认同政治与利益政治的双建构——波兰、匈牙利和捷克民粹主义政党的崛起

目前,学术界对于民粹主义崛起的原因分析大多基于认同政治的视角。波兰、匈牙利和捷克民粹主义政党的案例表明,认同政治和利益政治共同建构了民粹主义政党的崛起。从认同政治的角度看,民粹主义政党淡化意识形态的左右之分,不断地强化身份"认同",区别"自我"和"他者",把自己装扮成一个民族主义和文化排外主义的政党。从利益政治的角度看,民粹主义政党尽管不再以阶级动员为主要手段,甚至尽力回避"阶级""阶层"等词语,但"人民"与"精英"的区分使其成功吸引了社会转型中的受害者。选举结果表明,中下收入者是民粹主义政党的主要支持者,2008年国际金融危机加剧的无产阶级贫困化和中产阶级的无产阶级化趋势为它们提供了丰沃的社会土壤。正是通过认同政治和利益政治的双建构,波兰、匈牙利和捷克民粹主义政党强化了底层民众的民族、宗教和文化认同,把草根性的政治参与转换成自己的认同基础。     

乌克兰民族主义:历史演进、政治诉求与极端发展

乌克兰民族主义思想及运动具有久远的历史根源。独立建国后,为实现巩固民族国家、强化政治认同的目标,乌克兰部分民族主义政治家在国内治理方面推行了若干极具民族主义色彩的政策措施。在当前的乌克兰政治变局中,极端民族主义政治势力发挥了重大影响。总的来看,冷战后乌克兰民族主义的发展及其政治诉求,在实践层面上与乌国内社会现状严重脱节,加剧了各族群、各地区之间的矛盾,不利于乌国内局势的稳定发展。     

俄罗斯出兵乌克兰是报复性反制

从某种意义上来说,俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事行动,让百年未有之大变局,以具象化的方式呈现于全球。地缘政治博弈的齿轮,因此骤然进入了一个加速运转的时期。俄罗斯在乌克兰采取特别军事行动,震动了整个世界。全球范围,美西方精英和媒体,一夜之间变成了纯白的和平鸽,熟练地捡起脚底下的国际法,翻到相应的章节,开始照本宣科:普京是坏人,俄罗斯是怪兽,出兵乌克兰是侵略,违反国际法等等。全球范围精神上认同美国,比美国人更信任美国政府的爱好和平人士,开始跟随华盛顿的节奏。     

民粹主义:一个“欧洲问题”?

2008年金融危机之后,欧洲各国以反精英、反建制和极端排外为特征的民粹主义热潮引发了政界和学术界的广泛关注。然而,这一现象通常被认为是一个"欧洲问题",其诱因是欧洲一体化进程在现阶段所出现的具体困难。本文认为,此种分析视角有很大的局限性,民粹主义不仅仅是欧洲社会在一体化道路上暂时性的"水土不服",它反映了作为传统政治单位的民族国家在全球资本主义的挑战之下所出现的功能混乱和身份困难,而草根与精英分道扬镳的背后是福利国家与新自由主义之间日益激烈的矛盾冲突。本研究在理论探讨的基础上,辅以案例研究和话语分析,力图在多层次的宏观理论框架下来检视民粹主义这一问题。     

乌克兰宪法变革下的政体困局:评估与展望

从1991年正式独立至今,伴随着宪法的不断变化,乌克兰政体也出现过多次反复。其根源一方面在于宪法未能体现总统、总理、议会和司法之间的权力制衡;另一方面在于乌克兰国内亲俄、亲欧力量的分裂,使得任何一部宪法都没有稳定的民意根基。分析乌克兰不同宪法框架下的不同政体存在的问题,尤其是2014年2月乌克兰重新恢复2004宪法框架下的总理总统制的理论及现实问题,有利于深入认识乌克兰国内冲突的制度因素,以及合理地展望乌克兰宪法和政体变革的趋势。     

右翼民粹主义的科学架构——以德国选择党的气候科学架构为例

在新冠疫情危机和气候危机背景下,通过建构科学框架叙事“去合法化”主流科学真相已成为当前右翼民粹主义政治传播和动员策略的重要特征。本文基于架构视角从诊断型架构、处方型架构和动机型架构三个方面对右翼民粹主义的科学叙事进行分析。在诊断型架构方面,民粹主义者对精英进行道德审判,从目的可疑性和行为伪善性两个层面揭露精英的“道德低劣性”。在处方型架构方面,民粹主义者借助于呼吁常识、科学化包装和建构阴谋论等手段建构新的科学“反知识”框架,向人民展示民粹主义版本的另类事实对于主流科学知识的可替代性。在动机型架构方面,民粹主义者通过煽动对精英和主流科学的恐惧和愤怒情绪,使民众更有动机根据自身身份认同和情感直觉对科学信息进行解读和传播。最后,本文以德国选择党的气候科学架构作为案例,探析右翼民粹主义政党如何利用气候科学框架挑战主流气候科学和政治精英,以实现自身政治诉求。对右翼民粹主义科学架构的研究,有助于为研判当前西方政治极化的发展新趋势提供新的视角。     

俄国1917年革命和内战期间各种势力在乌克兰的角逐及结果

乌克兰历史文化复杂,乌克兰三次争取独立的历史都与国际地缘政治的变化相关联。第一次世界大战、1917年俄国革命及俄国内战导致的地缘政治变化为乌克兰提供了在帝国废墟上建立自己国家的客观条件。但由于乌克兰地区各种势力的不同要求,各种力量在乌克兰地区激烈博弈,最后布尔什维克取胜。一战前乌克兰地区分属于俄罗斯帝国和奥匈帝国两国,一战后,则分属于四个国家：苏维埃俄国获得了乌克兰的大部分,波兰获得了加利西亚和从前曾属于俄国的沃伦部分地区,捷克斯洛伐克获得了喀尔巴阡罗斯,罗马尼亚获得了比萨拉比亚和布科维纳。当时与俄罗斯及乌克兰问题利益相关的各国出于各自的利益考虑,也对乌克兰采取了不同的态度。研究俄国革命及内战期间乌克兰地区各种力量的争夺,对理解和认识当今俄乌冲突具有现实借鉴意义。     

民粹政治与东南亚政治精英的分化和合流

近年来,东南亚地区涌现出诸多构建“民众—精英”对立话语、塑造领袖魅力、实施跨阶层政治动员以竞争权力与资源的民粹政治现象,但是不同民粹政治进程中民粹领袖与传统精英的互动却呈现出分化合流的显著差异。探讨民粹政治中的精英政治问题是有效的切入点。民粹领袖尝试构建政治纲领、汇集民意穿透精英政治壁垒,但是由地主、资产阶级、宗教领袖以及军官团等构成的东南亚传统精英依托土地、资本、宗教权威、强制力量等要素,占据着政治权力与利益分配机制的核心位置,限制了精英分化合流的互动过程。因而,政治方略决定了民粹领袖能否实现对精英的“挟制”:再分配与制度变革取向的革新政治将会引发传统精英反制与精英分化;改良政治以利益相容与权力制衡的形式“挟制”传统精英,以合作与妥协两种方式实现精英合流。精英分化合流的现实意味着东南亚国家追求制度改革的民粹主义浪潮不仅难以打破既有政治经济秩序,而且可能陷入“精英合流”与“精英反对精英”的轮回。     

乌克兰选举与大国地缘政治

2004年乌克兰总统大选触发政治危机,有其深刻的国内背景。历史和经济发展的不平衡造成西部和东部的尖锐对立,而尤先科和亚努科维奇分别代表西、东部的利益。而最近几年的发展导致乌克兰人民中普遍存在对现实和当政者不满的情绪。俄美欧等大国在乌克兰政治危机的表现深刻地反映了大国地缘政治战略在乌克兰的博弈。未来乌克兰局势存在种种变数,也留下了种种思考,最终结局取决于乌克兰人民的选择和大国力量的对比,取决于俄美两国战略家们的理智和判断力。     

一体化、话语权与代议制:当代欧洲民粹现象的三维视角

随着英国"脱欧",欧盟的一体化进程出现了重大倒退,但是,当代欧盟国家的民粹危机不能简单地理解为欧洲一体化引起的不适或是全球化失意者的反抗。反一体化的民粹思潮揭示出欧洲一体化进程中严重的不平衡以及现代西方代议制民主在全球化与新媒体时代面临的严重合法性危机;具体可以归纳为三个方面:其一,欧洲一体化过程中劳资平衡的解体;其二,冷战结束后意识形态的"终结"带来了话语的贫困;其三,"欧洲一体化"造成的代议制民主下精英统治的合法性危机,而新媒体时代进一步加剧了这种精英统治的危机。这种危机的持续可能带来对代议制民主的深刻反动,既有可能使欧洲出现某种强人政治,也有可能让大众与精英在未来的政治过程中形成某种新的平衡。     

The rise and fall and rise of populism in Venezuela

The article seeks to outline the main elements through which a populist political order was built in Venezuela. It will be done, first by looking at the golden years a of Venezuelan populism (1945–1948). It will be argued that the constitution of populist politics meant: an appeal to the people, the articulation of new social relations and constitution of new political identities. Then it will turn to the latter Pérez and Caldera showing the basic schemes of their governments. They sought to reconstitute politics and reshape political identities in a new populist way. The arrival of Chávez at power and the first months of his government are also analysed.     

Populist possibilities and political constraints in Mexico

This article defines populism (in Latin American context) as a form of politics that is based mainly upon a personalist appeal, attracts significant popular support and, if successful, significantly redesigns social or political institutions. Neopopulism is defined as a form of populism which begins outside the state as opposed to classic populism which originates within the state. The main theoretical argument is that the study of populism can be made significant for comparative politics if we emphasise the issue of institutional redesign and then conceptualise it in structure vs agency terms. The comparative question then becomes whether a particular set of political institutions is robust enough to withstand the challenge of a charismatic individual. The empirical background is that Latin America has seen a significant number of populist movements that have indeed fundamentally altered institutional structures. By the same token, there have been an even larger number of populist attempts which ultimately failed. Having made this point, the discussion then focuses on Mexico. It seeks to understand the different sets of conditions which allowed Lázaro Cárdenas to succeed as classic populist in the 1930s, Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas to come close to success as a neopopulist in the 1980s and which greatly reduce the likelihood of successful neopopulism in the near future.     

Populism in the Manifestos of Latvian Political Parties: Increasingly Used but Ineffective?

It is often stated that we live in an era of populist zeitgeist, namely, that populism today has become part of everyday politics. Despite systematic attempts to investigate the validity of this claim in Western European democracies, the situation in the Baltic states has been overlooked. This article marks the first attempt to investigate the dynamics of populism in the Latvian party manifestos by using novel research methodology to quantitatively estimate how populist Latvian political parties have become over an extensive period of time. Our findings reveal that in the last two decades populism has indeed become more widespread in Latvian party manifestos, yet it does not seem to be very effective and is largely primarily used by electorally unsuccessful parties.     

Imagine All the People? Mobilising Islamic Populism for Right-Wing Politics in Indonesia

ABSTRACT

Right-wing politics in Indonesia is frequently associated with Islamic populist ideas. In part this is because Islamic organisations played a major role in the army-led destruction of the Indonesian Communist Party in the 1960s. Since then Islamic populism has evolved greatly and in post-authoritarian Indonesia it includes manifestations that see no fundamental contradiction between Islam and neo-liberal market economies as well as those that do. Significantly, like their counterparts in other countries, Indonesian Islamic populists maintain vigilance against the purveyors of class-based politics who may exert a divisive influence on the ummah. Thus, Indonesian Islamic populism shares with many of its counterparts a disdain for Leftist challenges to private property and capital accumulation besides political liberalism’s affinity to the secular national state. Yet strands of Islamic populism have relegated the project of establishing a state based on sharia to the background and embraced the democratic process. But this has not translated necessarily into social pluralist positions on a range of issues because the reinforcement of cultural idioms associated with Islam is required for the mobilisation of public support in contests over power and resources based on an ummah-based political identity.     

Populist Communication and Publicity: An Empirical Study of Contextual Differences in Switzerland

Abstract: This study analyzes the context‐dependency of populist communication and asks whether there are variations in populist communication for representatives of different kinds of parties. In contrast to previous research on European populism, which mostly considers only the right‐wing, this study includes the entire scope of political parties; thus allowing for the possibility of the diffusion of populism in contemporary politics. The empirical contribution is a multilevel analysis of speeches in non‐public and public forums (closed parliamentary committees, open parliamentary floors, and the talk show ‘Arena’) on immigration and asylum amendments in Switzerland. A so‐called populist party, the Swiss People’s Party, played a significant role in drafting the legislation. Analysis reveals that a) different public settings influence populist communication differently; b) a non‐populist party, the Christian‐democrats, employs more populist communication on average than any other party and its populism is employed more consistently across contexts than that of the Swiss People’s Party; c) but when speaking in media forms, the Swiss People’s Party employs substantially more populist communication than any other party. Thus, the type of public forum does not uniformly contribute to higher levels of populist communication, but rather the effect of forum type varies substantially by party.     

Calling the Ghost of Populism: The AfD's Strategic and Tactical Agendas until the EP Election 2014

Since the formation of the German AfD in spring 2013, political scientists have discussed whether the AfD can be classified as a populist party. Despite the split of the party in summer 2015 leading to this characterisation becoming uncontested, the question remains whether the AfD was populist from its inception. This article demonstrates that distinguishing between the tactical and strategic agendas of the party solves this conundrum. While the AfD seldom applied populist discourse in its official manifestos, its tactical agenda was undoubtedly framed by populism. Ironically, it has been the ideologically moderate economist wing that has applied populist discourse in combination with its critique of the euro.     

Interpreting "Nationality" and "Language" in the 2001 Ukrainian Census

Ukraine conducted its first post-Soviet census in December 2001. The author examines the use of the categories "nationality" and "native language" in the census and relates them to fundamental precepts of Soviet nationality and census policies. The enumeration of national and linguistic identities is related to the expression of political preferences. Orientations toward language policies (particularly in Galicia and Crimea), regional autonomy (in Transcarpathia), and territorial belonging (among the younger generation) are analyzed in order to reveal the politics of the 2001 Ukrainian census.     

Half measures and incomplete reforms: the breeding ground for a hybrid civil Society in Ukraine

Abstract

In the space of 24 years, Ukraine has experienced three ‘revolutions’: the revolution for independence, the ‘Orange Revolution’ and the ‘Dignity Revolution’. On each occasion the event has been lauded as a triumph of democracy over authoritarianism and as evidence that Ukraine will soon be able to assume its rightful place as a free, democratic state in Europe. On two out of three occasions the reverse has occurred; while the people have taken to the streets to protest against flagrant corruption and abuse of power, the oligarchs have responded with only minor changes to the political system. The reins of political and economic power have remained firmly in their hands, and Ukraine’s prospects for political and economic development have deteriorated. The Dignity Revolution of 2014 is seen as different from preceding revolutions because civil society appeared to be much more active and it has succeeded, in part, in maintaining pressure on government for reform. It is important to understand, however, that despite periodic and dramatic demonstrations of outrage over the corrupt and authoritarian practices of the political elites, civil society has generally been classed as apathetic, weak and ineffectual. Thus, the current challenge for Ukrainian civil society is to overcome its own limitations so that it can better hold government to account.     

Coalitional presidentialism and legislative control in post-Soviet Ukraine

Two political scientists explore the significance of pro-presidential legislative coalitions in Ukrainian politics since 2000. They draw on an original survey of MPs and cabinet data to engage with the extant analysis of coalitional politics in Ukraine. Using the framework of “coalitional presidentialism,” which was first developed in the study of Latin American presidential systems, they find evidence to suggest that legislative coalitions are a meaningful feature of Ukrainian legislative life, and point to the tools that presidents use to maintain them.