The Development and Application of Random Match Probabilities to Firearm and Toolmark Identification

The field of firearms and toolmark analysis has encountered deep scrutiny of late, stemming from a handful of voices, primarily in the law and statistical communities. While strong scrutiny is a healthy and necessary part of any scientific endeavor, much of the current criticism leveled at firearm and toolmark analysis is, at best, misinformed and, at worst, punditry. One of the most persistent criticisms stems from the view that as the field lacks quantified random match probability data (or at least a firm statistical model) with which to calculate the probability of a false match, all expert testimony concerning firearm and toolmark identification or source attribution is unreliable and should be ruled inadmissible. However, this critique does not stem from the hard work of actually obtaining data and performing the scientific research required to support or reject current findings in the literature. Although there are sound reasons (described herein) why there is currently no unifying probabilistic model for the comparison of striated and impressed toolmarks as there is in the field of forensic DNA profiling, much statistical research has been, and continues to be, done to aid the criminal justice system. This research has thus far shown that error rate estimates for the field are very low, especially when compared to other forms of judicial error. The first purpose of this paper is to point out the logical fallacies in the arguments of a small group of pundits, who advocate a particular viewpoint but cloak it as fact and research. The second purpose is to give a balanced review of the literature regarding random match probability models and statistical applications that have been carried out in forensic firearm and toolmark analysis.     

Objective Analysis of Impressed Chisel Toolmarks

Historical and recent challenges to the practice of comparative forensic examination have created a driving force for the formation of objective methods for toolmark identification. In this study , fifty sequentially manufactured chisels were used to create impression toolmarks in lead (500 toolmarks total). An algorithm previously used to statistically separate known matching and nonmatching striated screwdriver marks and quasi-striated plier marks was used to evaluate the chisel marks. Impression toolmarks, a more complex form of toolmark, pose a more difficult test for the algorithm that was originally designed for striated toolmarks. Results show in this instance that the algorithm can separate matching and nonmatching impression marks, providing further validation of the assumption that toolmarks are identifiably unique.     

A Fully Automatic Method for Comparing Cartridge Case Images,

When a gun is fired, it leaves marks on cartridge cases that are thought to be unique to the gun. In current practice, firearms examiners inspect cartridge cases for “sufficient agreement,” in which case they conclude that they come from the same gun, testifying in courts as such. A 2016 President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology report questioned the scientific validity of such analysis (President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology, Washington, DC, Executive Office of the President). One recommendation was to convert firearms analysis to an objective method. We propose a fully automated, open‐source method for comparing breechface marks on cartridge cases using 2D optical images. We improve on existing methodology by automating the selection of marks, and removing the effects of circular symmetry. We propose an empirical computation of a “random match probability” given a known database, which can be used to quantify the weight of evidence. We demonstrate an improvement in accuracy on images from controlled test fires.     

Firearm and toolmark identification criteria: a review of the literature,part II

An update to a previously published review of articles pertaining to firearm and toolmark identification criteria is presented. In this update, 22 additional articles were reviewed, including works of a general nature, studies critically assessing the theory of consecutive matching striations, empirical studies involving various firearm components, toolmark studies, as well as articles discussing the utility of statistics in the firearms and toolmark identification discipline. These articles have been reviewed in a format to permit others to learn what has been published in the field in an effort to educate interested parties. Further, a discussion of the importance of articulation and communication within the discipline is presented.     

Discharge of a Pistol Out a Car Window with the Breech Within the Interior of the Car: Analysis of Gunshot Residue on a Car's Interior Surfaces

The defendant, the driver of the questioned car, allegedly extended his right arm over the passenger seat and fired a single shot from a 380 pistol out the passenger window with the pistol's breech within the car. A simulation of this shooting scenario using the same model car, but different year, was conducted to quantitate gunshot residue (GSR) contamination of interior surfaces within the car. The test car's dash and headliner/window frame above the pistol had the heaviest GSR contamination. The dash GSR from airborne deposition documents a firearm discharge within the vehicle. Transfer from GSR‐contaminated hands or clothing to the dash is unlikely. The heavy GSR contamination of the headliner/window frame above the pistol likely documents the window from which the pistol was fired, but additional experiments are needed to verify.     

The Use of a Sequential Extraction Technique to Characterize Soil Trace Evidence Recovered from a Spade in a Murder Case in Brazil*

Soil trace evidence can be useful in criminal investigations. A homicide which had occurred in South Brazil been concluded through the courts with a guilty conviction. A spade with soil traces adhering to it was seized from the confessed killer's house, it having been established that it had been used to bury parts of the victim's body. In the context of this confession, it provided an opportunity to test a protocol of analysis and verify the potential of discriminate soil sample analysis in such case works. This allowed us to test the practice of sequential analysis which had been developed for forensic case works in Brazil, with three sequential extractions: (i) 0.2 mol/L pH 3.0 ammonium oxalate; (ii) dithionite–citrate–bicarbonate; and (iii) 0.5 mol/L NaOH. It was possible to predict the sequence of events related to the homicide by using the sequential extraction technique and to conclude that: (i) the A horizon soil from the burial location of the torso was found to be very similar to the soil samples which had been recovered from the spade, which was able to be established despite there only being a small amount of soil adhering to the spade; (ii) the location where the legs were buried contributed a low amount of soil adhering to the spade. Therefore, it is suggested that, where possible, sequential extractions should be prioritized from a questioned sample to best provide information about the likely sequence of contact places and this test likely scenarios and criminal events.     

JOHN BOWLBY'S LEGACY AND MEANINGS FOR THE FAMILY LAW FIELD: IN CONVERSATION WITH SIR RICHARD BOWLBY

John Bowlby (1907–1990), a British psychologist, psychiatrist and psychoanalyst, is widely known as the father of attachment theory. He was also the father of Richard Bowlby. Since his father's death, Sir Richard Bowlby has made it his life's work to carry on his father's legacy, seeking ways to help the general public benefit from a better understanding of attachment relationships and his father's work in particular. Although an Honorary Research Fellow, Department of Psychology, University College, London, and patron of many organizations that address challenging attachment issues, Richard Bowlby emphasizes that his strengths are in being “a well‐informed layman, having some pretty good inside information, and some wonderful stories to tell.” Here, he covers a wide range of topics and controversies core to family law, offering contemporary and historical insights, perspectives from his father, and an interesting tale or two.     

The Intent Behind the Cryptic Concurrence That Provided a Reporter's Privilege

Justice Lewis Powell wrote a concurrence in Branzburg v. Hayes that, despite a majority opinion to the contrary, eventually provided room for journalists to claim a privilege against testifying in grand jury proceedings. For decades, scholars and judges have questioned what Justice Powell meant by his concurrence and whether he, in fact, supported a reporter's right to refuse to reveal confidential information. Justice Powell's personal papers and case files, as well as those of his fellow justices, observations of one of his former law clerks, and oral arguments shed light on the reasoning behind Justice Powell's enigmatic concurrence. This article concludes that Justice Powell supported a qualified reporter's privilege, applied on a case-by-case basis.     

Confocal microscopy analysis of breech face marks on fired cartridge cases from 10 consecutively manufactured pistol slides

Recent publications from the National Academy of Sciences have called for additional foundational research in the field of firearm and toolmark analysis. We examined test fires from 10 pistol slides with consecutively manufactured breech faces. A total of nine test fires from each pistol slide, for a total of 90 test fired cartridge cases, were compared using confocal microscopy combined with three-dimensional cross-correlation analysis algorithms. A total of 8010 comparisons were performed (720 matches and 7290 nonmatches). The average score for matches was 0.82 with a standard deviation of 0.06. The average score for nonmatches was 0.20 with a standard deviation of 0.03. Additionally, subclass toolmarks were observed on the breech faces, but the presence of subclass was not detected in the correlation analysis. There was no overlap of scores between matching and nonmatching test fires. This provides objective data that support the AFTE (Association of Firearms and Tool Mark Examiners) theory of identification.     

An ideal material for the preparation of known toolmark test impressions

Traditionally, toolmark test exemplars are produced by applying a tool's working surface to a piece of soft metal such as lead. Soft, pliable metals are primarily used for this purpose because they will replicate the microscopic grooves present on a tool's working surface without damaging the tool. In this paper the authors present an alternative material for the preparation of test toolmarks. Jewelry modeling or carving waxes are utilized in this study. These waxes are designed for the jewelry modeling industry to create very fine, highly detailed wax models of jewelry pieces that will be cast in various metals utilizing the lost wax casting method. Jeweler's waxes have been found to be ideal for preparing test toolmarks from exemplar tools. The test tool's working surface is applied to a piece of the appropriate wax in a manner consistent with the tool's design. The replicas obtained are exact, highly detailed, 1:1, negative impressions of the exemplar tools working surface, have a long shelf-life, and are suitable for use in toolmark examination and comparison cases.     

Violence,Law, and Politics: Hannah Arendt and Robert M. Cover in Comparative Perspective

Despite many significant points of intersection between his work and that of Hannah Arendt, the legal scholar Robert Cover largely declined to engage her perspective, which posed major challenges to his own. While scholars seeking to rethink Cover's legacy in order to develop a jurisprudence of violence have criticized Cover's acquiescence to the Hobbesian model of the sovereign state, they have similarly ignored Arendt's critique of the Hobbesian model and her attempts to build an alternative to it. This article examines central issues of convergence and divergence between Arendt's and Cover's approaches to law, politics, and violence with the aim to redress this neglect of Arendt's perspective. It begins by focusing on their interpretations of the role and significance of the courtroom trial. It then compares their analysis of the character, effects, and implications of domination as a type of organized power and as a means of conceptualizing punishment, before it concentrates on their instrumental conception of violence, the issue of justification, and its relationship to power. The article concludes by arguing that Arendt's approach, which situates an analysis of law and violence within a broader critique of modernity, provides a more trenchant critical framework for examining the rise of the carceral state than does Cover's.     

Preventing Crime is Hard Work: Early Intervention,Developmental Criminology,and the Enduring Legacy of James Q. Wilson

Objective

The late James Q. Wilson (1931-2012) was a prolific scholar and made many important contributions to the field of criminology. Less well known, however, is that Wilson was a great advocate of early prevention of delinquency and later offending. This essay examines this aspect of Wilson's overall contribution to criminology.

Materials and methods

Narrative review of Wilson's research and writings on early crime prevention and developmental criminology.

Results

Three key events delineate Wilson's long-lasting support for early crime prevention: his 1983 "Raising Kids" article with its special focus on family-based prevention; his help to initiate and champion developmental and longitudinal research on offending in the 1980s and 1990s; and his influential writings and behind-the-scenes work on early prevention throughout the 1990s and 2000s.

Conclusions

Wilson played an important role in advocating for early crime prevention. Without question, this is part of his enduring legacy to the field of criminology.     

The viability and possible applications of high resolution mark replicator casting compound in document examination.

Mark replicator casting compounds are commonly associated with recovering toolmark detail. A series of experiments was designed to identify the possible applications, and assess the overall viability, of using mark replicator compound to record indentations on questioned documents. The trials included testing the effect of Isomark High Resolution Mark Replicator on different paper-based substrate types, and observing in particular, any damage that it may cause. The experiments also tested the effect that the mark replicator has on subsequent fingerprinting techniques. It was found that the mark replicator successfully recorded indentations on paper and card surfaces. In some cases, the mark replicator caused staining on some of the surfaces and had a negative effect on the quality of fingerprints subsequently developed.     

Conservatism and common sense: The criminological career of James Q. Wilson

James Q. Wilson and his views have commonly been framed as controversial and, at times, as an anathema to the discipline of criminology. This article first examines Wilson's criminological contributions chronologically, from his research on policing in the 1960s to his moral philosophy of today. Second and concomitantly, it discusses recurrent themes of political conservatism and common sense that dominate Wilson's work. The author concludes that criminology could be further enriched by the diversity, pragmatism, commonsense appeal, and policy relevance of conservative scholarship, such as Wilson's.     

Ed Mansfield and the Diffusion of Innovation: An Evolutionary Connection

The analysis of the diffusion of innovation was a central theme in Ed Mansfield's work over many years. In this essay I summarise his analysis of logistic diffusion processes and relate his work to earlier studies of industrial retardation and subsequent work on evolutionary economic processes. A distinction has to be drawn between the logistic law and the logistic curve, the latter being only one instantiation of the more general law which is itself a signature of evolutionary selection processes within a population of rival innovations.     

Contemporary Feminist Perspectives on Social Contract Theory

Abstract. This paper explores two feminist contributions to the analysis of the social contract tradition, comparing the political philosophy of Carole Pateman with the moral theory of Jean Hampton, to ask two questions. First, which points must feminists continue to argue in their critique of the social contract tradition today? The second question is: Can feminists actually draw anything from the social contract tradition today? It argues that Pateman's critique of contractarianism continues to be useful when read in the context of her analysis of “self‐ownership” and subordination rather than as a rewriting of the social contract. Hampton's deployment of a Kantian test for the failure of respect for personhood within domestic (and other) relationships does not undermine Pateman's position. Consideration of how such an ideal can be understood as potentially compatible with Pateman's perspective raises issues about the radical potential within claims for equal respect for personhood. In Hampton's work, widespread “test failure” can be used to indicate that political action rather than moral analysis is required. Hampton assumes that those employing the test are able to abstract themselves sufficiently from their current position to imagine what it would be to be treated as a person. It is argued that this “moral test” should be envisaged as being asked in concert with others, at which point it has the potential to become political action.     

Metamorphosis in Hans Kelsen's Legal Philosophy

Two major questions stem from the fundamental shift in Hans Kelsen's legal philosophy that takes place in 1960 and the years thereafter: first, the scope of the shift and, second, its explanation. On the first question, I argue that the shift is not limited to Kelsen's rejection of the applicability of logic to legal norms. Rather, it reaches to his rejection of the entire Kantian edifice of his earlier work. On the second question, I argue that the explanation for the shift has a conceptual dimension as well as a historico‐biographical dimension. That is, I argue that Kelsen's rejection of the principle of non‐contradiction vis‐à‐vis legal norms reaches to the Kantian edifice in that the principle was presupposed in Kelsen's earlier work and appears, expressis verbis, in his ‘Kantian filter’. And I argue that certain historico‐biographical data are germane, including, quite possibly, the earlier revolution in Kelsen's thought, that of 1939–40.     

Reporting likelihood ratio for casework in firearm evidence identification

Likelihood ratio (LR) plays an important role in estimating the weight of evidence in firearm evidence identifications. LR is computed from a statistical model including the distribution of the known-matching (KM or within) and known-nonmatching (KNM or between) comparison scores. Current LR procedures rely on KM/KNM scores from existing reference firearm toolmark data sets or alternatively from generating a set of test fires using multiple firearms. Both procedures may contain theoretical or practical issues which may hinder the LR procedures from reporting an unbiased LR estimation in casework. In this paper, a reference data set was established from a set of firearms, each test-fired two cartridge cases, resulting in a basic data set and a control data set. The congruent matching cells (CMC) method was used to generate CMC scores that are used to fit in the KM/KNM statistical distributions for LR estimation. In the initial test, 130 firearms from eight manufacturers were used for generating a reference data set consisting of 260 cartridge cases representing 130 KM and 8385 KNM pairwise breech face images. Test results showed that the KM and KNM distribution intersect at CMC = 2, which is equivalent to LR = 1 (equally to support both the prosecutor and the defense propositions). When the CMC threshold is increased to 6 or more, the LR values are higher than a million, which can provide extremely strong support to the conclusion of the same firearm (or the prosecutor's proposition) in the casework of firearm evidence identification.     

Use of the Method of Concrete Sociology to Study the Work of Deputies

The role and significance of the work of deputies to local Soviets are increasing under present conditions. As a consequence, there is definite interest in questions pertaining to the amount of time needed to perform duties as a deputy, whether this coincides with working time and to what degree, whether the time expended upon functions as a deputy is used most rationally, how effective the deputy's activity is, and whether it is affected by his education, age, occupation, sex, party affiliation, etc., which factors promote, and which hinder, the deputies' work, and how the training of deputies, exchange of experience, etc., should be organized so as to take their own desires into consideration to a maximum degree. These and other questions were posed in the course of an investigation conducted by personnel of the Law Sector of the Institute of Economics of the Estonian SSR, the Department of CPSU History of Tartu University, and the Computer Center of Tartu University. The study was conducted with the aid of an appropriate questionnaire and subsequent processing of the materials obtained on a "Ural-4" computer. The questionnaire data were obtained directly from the deputies. Certain generalizations on the work of deputies to the local Soviets may be made by means of these data.     

Advances in Critical Cultural Criminology: An Analysis of Reactions to Avant-Garde Flag Art

As a popular motif in American art, images ofthe United States flag remind citizens of the importanceof culture in promoting patriotism. Still, theprevailing aesthetic commands a dignifiedrepresentation of the Stars and Stripes,shunning political criticism and disrespect forthe nation's most cherished emblem. Amid thecontroversy over flag burning in 1989, artistDread Scott unveiled his work What is theProper Way to Display the U.S. Flag? at theSchool of the Art Institute of Chicago. In thatpiece, the U.S. flag was placed on the floor ofthe gallery, inciting enormous public outrage.As a form of interactive art, Scott invitedvisitors to record their thoughts about theflag in a ledger book furnished at the exhibit.More than 1,600 messages were transcribed inthe ledger book, thus becoming an intriguingsource of unobtrusive data. This researchexplores societal reaction to Scott's artworkthrough a content analysis of the entriescontained in the ledger book. Whileinterpreting prominent themes framing theconflict over flag desecration, this workcontributes to a critical cultural criminology.In particular, the analysis brings to theforefront the significance of power,hierarchies, and social inequality drivingcriminalization campaigns aimed at controllingavant-garde flag art and political dissent.