LONGEVITY‐RELATED OPTIONS FOR SOCIAL SECURITY: A MICROSIMULATION APPROACH TO RETIREMENT AGE AND MORTALITY ADJUSTMENTS

We consider the distributional implications of Social Security policy changes in the context of increases in life expectancy and differential mortality. Using a robust microsimulation model, we examine how several options for raising the retirement age, including a scenario that applies a mortality adjustment in combination with such policies, affect different types of individuals and households. Policy changes are simulated for Social Security beneficiaries in 2030 using the Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) microsimulation model. The analysis shows that increasing either the age at which individuals receive their full retirement benefit alone or the early eligibility and full retirement ages together result in across‐the‐board reductions in benefit levels. The policies are projected to result in slightly higher poverty, but the expected rise is sharper among groups known to experience higher rates of mortality, as well as many disadvantaged groups. Analysis of a hypothetical adjustment to offset the historical impacts of differential mortality by lifetime earnings on lifetime benefit receipt, when combined with these retirement age increases, shows varied results. While some groups of individuals experience sharper reductions in median monthly benefits, the adjustment has an offsetting and protective effect for the benefits of disadvantaged groups when combined with options that would raise the retirement age. This combined package of policies, as well as simulations that incorporate a behavioral adjustment in benefit claiming ages, result in an increase of less than one percentage point in the average poverty rate.     

Determinants of initial entry onto welfare by young women

Using data from the youngest cohorts of women in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this study constructs Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) histories starting at age 15. Most young women go on AFDC for the first time between ages 18 and 25 and do so in the first few years after the birth of their first baby. These histories are used to estimate models of the determinants of initial use of AFDC. The models provide mixed evidence that the financial or other incentives of welfare policy affect the likelihood and timing of AFDC use. Benefit levels do not seem to affect participation, but the presence of a program for medically needy families who are not on welfare appears to decrease entrance to welfare for some groups. Parental poverty, family structure, academic achievement, attitudes toward school, and race are significantly related to the likelihood of participating in AFDC, and the rate of entry. © 2000 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy for male social security-covered workers, by socioeconomic status

This article presents an analysis of trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy by average relative earnings for male Social Security-covered workers aged 60 or older. Because average relative earnings are measured at the peak of the earnings distribution (ages 45-55), it is assumed that they act as a rough proxy for socioeconomic status. The historical literature reviewed in this analysis generally indicates that mortality differentials by socioeconomic status have not been constant over time. For this study, time trends are examined by observing how mortality differentials by average relative earnings have been changing over 29 years of successive birth cohorts that encompass roughly the first third of the 20th century. Deaths for these birth cohorts are observed at ages 60-89 from 1972 through 2001, encompassing roughly the last third of the 20th century. The large size and long span of death observations allow for disaggregation by age and year-of-birth groups in the estimation of mortality differentials by socioeconomic status. This study finds a difference in both the level and the rate of change in mortality improvement over time by socioeconomic status for male Social Security-covered workers. Average relative earnings (measured as the relative average positive earnings of an individual between ages 45 and 55) are used as a proxy for adult socioeconomic status. In general, for birth cohorts spanning the years 1912-1941 (or deaths spanning the years 1972-2001 at ages 60-89), the top half of the average relative earnings distribution has experienced faster mortality improvement than has the bottom half. Specifically, male Social Security-covered workers born in 1941 who had average relative earnings in the top half of the earnings distribution and who lived to age 60 would be expected to live 5.8 more years than their counterparts in the bottom half. In contrast, among male Social Security-covered workers born in 1912 who survived to age 60, those in the top half of the earnings distribution would be expected to live only 1.2 years more than those in the bottom half. The life expectancy estimates in this article represent one possible outcome under one set of assumptions. These projections should not be regarded as an accurate depiction of the future. Specifically, this study adopts a simple projection method in which differentials are assumed to follow the pattern observed over the last 30 years of the 20th century for the first 30 years of the 21st century. This assumption lacks theoretical underpinnings because the causes of the widening differentials observed over the past 30 years have not been determined. On the one hand, if the trend of widening mortality differentials by year of birth observed over the past 30 years does not continue, the projection method used in this analysis could lead to an overestimation of future differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups. On the other hand, if mortality differentials do not narrow by age as observed in the past, the projection method used could lead to an underestimation of the differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups aged 60 or older.     

The long‐term effects of public housing on self‐sufficiency

Recent years have witnessed an intensification of the debate about the fundamental purpose of public assistance to the poor and the effects of these programs on children. This study uses enriched data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to examine the effects of living in public housing as a child at some point between 1968 and 1982 on four young adult outcomes: welfare receipt; individual earnings; household earnings relative to the federal poverty line; and employment. Living in public housing during childhood increased employment, raised earnings, and reduced welfare use, but had no effect on household earnings relative to the poverty line. The beneficial effects could have arisen because public housing improved physical living conditions, reduced residential mobility, or enabled families to spend more of their income on items that benefit children's development. Whether these effects apply to contemporary public housing is unknown. © 2002 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

城市减贫的权利再现

城市贫困的发生与城市化进程有关,也与城市权利的实现有关。在全球范围内,城市化多伴随着贫困的治理,收入的差距最终将摧毁城市健康成长的物质与权利结构。中国的城市贫困隐藏在城市化的宏大叙事之中,体现为城市公共生活的个体争取;在城市化已经完成的西方国家,城市贫困则体现为公共生活的机会丧失。从现象上看,城市贫困呈现出空间与职业的分布特征,但是劳动才是城市生活的权利起点,因此劳动权的保障应该成为城市政府的政策起点。在中国的城市化进程中,城乡之间、区域之间的权利差距势必驱动人口流入沿海发达城市,从而形成单向度的权利选择,给一些城市增加了治理难度。因此,中国的城市治理还要立足区域协同发展,确保无差别的城市权利的全过程保障。     

Adult roles and the gender gap in political knowledge: a comparative study

The unusual size and persistence of the gender gap in political knowledge is perplexing in comparison to other dimensions of politics. Building on situational explanations of political engagement, this article claims that women’s and men’s specific adult roles lead to an enlargement of the gender gap in knowledge. The present study analyses men and women’s levels of political knowledge at different life stages by means of two unique datasets specifically collected to measure what people know about politics. Findings show that adult roles provide more opportunities for men to gain political knowledge than for women. Furthermore, the comparison of levels of political knowledge in two such dissimilar countries as Finland and Spain suggests that while gender equality policies are successful in tearing down some of the obstacles that hinder women’s contact with the political world, they are still insufficient to completely bridge the gender gap in political knowledge during adulthood.     

Regulating the retirement age—Lessons from Nordic pension policy approaches

The likelihood that longevity will continue to increase has generated a search for regulation that make people work longer as they live longer, and thus not just containing pension expenditure but also enlarging labor supply, economic growth, and tax revenue. In public pension policy, Nordic countries have led the world with three types of approaches aimed at making people retire later. The first came when Sweden, followed by Finland and Norway, installed life expectancy coefficients in benefit calculation formulas. The second followed as Finland introduced age-related accrual rates and the third when Denmark indexed the pensionable age to developments in life expectancy. Since economic incentive-based regulations failed to raise exit ages sufficiently, Finland and Sweden subsequently linked pensionable ages to life expectancy like Denmark. While this policy brings out inequalities in health and workability, the fact that countries found it necessary to index the pensionable age to longevity instead of just relying on economic incentives in regulating retirement behavior may hold lessons for other countries.     

Poverty — A Precarious Public Policy Idea

The mixed economy of the welfare state armed with the new science of public administration was going to eradicate poverty. But it hasn't and the policy influence of the idea of poverty has fallen away. I explain this by looking at the conditions under which good ideas are likely to make it to policy status. Good ideas tend to be simple to understand; resonate with people's experiences of life; have leadership and a policy community around them; fit into program and resource structures of governments and seem capable of solving immediate problems. The idea of eradicating poverty has lost these features. For example, for the past 20 years poverty ideas have been knocked off their perch by economic reform ideas. Not only are there these competing economic ideas (which are claimed to be a solution to poverty), there is also a raft of new social capital ideas making claims on policy resources. The idea of poverty has been obfuscated such that we can't agree what it means any more or how to measure it or who is responsible for tackling it. Which, of course, means no one can be held accountable. Out of the muddle I suggest a way forward to make the idea influential again. For example, having some national goals and agreeing some basic language and targets would be a good start.     

An analysis of the relationship between various redistributive programs and poverty

This paper utilizes multivariate exogeneity (causality) tests to analyze the relationship between various income policy programs and the poverty rate. The framework we develop allows us to make a distinction between intended poverty reduction objectives and automatic stabilizing behavior. Since we find that the poverty in a given year affects the funding of social programs in later years, we conclude that these programs are primarily acting as automatic stabilizers (i.e., the poverty reduction instruments do not appear to have been implemented with a relentless intent to reduce poverty, a result consistent with Tullock's [1983, 1986] theorem).     

Patterns and determinants of public shelter utilization among homeless adults in New York City and Philadelphia

Administrative data on public shelter utilization among homeless adults from New York City (1987–1994) and Philadelphia (1991–1994) are analyzed to identify the relative proportion of shelter users by length of stay and rate of readmission, and to identify the characteristics that predict an exit from shelter. Survival analyses reveal that half of adult shelter users will stay fewer than 45 days over a two-year period (combined stays), and that approximately one half of men and one third of women will experience a readmission within two years of the first admission. Results also document the size and relative resource consumption of a long-term sheltered population, finding that 18.2 percent of New York shelter users stay 180 days or more in their first year, consuming 53.4 percent of the system days for first-time shelter users. Discrete-time logistic hazard regression analyses reveal that, in general, being older, of black race, having a substance abuse or mental health problem, or having a physical disability, significantly reduces the likelihood of exiting shelter. In both cities, people entering shelter in later years are staying longer, although individuals have shorter episodes on subsequent admissions. The implications of this study for the analysis and management of emergency shelter system utilization are discussed.     

Explaining race,poverty, and gender disparities in advanced course‐taking

We use panel data on Florida high school students to examine race, poverty, and gender disparities in advanced course‐taking. While white students are more likely to take advanced courses than black and Hispanic students, these disparities are eliminated when we condition on observable pre–high school characteristics. In fact, black and Hispanic students are more likely than observably similar white students to take advanced courses. Controlling for students' pre–high school characteristics substantially reduces poverty gaps, modestly reduces Asian–white gaps, and makes little dent in female–male gaps. Black and Hispanic students attend high schools that increase their likelihood of taking advanced courses relative to observably similar white students; this advantage is largely driven by minorities disproportionately attending magnet schools. Finally, recent federal and state efforts aimed at increasing access to advanced courses to poor and minority students appear to have succeeded in raising the share of students who take advanced courses from 2003 to 2006. However, secular trends (or spillovers of the policies to non‐poor, non‐minority students) have spurred faster growth for other students, contributing to widening demographic gaps in these years. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Early‐Life Origins of Life‐Cycle Well‐Being: Research and Policy Implications

Mounting evidence across different disciplines suggests that early‐life conditions can have consequences on individual outcomes throughout the life cycle. Relative to other developed countries, the United States fares poorly on standard indicators of early‐life health, and this disadvantage may have profound consequences not only for population well‐being, but also for economic growth and competitiveness in a global economy. In this paper, we first discuss the research on the strength of the link between early‐life health and adult outcomes, and then provide an evidence‐based review of the effectiveness of existing U.S. policies targeting the early‐life environment. We conclude that there is a robust and economically meaningful relationship between early‐life conditions and well‐being throughout the life cycle, as measured by adult health, educational attainment, labor market attachment, and other indicators of socioeconomic status. However, there is some variation in the degree to which current policies in the United States are effective in improving early‐life conditions. Among existing programs, some of the most effective are the Special Supplemental Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), home visiting with nurse practitioners, and high‐quality, center‐based early‐childhood care and education. In contrast, the evidence on other policies such as prenatal care and family leave is more mixed and limited.     

Growing inequality in black wages in the 1980s and the emergence of an African-American middle class

Much recent scholarship and popular discussion posits a substantial movement of African-American households into the “middle class.” Yet over the course of the 1980s, the proportion of individual black wage-earners receiving “annualized” (work experience-adjusted) wages and salaries in excess of about $35,000—three times the poverty line—fell by 22 percent, even as the share of African-Americans earning below the poverty line increased by a fifth. This was true for all age groups, and even for persons within the black community who had completed four or more years of college. The growth of low wage employment was most pronounced for black men between the ages of 25 and 34, among whom the incidence of below-poverty-level employment doubled. Black women aged 35–54 experienced relatively greater progress than any other part of the African-American community, but their gains lagged far behind those of comparable white women. We speculate on possible explanations for these developments, on the basis of which a potential public policy agenda is examined.     

Participation in welfare legislation—A poverty-aware paradigm

Public participation, responsive regulation, and other policy formulations are intended to draw governments down from their ivory towers and into engagement with the people. However, they paint at best, a hazy picture of who “the people” are. This superficial representation is felt, among other collectives, by people living in poverty, who not only face hunger, often accompanied by poorer health and lower life expectancy, but whose social exclusion typically goes unrecognized by the authorities. The legal framing of poverty—and, as a result, states' policy approaches to its alleviation—focuses on the material core, representing a very thin conceptualization that fails to address the social dimension. Furthermore, practical avenues for incorporating citizens' views into lawmaking—which might enrich understanding—are lacking when it comes to people in poverty. Combined with a blatantly hegemonic stance, the resulting ignorance around poverty and “the poor” generates welfare laws that are woefully out of touch with reality, and legislative thinking that perpetuates, rather than alleviates, poverty. This paper seeks to make a twofold contribution: (i) to demonstrate this situation with a deep empirical inquiry into the legislative process of one legal provision within the Israeli welfare law regime, juxtaposed against qualitative field-research findings and (ii) to introduce the inventive and groundbreaking “poverty-aware” paradigm, constructed in social-work discourse, to illuminate and explain the empirical findings and point to potential procedural–institutional reform, to pave the way for poverty-aware legislation.     

Longitudinal outcomes of an early cohort of Ticket to Work participants

Using 2004-2006 National Beneficiary Survey data matched to Social Security administrative data, we follow a cohort of disability beneficiaries participating in the Ticket to Work (TTW) program for several years to assess changes in their service use, health status, employment, and income. About 20 percent of TTW participants achieved employment at levels that would significantly reduce their disability benefits. Another 40 percent achieved some employment success, but the remaining 40 percent reported no earnings during 2003-2005. Use of TTW support services during 2003-2005 was modest. Many participants experienced significant changes in their health status across survey rounds, which might have affected their ability to actively participate in TTW and to become employed. Many also experienced significant employment and income instability. The findings suggest that employment among TTW participants was associated with reduced poverty.     

The Spatial Routines of Daily Life in Low-income Neighbourhoods: Escaping the ‘Local Trap’

Abstract. In recent years, research and policy have become increasingly interested in the relationship between poverty and place. While research has explored the possibility that living in poor places might make people poorer, policy has been drawn to the idea that poverty and social exclusion have their origins in segregated spaces of the poor and excluded. This paper argues that both perspectives fall into the ‘local trap’ of presuming that people living in areas characterised by economic hardship live spatially bounded, neighbourhood-based lives. Drawing on evidence from interviews with 180 people living in six low-income neighbourhoods across the UK, spatial routines of daily life are revealed to extend regularly beyond the residential neighbourhood through processes of engagement, interaction and exchange. This simple but important finding undermines some key presumptions of contemporary policy and points to the need for improvements in the theoretical models underlying analysis of the relationships between poverty and place.     

Inner‐city concentrated poverty and neighborhood distress: 1970 to 1990

Abstract

Tract‐level data from the 1970, 1980, and 1990 censuses of population are used to identify poverty neighborhoods, extreme poverty neighborhoods, distressed neighborhoods, and severely distressed neighborhoods within the nation's 100 largest central cities. Changes in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of these neighborhoods are documented, including racial/ethnic composition; poverty population concentration; school dropout rates; and rates of joblessness, single‐parent households, and welfare receipt.

Results show that despite some encouraging individual city turnarounds in the Northeast (especially in New York, Newark, and Philadelphia), urban poverty concentration and neighborhood distress worsened nationwide between 1980 and 1990. The greatest deterioration occurred in midwestern cities, particularly in Detroit. Southern cities, whose neighborhoods and cities typically improved during the 1970s, slipped during the 1980s; conditions in western cities also deteriorated. Blacks fared worse than whites and Hispanics during the 1980s in terms of increased concentration of poor in poverty tracts and distressed urban neighborhoods.     

Long‐Run Labor Market Effects of the Job Corps Program: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Experiment

Job Corps is the nation's largest and most comprehensive career technical training and education program for at‐risk youth ages 16 to 24. Using the sample from a large‐scale experiment of the program from the mid‐1990s, this article uses tax data through 2015 (20 years later) to examine long‐term labor market impacts. The study finds some long‐term beneficial effects for the older students, with employment gains of 4 percentage points, 40 percent reductions in disability benefit receipt, and 10 percent increases in tax filing rates in 2015. For these students, program benefits exceeded program costs from the social perspective. This study is the first to establish that a national program for disconnected youth can produce long‐term labor market gains, and can be a positive investment made for society. The results suggest that intensive, comprehensive services that focus on developing both cognitive and noncognitive skills are important for improving labor market prospects for this population.     

Identifying neighborhood thresholds: An empirical exploration

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the threshold‐like effects of four aspects of neighborhood environment: poverty rate, adult nonemployment rate, female headship rate for families with children, and secondary school dropout rate. We used a sample consisting of virtually all census tracts from U.S. metropolitan areas. The relationship between the value of numerous neighborhood indicators in 1980 and subsequent changes in each of the four dimensions of neighborhood quality of family life from 1980 to 1990 was evaluated statistically using a regression model with a spline specification to test for nonlinear, threshold‐like processes.

Stressing the exploratory nature of the study, we find evidence of threshold‐like effects in an endodynamic relationship (poverty rate and subsequent changes in that rate), and in exodynamic relationships (occupational status and rental rates and subsequent changes in several neighborhood quality indicators). Implications for research and a spatially targeted neighborhood reinvestment policy are derived from the analysis.     

The development and history of the poverty thresholds.

In recent years there has been renewed interest in the United States in the definition and measurement of poverty. In early 1992, the Committee on National Statistics of the National Academy of Sciences began a 30-month study requested by Congress that includes an examination of statistical issues involved in measuring and understanding poverty. Some 2 years earlier, in January 1990, the Administration had approved an initiative on improving the quality of economic statistics. The current poverty measure was one of several dozen statistical series examined as part of that initiative. In April 1990, Urban Institute economist Patricia Ruggles published a book that urged the revision of the poverty line to reflect changes in consumption patterns and changing concepts of what constitutes a minimally adequate standard of living. In July 1990, two private organizations concerned with the poor and the elderly issued a report reviewing current poverty measurement procedures and describing a Gallup poll in which a nationally representative sample of Americans set an average dollar figure for the poverty line that was higher than the current official poverty line. In view of these and other examples, it may be useful to reexamine the development and subsequent history of the current official poverty thresholds.