The foreign policy of the Zuma government: pursuing the ‘national interest’?

It was after much anticipation that members of the new Jacob Zuma foreign policy executive announced that, for the duration of their term, South Africa's foreign policy would be based on the doctrine of advancing ‘the national interest’, conceptualised simply as the ‘most vital needs’ of the country. However, almost two years since taking control of the levers of policy and political power, the South African government has yet to spell out in detail what constituted the national interest or how such interest would be pursued. In spite of this lacuna, senior members of the new foreign policy inner-elite continue to proclaim the national interest, and proceed to spell out grander foreign policy goals that they would pursue under the banner of a ‘new’ developmental agenda. These include consolidating the African agenda; deepening South–South cooperation; expanding South–North relations; strengthening foreign political and economic ties generally; and participating in a global system of governance. To date, this proclamation that the national interest will be the beam that will guide foreign policy has remained little more than a statement of intent and much conjecture. The challenge is to move beyond rhetoric and intentions and to define the national interest and to articulate a coherent foreign policy going forward. This will require concrete proposals on the basis of thorough-going domestic–foreign policy linkages.     

Changes in the Partisan Composition of the Swiss Government. 1891, 1919, 1929, 1943, 1959, 2003, …?

After almost half a century of an unchanged distribution of seats among political parties in the federal government (Federal Council), the Swiss executive has experienced a new change in 2003. This change follows up on other changes in the past which occurred at irregular intervals. The question we wish to address in this paper is how these changes related to the electoral fortunes of the political parties. We find that electoral success does not translate directly into seat gains in the executive. A lag of up to two elections provides the best predictor. Thus, the rapid concession of a second seat to the SVP in 2003 is an outlier compared to the previous changes in the partisan composition of the Swiss government.     

The sketch of Brazil’s grand strategy under the Workers’ Party (2003–2016): Domestic and international constraints

After passage of the 1988 Constitution of Brazil, successive democratic governments worked to build bridges between the nation’s foreign policy and its defence strategy, thus fostering a dialogue among administrations and constituencies under the aegis of the rule of law. It was under the Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff administrations that Brazil laid out a grand strategy, implementation of which was interrupted by the controversial impeachment proceedings of 2016. The argument unfolds from a consideration of Brazil’s development model and domestic politics as key structural variables in analysing the challenges faced in the conception and implementation of its grand strategy. The article is organised into two sections: (1) The sketch of a grand strategy: when Brazil’s foreign and defence policies converged; (2) An ambition frustrated? Or, the impact of Brazil’s development model and domestic politics on the conception and implementation of its grand strategy.     

Is a Federal European Constitution for an Enlarged European Union Necessary? Some Preliminary Suggestions using Public Choice Analysis

In order to guarantee a further successful functioning of the enlarged European Union a Federal European Constitution is proposed. Six basic elements of a future European federal constitution are developed: the European commission should be turned into a European government and the European legislation should consist of a two chamber system with full responsibility over all federal items. Three further key elements are the subsidiarity principle, federalism and the secession right, which are best suited to limiting the domain of the central European authority to which certain tasks are given, such as defense, foreign and environmental policy. Another important feature is direct democracy, which provides the possibility for European voters to participate actively in political decision making, to break political and interest group cartels, and to prevent an unwanted shifting of responsibilities from EU member states to the European federal level.     

Swiss Air Traffic Policy: Noise between Berne and Berlin

This article looks at the negotiations between Switzerland and Germany on air traffic regulation with the help of negotiation analysis tools. A number of factors pre‐eminent in the literature on negotiation processes and outcomes are presented and critically assessed. In particular arguments of “power”, which are often insufficiently explored in analysing interstate cooperation, are brought back into the picture. The article argues that structural power best explains the negotiation results while domestic politics and information asymmetries both account for non‐ratification of the treaty. Institutionalist arguments on the constraining effects of international norms and institutions as well as explanations focusing on negotiation skills are of minor importance. Moreover, the nature of the Swiss intra‐governmental setting at the federal level did not encourage the Swiss negotiators to exploit all means during the different stages of the bargaining process. The article concludes by illuminating a number of policy observations in the broader context of Swiss foreign relations and indicating avenues for further research.     

Multialignment and Indian Foreign Policy under Narendra Modi

This article examines India’s emerging approach to foreign policy: multialignment. It argues that since the mid-2000s India has developed multialignment as a means of achieving what it perceives as its core interests and ideals in international relations. Characterised by an emphasis on engagement in regional multilateral institutions, the use of strategic partnerships, and what is termed ‘normative hedging’, multialignment is being utilised to boost India’s economic development and national security, as well as to project influence and promote its values. The article traces the emergence of this strategy during the governments of Manmohan Singh and its implementation and extension by the new government of Narendra Modi. It analyses the key arguments that have been presented in its favour and the ways in which it was been put into practice. It concludes with a brief assessment of multialignment as a strategy, as well as the prospect that it will deliver the dividends expected by India’s foreign policy elite.     

South African foreign policy in the post-Mbeki period

President Thabo Mbeki's resignation in September 2008 six months before the expected end of his term was triggered by the recall issued by the ANC National Executive Committee. It is highly unlikely that any major changes in foreign policy will be made by the caretaker government of President Kgalema Motlanthe before the 2009 elections. However, the significant changes in the domestic political environment signal the start of a new era in South Africa's transformation — what might be called the ‘post post-apartheid period’. This paper explores what those changes might entail, especially in the realm of foreign policy. After reflecting on the legacy of Mbeki's foreign policy, the paper considers the potential implications of the relevant resolutions agreed at the December 2007 ANC National Conference in Polokwane. Constraints on South African foreign policy towards the African continent are considered, especially with regard to perception versus reality of its economic and political hegemony as well as its complex identity as a nation. In light of this analysis and the inevitable impact of the current global economic crisis, the paper concludes with a series of recommendations for a new vision and agenda for South Africa's foreign policy under the government to be elected in 2009.     

Demonizing the enemy: the influence of Russian state-sponsored media on American audiences

ABSTRACT

There is growing anxiety about the influence of international propaganda on public opinion. Under what conditions can countries shift foreign public opinion against an adversary? Does making people aware that news is coming from a foreign source mitigate its influence? I examine these questions in the context of Russian propaganda in the United States. I subject subgroups of Americans to an article from Russia Today (RT), a Russian international television network, criticizing the Ukrainian government. I vary whether audiences are aware of the message source, and/or the intentions, of the Russian-funded network. I show that exposure to information about Ukrainian human rights violations lowers Americans’ evaluations of Ukraine irrespective of source awareness – indicating that making people more aware of foreign propaganda does not attenuate its influence. The findings have important implications for understanding the micro-level effects of international propaganda and the effectiveness of counter-propaganda strategies.     

Evolution of subnational foreign economic relations in Nigeria

ABSTRACT

In the current dispensation of civilian rule in Nigeria (1999–present), her subnational governments (SNGs) have increasingly been engaging in economic activities which impact on how Nigeria conducts her international economic interactions. This emerging trend is at variance with the existing legal provisions under the 1999 Nigerian Constitution, which preclude SNGs from this policy space. This article examines the evolution of the constitutional framework for SNG involvement in Nigeria’s foreign economic relations since independence. It is the argument in this article that the exclusion of SNGs from foreign affairs under the 1999 Constitution is a departure from the original configuration at independence. It is further argued that the recent episodes of SNG involvement in international economic activities are occurring despite the constitutional restrictions owing to external factors such as globalisation and internal factors such the growing need among SNGs to find alternative ways to fund their economic development objectives.     

Foreign Policy “On the Cheap”: Latvia’s Foreign Policy Experience from the Economic Crisis

This article assesses whether the reduction of budgetary allocations to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia in 2008–2012 led to more modest foreign policy in the sense of both objectives and execution. After assessing four goals of Latvian foreign policy since 2008 – regional cooperation, bilateral development cooperation, facilitation of Latvia’s economic interests abroad, and relations with the Latvian diaspora – the authors conclude that the decrease in funding for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had little impact on Latvia’s ability to achieve foreign policy objectives.     

Compromising coalitions and duplicitous diplomacy: US support for Tajikistan after 9/11 and its security implications

This article investigates the development of democracy in Tajikistan and analyzes what has earned it the most international acclaim: its secular-Islamic governing coalition. The investigation reveals a compromised and illegitimate coalition that, with American collusion in local regime repression, poses great dangers to international security. The article argues that government repression, leading to increasing radicalization, combines with foreign aid to damage long-term democracy potential in Tajikistan but also works against global security interests by creating doubt about American intentions and possibly allowing a concomitant rise in Islamic radicalism.     

泰国他信政府"进取性"外交政策透视

他信政府上台执政三年多来,围绕恢复和发展经济这个中心任务,推行"进取性"外交政策.泰国外交关系全面发展,为国内经济恢复与发展创造了和平稳定的国际环境,开拓了国际市场,同时也使泰国的国际地位和影响得以全面提高,引起东南亚各国以及世界主要大国的关注.     

浅析韩国的绿色增长战略

绿色增长正在成为世界谋求经济社会可持续发展的重要经济模式,各国都在寻求实现绿色增长的发展战略。1997亚洲金融风暴、2008年以来的世界性经济衰退促使积极探索经济转型新路的韩国加快了战略转型的步伐。韩国政府为此提出并开始实施“低碳绿色增长战略”,制订并发表了“绿色增长国家战略与五年计划”以及相关的法规,详细阐述了韩国推进这一战略计划的长远规划、战略目标、实施计划、政策措施等,并建立了从中央到地方的组织实施机构。韩国积极推动的绿色增长战略充分揭示了其未来经济发展的基本方向,意在谋求实现经济增长方式的转变、构建未来经济长期稳定发展的新增长模式和动力。     

Sub-state diplomacy and the foreign policy-development nexus in South Africa

This article examines the role of sub-state diplomacy, defined as the transnational linkages of sub-national governments, in bridging the gap between foreign policy and the domestic development agenda in South Africa. It argues that, as territorial sub-state actors, provinces and municipalities are strategically positioned to use their international relations to make foreign policy more responsive to domestic socio-economic priorities. In the South African case, however, this potential is yet to be fully realised, mainly because of institutional fragmentation of the foreign policy apparatus, but also owing to enduring challenges in the foreign activities of sub-national governments. The article concludes by making the case for a new diplomatic paradigm in South Africa, one that actively promotes and harnesses the foreign activities and capacities of different national stakeholders, including those of sub-national governments, in the interest of the domestic development agenda.     

Towards Development-Oriented Foreign Policy in Latin America: The Cases of Ecuador and Chile

Latin American nations have, in varying degrees, struggled to form a foreign policy which successfully incorporates developmental issues. Through an institutional analysis, this article identifies the institutional frameworks within which a development-oriented foreign policy (DOFP) is more prone to emerge. It is argued that DOFP has not been able to be consolidated, as foreign policy has primarily remained a tool for regime survival. This is largely because of the institutional exclusiveness and presidentialism embedded in Latin American diplomacy – making foreign policy notoriously vulnerable to regime appropriation. By conducting a comparison between Ecuadorean and Chilean foreign policy, the article sheds light on the institutional components which have allowed the latter to successfully incorporate a development agenda and the former to stumble in its efforts.     

Edward Gough Whitlam, 1916–2014: An Assessment of His Political Significance

Gough Whitlam’s political significance lies in the first instance in his leading the Australian Labor Party into office at federal level in December 1972 after 23 years in opposition. As prime minister he instituted wide-ranging domestic reforms expanding the involvement of the Commonwealth government into many areas affecting the lives of ordinary Australians. He faced a declining economic situation and a parliamentary opposition determined to impede his reforms; the blocking of supply in the Senate culminated in Whitlam’s dismissal by the governor-general on 11 November 1975. In foreign policy, Whitlam repositioned Australia as an active middle power. His opening to China coincided with the Sino-American normalisation, leading to a new direction in Australian foreign policy that gained momentum in subsequent years; the fundamentals of the Australian relationship with the United States remained intact. Whitlam was motivated by a vision of ‘positive equality’ in government services as the basis of social democracy. From a contemporary perspective there is less faith in the efficacy of government action than was the case with Whitlam. His government bears comparison with the great reform governments in the Australian Labor tradition, as well as in Canada, the United Kingdom, and even the United States.     

Foreign Investment and Trade in Cuban Development: A 50-Year Reassessment with Emphasis on the Post-1990 Period

This article provides a 50-year reassessment of foreign investment and trade in Cuba and locates this analysis within Cuban debates on development and the economics of transition. Transformations contextualised in these debates cover three periods. The 1959–1989 period was characterised by nationalisations and expropriations, the imposition of the US trade embargo, and the trade and economic assistance agreements signed with the Soviet Union. The Special Period crisis emerged in the 1990s and Cuba had to turn to foreign investment and alternative trade options while continuing to reject the adoption of open regionalism and neoliberal policies. The 2005–2008 period was characterised by Cuba's incorporation into the Bolivarian Alternative, a new regional integration model.     

Between national and European foreign policy: the role of Latvia and Romania in the EU’s policy towards Central Asia

This article explores whether and to what extent new member states of the European Union (EU) seek to pursue their national foreign policy goals towards Central Asia through the EU rather than bilaterally. To do so, it focuses on Latvia and Romania. While the article finds evidence of Romanian attempts to project its interests in the region onto the EU level, Latvia appears to rely more extensively on the EU level to pursue its goals towards Central Asia. Using insights from the literature on Europeanization of national foreign policy, the article explains this finding with reference to four variables that determine whether a member state will seek to upload its national foreign policy preferences onto the EU level, namely the perceived salience of the policy goals, the extent to which member states can carve out a niche, their perceived capabilities and the level of Europeanization of their national foreign policies.     

ANC foreign policy making during the Mbeki period: More democratic or less?

The African National Congress, as an entity distinct from government, served during the 1994–2008 period as an independent forum for debate about South Africa's foreign policy, particularly in the National Executive Committee's Subcommittee on International Relations. This debate retained the oligarchic character of the movement in exile, with few voices – Thabo Mbeki's most prominent among them – dominating the discussion, inputs from subnational party structures almost non-existent, and dissenters expected to keep quiet publicly. That said, participants in these discussions largely dismissed characterisations of Mbeki as a dictator in the foreign policy debate, noting that the predominance of his views stemmed mostly from his strong argumentation and knowledge rather than bullying. Senior ANC leaders also claimed that limited interest in foreign policy, outside of national party structures, hindered efforts to broaden participation in foreign policy formulation.     

俄罗斯对外援助体系研究

2005年以来,随着经济形势的好转和国际地位的提高,俄罗斯开始加大对外援助投入,并逐步建立起自己的对外援助体系。在对外援助政策方面,从学习借鉴西方国家的经验,将对外援助看作履行国际义务、获取国家威望的手段,到主动探索建立符合本国实际的对外援助政策体系,强调对独联体地区国家援助、“软实力”和国家利益。在对外援助管理方面,总统在对外援助政策中居于中心位置,政府负责决策执行,议会负责相关立法工作,各联邦机构分别负责各自职责范围内的对外援助行动,并成立了跨部门协调机构统筹对外援助行动。在对外援助运作方面,俄罗斯将对外援助行动列入国家计划,主要通过多边和双边渠道对外提供援助。在对外援助的评估方面,俄罗斯提出了援助预算资金使用效果评估方法,定期发布对外援助数据和报告,正在逐步完善对外援助评估体系。近年来,俄罗斯对外援助体系出现较大调整,对外援助管理权有从财政部门向外交部门、从政府向总统转移的趋势。