Energy Security and Germany's Response to Russian Revisionism: The Dangers of Civilian Power

This article examines the impact of German dependence on Russian gas supplies for Europe's ability to apply effective sanctions against Russia. It demonstrates that by focusing on the environmental dimensions of energy policy and a policy of rapprochement with Russia, Germany has neglected the security of supply implications of its dependence on Russian gas. The article argues that Germany's excessive energy dependence on Russia has limited the ability of the EU to challenge Russian revisionism by targeting its energy sector through sanctions. The article makes a number of energy policy recommendations which will be essential for Germany to avoid undue Russian influence on its foreign and security policies. The article concludes by exploring the utility of Neoclassical Realism in understanding Germany's approach to energy security. In doing so it highlights the dangers of allowing ideology to cloud a sober assessment of the imperatives of the balance of theat.     

Τhe energy parameters of the Russian–Ukrainian–EU impasse: dependencies,sanctions and the rise of ‘Turkish Stream’

The overwhelming dependency of Ukraine on Russian energy and the lack of any short-to-medium term diversification of European Union (EU) oil and gas supplies away from Moscow dictate a cooperative approach vis-à-vis Russia in dealing with the Ukrainian crisis. The EU is unable to impose any more severe sanctions on Russia’s energy industry without provoking a major negative impact on its own troubled economy. The continuation of the current confrontational friction in EU–Russian energy relations will most likely consolidate Russia’s decision to seek the elimination of its gas transit dependence on Ukraine after 2020. Such a target will be very difficult to attain by the end of this decade, even if Russia will be able to partly replace the now abandoned South Stream project with Turkish Stream.     

Russia,the death penalty,and Europe: the ambiguities of influence

Studies of capital punishment worldwide investigate how international influence affects the death penalty. We analyze European influence on the death penalty in Russia over the imperial, Soviet, and post-Soviet periods, using two parameters: the changing mechanisms of influence in each period and the death penalty's significance in the broader spectrum of punitive violence. On the first parameter, in the tsarist period, European influence on Russian policy was “productive” – exercised through prestige, moral suasion, and “diffusion.” In the Soviet period, European influence was blocked. In the post-Soviet period, European influence is coercive, as the Council of Europe has unsuccessfully sought to compel Russia to abolish its death penalty. On the second parameter, the death penalty in Russia has always been only one of many forms of state-sanctioned punitive killing. In consequence, the Council's involvement in Russia's death penalty has produced an incoherent policy outcome and has entangled the Council in Russia's authoritarian politics. Russia thus exemplifies the hazards of external involvement in death penalty abolition.     

从“北溪-2”项目看德俄关系及俄美欧三方博弈

作为两个重要的地区大国,德国与俄罗斯的关系对彼此和欧洲都有着重要影响。在双边关系中,能源因素因其对国民经济生产的决定性意义长期发挥着“稳定器”的作用。2018年9月,由德俄牵头,法国、奥地利与荷兰合资建造的“北溪-2”天然气管道项目正式动工铺设。该项目将使输往欧洲的俄罗斯天然气绕开乌克兰,经过波罗的海海底直接连通德俄两国,德国由此成为俄罗斯天然气最重要的转运国。此举虽然在双边层面上保证了德俄的能源经济安全,但在多边层面却招致欧盟、美国等多方反对。因担心会进一步加深对俄罗斯能源的依赖,欧盟委员会及中东欧国家欲诉诸法律对该项目施以约束;美国在制裁项目企业的同时转而向波兰、乌克兰等国出口液化天然气,在利用政治机遇抢占欧洲市场的同时试图制衡俄罗斯的影响力。在多方力量博弈中,德国需要在平衡俄美欧关系中付出更多努力。     

Russia’s use of semi-state security forces: the case of the Wagner Group

This article provides a definitive, in-depth case-study, using primarily Russian sources, of Russia’s use of the informal “Wagner Group” private military company (PMC) and its antecedents (from 2012 to 2018) in Nigeria, Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, Syria, Sudan, and the Central African Republic. It explores why Russia has used this group without legalizing its existence or role. While Wagner is sometimes used in the same ways that other rational states use PMCs, corrupt informal networks tied to the Russian regime have also used it in ways that are not typical of other strong states and that potentially undermine Russian security interests. Understanding the Wagner Group is interesting for comparative academic studies of PMCs, because Wagner doesn’t fit well any existing PMC category or template in the literature. It is also crucial for US and allied policy analysts attempting to attribute “Russian” actions in foreign theaters.     

The three colors of Novorossiya,or the Russian nationalist mythmaking of the Ukrainian crisis

While the annexation of Crimea boosted Putin's popularity at home, the Donbas insurgency shattered the domestic ideological status quo. The Kremlin's position appeared somehow hesitant, fostering the resentment of Russian nationalist circles that were hoping for a second annexation. In this article, I explore the term Novorossiya as a live mythmaking process orchestrated by different Russian nationalist circles to justify the Donbas insurgency. The powerful pull of Novorossiya rests on its dual meaning in announcing the birth of a New Russia geographically and metaphorically. It is both a promised land to be added to Russia and an anticipation of Russia's own transformation. As such, Novorossiya provides for an exceptional convergence of three underlying ideological paradigms – “red” (Soviet), “white” (Orthodox), and “brown” (Fascist). The Novorossiya storyline validates a new kind of geopolitical adventurism and blurs the boundaries, both territorial and imaginary, of the Russian state.     

Contested policymaking in Russia: industry,environment, and the “best available technology” debate

The centralized nature of the Russian political system and the dominance of the executive can obscure the role played by other actors in the policymaking process. This article aims to further our understanding of the Russian policy process by examining the ability of industry to determine policy outcomes. An example from the environmental policy process concerning the introduction of the “best available technology” will be presented. This highly contested policy led to significant opposition from industry groups and disputes between government actors. The case demonstrates that industrial interests in Russia are able to exert considerable influence on the policy process; however, this influence is not absolute and requires closer scrutiny. Political leadership was found to be an important factor in achieving policy outcomes. However, for the most part, the policy process was found to be heavily bureaucratized, and dominated by a range of competing interests.     

The Great Game and the evolving nature of political talk shows on Russian television

ABSTRACT

Much has been written about the specific way in which the Russian government under President Vladimir V. Putin uses television to propagate pro-government views on domestic and international politics by influencing what is aired. This paper examines the first season of The Great Game (Bol’shaya Igra in Russian), a television talk show that appears on Russia’s national television network Channel One, as an example of the government’s effort to shape public opinion. A content analysis suggests The Great Game differs from the typical Russian talk show genre in that it delivers political messages without much entertainment, providing cerebral discussions of issues that nonetheless back up all nine of the core “neoconservative” concepts underlying recent Russian political strategy. This suggests that the Russian government and television executives innovate to determine how best to use television to win over skeptical citizens to the Kremlin’s point of view.     

Understanding Russia’s energy turn to China: domestic narratives and national identity priorities

This study investigates whether, as part of a broader “Asian Energy Pivot,” Russia’s energy giant Gazprom refashioned its export strategy away from Europe, and what impact such a reorientation might have on the EU–Russia gas relationship. It uses four empirical cases to emphasize the domestic movers underlying Russia’s eastward shift in energy trade, developing a constructivist theory rooted in the dynamics of Russia’s dominant public narrative and the contours of domestic politics. It argues that Russia’s national interests changed as a result of how Russian policy-makers interpreted and reacted to the stand-off with Europe, in response to what they perceived as Europe’s attempt to isolate it economically and geopolitically. Russia’s Eurasianists, who had advocated the notion of a necessary turn to the East for a long time, positioned themselves as norm entrepreneurs and their new interpretation of the preexisting material incentives shaped the future course of action.     

Instrumentalizing the recent past? The new Cold War narrative in Russian public space after 2014

There has been much debate about whether the US and Russia are locked in a new Cold War, but much less attention as to how the term is used in Russian political discourse. Through a close analysis of public statements, I analyze how the Cold War narrative has been used in the Russian public space since 2014, and assess how the “resuscitation” of the Cold War paradigm has been used by Moscow’s political elites, in order to discuss its impact on foreign policy. I document a distinct shift in Russian policymakers’ use of the term in 2016 and trace this shift to domestic political considerations.     

Perviy Kanal's Trotsky and the “Atlanticisation” of Leon Trotsky's Legacy*

Trotsky, an eight-part miniseries made in 2017 for the centenary of the Russian Revolution, has recently been made available on Netflix for global audiences. This article analyses Trotsky through the theoretical lens of neo-Eurasianism, especially as developed by the political theorist Aleksandr Dugin. Dugin's philosophy posits a civilisational divide between the “Atlantic” values of secularism, open markets, cosmopolitanism and sexual profligacy represented by the Anglo-Atlantic cultural sphere, and the “Eurasian” values of authoritarianism, cultural conservatism and religious nationalism present in a revived Russia. I argue that Trotsky's interpretation of Leon Trotsky's legacy reflects the popularisation of Dugin's neo-Eurasianist political philosophy in Russia. The article covers some of the key historical events depicted in Trotsky, discussing their accuracy with reference to existing academic biographies of Leon Trotsky. I then discuss the series’ apparent fixation on the Jewish heritage of Trotsky (who was born Lev Bronstein), which has been the focus of much of the media coverage of the series, before addressing the fraught place that Trotsky occupies in Russian historical memory. I then move on to a discussion of the political philosophy of neo-Eurasianism and its relevance and application to the political climate of modern Russia. Finally, I consider what Dugin has said about Trotsky himself. Despite (or perhaps because of) its distortions of history, the series serves as a fascinating reflection of the values and political climate of modern Russia.     

Nordic-Baltic Interaction in European Union Negotiations: Taking Advantage of Institutionalized Cooperation

Given the long tradition of regional cooperation around the Baltic Sea, one could expect the Nordic-Baltic European Union (EU) members (these countries are known as the NB6; they are Sweden, Demark, Finland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania) to pool power in exerting influence in the EU. By drawing on the empirical evidence from the case studies on the Baltic Sea Strategy, the Stockholm Programme, and the EU climate negotiations, the author explains the mechanisms through which the members of the institutionalized coalition of NB6 interact in pre-negotiation stage in the EU Council, thus enhancing their bargaining power. However, we cannot speak of a permanent regional “bloc” in the EU because of member states’ interest differences.     

Notes and news

Russia and Asia have an ambiguous relationship. More than half of Russia is geographically in Asia and much of its history, too. Peter the Great switched Russia's main focus to Europe. But by the middle of the 19^th century the “Slavophiles” were contesting that “Westernising” view as the Russian Empire expanded. After World War II, the USSR played an important ideological role in Asia, until the failure of the invasion of Afghanistan. The ensuing collapse of the USSR resulted in a smaller, much more “European” Russia, which the West was nonetheless not eager to embrace. Today, the dynamic economies of Asia offer opportunities, not least as a market for Russia's energy exports. But the legacy of Peter the Great lives on.     

Three dilemmas of hybrid regime governance: Russia from Putin to Putin

This article investigates how hybrid regimes supply governance by examining a series of dilemmas (involving elections, the mass media, and state institutions) that their rulers face. The authors demonstrate how regime responses to these dilemmas – typically efforts to maintain control while avoiding outright repression and societal backlash – have negative outcomes, including a weakening of formal institutions, proliferation of “substitutions” (e.g., substitutes for institutions), and increasing centralization and personalization of control. Efforts by Russian leaders to disengage society from the sphere of decision-making entail a significant risk of systemic breakdown in unexpected ways. More specifically, given significantly weakened institutions for interest representation and negotiated compromise, policy-making in the Russian system often amounts to the leadership's best guess (ad hoc manual policy adjustments) as to precisely what society will accept and what it will not, with a significant possibility of miscalculation. Three case studies of the policy-making process are presented: the 2005 cash-for-benefits reform, plans for the development of the Khimki Forest, and changes leading up to and following major public protests in 2011–2012.     

The development of chemical science in Estonia from 1945 to the present

Summary

This study shows that the Baltic peoples acted with much patience in achieving independence and free and democratic states. Their road to independence and international recognition was paved by perestroika and glasnost. Without these developments in the Soviet Union, the attempts to break away would have been crushed as happened in Hungary in 1956 and in Czechoslovakia in 1968. Later on Gorbachev became a major obstacle to the Baltic cause. The Balts had to pursue their goals in spite of resistance from the Soviet leadership.

After independence and international recognition, Estonia and Latvia began to play an active role within the framework of the CSCE. Although the current situation in the very northeastern part of Europe seems to be quiet, one has to reckon with new cleavages and confrontations between the Baltic States and particularly Russia, due to several unresolved problems such as minority policy and Russian military power. The rise of ultranationalist forces in Russia, such as Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democrats, may add to the tense atmosphere in the Baltic region. Further tension could complicate the position of the CSCE regarding the countries concerned. Since the CSCE failed to restore peace and stability in the former Yugoslavia, it might fail in such an explosive area as the Baltic as well. Nevertheless, the CSCE facilitates a forum for peaceful settlement of disputes and therefore provides the chance to use diplomatic measures to prevent the outbreak of a military conflict.     

Russia's energy governance transitions and implications for enhanced cooperation with China,Japan, and South Korea

A Tokyo-based economist and a noted western economic geographer, both specializing in the hydrocarbon resources of Russia, apply the framework of governance studies in an effort to gain a deeper understanding of the recent changes in the country's energy policy-making. The authors argue that, unlike the international relations paradigm prevailing in studies of Russia's energy policy, the country's multiple roles in the international energy arena (as producer, consumer, exporter, importer, and transit state) warrant a more nuanced approach, reflecting Russian energy policy's flexibility over time and diversity across space. This paper endeavors, therefore, to apply a political economy and governance perspective to an understanding of the significant changes in Russia's energy policy-making regarding its dynamic energy relations with the Northeast Asia (NEA; China, Japan, and South Korea). In exploring the complex interactions between Russia's internal energy policy-making and its emerging energy relations in NEA, the authors addresses three key questions, namely: (1) how Russia's Asian energy policy corresponds to its domestic needs, (2) how much coherence in energy governance and cooperation exists between Russia and the Northeast Asian states at the institutional and organizational levels, and (3) the extent to which Russia's expectations for increased energy cooperation with the Northeast Asian states are likely to materialize.     

The file on operation “Priboi”: A re-assessment of the mass deportations of 1949

Abstract

Using information from documents found in the Russian State Military Archives, this article discusses the organization and execution of the Soviet mass deportations from the Baltic States in March 1949 — code-named Operation “Priboi” by the USSR MVD. These findings are presented for the first time in English, in the context both of established historiographical interpretations and recent literature on the deportations. The aim is to encourage a scholarly reassessment of Operation “Priboi” as a crime against humanity perpetrated by the Soviet occupation regime, but supported by indigenous collaborators to a far greater degree than previously assumed.     

The views of the Chinese statesman on the par Eastern problem (1921)

The phrase “The Great Game” was first used in the context of Russia and Central Asia by the ill-fated Captain Conolly in 1840. For Conolly, the game metaphor signified a contest in which the Russians were Britain's potential opponents, while the Central Asians were her immediate ones. Indeed Conolly, like Thorburn, a later writer, seems even to have envisaged Russia as Britain's partner in the work of civilizing Asia. Boulger, tried to use the phrase to signify Anglo-Russian confrontation but interestingly the phrase was little used in the literature on Central Asia until Kipling's “Kim” endowed it with a popularity and the implication of great power rivalry which it had not previously enjoyed. In fact widespread use only came after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, though “The Great Game” is now in ever more frequent use to signify American/Russian rivalry. Kipling's use has triumphed over Conolly's.     

Russian Centrism and Revolutionary Transitions

An American political scientist documents the evolution of the influence during 1992-93 of the Russian centrist organization, Civic Union, interpreting its dynamics with reference to a suggested theory of “peaceful revolutions.” The study is based on extensive and repeated interviews in Russia with leaders of the organization and directors of state enterprises, and on documentary evidence collected in Russia and elsewhere from mid-1992 through September 1993. Included is a review of the centrist orientation towards economic reform, involving rejection of shock therapy, privatization favoring enterprise directors and workers, wage and price controls, and restrictions on foreign investment. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: P21, H11, L33.     

Taking the “Poison Pill”: A Commentary on a Case Study

A prominent American specialist on legal affairs in the former Soviet Union and Russia comments upon a case study focused on managerial strategies to privatize a large industrial conglomerate. Efforts to prevent outsiders from buying the enterprise are likened to “poison pills” used in the United States to thwart hostile corporate takeovers. The commentary includes references to the tradition of corruption in Russian bureaucracy before and after the October Revolution and notes the difficulties encountered by Western lawyers advising foreign investors in recent years. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: K22, P13, P31.