Not to the highest bidder: the failure of incumbency in the Zambian 2011 elections

Incumbent political parties in emerging democracies tend to use clientelism and state resources to mobilise electoral support. In most cases, they go on to win these electoral contests. However, this paper uses the Zambian example to demonstrate that mere incumbency may not always win elections. Despite the advantages of incumbency, the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) lost the 2011 elections to the opposition Patriotic Front (PF). To explain this, the paper argues that the qualities of an incumbent political party matter. For the MMD, the paper identifies three major contextual variables which undermined incumbency: first, the internal long-term but sustained centrifugal conditions which systematically eroded the party’s strength. Second, the public perception of the MMD as a decaying and recalcitrant party which increasingly detached itself from the electorate. Third, the presence of a surging populist, grassroots-based opposition political party.     

Thailand’s urbanized villagers and political polarization

Thailand currently suffers from high levels of political polarization; parties associated with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra have won every election since 2001, based partly on strong support from voters registered in the populous North and Northeast regions. Many of these voters are migrant workers who spend much of their time working in Greater Bangkok, yet remain legal residents of their home provinces. This article argues that Thailand’s political polarization could be reduced if many of these “urbanized villagers” either took up formal residence in the capital city, or were encouraged to share in the creation of new small-scale urban communities in their places of birth.     

2011年大选之后的泰国

泰国2011年大选前的政治格局与他信时期相比并没有太大的改变,因此,完全没有政治经验的英拉的上台也就不会令人感到太意外。但如上届政府一样,英拉上台后面临重重困难。外交方面,英拉政府则表现出色,在短短的时间内构建了包括周边国家、区域大国和国际组织在内的全方位外交体系。     

The rise and decline of the new party: Ideology, resources and the political opportunity structure

This paper analyses the growth and decline of Taiwan's first significant third party, the New Party (NP). The NP won numerous seats in the national parliaments in the mid-1990s and received extensive media attention. However, it has shown a steady electoral decline since the late 1990s. Despite its poor recent election performance, the NP should not be regarded as a failure, as it has actually been remarkably successful at achieving its original objectives. By 2004, the KMT's policy positions had become so close to those of the NP that the NP was prepared to promote a party merger and allow its politicians to stand for election under a KMT banner. I challenge the most common explanation that the NP rose when united and fell when divided by bitter factional struggles. Instead a framework incorporating ideology, resources and political opportunity structure is employed to explain the rise and fall of the NP. I argue that when the NP faced a benign political environment in the mid-1990s, its moderate political message and rich human resources enabled the party to grow rapidly. However, after March 1996, the political environment became progressively more hostile, and as the NP's resources were eroded and wasted and the party moved towards a narrow and extremist political project, the party began its terminal decline. The space for the NP became even more limited after 2000, when party had to face intense competition from a powerful new KMT splinter party, the PFP, and a rejuvenated, united and orthodox KMT.     

印尼2010年政治、经济、外交形势回顾与展望

2010年是苏西洛总统连任后的第一年,多起反腐案件冲击印尼政坛,影响了执政效率,但是印尼政局基本保持稳定;这一年印尼大大小小的自然灾害不断,造成了极大的人员和财产损失,但是印尼经济却呈现稳步增长势头,对外关系良好发展。     

The Gambian 2016 Presidential Election and its Aftermath

This article explores the Gambian presidential election of December 2016, which was very surprisingly won by the leader of an opposition coalition, Adama Barrow, and its extraordinary aftermath. Barrow defeated Yahya Jammeh, who had won the four previous presidential elections, thus ending Jammeh’s 20-year rule of The Gambia, which had been marred by human rights abuses. Jammeh at first accepted the result, but changed his mind a week later, thus triggering a major political crisis. Over the next month, he made various desperate attempts to cling to power, before finally leaving the country on 21 January 2017, when faced with the prospect of being removed by force. Barrow, who had earlier been inaugurated as president, finally returned to Banjul on 26 January to assume office. The article concludes by considering the possible key features of a Barrow presidency and assesses the challenges that he will face.     

Limited freedom and intolerance in Botswana

Botswana has held ten successive formal elections without fail since independence in 1966. The country has transformed itself from one of the poorest countries at independence to an upper middle income one. On the basis of these, Botswana has been regarded as a political and economic model that has been largely praised for the resilience of her democratic institutions, respect for civil liberties, a high degree of political tolerance and an economic success story by African standards. To this extent, Botswana has been perceived as exceptional compared to most African countries. This paper argues that despite having won international acclaim as an African ‘success miracle’, freedom and tolerance in the country exist within the limits set by the state. It is argued that there is limited freedom and growing intolerance of dissenting views by the political leadership. The Botswana state therefore perfectly fits the model of ‘authoritarian liberalism (Good 1996).     

Politik als Markt

In this article, I argue that instead of speculating about voter preference, political actors observe each other in a social role structure in the public sphere. Historically developed social cleavages define the positions in this role structure. The public sphere serves as a stage on which political actors define their roles in relation to each other. I find empirical evidence for this market model by investigating the debate surrounding a reference to God in the European Constitution, a debate that does not fit into the cleavage lines. If the market model for political behavior holds true, political actors won’t be able to articulate positions in the absence of cleavages defining political behavior. In this case, the debate will show symptoms of narrative uncertainty. Consequently political actors will produce narrative chaos and relinquish their role in public communication. As a consequence, they will remain in silence.     

Central-local state contestations and urban management in Zimbabwe

ABSTRACT

Most scholars agree that the character of the urban governance system in Zimbabwe is a reflection of the dominance of one political party, namely, Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). However, the increasingly prominent role of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in urban governance has heralded, since the early 2000s, a period marked by change, contestation and confusion. Simultaneously, the destabilising effect of contested urban governance politics on urban management in Zimbabwe has become entrenched. This article focuses on the interface between urban governance politics and urban management in Zimbabwe in the post-2000 era. It analyses how central government, through the local government ministry, local government statutes and appointed officials, structures, and even destabilises, the administration of urban affairs. The article concludes that urban governance is not merely a site of political contestation, as it has also profoundly influenced and altered the functioning of urban administration in Zimbabwe.     

Mustafa Shu‘a‘iyan and Fada'iyan-i Khalq: Frontal Politics,Stalinism, and the Role of Intellectuals in Iran

This paper presents a glance into the life and times of the forgotten Iranian revolutionary and political theorist, Mustafa Shu‘a‘iyan, and his engagement with the orthodox and militant Iranian Left of the 1970s. A brief biographical sketch situates Shu‘a‘iyan in the context of the leftist groups of his time. In particular, the paper shows how upon his agonizing organizational relationship with the People's Fada'i Guerrillas, he set himself the unenviable task of launching the pathology of Stalinism that dominated the Iranian Left for decades. In this context, his bitter debate with the Fada'i Guerrillas on the role of the intellectuals in revolutionary struggle appears as a step toward unravelling the plagues that have won the Iranian Left its ill repute of being ideologically and organizationally undemocratic.     

Right-Wing Violence in Germany: Assessing the Objectives,Personalities and Terror Trail of the National Socialist Underground and the State's Response to It

In the last five years the forces of organised right-wing extremism have made electoral advances across many states in contemporary Europe. Germany has not been immune and the extreme right party, the National Democratic Party of Germany won its first seat in the European Parliament since 1989. The recent successes of the extreme right pose issues for European society about tolerance and immigration policy, but this scene has also been associated with an upsurge in racially motivated political violence and acts of right-wing terrorism. Much of this violence is perpetrated by small neo-Nazi styled groups. This paper looks at the most notorious and recent of such groups to emerge in Germany, the National Socialist Underground. The paper explores the origins and personalities behind this terror cell, provides derails of its criminal activities and murder spree, and questions why it took so long for the authorities to identify the NSU.     

Contested Resource Extraction,Anti-Corporate Protests and the Politics of Movement Alliance in Bangladesh

Why do activist groups form alliances and why do some alliances later fall apart? This article asks these questions in the context of a popular mobilisation against resource extraction in Bangladesh. It focuses on the dynamics of a strategic alliance between a locally organised community mobilisation against a British mining company and an urban radical activist group, known for its anti-capitalist activism, to explore the subsequent collapse of the alliance and the demobilisation of one group. Based on the qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with activists and organisational documents, the article probes the underlying causes of rupture. Although several individual and organisational factors are identified, it is argued that Bangladesh’s confrontational political culture and its authoritarian party system played a critical role, with local activists vulnerable to co-optation or being silenced by powerful political actors. The article contributes to social movement scholarship by emphasising that specific political cultures can undermine efforts to build strategic alliances between diverse social movement organisations.     

Urban political machines and student politics in “middle” Bangladesh: violent party labor in Rajshahi city

In response to the mostly Dhaka-centered research on student politics in Bangladesh, this article aims to understand political competition, the role of patronage networks, political organizations, violence, and student organizations in the provincial city of Rajshahi. The article explores how student politics in Bangladesh shapes (and is shaped by) the political dynamics in “middle Bangladesh.” Student groups in Bangladesh are closely affiliated to political parties and serve as their most important source for mobilization in a party-political regime commonly referred to as a “partyarchy.” Campus politics is deeply integrated into the urban party-political machine in Rajshahi. Controlling Rajshahi University (RU) provides a steady flow of party workers for the local party machine. Thus, the RU campus is a space for organizing political (and violent) labor as well as an important source of revenue for and the distribution of benefits by local party bosses. The urban party machine, however, is not mechanically held together merely by the dispensation of inducements – instead, it is more chaotic and contingent on a form of strategic ambiguity that disguises the structuring effects of patronage power that keeps members motivated and engaged.     

Changes in the handling of corruption scandals in Japan since 1994

Over the last fifty years, the Japanese political landscape has been shaken from time to time by the exposure of corruption scandals. In 1993, a multiparty coalition won government in Japan and initiated a package of reform legislation that was passed by the Diet in 1994. The system of legal controls was tightened, penalties for wrongdoing were increased, and the flow of money in politics was made more transparent. However, after more than five years of debate about reform and putting an end to money politics, corruption is still prominent in Japanese politics, and the number of corruption scandals even seems to be growing. Dr. Verena Blechinger of the German Institute for Japanese Studies analyzes how corruption scandals were handled up till 1993, and how this has changed since. She argues that the process of political reform since 1994 has brought about change in the structural framework of the Japanese political system which has caused a shift in relations between the three main political elite groups.     

Why the CCM won't lose: the roots of single-party dominance in Tanzania

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the factors contributing to single-party dominance in Tanzania. Despite the fact that Tanzania has had a multi-party democracy since 1995, the party which governed during single-party rule, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has won the vast majority of seats in the National Assembly in the first four multi-party elections. In order to understand the CCM's grip on power, this article analyses the results of a survey conducted amongst subsistence farmers in Tanzania, which provides information on farmers’ livelihood conditions, access to media and political views, and hence provides insight into the preferences underlying voting behaviour. It discusses the dominant reasons for CCM support, as well as the characteristics of farmers who are more likely to support an opposition party. It concludes by discussing possible policy options for enhancing political competition in Tanzania.     

Social Movements,Party Organization,and Populism: Insights from the Bolivian MAS

The Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) emerged in Bolivia's Chapare region in the 1990s. Born of a rural social movement of coca growers, it spread to the cities and became the country's dominant political force as its leader, Evo Morales, was elected to the presidency in 2005. This article argues that the MAS is a hybrid organization whose electoral success has been contingent on the construction of a strong rural‐urban coalition, built on the basis of different linkages between the MAS and organized popular constituencies in rural and urban areas. Whereas the MAS's rural origins gave rise to grassroots control over the leadership, its expansion to urban areas has fostered the emergence of top‐down mobilization strategies. The analysis also reveals how much popular sectors allied with the MAS have pressured the Morales government from below and held it accountable to societal demands.     

Moldova Between Europe and Russia: Inoculating Against the Colored Contagion?

In the elections of March 6, 2005, the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) won re-election in an OSCE-approved parliamentary vote lacking large-scale electoral fraud and widespread popular mobilization. Grounding their analysis in the political science literature on "colored" revolutions, interviews, and news reports, two political scientists examine this outcome, asking why a colored revolution did not occur in Moldova. Moldova's "orange evolution" is analyzed in terms of structural preconditions and catalytic factors for colored revolutions as well as broader questions about possible paths out of the patronal and patrimonial forms of government dominating the CIS.     

‘Things are not working now’: poverty,food insecurity and perceptions of corruption in urban Malawi

ABSTRACT

Malawi is one of the world's least urbanised countries, but its cities are growing rapidly and poverty in urban Malawi is becoming a prominent political issue. Food insecurity is a widespread manifestation of urban poverty in Africa, especially in informal settlements. This article is based on in-depth interviews with food insecure residents of Lilongwe’s informal settlements who, when asked why they were food insecure, overwhelmingly pointed to the Cashgate corruption scandal as a cause. There have been many political corruption scandals in Malawi, but the Cashgate scandal, which was revealed in September 2013 and reverberated throughout the political culture, has been among the most prominent and consequential of these scandals. The article seeks to contribute to literature on the political dimensions of urban food security in Africa while also presenting a way of understanding corruption from the point of view of vulnerable people whose lives have been directly and indirectly affected.     

Taking the bait: Maoists and the democratic lure in Nepal

After leading a tumultuous revolutionary people's war for a decade, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has slithered into a peace process and is being egged on to put the revolution to the vote. Maoists themselves are sending mixed signals about whether or not they are going to take the democratic bait to save the “beautiful” democratic, peace process from the “beastly” people's war, urban insurrection and revolution. My contention is that unless the lie of the liberal political process is identified in its most democratic, free and fair forms and not just in its secret, conspiratorial underside, the Maoists might be lured into an unbalanced democratic game. The article argues that the Maoists were not just pushed into this political process by force of circumstance, as the best possible option, “given the international and national situation,” but it seems to follow from their flawed understanding that the present political process constitutes a progressive phase in the path to a New Democratic society. The Maoists are, of course, not abandoning the revolution as such but they are possibly metamorphosing from revolution-embodied to speaking in the name of the revolution – perhaps with the added risk of transforming the revolution itself to just a name.