Jump-Starting Democracy: Adult Civic Education and Democratic Participation in Three Countries

In countries emerging from authoritarianism into democracy, citizens have little preparation for participating in the new political dispensations they face. Adult civic education promises a way to jump-start the lifelong socialization experience that their counterparts in the long-established democracies enjoy. But do these brief crash-courses in democracy really have any impact? Recent surveys of civic education efforts sponsored by the United States Agency for International Development in the Dominican Republic, Poland and South Africa find that those taking part in the programmes do participate significantly more in local level politics and, to a somewhat lesser extent, in politics more generally as well. There is also evidence that non-elites can benefit more from such programmes and begin to close the participation gap that separates them from traditional elites. The overall gains in participation are, however, modest. But given that political participation in absolute terms has been quite low in both old and new democracies, it can be argued that even modest gains are important and make investment in civic education worthwhile.     

The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War

This article argues that militant clients should be understood as a pillar of Iran's grand strategy and an extension of its military power. The article examines why Iran has relied on militant clients since the 1979 revolution and the benefits and costs of its client approach. In evaluating these issues, it identifies five main areas where Iran has gained from its client strategy: 1) maintaining independence from the West; 2) successfully exporting its religio-political worldview; 3) extending its military reach and power; 4) reducing political costs of its foreign activities; and 5) establishing needed regional allies. It further identifies five main dangers that Iran faces by continuing its strategic behavior: 1) increased pressure from the United States and a broader US military regional footprint; 2) more unified regional adversaries; 3) the risk of unintended escalation with the United States and regional adversarial states; and 4) enduring regional instability and insecurity     

当代哈萨克精英与社会转型

本文以哈萨克政治中的精英为研究对象,以历史脉络为线索,对哈萨克精英的形成过程、组成方式等进行分析,并探讨哈萨克社会转型与精英变迁之间的关系.在哈萨克汗国成立至今的五百多年间,哈萨克社会经历了两轮根本性的政治和社会转型,即苏维埃时期的社会主义化与独立后的资本主义化.而哈萨克精英则在此转型过程当中经历了三轮演变、两轮危机与...     

Why Stay Together? State Nationalism and Justifications for State Unity in Spain and the UK

Abstract

This paper examines the way party elites in the UK and Spain discursively construct the nation and justify state integrity in the face of resurgent Catalan and Scottish demands for self-determination and independence. While in each case there is a plurality of conceptions of the state, in Spain the demos is predominantly defined as a single, indivisible nation of equal citizens while in the UK the focus is typically on a plurinational Union. This, we contend, shapes the arguments made in favor of state unity. The dominant case for state integrity in Spain is more negative, focused primarily on the unconstitutionality of independence and delegitimizing the independence agenda. In the UK, the predominant appeal to the Union is more positive and instrumental: as the country is perceived as a partnership entered into willingly, a case must be made for its continuation. This paper seeks to contribute to the understanding of state nationalism and political dynamics in plurinational states by shedding light on the ways in which party elites understand and legitimize the state at moments of profound internal challenge.     

Nomenklatura democratization: Electoral clientelism in post‐soviet Ukraine

Electoral clientelism could represent a significant threat to democratic consolidation in post‐communist states. Recent elections in Ukraine provide a prime example of the way in which communist‐era elites have been able to use electoral mechanisms to launder their political resources. Evidence suggests that economic disarray has created a situation in which large sectors of the electorate are willing to have their votes bought by political machines, rather than having them won through competition between parties offering different policy packages. Clientelism of this type appears to be engaged in by two types of political actor in Ukraine: left wing parties and individual members of the economic and political elite.     

阿拉伯国家政治文化的多维考量

阿拉伯国家的政治文化是阿拉伯民族关于政治生活的心理学。阿拉伯国家的政治文化只是阿拉伯文化流变历史进程中的一个组成部分,具有一定的独立性与特殊性。第二次世界大战后至今,阿拉伯地区政治生态先后经历了民族国家构建、伊斯兰复兴运动以及最近席卷西亚北非的"阿拉伯之春"。在此期间诸多政治思潮、宗教主义与文化观念融入到阿拉伯国家,深入到政治生活的各个层面,构成阿拉伯国家政治文化丰富多彩的内容。由于阿拉伯世界特殊的宗教地域特色,导致其政治文化不可避免地具有阿拉伯民族性与伊斯兰宗教性,二者的此消彼长则是阿拉伯政治文化最鲜明的结构模式。     

U.S. Bases and Democratization in Central Asia

Under the Pentagon's current Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR), the United States is reducing its forces in several major Cold War base hosts and establishing a global network of smaller, more flexible facilities in new areas such as Central Asia, the Black Sea and Africa. Drawing upon recent evidence from the Central Asian base hosts of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, this article cautions that these new U.S. overseas bases, despite their lighter footprint and regardless of the prevailing security situation, risk becoming enmeshed in the local struggles and political agendas of elites within these hosts. Periods of turbulent democratic transition and regime instability may encourage host country politicians to challenge the legitimacy and terms of the U.S. basing presence for their own political purposes. These are important lessons for U.S. planners who are simultaneously promoting democratization while they negotiate basing and military access agreements in these same politically volatile hosts.     

Ethnic Elites and Rituals of Provocation: Politicians,Pastors, and Paramilitaries in Northern Ireland

ABSTRACT

Prominent theories of ethnic conflict argue that instrumental ethnic elites incite violence in order to promote their own power. Yet this approach focuses primarily on political leaders and ignores other ethnic elites, meaning that we know little about how other influential actors think about provocation. In this paper, I present novel data from Northern Ireland on diverse elite attitudes toward polarising Protestant parades with a long history of sparking ethnic violence. Using original surveys of Protestant elected officials and clergy as well as interviews with ex-paramilitaries, this paper demonstrates that these elite groups have different, often competing, interests and opinions regarding contested parades: while politicians tend to support provocative parades, the others do not. By addressing elite actors that are often ignored, I present a more nuanced picture of elite-mass relations and ethnic mobilisation in conflict.     

Democratization and Civilian Control of the Military in Taiwan

Over the last 20 years, Taiwan has witnessed an impressive transition from authoritarian one-party rule to liberal democracy. This included considerable changes in the relations between the civilian political elites and the armed forces. While under the emergency laws of the authoritarian regime the military had been a powerful political force, during democratization the elected civilians have managed to curb military political power and have successively widened their influence over former exclusively military prerogatives. This article argues that the development of Taiwan's civil–military relations can be explained as the result of civilians using increasingly robust strategies to enhance their influence over the military. This was made possible by a highly beneficial combination of historical conditions and factors inside and outside the military that strengthened the political power of the civilian elites and weakened the military's bargaining power. The article finds that even though partisan exploitation of civilian control instruments could potentially arouse civil–military conflict in the future, civil–military relations in general will most likely remain supportive of the further consolidation of Taiwan's democracy.     

The Kurdistan Referendum Movement: Political Opportunity Structures and National Identity

This article examines the lack of mass mobilization by Iraqi Kurds to establish an independent Kurdistan. It argues that while the outcome of an unofficial January 2005 referendum – in which 98 per cent of Kurds supported independence – was a clear expression of their will, the political opportunity structures within which the Kurdistan Referendum Movement operates are closed to the formation of a mass-based social movement. Utilizing data from a survey of Kurdish elites and activists, as well as follow-up interviews, this analysis provides insights into the future of democracy in Iraq and the value of political opportunity theory in understanding mass mobilization.     

United States Hegemony and the New Economics of Defense

Liberal theory asserts that the need for cost-effective, technologically advanced weapons requires the United States to acquiesce to increasing defense globalization even as this restrains U.S. power. Realist logic dictates that the United States should resist defense liberalization to retain its self-sufficiency. This is a false choice; the United States encourages defense globalization in order to extend its international political influence. This paper proposes an alternate theory of technological hegemony that explains the U.S. policy of massive R&D investment in both the late Cold War and the current era of American preponderance. Modern weapons' complexity and economies of scale tend to produce monopolies, and the value chain for the production of these monopolistic goods is dominated by the systems integration techniques of prime contracting firms. In turn these prime contractors remain largely enthralled by U.S. market power. The United States gains international influence by controlling the distribution of these weapons. Put simply, technology with international political effects is likely to have international political origins.     

Indian federalism at the crossroads: Limits of the territorial management of ethnic conflict

ABSTRACT

This article critically examines territorial strategies adopted by the Indian state to accommodate territorially concentrated minority groups in two very recent cases: the formation of Telangana (2014) and the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) (2003). We situate both cases within the broader context of linguistic state reorganization in India since the 1950s. We argue that while the formation of states on the basis of linguistic principle was necessary given the long history of demand for linguistic states in India, it is, as Telangana and BTC clearly bear out, not sufficient to accommodate minorities. This is especially the case when, inter alia, language is: (1) appropriated by the dominant group within a state (or states) as a vehicle to perpetuate political majoritarianism, (2) supplemented by weak power-sharing arrangement, and (3) occasioned by longstanding popular perceptions of historical injustices and relative deprivation.     

The “Civic” Road to Secession: Political Ideology as an Ethnic Boundary Marker in Contemporary Scotland

Abstract

Civic nationalism is a weak vessel for secession. Nonetheless, contemporary Scottish nationalism has proven unusually successful, using the characteristically civic marker of political ideology as its signature boundary mechanism. Because a civic form of nationalism funnels toward civic markers of national identity, nationalist elites define Scotland as social democratic and England as neoliberal. This symbolic cultivation of a Scottish social democratic essence is deeply ethnic, however, through a mythological fusion of ideology with genealogy characteristic of ethnic myths of descent. Scotland’s “civic” nationalism points up the confused nature of the ethnic-civic dichotomy itself.     

Normative Power and the Liberal Peace: A Rejoinder to John O'Brennan

This rejoinder to John O'Brennan reasserts the case that the EU enlargement process has a depoliticising effect, which weakens the connections between Western Balkan states and their societies. It suggests that O'Brennan's response is more apologia than analysis; evading issues raised by asymmetrical relations of power between the EU and Western Balkans states. Here the EU is idealised, with the ascribed status of a “normative actor” projecting power merely through “soft power” mechanisms. The points raised in rejoinder seek to clarify that the more “muscular” use of conditionality and direct management of policy reforms inevitably limit the possibilities for public and political debate and consensus-making. Moreover, they distance political elites from their societies. In particular, the use of political conditionality is highlighted, to demonstrate that whether “hard” powers of imposition or “soft” powers of conditionality are used matters less to those on the receiving end of external imposition than to the EU itself, which has attempted to distance itself from its use of executive powers in the region.     

Local actors in the driver's seat: Transatlantic democracy promotion under regime competition in the Arab world

In studies of political transition, scholars started to explore the effect of competition between foreign policies of antipodal regimes on the political trajectories of transition countries, notably between traditional Western donors such as the European Union and the United States of America and regional authoritarian powers such as Saudi Arabia. Drawing on existing accounts, this article studies the conditions under which external actors can effectively steer local elite towards democratic reforms despite illiberal regional powers’ potential counteractions. We argue that the reform-oriented political elites in the recipient country are the ultimate judges in this competition for influence. If democracy promotion is credible, they will decide in favour of democratization, but only if the expected costs and benefits of democratic engagement resist solicitation by authoritarian powers. A study of post-Arab Spring democracy promotion in Tunisia supports the pivotal role of the external donors’ credibility in times of complex donor constellations.     

Building the West’s On-Ramp to China’s Belt and Road: Opportunities in the South Caucasus

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is already changing infrastructure and production across much of the world. The three states of the South Caucasus and their counterparts in Central Asia need diverse connectivity to preserve their economic and political independence amid China’s expanding influence. Despite some rhetoric and practical measures, the United States and the European Union (EU) continue to underestimate the BRI. This article identifies recent international and regional developments that converge to create a unique opportunity for the West and South Caucasus partners. They may develop integrated, long-terms infrastructure of lasting mutual benefit. The convergence of events in and around the South Caucasus offers the place for the West to build an “On-Ramp” to the BRI. The South Caucasus provide a potential gateway into Asia’s heart that is not dictated solely by the priorities of Chinese foreign or commercial policies, just as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline of a generation ago served a similar role.     

Political Inequalities Start at Home: Parents,Children, and the Socialization of Civic Infrastructure Online

We use a two-wave panel survey of parent-child dyads in the United States to connect online democratic divides with the unequal socialization of political interest in the home. We test a model connecting parent socioeconomic status to the amount of political communication in the home and the subsequent development of youth political interest over the course of an election cycle. We develop the theoretical concept of online civic infrastructure to foreground how interest-driven social media use in adolescence may shape future opportunities for civic and political engagement by building network connections and opening up flows of communication that carry news, political information, and opportunities for mobilization.     

The Effects of Global Policy Networks on Peacebuilding: Framework of Evaluation

International organisations and non-governmental organisations involved in peacebuilding often form networks with one another and transplant themselves into war-torn territories with divided communities, weak governments, and little trust between the public and the government. This study examines how this network mechanism of governance orchestrated by international actors can have a political effect on the institutional development of the post-conflict state. The article argues that, superiority in mobilising resources and organisational flexibility notwithstanding, networks pose unique challenges to peacebuilding initiatives: because of the diversity of their members, networks tend to link up to various sectors within the post-conflict entity, thereby perpetuating often pre-existing schisms between the post-conflict government and the society. The study cautions that networks can be prone to parochial political influences from local and international actors, thereby fragmenting the state and the society in a given post-conflict country. But it also highlights that networks can effectively mobilise resources while maintaining political autonomy and independence from their donors, elites from the post-conflict state and the grassroots communities. The enhanced political autonomy is a measure of enhanced problem solving and bureaucratic prowess of the network, which is associated with networks with particular institutional attributes, discussed in the paper.     

Public Information and Field Theory

The unsolved question of whether the media affect political agendas is tackled with an innovative research method: a survey among politicians and journalists in Belgium. This article shows that this new approach can complement existing knowledge and yield new insights. Results largely support the contention that media matter for politics; politicians and journalists state that the media are important agenda setters, even compared to more established political actors such as political parties and interest groups. Though not all issues are equally conducive to media agenda-setting, media always seem to matter to some extent. Some politicians more than others evaluate the media's agenda impact to be high. The actual parliamentary action of some MPs is affected more by prior mass media coverage than others. I account for these differences and show that it is mainly their political role (government or opposition), the negativity of their evaluation of media power, and their perception of the impact of public opinion on politics that determine politicians' perceptions and behavior regarding political agenda-setting.     

When a Man Meets a Woman: Comparing the Use of Negativity of Male Candidates in Single- and Mixed-Gender Televised Debates

Much work has been done to analyze the consequences of the increasing representation of women in politics. Usually, this research compares male and female politicians from a female perspective. For instance, many studies in political communication investigate how and why female candidates show campaign styles similar to or different from their male colleagues. In contrast to this, few studies are interested in how men change their behavior when women enter the political arena. Some of these studies have demonstrated that men limit their negativity when confronted with female candidates. Unfortunately, these analyses focus predominantly on (a) the United States and (b) gender differences in campaign advertising. We seek to provide empirical evidence for non-U.S. campaigns from the most important single campaign events: televised debates. To do so, we analyze data covering all German televised debates broadcast since 1997 where male politicians participated in a two-candidate single- or mixed-gender debate. Our results indicate that the gender of the political opponent affects incivility but not the use of attacks in general. In mixed-gender debates there is less incivility. However, differences in the treatment of male and female opponents tend to decline over time. We conclude that female candidates transform campaign communication—not only because they communicate differently from men, but also because they influence male politicians’ political communication.