Why are highly informed citizens sceptical of referenda?

Past work on attitudes toward the use of referenda finds that the most politically informed citizens are more sceptical of its use than their less informed counterparts. An intriguing tension presents itself in that those citizens who may be best equipped for referendum voting, the highly informed and politically sophisticated, are the least likely to support the use of this tool of direct democracy. Using data from Canadian Election Studies, we consider three explanations for relative referenda scepticism among political sophisticates. Our analyses provide evidence to support a confidence in government explanation and a concern for minority rights explanation, but not an incompetent public explanation – a curious finding considering the centrality of citizen competence in the theoretical literature on referenda.     

The partisan heuristic and the voters’ knowledge: The essential role of the information environment

The low-information rationality theory expects voters with low political knowledge to make more use of the partisan heuristic than those with high knowledge. However, empirical studies on decision making in direct democracy observe a positive correlation between political knowledge and the use of party cues. We resolve this tension between theory and empirical evidence by demonstrating that the relationship between political knowledge and the use of party cues is conditional on the information environment. We provide evidence for this hypothesis by exploiting a natural experiment in Switzerland and analyze a large variety of direct democratic votes. The results show that voters with lower levels of political knowledge tend to align less with their preferred party because they often have a wrong perception of their preferred party’s vote recommendation. However, if information on parties’ position is easily available, their vote choice is at least as much in line with their preferred party as among those with high knowledge. This suggests that in such an information environment voters with low political knowledge strongly rely on the partisan heuristic. Our research note supports the low-information rationality theory and this way contributes to the literature on the quality of political opinion formation and the political psychology of reasoning and decision making.     

资本主义代议制民主政治制度的元批判——马克思《路易·波拿巴的雾月十八日》新释

《路易·波拿巴的雾月十八日》是多个学科公认的经典名著。但国内外学者对其的解读却往往囿于各自的学科意识,忽视了其作为一篇时事政治评论的创作初衷。基于政治事件史的视角,以马克思《资本论》中成熟的思想作为分析的出发点,能发现马克思在对阶级斗争和国家原理的分析过程中还揭示出了资本主义代议制民主政治制度的本质性缺陷,即"代表"的分裂问题;制度本身无法避免成为保守势力倒转历史车轮的工具;自由主义与民主主义无休止的斗争。这些缺陷使得资本主义国家在周期性经济危机的影响下一直无法摆脱政治困境的周期性反复。当代随着经济危机的反复爆发与萧条的普遍蔓延,各种"煽动者"又开始普遍在资本主义国家政坛上崭露头角,并导致了一系列"黑天鹅"事件的发生。此时重温《路易·波拿巴的雾月十八日》更应别有一番意趣。     

Rejecting representation? Party systems and popular support for referendums in Europe

Under what conditions do citizens favor deciding political issues by popular vote? Models of support for popular vote processes usually consider the influence of individual attitudes such as political trust and interest in politics. But much less is known about the effect of institutional variables on support for popular vote processes. This article builds on research showing that disaffection with elected officials shapes support for referendums by considering the influence of the party system. First, an analysis of multilevel data from twenty-four European democracies indicates that individuals are more supportive of referendums in countries with fewer effective political parties. Second, a mediation analysis provides evidence that the number of parties influences referendum support through individual-level political trust and external efficacy. Where there are fewer viable parties, feelings that elected officials are unresponsive tend to increase popular support for referendums. These findings suggest a trade-off between available representation by political parties and support for direct influence over public policy.     

How Initiatives Don’t Always Make Citizens: Ballot Initiatives in the American States, 1978–2004

Advocates claim that when citizens can make law through voter initiatives, they become better citizens. This paper puts that claim into context. Using data from the Current Population Survey November Supplement and American National Election Studies for each election between 1978 and 2004, it demonstrates that voter initiatives in the American states have limited effects on turnout, and on political knowledge and efficacy. Initiatives increase voters’ likelihood of turning out to vote in six of seven midterm elections under study, but show no effect on turnout at presidential elections. For knowledge among non-voters and for political efficacy among all respondents, the results show null effects; for knowledge among voters, they indicate modest effects. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Direct Democracy and Political Efficacy Reconsidered

Some studies have contended that direct democracy has secondary benefits unrelated to its impact on policy. In particular, recent scholarship claims that the American ballot initiative process enhances political efficacy. We began with concerns about the logic and empirical methods underlying this conclusion. We connect this research to the broader political psychology literature and in doing so find little reason to expect a positive relationship between direct democracy and efficacy. Our other contribution is to subject the empirical claim to more extensive testing. In contrast to prior research, we draw from multiple data sources and consider sampling methods. The results consistently fail to indicate that direct democracy generally enhances political efficacy. We find cause for skepticism about the secondary benefits of the ballot initiative process.

科学发展观指导下的大学生思想政治教育方法创新

2004年10月,中共中央国务院发出《关于进一步加强和改进思想政治教育的意见》,强调指出,大学生是十分宝贵的人才资源,是民族的希望,是祖国的未来。加强和改进大学生思想政治教育,提高他们的思想政冶素质,探索大学生思想政治教育的方法,把他们培养成中国特色社会主义事业的建设者和接班人,加快推进社会主义现代化的宏伟目标,确保中国特色社会主义事业兴旺发达,具有重大而深远的战略意义。     

论高校学生思想政治教育中的“二元对立”及其超越

思想政治教育是促进高校学生全面发展的重要途径。在当代,随着中国社会转型期的到来,高校学生思想政治教育所处的环境发生了很大的变化,其中,有机遇也有挑战。直面高校学生思想政治教育中的困境、剖析背后的原因并在原有基础上实现超越,对于增进高校学生思想政治教育发展,增强高校学生思想政治教育的针对性、实效性有重大意义。     

How governing experience conditions winner-loser effects. An empirical analysis of the satisfaction with democracy in Spain after 2011 elections

Research has shown that those who win an election are more satisfied with democracy than those who lost. The current study explores this winner/loser gap using survey data from the 2011 Spanish general election. The study assumes that there are different losers. The results indicate that citizen satisfaction with democracy shows a negative relationship with parties that are consistently unable to obtain office. The implication is that the effects of the winner-loser effects are much smaller within the group of parties that have previous experience in government. Finally, I report and independent effect that citizengovernment policy proximity boosts satisfaction with democracy.     

Differentiating winners: How elections affect satisfaction with democracy

Previous research indicates that supporting a winning party in an election boosts satisfaction with democracy, but does not fully or adequately test the mechanisms behind this relationship. Using original survey data, we make a contribution on three fronts. First, we inquire what winning (or losing) an election really means in terms of the performance of one’s preferred party. Second, we employ panel data, which helps to determine whether an election outcome truly impacts satisfaction levels. Third, we examine the breadth of electoral victory, testing whether the satisfaction boost from a regional victory extends to the national and supranational levels. Findings indicate that the inclusion of one’s selected party in government is the most important factor for satisfaction with democracy, which attests to the importance of policy considerations in engendering satisfaction. In addition, winning a regional election strengthens satisfaction beyond the regional level, which indicates that the mere experience of being a “winner” also works to increase satisfaction.     

Understanding unequal turnout: Education and voting in comparative perspective

Well-educated citizens vote more frequently than the poorly educated in some countries, including the USA. However, in many countries, no such differences are observed. One classical explanation of the presence or absence of this inequality in voting is that the strength of left-wing forces sharpens or reduces it. An alternative explanation is that some institutional arrangements and contextual features disproportionately affect the voter participation of some individuals depending on their resources, thus shaping turnout inequality. These theories are tested using multilevel modeling with data from 28 advanced industrial democracies. Compulsory voting reduces inequalities because under this system quasi-universal turnout is achieved. In addition, the poorly educated vote more frequently when the voting procedure is easy and when there are few political parties, thus reducing turnout inequality. However, strong left-wing parties and trade unions are not associated with more equal turnout.     

Democracy in an Age of Tragedy: Democracy,Tragedy and Paradox

Abstract

Democracy and tragedy captured a delicate poise in ancient Athens. While many today perceive democracy as a finite, unquestionable and almost procedural form of governance that glorifies equality and liberty for their own sake, the Athenians saw it as so much more. Beyond the burgeoning equality and liberty, which were but fronts for a deeper goal, finitude, unimpeachability and procedural norms were constantly contradicted by boundlessness, subversion and disarray. In such a world, where certainty and immortality were luxuries beyond the reach of humankind, tragedy gave comfort and inspired greatness. The purpose of this article is to draw explicit links between democracy, tragedy and paradox. Given that tragedy's political ascendancy coincided with the birth of democracy in ancient Athens, we may assume that democracy was somehow, if not implicitly, tragic. But what was it that made democracy and tragedy speak so intimately to each other and to the Athenians who created them? The answer, at least the one which this article entertains, is paradox.     

Does E-Voting matter for turnout,and to whom?

Empirical evidence suggests that e-voting has no measurable effects on turnout. However, existing studies did (or could) not look at e-voting effects on the individual level. We innovate by analyzing whether and to what extent the availability of e-voting fosters turnout among specific groups of citizens, and how this influences the equality of participation. To that end, we estimate Bayesian multi-level models on a unique set of official data on citizens’ participation covering 30 ballots between 2008 and 2016 in Geneva, Switzerland, which has the most far-reaching experience with e-voting worldwide. Despite the fact that e-voting was added to an easy-to-use form of postal voting, we find that offering e-voting has increased turnout among abstainers and occasional voters. By contrast, the effects of e-voting availability on the equality of participation are mixed with respect to the age cohorts and gender.     

Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research

This article analyzes the effect of the expected closeness on turnout for 56 direct-democratic votes held in Switzerland between 2012 and 2015. It is the first study to measure the expected closeness by using data obtained from prediction markets. It clarifies empirically the relation between the expected closeness and the levels of turnout in direct democratic votes showing that the expected closeness of the result exerts a positive effect on participation levels.