauritius'seconomic success between 1982 and 1998 are no longer so favourable.This article considers this state of affairs and makes a numberof suggestions as to ways in which Mauritians may consider reactingto the international environment with a view to ensuring a futurebased on further economic growth.     

An Unravelling Development Strategy? Garment Assembly in the Caribbean Basin after the Multifibre Arrangement

The purpose of this article is to assess the likely impact of the ending of the Multifibre Arrangement (MFA) on garment assembly in the Caribbean Basin. Over the last fifteen years or so garment assembly has come to represent one of the region's few economic ‘success stories’ and has accordingly helped to offset the loss of export revenue from traditional commodities such as coffee and sugar. With the ending of the MFA on 1 January 2005, however, the long‐term viability of this trade has been thrown into doubt. This article thus seeks to assess the prospects for continued garment assembly in the Caribbean Basin against the backdrop of these developments.     

China's 'Omnidirectional Diplomacy': Cooperation with all,Emphasis on Major Powers

In the first half of 2001, China's relationship with the two economic power houses, the US and Japan, was anything but smooth. Tomoyuki Kojima, professor of political science and dean of policy management at Keio University describes the principle of China's foreign policy as ''omnidirectional'' diplomacy. The strained relations with the US and Japan, however, were contradictory to this principle which emphasizes international cooperation with a focus on world powers. In the following article, he examines the main reasons for China's problems with both countries. At the time of writing, Shanghai is to host the 2001 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in October, China is poised to enter the World Trade Organization and Beijing had also won the bid to host the 2008 Olympics. As China becomes more and more internationalized, Kojima argues that the emphasis on cooperation will be perceived as having been of vital importance.     

The hidden costs of power-sharing: Reproducing insurgent violence in Africa

This article analyzes some factors underlying the spread ofinsurgent violence in Africa. It focuses on the impact externalfactors have on power struggles on the continent. The firstof these is the unsteady support for democracy from Westerndonors, which has impeded more far-reaching domestic changesin much of Africa. Second are wider changes in the internationalsetting that dramatically enhanced the international standingof armed movements in the post-1989 period. The article arguesthat the interplay of both factors has induced would-be leadersto conquer state power by violent rather than non-violent means.This becomes particularly evident in regard to Western effortsto solve violent conflict through power-sharing agreements.The hypothesis is put forward that the institutionalizationof this practice for the sake of ‘peace’, i.e. providingrebels with a share of state power, has important demonstrationeffects across the continent. It creates an incentive structurewould-be leaders can seize upon by embarking on the insurgentpath as well. As a result, and irrespective of their effectivenessin any given case, power-sharing agreements may contribute tothe reproduction of insurgent violence.     

Is It Putin or Is It Oil? Explaining Russia's Fiscal Recovery

What accounts for the sea change in Russia's fiscal health? This article evaluates several contributing factors: high world energy prices, economic recovery, new tax policies, and the consolidation of state power. By examining the fiscal politics under the Yel'tsin and Putin governments, this article seeks to uncover the relative importance of political and economic causes for the recovery of the tax state in the 2000s. While increased energy production and high world prices augmented the Russian tax base tremendously, the consolidation of power under Vladimir Putin heightened the Russian state's extractive capacity and has enabled Russia's fiscal recovery.     

Democratisation, External Exposure and State Food Distribution in The Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic shares the island of Hispaniola with a 'failed' state, requires regular financial assistance from international funds and remains exposed to external economic pressures. State food distribution in the country, however, adheres to traditional statist policies and institutions that disappeared elsewhere in Latin America and the Caribbean during the 1980s and 1990s. Relevant literature arguably does not anticipate this outcome. This article proposes that political institutions associated with Dominican democratisation since the late 1970s, particularly strong presidentialism, a stable, non-ideological party system and high voter turnout at elections, provide incentives for a status quo, clientelistic policy in this strategic area of social policy.     

The Commonwealth Caribbean and Europe: The End of the Affair?

Abstract

The institutional relationship between the Commonwealth Caribbean and the European Union (EU) dates back to the mid-1970s, when the Lomé Convention was signed. The agreement was seen as a high water mark in First–Third World relations. However, since then the bond has come under concerted pressure. The consequence is that today the particularism that underpinned relations for so long has almost vanished and the EU is beginning to treat the Caribbean like any other relatively marginal region of the world. The article evaluates the reasons for this change, in particular: the scrapping of the trade protocols; the erosion of African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) preference due to free trade agreements signed by the EU; the refocusing of EU development policy towards the least developed countries; and the split in the ACP group with the creation of an ill-designed regional Economic Partnership Agreement. The article places these changes into starker relief by assessing briefly the deepening links between the United Kingdom Overseas Territories and the EU. However, as the article highlights, this link will neither reboot nor sustain the more important Commonwealth Caribbean–EU relationship.     

Policy Change and the Politics of Expertise: Economic Ideas and Immigration Control Reforms in Switzerland

This article analyses the varying influence across time of the “epistemic community“ of free‐market economists on immigration policy making in Switzerland. To this end, a framework for the analysis of the impact of economic expertise is provided, and then used in an historical analysis comparing the 1960s with the 1990s. Whereas this influence can be considered to have been weak in the 1960s, it gained significantly in importance in the 1990s, when a period of economic unrest seriously challenged previous immigration policies. It is argued that economic experts played an important role in framing the reforms undertaken during this latter period, notably by providing a “credible causal story“ about the links between the existing immigration policy and the social problems which arose in the country in the 1990s. As compared to the 1960s, economic expertise in the 1990s enjoyed more credibility, more political support and took full advantage of a more uncertain social and economic context.     

新加坡公民社会组织的兴起与治理中的合作网络

新加坡的政治文化和国家意识正在经历变迁."新加坡21远景计划"的制定反映并强化了这一变迁的趋势.这是新加坡公民社会及其组织兴起所必需的结构性因素.新加坡各类公民社会组织积极回应政治系统发生的变迁.现有组织力图淡化传统的角色功能,寻求赋予其自身新的合法性.新兴组织则利用大好机遇和可待开发的广阔社会空间努力发展自己.公民社会组织的兴起,为新加坡在稳健而又似乎缓慢的民主化进程中重新界定国家与社会的关系提供了新的路径.     

Understanding Presidential Failure in South America

This article examines the issue of presidential failure in South America by evaluating the multiple factors that create risk of resignation, removal, or impeachment of presidents. The study draws on various economic variables that have not been thoroughly investigated in the past and uses survival analysis to identify what factors are influential. In performing this testing, the importance of variables such as civil protest, executive wrongdoing, and specific measures of economic hardship—inflation and prolonged recession—becomes clear. Majority legislative support also remains significant, supporting early arguments about the influence of presidential institutions. This investigation provides a unique perspective on presidential survival while evaluating the importance of previously excluded variables in a comprehensive manner.     

Singapore's cultural policy and its consequences

Abstract

This article explores the effects of Singapore's Global City for the Arts project on the local theater industry. It begins by describing the character of the Singapore state and its ability to meet the challenges of globalization. It then shows that while historically global in orientation, the city-state's early cultural policies were resolutely local and insular prior to the economic recession in 1985. From that year on, local arts and culture was driven by an economic rationale — eventually culminating in the birth of a globally oriented national cultural policy: the Global City for the Arts project. The author contends that the Global City for the Arts project has pressured the Singapore state into shedding some of its authoritarian practices in order to conform to international norms. However, the author also illustrates how certain theater companies with the requisite cultural capital for the Global City for the Arts project have benefited from the country's cultural policies while others that do not possess such cultural capital are marginalized. The article concludes by arguing that the Singapore state, in going global, exacerbates the economic disparity by accentuating preexisting inequalities and divisions in the local.     

Moving Beyond the Policy of No Policy: Emigration from Mexico and Central America

Do Caribbean Basin states influence U.S. immigration policy? Although the terrorist attacks of September 2001 eventually derailed migration talks, before that time Mexico and the United States appeared poised to negotiate a major bilateral agreement, largely on Mexico's terms. Drawing on 88 detailed interviews conducted with Mexican and other Caribbean Basin elites, this article examines sending‐state preferences for emigration and their capacity to influence policy outcomes. The informants considered migration to be the most problematic issue on the bilateral agenda, but also saw migration policy as relatively open to source‐state influence. A case study of Mexican emigration policymaking details the national and transnational changes that make migration increasingly an inter‐mestic policy issue.     

Economic Shocks and Democratic Vulnerabilities in Latin America and the Caribbean

Historical evidence suggests that bad economic times often mean bad times for democracy, but prior research has given us little guidance on how this process may work. What economic conditions are most threatening, and how might they weaken consolidating democracies? This article uses the AmericasBarometer conducted by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) to answer these questions by focusing on core attitudes for the consolidation of democracy. We use survey data at the level of the individual and economic data at the country level to help detect democratic vulnerabilities in Latin America and the Caribbean. The study finds that conditions of low levels of economic development, low economic growth, and high levels of income inequality increase those vulnerabilities substantially, but the effects are not uniform across individuals. Some groups, especially the young and the poor, are particularly vulnerable to some antidemocratic appeals.     

生命危机与阶层危机——对美国中镇一个中产阶级家庭的个案研究

基于对美国中镇一个中产阶级家庭居家临终关怀的参与观察,在生命危机的特殊语境下,从家庭层面呈现当下美国中西部“铁锈带”中产阶级的生活状况。当下美国社会的中产阶级危机不仅是特定文化或者宏观政治、社会或经济政策的后果,更是个体化的、缺乏资产和其他依托的中产阶级自身脆弱性的必然结果。生命危机和阶层危机叠加之下,平时无法被轻易感受到的、作为一种长期趋势的中产阶级的脆弱性,呈现得更为明显。     

Martinique’s Accession to the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States: A New Chapter in Caribbean Regionalism?

The admission of Martinique as an associate member of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States in 2015 has been seen as an event of significance in the Caribbean region for a number of reasons. Among other things, it was the first example of a non-Anglophone country being accorded that status, and it was the first French territory allowed to join one of the core regional groupings of the Commonwealth Caribbean. This article argues that the deepening of Martinique’s relationship with its neighbours within a multilateral framework may offer new practical possibilities for regional integration.     

Macroeconomic Concerns and Intrastate Bargains: Explaining Illiberal Policies in Brazil's Automobile Sector

This article seeks to explain the highly interventionist Brazilian automobile policy of 1995, which drastically departed from the neoliberal principles guiding Brazilian economic policy at the time. This seemingly inconsistent policy stemmed from two overlapping bargains. The first, between the private sector and the government's developmentalist, and hence more permeable elements, shaped the policy's content and design. A second, more crucial intrastate bargain pitted the defenders of the previous development model against the team of neoliberal, technocratic economists who had centralized economic decisionmaking authority since mid-1993. These economists' support for the automobile policy must be understood as a response to the macroeconomic and political challenges they faced in 1995. This study highlights the importance of examining the undisclosed actions of the state and the role of intrastate cleavages in political economy outcomes.     

Non-government Organizations,Villagers, Political Culture and the Lower Sesan 2 Dam in Northeastern Cambodia

The Lower Sesan 2 (LS2) Hydropower Project in northeastern Cambodia is presently under construction. As the largest dam to ever be built in Cambodia, it is expected to cause serious and widespread environmental and social impacts. This article analyzes, on the one hand, the relationships between Cambodian non-government organizations (NGOs) and villagers who will be negatively impacted by LS2, and on the other, NGO relations with the Cambodian state. While development actors frequently attempt to construct particular narratives in order to control development trajectories, this research demonstrates that such attempts can meet with serious resistance from local people, even when facing powerful opponents, including in this case NGOs that prefer to advocate for better resettlement and compensation conditions rather than for the cancellation of projects. Focusing on interactions, positioning, local agency, and the particular political culture of Cambodia, this article highlights the importance of particular types of patronage relations in Cambodia between NGOs and villagers, NGOs and the state, and associated territorialization.     

Demystifying the Park Chung-Hee Myth: Land Reform in the Evolution of Korea’s Developmental State

The developmental state literature emphasises the importance of state autonomy and capacity, with a particular focus on a Weberian type of meritocratic bureaucracy. Existing studies of South Korea’s economic development generally credit Park Chung-hee for establishing such a state. This article questions this assessment with careful process tracing of the development of a meritocratic bureaucracy in the country. The findings suggest that the contrast between the predatory Rhee regime (1948–1960) and the developmental Park regime (1961–1979) has been exaggerated. Meritocracy in South Korea’s bureaucratic recruitment and promotion systems developed gradually over several decades, including during Rhee’s regime as well as the short democratic episode (1960–1961). What then explains the evolution of a developmental state in Korea? This article suggests that land reform contributed to not only creating social structural conditions favourable to state autonomy but also promoting the development of a meritocratic bureaucracy by propelling rapid expansion of education and by mitigating the extent of political clientelism.     

International election observation in Guyana 1964–2001

The infusion of election observation in the political landscape of the Caribbean has presented a range of trends and reactions. Some countries, such as Guyana, have had a more entrenched and controversial history with observation than others. Guyana was the first Caribbean country to have had international observers. This paper presents a survey of the case of Guyana between 1964 and 2001. The article outlines all the observed elections in Guyana during this period with reference to issues of logistics, size, duration and the actors involved. It also assesses the outcomes of international observer presence in these elections and explores the implications for Guyana’s efforts to display acquiescence to the norm of holding free and fair elections.     

The Implications of Brexit for the Caribbean’s Future Relationship with Britain and the EU

Abstract

The UK Brexit referendum to leave the EU has created concerns internationally, particularly for countries that have formal trade, aid and investment treaties with the EU and none with Britain alone. The notion of a Commonwealth Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is a non-starter and would bring no benefits to the Caribbean. But, Britain outside the EU deprives the Caribbean of a sympathetic voice on a range of issues, including financial services, and alters the level of official development assistance that will be available from remaining EU members that have no historical relationship with the English-speaking Caribbean. The importance of the UK as a market for their goods and services make it imperative for Caribbean countries to start early ‘talks’ with London so as not to be crowded out by FTAs that the UK will conclude with countries larger and richer than the Caribbean. At the same time, Brexit provides an opportunity for the Caribbean to revisit its unsatisfactory Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU. Caribbean countries need to determine their objectives and take early initiatives to realise them.