Peace from the Inside: Exploring the Role of the Insider-Partial Mediator

Previous quantitative research on mediation in intrastate and interstate conflicts has highlighted the role of external mediators. This study represents the first effort to systematically explore the role of internal—insider-partial—mediators. We suggest that the insider-partial mediators bring important indigenous resources to a peace process and that they can complement external mediators by mitigating the bargaining problem of information failure. Exploring new data on the occurrence and effect of mediation in unarmed insurrections from 1970–2006, we find that the insider-partial mediators significantly increase the likelihood of negotiated agreements. This applies even after controlling for so-called selection effects, where external mediators are selected, or self-selected, into the most difficult conflict situations, whereas insider-partial mediators are utilized in conflict situations that are less severe; and where insider-partial mediators have a substantially higher frequency of activity in unarmed as compared to armed insurrections. We therefore conclude that the insider-partial mediators play an important and positive role in peacemaking that merits further exploration.     

Art of the Power Deal: The Four Negotiation Roles of Donald J. Trump

In this article, I mine President Donald Trump’s considerable writing and speaking record to synthesize the key elements of his deal‐making approach to help make better sense of his rhetoric and actions on the world’s diplomatic stage. My argument is that Trump’s coercive negotiation style is best understood through the prism of his four public roles: observer, performer, controller, and disrupter. In this article, I analyze how these roles translate into his negotiating behavior. Spotting and exploiting vulnerability is his trade; leverage and bravado are his tools. After assessing the opposing side, Trump uses leverage to threaten his counterparts’ weaknesses, while using bravado to play up the advantages of reaching an agreement on his terms. This way, he presents a drastic structured choice to his opponents, leaving them the least maneuvering space. In the final section of the paper, I illustrate how the four‐role framework helps explain Trump’s decisions in the nuclear negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. I also consider opportunities for further research.     

Pipeline Diplomacy: The Geopolitics of the Caspian Sea Region

The Caspian Sea region is important to world energy markets because it holds large reserves of undeveloped oil and natural gas. In order to fully utilize these resources several challenges need to be addressed. These include an accurate assessment of the region's hydrocarbon resources; rivalries between regional and international powers; domestic ethnic conflicts; and lack of appropriate export routes. This study examines these four obstacles. It argues that the region could help increase world energy security by diversifying global sources of supply; however, the notion that the Caspian's oil and gas can be the panacea to long–term global energy security is misguided.     

Beyond Offers and Counteroffers: The Impact of Interaction Time and Negotiator Job Satisfaction on Subjective Outcomes in Negotiation

In this study, we examined real‐world sales negotiations by collecting data in collaboration with a large Taiwanese eyeglasses company. We found, as has been established previously, that higher first offers predict higher company profits and that the impact of high opening offers can be muted by greater customer awareness of prices at other stores. When we investigated a more qualitative outcome, customers’ perceptions of service quality, a different set of predictors emerged. Our results indicate that salespeople who spent more time introducing the products and services were perceived by the customers as providing higher service quality, but this effect only occurred for those salespeople who reported high levels of job satisfaction. Also, price reduction by salespeople did not improve customer satisfaction. Our results indicate that customer satisfaction does not require negotiated price concessions, but rather depends on extensive interaction with salespeople who are happy in their work. This is the first study to show that negotiator job satisfaction can affect important negotiation outcomes.     

The Culture of Interest: A Proposed Addition and Revision of the Three‐Culture Model

Negotiation and conflict resolution theorists have classified world cultures according to three types for the purpose of describing and predicting some of the ways in which individuals and groups within broad, geographically based cultural groups behave in conflict and negotiation‐related situations. These three broad categories, called “cultural syndromes,” have described these cultures according to the relative value they place on these three concerns: honor, face, and dignity. Based on our examination of the literature on the cultural dimensions of negotiation and conflict management, our own practice, and an analysis of literature and practice pertaining to the place and utility of the honor, face, interest, and dignity attributes within and between cultural groups , we propose a reformulation of this typology. Our reformulation would replace the broad “dignity” category with a new category that we call “interest,” which we believe better characterizes Northern European and North American cultures. We also argue that a cultural orientation toward dignity is universal and not geographically unique and is thus shared by all three cultures. This new formulation, we believe, more accurately characterizes the global range of orientations toward negotiation and conflict resolution and would, if adopted, help scholars and practitioners better understand culturally divergent conflict orientations and behaviors as well as the ramifications of such differences for negotiation and conflict resolution practice.     

The Role of Central and Eastern Europe in the Building of Silk Road Economic Belt

On September 7, 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a speech in Kazakhstan titled, ＂Promote Friendship Between Our People and Work Together to Build a Bright Future＂, in which he proposed jointly creating a ＂Silk Road Economic Belt＂. The Silk Road Economic Belt, which encompasses political, economic,     

Lost in Translation: The Problem of Perceptual Limitations in Civil War Peace Negotiation

This article examines the negative role that actors' perceptual limitations play in civil war peace negotiation by reviewing the Sino-Khmer Rouge interplay during the Cambodian peace negotiations (1987–1993). The study contends that China continually failed to challenge the Khmer Rouge's negotiation strategies, which were founded on the faction's flawed understanding of its situation. Moreover, the inadequate communication between China and its client faction and the Khmer Rouge's lack of institutions for obtaining and analyzing information are identified as the two main reasons for the failure of Chinese intervention.     

中国——东盟自由贸易区合作进程中的政府作用初探——兼谈广西开放带动战略的提升

中国-东盟自由贸易区以及在这一框架下的多区域合作是属于制度性一体化的合作,而且是以发展中国家（或地区）为合作主体的区域合作。政府作为这一合作进程中的组织者、推动者和协调者,是区域合作的主要行为体。本文主要是从宏观层面上探讨政府（主要是我国中央政府和广西区政府）在这一合作进程中的作用,并在此基础上阐述广西开放带动战略的提升。     

The Nonlinear Effect of Information on Political Attention: Media Storms and U.S. Congressional Hearings

Agenda-setting scholars have claimed that the typical punctuated pattern of governmental attention is a consequence of disproportionate information processing. Yet these claims remain unsubstantiated. We tackle this challenge by considering mass media coverage as a source of information for political actors and by examining the relationship between preceding media information and subsequent governmental attention. Employing data capturing U.S. media attention and congressional hearings (1996–2006), we find that the effects of media attention on congressional attention are conditioned by the presence of “media storms”—sudden and large surges in media attention to a given topic. A one-story increase in media attention has a greater effect on congressional attention in the context of a media storm, since media storms surpass a key threshold for catching policymakers’ attention. We find evidence that the influence of media attention on political attention is nonlinear; agenda-setting operates differently when the media are in storm mode.     

Interpretive Filters: Social Cognition and the Impact of Turning Points in Negotiation

A number of studies have shown that certain events that occur during a negotiation can alter its course. Referred to as "turning points," these events are precipitated by actions taken either outside or inside the talks that have consequences for outcomes. In this article, we report the results of two experiments designed to examine the impacts of two types of precipitating actions, external and internal. In the first experiment, which focused on external actions, we found that crises — as opposed to breakthroughs — produced more movement in negotiations in which parties viewed the social climate positively (high trust, low power). We found that parties achieved less movement in negative social climates (low trust, high power).
In the second experiment, which focused on internal actions, we found that cooperative precipitants (factors inducing change) were more likely to occur when parties negotiated in the context of positive social climates. Negotiation outcomes were also influenced by the climate: we found better individual outcomes for negotiations that occurred in positive climates (high trust, cooperative orientations). Inboth experiments, the social climate of the negotiation moderated the effects of precipitating factors on negotiation outcomes. Perceptions of trust and power filter the way negotiators interpret actions that occur outside or are taken inside a negotiation, which can lead to agreements or impasses.     

韩日政府信息公开制度及对我国的启示

韩日政府信息公开制度确立较早,取得了大量经验。我国政府信息公开制度还处在起步、发展阶段。借鉴韩日政府信息公开制度的经验,逐步夯实我国政府信息公开的社会基础;树立我国政府信息公开的正确理念;确定我国政府信息公开的合理范围;建立政府信息公开的审议机构;完善我国政府信息公开的制度体系。     

Games,Claims, and New Frames: Rethinking the Use of Simulation in Negotiation Education

Negotiation educators have long considered the use of role‐play simulations as an essential classroom teaching method, and have had high expectations regarding their suitability and efficacy for teaching. In this article, we review the literature to examine the degree to which simulations deliver on these perceived benefits, finding that simulations enjoy only limited advantages over other teaching methods. We note three trends that have developed as part of this reevaluation process: improving the way simulations are conducted, deemphasizing the use of simulations as a teaching tool while seeking new methods, and finding paradigm‐changing uses for simulations. With regard to this last trend, we describe our own experiments assigning students to design their own simulations, rather than participate in them as role players. Among other benefits of the design method, we found that designers showed greater improvements in concept learning and motivation than did role players.     

从拉美实践看政府在社会保障改革中的职责

在社会保障制度改革中 ,有效而正确的政府行为是成功的改革有望实现的前提。一个好的制度既应该适合本国国情和国民的承受能力 ,还应该有明确的改革目标和推进步骤。政府的改革决心和意志对改革的顺利实施非常关键 ,这既表现在改革模式的选择上 ,也体现在整个改革进程中。进行制度设计之前 ,应该充分进行调查研究 ,明确改革目标 ,形成总体思路 ,进行整体规划。还应抓住有利时机坚决推进改革。既要制定相关法律、法规 ,又要严格执法和实施监管。在新老制度交替的过渡期中 ,国家的财政担保非常重要。政府能否为社会弱势群体提供最低生活保障 ,是社会保障制度改革能否顺利实施的重要一环。     

社会网络视角下的东亚国家间信任建构:理论框架与现实路径

信任是影响国家间互动的重要变量,20世纪90年代,国际关系学把信任问题的研究从国内社会层面扩展到国际社会,开始探讨国家间的信任建构问题,信任由此成为国际关系领域研究的核心问题。本文运用社会学的相关理论,从广义的信任概念出发,分析国家间信任的内涵、结构、条件和路径,构建国家间信任的理论模型,并以此为框架评估当前东亚国家间的信任状况,探讨东亚地区互信建构应遵循的现实路径。     

权力格局失衡与心理调适——中国东盟关系中的信任问题

2009年以来,尽管中国东盟自贸区成功建成,双方的经济相互依赖达到前所未有的高度,但是中国与东盟仍然经历了严重的信任危机。通过对中国东盟长达20年的信任关系建构历程进行回顾,文章试图回答哪些因素影响着中国东盟信任关系的建构这一理论问题。在对现有理论要素进行折中主义整合并且补充之后,文章从权力格局失衡以及东盟国家心理调适需要的角度重新看待中国与东盟20年来信任关系建构的互动进程,并对当前中国外交应对周边小国信任危机提出政策建议。     

浅谈现代化进程中发展中国家政府职能的定位——以拉丁美洲国家为例

拉美国家和其他发展中国家在现代化进程中 ,其政府职能只能强化而不能弱化。现代化进程是个庞大而复杂的系统工程 ,只靠市场经济规律而没有政府干预 ,势必造成无序和失控。因此 ,政府通过经济杠杆、法律约束和必要的行政干预对现代化进程中发生的一些矛盾和冲突进行调解十分必要。在对外关系方面 ,发展中国家的政府职能也只能强化而不能弱化。要坚持“主权平等”的原则 ,反对西方发达国家借口“全球治理”干涉别国内政。总之 ,发展中国家只有制定出符合本国国情和适应新形势的发展战略 ,并从体制、制度、政策和机制等层面上强化政府的职能 ,才能使现代化进程沿着正确的方向不断向前发展。     

The Role of the Scholar-Practitioner in International Conflict Resolution

Can unofficial, academically based, third-party approaches contribute to the prevention and resolution of international and intercommunal conflicts? The article focuses on one such approach, interactive problem solving, which the author has applied primarily in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. After describing the central tool of the approach, the problem-solving workshop, the article goes on to address the role of interactive problem solving and related approaches to the larger process of conflict resolution. In this context, it discusses the relationship of the microprocess of problem-solving workshops to the macroprocess of international conflict resolution; the relationship between official and unofficial diplomacy; the relationship between practice and scholarship in conflict resolution; the role of the university in the process; and the possibilities for institutionalizing this model of conflict resolution.     

The Negotiator and the Bomber: Analyzing the Critical Role of Active Listening in Crisis Negotiations

This article extends Michael R. Hammer and Randall G. Rogan's communication-based, interactive model of crisis negotiation by examining the role of active listening by a police negotiator in New South Wales, Australia in the process of serving a "high-risk warrant" on an armed and dangerous man who was expected to resist. Through an analysis of the interaction between the perpetrator and the negotiator, this paper demonstrates that the use of active listening in the early stages of the negotiation was a critical factor in the resolution of this crisis and is an essential skill for any hostage negotiator.     

政治转型中的制度因素：泰国选举制度改革研究

本文认为,泰国政局持续动荡的重要原因,在于各派政治利益集团在重新划定权力边界的政治转型过程中始终未能在政治制度层面达成显规则与潜规则的相互契合。尽管各方对改变“小党林立”格局存在共识,但“反他信”阵营的既得利益集团偏好“两党对峙”格局,而“挺他信”阵营的新兴利益集团倾向“一党优势”格局。由于两派都存在对“实际控制力一潜规则权力边界”的错位误判,使得各方难以通过选举制度的显规则调整来重新划定彼此间的权力边界,从而导致持续的政治冲突与角力。     

Sorting out the Conceptual Muddle: The Role of the Japanese Economy in the Asian Financial Crisis

Karel van Wolferen argues that, since Japan's political economy was the main factor in creating the circumstances that led up to the East Asian financial crisis, studies must focus on it to understand this event. The Japanese economy, which is here described as a war economy operating in peacetime, provided the model for East Asia's 'tiger economies' that imitated the Japanese government in its targeting of sectors for investment, especially the construction industry in the 1980s. These other East Asian economies proved more vulnerable to crisis than the Japanese economy because they were more open to foreign investment and did not have Japan's closely knit economic and financial networks and institutions. After presenting this preface to the crisis, van Wolferen then criticizes the current East Asian economic situation, in which international institutions continue to force the Western ideals of transparency and deregulation on most of the East Asian economies while permitting Japan to remain the least transparent economy of the entire region.