战后日本在亚太地区的战略选择

战后日本选择在亚太地区推行重振战略、大国战略和拓展战略,逐步减轻战后体制束缚,恢复亚太强国地位,进而掠夺发展空间。三步战略目标明确、实施有序,相互衔接、融为一体,帮助日本洗脱战争罪责,骗取国际信任,攫取发展资源。这其中饱含了日本政府的政治谋略,具有很强的隐蔽性和迷惑性。由于日本亚太战略始终偏离正确轨道,并且为转嫁政府执政危机服务,所以很难取得最终胜利。当前中日关系紧张微妙。不能对日本保守政府抱有太多幻想,以防落入圈套,可以尝试联合国际力量,强化战后制裁体制,防止日本重蹈覆辙。     

India and Australia: Security Dynamics in the Asia Pacific

India and Australia are rediscovering the vast potentials of maximizing mutual benefits that are inherent in their complementary economies. There is also a great deal of convergence of interests in the strategic domain. As an emerging power, India's profile has attracted attention by countries in the Asia Pacific region, which tended to neglect it in the past. The rise of China and its assertive stances have created an element of uneasiness in the region. Its military modernization and beefing up of naval capability are suspected to be behind enhancing its power projection capability.

The strategic significance of the Indian Ocean for the region is huge. The region's growth is inextricably linked to the Indian Ocean. The littoral states in the region are home to 2.6 billion people, almost 40% of the world's population. The Indian Ocean is the world's third largest body of water, and the world's leading energy and trade seaway. The volume of global trade brings with it the re-emerging problems of terrorism and piracy, a shared policing challenge for all littoral states. The security of the Indian Ocean goes to the heart of both India's and Australia's national interests.     

重塑规则还是整合地缘:亚太经济深度一体化的模式之争

亚太经济合作已经进入深度一体化阶段,在这一进程中出现了美国"自上而下"的"规则重塑型"模式与中国"自下而上"的"地缘整合型"模式的竞争,二者在整合平台、覆盖范围、政策导向重点、战略依托和路径取向等方面都存在着巨大的差异。在"规则重塑型"模式的冲击下,升级中国—东盟自贸区应尽量避免大幅提高制度化水平和规则约束力,只能适当扩大规则覆盖面、增强政策协调性,同时着重推进务实的功能性建设,灵活运用多层次机制,深入整合地缘经济关系,持久蓄积影响力并向周边持续纵深辐射,以此构建中国与东盟各国的利益共同体。     

Hopeful uncertainty: Asia‐Pacific security in transition

Matake Kamiya chides Western security experts for taking an overly pessimistic view of the security environment in the Asia‐Pacific region. While admitting that there are many potential trouble spots, Kamiya asserts there are also many positive factors that point to peace, including the growing economic strength of, and cooperation between, countries in the region. The original version of this paper was prepared while Kamiya served as a distinguished research fellow at the Centre for Strategic Studies, New Zealand, from August 1994 to March 1995. Kamiya is associate professor of international relations at Japan's National Defense Academy.     

Asia‐Pacific economic cooperation: Progress and prospects

Secretary of Foreign Affairs Domingo L. Siazon Jr. of the Philippines discusses the Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum's path to the present, and charts a map for its future. Siazon sees the importance of promoting greater private‐sector involvement in APEC and enhancing economic cooperation among member economies. Siazon discusses the special significance of this year's meetings to be held at Subic Bay in the Philippines, the former home of the US Pacific Fleet and now a growing industrial and tourism center. Pursuing APEC's free‐trade goals, he says, holds the brightest economic future for the Philippines and the region.     

Video Resource Guide for Asia and the Pacific

Abstract

This is an initial listing of videos and films. Additions or corrections would be appreciated. Entries are in alphabetical order under country headings, with topical sections at the end of the guide.     

New Security Dimensions in the Asia–Pacific

The rise of China provides a major challenge to the United States, the undisputed hegemon in the Asia-Pacific region since the second world war. This development provides regional states with an opportunity to shape the regional security architecture by adopting an inclusive approach to China. The role of the Association of Southeast Asian States (ASEAN) tends to be under-estimated by Western scholars who often see the European model as the only approach to regional integration. This paper discusses the significant achievements of ASEAN in serving as a catalyst for the establishment of regional institutions. Such institutions could serve as instruments for the management of China's relations with Japan and India. It is contended that the emergence of Asian powers, especially China, will result in a challenge to the Washington Consensus of Western norms and values focusing on individual rights which have governed international institutions. The rise of China is likely to see the application of a Beijing Consensus emphasising the balance between individual rights and social obligations, which would resonate positively in the region. In the twenty-first century, global institutions will need to reflect the norms, values and practices of global society and not just Atlantic perspectives.     

Arms transfer and the Asia‐Pacific region

Asia's share in total global arms imports has been increasing annually. Since 1988, it has exceeded that of the Middle East, making this region the second largest arms market after Europe. Professor Takahiro Shinyo of the Osaka School of International Public Policy notes that new threat perceptions, sources of regional instability, and modernization drives by ASEAN militaries have created an Asia‐Pacific imperative for greater transparency, self‐restraint, and cooperation in the security field. He warns that dialogue alone will not suffice and proposes concrete measures to stem the arms flow, including full ARF participation in the UN Conventional Arms Register.     

"中国的崛起与变化中的亚太秩序"研讨会在昆明召开

20 0 3年 3月 2 1日至 2 3日 ,由中国社会科学院美国研究所与日本国际交流中心 (JCIE)联合主办的“中国的崛起与变化中的亚太秩序”国际学术研讨会在昆明举行。来自中、美、日、东南亚 ,以及加拿大、澳大利亚等国的近 4 0位国际问题学者参加了会议 ,其中包括中国社会科学院科研局和美国所的有关领导、日本国际交流中心理事长山本正、美国东西方中心主任查尔斯·莫里森 ,以及各国一些著名中国问题和国际问题专家。与会者就近年来中国的政治、经济和社会发展、政策变化及包括美、加、澳等国在内的亚太地区各国对此的看法和政策调整等问题进…     

Periodical Publications from and about Asia and the Pacific

Abstract

The periodicals selected to be included in this annotated guide consist, for the most part, of lesser known magazines and newsletters from nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) based in or concerned with the Asia and Pacific regions. Deliberately excluded from the guide (for reasons of space only) are mainstream newsmagazines and journals that are academic in orientation or origin. Standard reference guides to periodical literature offer sufficient information about serial publications in these categories. The effort here is to introduce periodicals that may not be as well-known or as readily accessible to readers of the Bulletin of Concerned Asian Scholars as the more established journals, magazines, and other literature in the field.     

能力分配、制度共容性和战略关注度:冷战后亚太多边经贸合作制度构建的成败分析

冷战结束后,亚太地区以经济合作制度为主的各类制度建设迅速发展,并嵌入到地区秩序中,这些制度的发展经历了不同的历程,产生了不同的结果。从制度变迁理论的视角来看,地区制度的发展历程可以分为制度需求、制度构建和制度的维持与深化三个阶段,不同因素在各阶段发挥的作用不同。具体而言,在亚太地区,能力分配、制度共容性和霸权国对地区的战略关注度这三个变量对于地区经贸合作制度构建的成败起到了决定性的影响。文章将后冷战时期的亚太制度变迁分为四个时期,通过考察各个时期内最具代表性的制度来检验上述理论假设。文章认为,当地区内大国力量对比悬殊时,只有同时具备较高的霸权国战略关注度和较强的制度共容性时,地区合作制度的构建才能成功;当地区内力量对比接近时,地区合作的路径会趋于多元化,具备较高的霸权国战略关注度或具有较高共容性的地区合作制度的构建都可以获得成功。因此对于中国而言,在霸权国对地区合作的战略关注度下降和大国力量对比接近时,要推动当前地区经济合作,需要保持战略定力,更多着眼于地区合作中的互利共赢。     

东亚华商网络的发展趋势--以海外华资在中国大陆的投资为例

本文概述了海外华商网络的形成和发展,指出在海外华商与中国大陆日益加深经济整合的同时,中国大陆在该网络中的核心地位日趋明显。以中国大陆为核心的海外华商网络将在东亚经济一体化进程中发挥更大的作用。     

Chinese Security in the Post-11 September World: Implications for Asia and the Pacific

In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 and the Bush administration's policy changes, Chinese strategic specialists are engaged in a wide ranging and increasingly public debate over China's national security strategies and priorities. Although senior leaders continue to argue that most trends remain favorable for Chinese security interests, far more cautionary assessments are also being voiced. In this article, Jonathan D. Pollack, chairman of the Strategic Research Department, US Naval War College, points out that the increased complexity and differentiation in Chinese policymaking reveals multiple trends at work. Even as Chinese policymakers emphasize their keen desire to reinforce regional stability, the longer-term picture remains clouded, from the Taiwan straits to the Korean peninsula to Central Asia to future developments in nuclear weapons policy. Pollack argues that there is a compelling need to invigorate exchanges between senior officials in Beijing, Washington, Tokyo and other major capitals, lest China and other states undertake policies that undermine the prospects for long term regional stability and security.     

东亚经济区域化:"轴心"的缺失与重构

制度导向型区域经济一体化中,"轴心"意义重大.战后地缘政治在欧洲促成了"法德轴心"的形成,在亚洲则未能形成"轴心",以至欧亚经济区域化的路径和水平差异巨大.目前,东亚经济区域化仍处在合作层面,但已出现整合趋势.本文从"共同体"式的区域经济一体化模式的一般特征出发,探讨了重构东亚区域经济整合"轴心"的难点和可能.     

Russia in the Asia–Pacific: The beginning of a new era?

This article discusses significant changes in Russia and the surrounding world during the last several years. The author argues that these changes created major preconditions for the beginning of a new era in relations between Russia and Northeast Asian countries, which will boost a breakthrough in the field of energy cooperation and might add a “second wing” to the idea of regionalism in Northeast Asia.     

Economic cooperation and integration in East Asia

Recent developments in the relationship between East Asian countries and prospects for further cooperation are discussed, together with analysis of the driving forces for proliferation of free trade areas (FTAs) and preferential trade arrangements(PTAs), as well as the different types of arrangements. The evolution of the key features of such economic cooperation agreements are outlined and the challenges and issues facing more extensive East Asian economic integration are reviewed. The paper concludes with recommendations for bringing about a viable, effective East Asian economic community that will benefit member countries and contribute positively to global trade.     

The Japan‐US alliance and the Asia‐Pacific region

For the past fifty years the Japan‐US alliance has provided the framework for Asia‐Pacific security, says Jusuf Wanandi, Chairman of the Centre for Strategic International Studies in Indonesia and former research fellow at IIPS. The region's political and economic dynamics are changing, Wanandi says, and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) supports an increased Japanese security role, with regional organizations acting as a conduit. But before Japan will win the confidence of some Asian neighbors, he says, Japan must open its economy, reform its domestic politics, and come to terms with its militaristic past.     

An Enigma that is South Asia: India versus the Region

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is now 28 years old, yet its success is nominal. That more important bilateral issues are discussed on the sidelines of SAARC Summits proves the point. Intra-regional trade is still miniscule compared to the region's overall share in the world trade. The biggest defaulter is India, the most prominent member of the group. The purpose of this paper is first to raise the question whether South Asia qualifies to be called a region, and second to argue that, given the problems it faces with most of its neighbours, India is forced to conclude that SAARC matters the least for it. For economic and strategic reasons, India's interests lie in global networking and in a balanced relationship with China. Since Chinese military, diplomatic, and economic presence in South Asia poaches into India's perceived sphere of influence, India's interest in SAARC is limited to that context for otherwise it neither provides large markets for India nor does it contribute to India's strategic policy. Inversely, such a situation justifies India's neighbours playing the China card to bargain with India though that card its losing its value. To buttress our arguments we have drawn from the region's historical experiences as well as from recent developments in international and South Asian politics, including domestic politics.     

Rescaling to the Indo-Pacific: From Economic to Security-Driven Regionalism in Asia

The ‘Indo-Pacific’ has emerged as the newest addition to the lexicon of Asian regionalism. Conceived of as the conjunction of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, it reflects the belief that maritime linkages require extending Asian regionalism westwards to include countries on the Indian Ocean rim. It also competes with the longstanding ‘Asia-Pacific’ conceptualisation of the region, and four governments—Australia, India, Japan and the USA—have adopted it into their foreign policies. Much of the debate on the Indo-Pacific focusses on how it institutionally ‘rescales’ Asian regionalism through the incorporation of Indian Ocean states. This article considers the functional rescaling that attends this process: namely, what kind of regionalism is implied by the Indo-Pacific concept? It argues that the Indo-Pacific is a security-focussed regional project, reflecting the desire of its proponents to form a quadrilateral bloc to resist China’s growing maritime assertiveness. This security region is radically different from the Asia-Pacific concept, where regionalism was primarily driven by economic integration and cooperation. The Indo-Pacific thus marks a more contested period in Asia’s international politics, where the functional purpose of regional cooperation is being reoriented from economic- to security-focussed agendas.