SPLM–NCP asymmetrical power relations jeopardise the implementation of the CPA and the future of the Sudan

ABSTRACT

The political instability that has characterised Sudanese politics since independence is attributable to political exclusion, economic neglect and marginalisation. Discrimination based on religion, language and culture has constituted the main contradictions between the masses of the Sudanese people (periphery) and the politically dominant Arabised Nubians (centre) in all the different politico-ideological hues experienced by the nation. Attempts to resolve this contradiction have left the structural imbalances inherited from the colonial administration of the Sudan intact. This explains the resurgence of war, particularly in Southern Sudan. The recent peace agreements between the National Congress Party (NCP), namely the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A); the Darfur Peace Agreement with the Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM) (Minawi); the Cairo Agreement with the National Democratic Alliance and the Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement with the Eastern Sudan Front, have left the NCP still in firm control of the oppressive state machinery. The CPA power-sharing protocol awarded the NCP a majority which institutionalises a power asymmetry that the NCP utilises to obstruct implementation of the CPA and delay the process of democratic transformation.

This article analyses the asymmetry in the NCP–SPLM partnership and power relationship. It assumes that the tragic death of Dr. John Garang de Mabior is a major cause of the political weakness demonstrated by the SPLM since 2005. This power imbalance jeopardises the CPA implementation and the future of the Sudan as a state.     

Making borders and identities in South Sudan

In newly independent South Sudan, the state's not yet fully demarcated territory plays an intriguing and in certain aspects contradictory role in shaping and defining personal and group identities. While neighbouring states’ armies and their proxies interfere with South Sudan's international sovereignty, Juba is itself active beyond its borders by supporting Sudanese rebels. Nonetheless, the ruling elite hold onto the model of the unified and centralised territorial nation-state with clearly demarcated borders. Alas, the state's failure to territorialise its authority creates hybridity with regard to territorial control, which impacts negatively on the state's domestic legitimacy but also weakens attempts to propagate a national identity that transcends ethnic ties. Instead, the current civil war and calls for a decentralised federal structure are evidence of the continued salience of subnational loyalties while those non-state actors, like localised militias, that fill the areas void of government presence are generally themselves sources of insecurity.     

The regional outcome of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement five years down the road: Are external forces playing a progressive role?

ABSTRACT

The Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of January 2005 is the outcome of regional and international mediation led by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)1 and the IGAD Partners’ Forum broadened to include the United States of America, Norway, the Netherlands, Canada, Italy and the United Nations. Five years into its implementation the peace agreement appears to have transformed the war between North and South Sudan into a series of engagements of conflicting nature. Numerous contradictory actions by both the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the National Congress Party (NCP) (the main political forces behind the CPA) have been noted during the ongoing implementation process (Grawert forthcoming 2010; Grawert and El-Battahani 2005; Wassara 2008). Although internal Sudanese forces are the key actors in implementing the CPA, external forces are critical in providing the support and pressure needed for a complete realisation of the peace deal. The New Regionalism Approach (NRA), as advanced by Grant and Soderbäum (2003), is instrumental in understanding this dynamic. This article is based on the result of a study that seeks to examine why positive engagements of external forces are needed for a timely implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.     

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the questions of identity,territory and political destiny of the indigenous Nuba of the Sudan

ABSTRACT

The Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005 was successful in ending the longest war in contemporary Africa. However, its implementation has been below the expectations of several communities, particularly in the war-torn regions of the Nuba Mountains, the Southern Blue Nile and the Abyei Area, widely referred to as ‘contested’, ‘marginalised’, ‘transitional’ areas or ‘border territories’. While many interwoven causes were behind the eruption of the protracted civil wars in the Sudan (Elnur 2009; Johnson 2006; Khalid 1987), the political question of sub-national identities and their intrinsic link with specific territories (Murphy 1991; William and Smith 1993) is hypothesised here as a prime factor in extending the civil war into these three areas. Taking the Nuba and their claimed territory of the Nuba Mountains as an example, this article will, first, trace the political striving of the Nuba people and their shift from peaceful political movement to armed struggle; second, it will examine their political status during the peace negotiation process; and third, it will analyse their political responses to the outcome of the CPA and its impact on their future political choices in view of the April 2010 election results, and the projected right to self-determination for the people of Southern Sudan, to be exercised through the referenda in 2011.     

Power elites,war and postwar reconstruction in Africa: Continuities,discontinuities and paradoxes

This article interrogates the manner in which the composition, character, regeneration, and accumulation strategies of power elites and the organisation of their hegemony is being affected or unaffected by recent developments, most especially, civil wars and their corollary, postwar reconstruction, in Africa. By seeking to understand how conflicts and post-conflict reconstruction alter or transform the character, recruitment and role of power elites, and the operational context (the nature of the state) in Africa, this article draws attention to the prospects of transforming the nature of leadership in Africa. I contend that the capacity for violence and terror by individuals (especially young combatants who were previously marginalised) and armed groups has become a new marker of elitism and a leverage on peace agreements. Moreover, post-Cold War conflicts in Africa have accentuated the emergence of war-making power elites as ‘executors’ and ‘trustees’ of peace treaties, or ‘peace celebrities’ with considerable leverage on the course and outcomes of postwar reconstruction. The instability in post-1989 Liberia is used as a case study to reflect this claim. I also cite examples of members and leaders of armed groups in countries such as Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and the Democratic Republic of Congo where the capacity for violence translated into political rewards and gains in peace agreements.     

The European Union in Sudan: A Missed Opportunity?

Abstract

International organisations active in Africa are often criticised for their ineffectiveness. So too is the European Union (EU), which is also accused of failing to assume a more prominent conflict management role in war-torn countries. This article examines the EU’s capacity and readiness to take on such a role in one such country, the former Republic of Sudan, home to Africa’s longest-running civil wars and the first ‘genocide’ of the 21st century. It begins by outlining the EU’s record in Darfur and the North–South Peace Process. Drawing upon 25 interviews and Hill’s ‘capabilities–expectations model’, it then questions whether the EU’s ‘capabilities’ (resources, instruments, unity) were ‘fit for purpose’ in Sudan’s hostile target setting. It concludes by identifying settings that have been more propitious for a conflict-related management function and by suggesting that the EU should better manage expectations about future security roles.     

The dams of Northern Sudan and the policy of demographic engineering

ABSTRACT

This article discusses the deteriorating situation in Northern Sudan linked to policies of demographic engineering, embedded in plans for the further construction of dams along the Nile River in the North by the Government of Sudan. Although the generation of power and agricultural irrigation are the declared purpose of the dams, the fact is, these dams will, as past dam constructions have, cause a massive displacement of the Nubian, Manasir and Amri-Hamdab people far from their ancestral lands. With the collaboration of the Egyptian government the areas vacated will be repopulated with Egyptian peasants, as part of both governments’ plan to alter the demographics of North Sudan.     

Destined for deadlock? Russia,Ukraine, and the unfulfilled Minsk agreements

ABSTRACT

Bringing peace, security, and stability to the war-torn region of Donbas has proven to be a challenging – some would say near-impossible – task. The “Minsk II” agreement, signed in February 2015, was supposed to put an end to the armed hostilities, resolve the underlying political issues, and gradually restore Ukrainian government control of the country’s eastern border. None of this has happened. Despite continuous Western support and pressure, progress in the implementation of the peace plan signed in Minsk has been slow, also after the much-anticipated Paris summit of the “Normandy Four” (Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France) in December 2019. This article discusses the underlying causes of the current stalemate, emphasizing factors such as the inherently complex nature of the conflict, the process through which “Minsk II” came into being, the vague and ambiguous language of this and other agreements, practical challenges related to the timing and sequencing of agreed-upon measures, and Russia’s persistent non-acknowledgement of its role in the conflict.     

Institutional reform and political party engagement: Challenges to democratic transformation in post-CPA Sudan

ABSTRACT

This article looks at the role of institutions and political parties as main agents of the democratisation process in the Sudan, following the signing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). A review of the historic weaknesses of intermittent democratic rule in the Sudan, since its independence in 1956 and through to the signing of the CPA, is offered. Those elements of the CPA critical to institutional reform and democratisation are identified and their implementation assessed, including the results of the CPA-mandated elections held in April 2010. The four principal political parties and their capacities to contribute to democratic transformation are analysed.     

A failed 'nationalist' endeavor: Egyptian-Sudanese textile trade, 1935-1945

This article examines the attempts of Egypt's nationalist elite to develop economic ties with the Sudan in the hope of strengthening their argument for sovereignty over Sudanese regions. While reviewing Egyptian 'claims' of a culturally, historically, linguistically, and religiously united Nile valley, I examine what scholars of nationalism have theorized are essential conditions and objectives in successful nationalist movements--emphasizing the virtually irrelevant position accorded economic bonds typically. The bulk of the article is an analysis of Egyptian-Sudanese textile trade between 1935 and 1945. This analysis includes an examination of the institutional means established to foster trade with the Sudan, a brief statistical assessment of the textile trade, and an explanation of the causes of failure in these endeavors. Finally, the conclusion links this case study to the question of whether or not economic development, as a nationalist activity binding regions together, can occur prior to state formation.     

Globalisation: A ranking of South Africa and other emerging market economies

Peacekeeping has grown in significance over the years within international relations, yet only a few analyses have applied the frameworks of international relations theory to the issues of peacekeeping. This paper begins with a view to broaden that analysis, and to look at three of the African countries that have contributed significant resources over the years to help restore peace on their continent: Nigeria, Ethiopia and Rwanda. The following article analyses these three countries (and not South Africa, which features a great deal already in the literature) from the point of view of their military capabilities, including sources of training and equipment, after assessing the motivations, challenges and opportunities of each to contribute to peacekeeping in Africa. From that basis, the article assesses the positive and negative impacts these militaries bring to the region's conflicts, as well as the impact of their troops for the sending nations. Lastly, the article assesses the concept of ‘African solutions to African problems’, and argues that this proposition, while worth pursuing, is not a realistic one for peacekeeping and peacebuilding efforts on the continent in the short term, mainly owing to funding and equipment restraints.     

Negotiating Natural Resource Conflicts: A Study of State Practices,Peasant Mobilisation and Sub‐National Government in the Peruvian Andes

This article explores the dynamics of natural resource conflicts and local government in the Peruvian Andes. Recent publications have found that efficiency and democratic accountability in local government are key variables for mitigating conflict. By focusing on the ethnographies of two conflicts and as participant observers within local government, we argue that by re‐framing the analytical focus within local histories and current practices of natural resource conflicts, we can better make sense of the dynamics of current land politics. The article presents a sequential framework that explores key moments of the relations between the state and peasant communities during natural resource conflicts. Through this framework, we argue that natural resource conflicts are negotiated in a sphere of politics that transcends the state's institutional and legal limits.     

This land is my land: the Ethio-Sudan boundary and the need to rectify arbitrary colonial boundaries

Ethiopia and Sudan share a common boundary of over 1600 km which was drawn through a series of treaties between Ethiopia and the colonial powers of Britain and Italy. To date, this boundary has not been clearly demarcated. In 2007, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, the current ruling government, entered into a secret agreement with the Sudan to make adjustments on the border. This paper identifies the major factors that have frustrated efforts to address the Ethio-Sudan boundary problem and also proposes solutions on how Ethiopia and Sudan could resolve their differences. The analysis reveals that political, social and cultural factors; the decision to adopt the western concept of the boundary; and the failure to recognise the historic and cultural constructs have contributed to the frustration of negotiations on the border. The paper proposes that Ethiopia and Sudan embrace the African Union Border Program, which encourages mutual cooperation, regional integration and the building of communities with strong economic and cultural ties.     

Mbeki and the peace process in Africa: A contribution to Africa's renaissance

Abstract

Critics of South African President Thabo Mbeki's constant, consistent and continuous involvement in the continental wars and conflicts insist that the president's prime focus should be South Africa, and solving its basic problems of poverty and unemployment. However, it is important to highlight the duel relationship between South Africa and the continent during the long struggle against apartheid. Mozambique, Angola, and in part Zimbabwe, Zambia, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland are what they are now because of the reign of terror unleashed on them as a result of their direct support to the South African liberation movements. The poverty and starvation apparent in Angola and Mozambique were perpetrated by the white minority regime's constant bombing of, and acts of violence against these two countries, and direct support of the anti‐government forces. As for the South African liberation movements, they continued to exist and function mainly because of the support offered to them by their independent African brothers. It must be realised that without this support, which for some countries was very costly (i.e., economically, socially and psychologically), liberation would not have come when it did. It has fallen on the shoulders of the newly liberated South Africa to try and intervene in the wars that cause instability on the continent and to try to bring about peace.     

Uganda in Regional and International Peacekeeping Operations

Since attaining independence in 1962, Uganda has only seriously contributed to regional and international peacekeeping on two occasions—in Liberia and Somalia. Due to the internal political upheavals that rocked the country in the 1960s through 1980s, Uganda’s capacity to engage in international peacekeeping was seriously curtailed. As a result of engaging in the Liberia and Somalia peace operations, the country has built capacity to engage in peacekeeping. However, recently Uganda has used its participation in peacekeeping missions, especially that in Somalia, as a leverage to fend-off criticisms for its involvement in conflicts in the Great Lakes region.     

Putting violent armed conflict in the center of the Salween hydropower debates

Regional economic integration has become the dominant development pathway promoted, endorsed, and followed by many developing country governments in South East Asia and globally. Focusing on hydropower development, this article shows how forces of globalization manifested in the Myanmar government’s strategies to promote economic growth are shaping the Salween River basin’s development trajectory. Contesting the general belief that economic development would help the country’s transition to full democracy and achieve peace, it illustrates how hydropower development plans in the basin are closely interlinked with human rights issues. Well known for its long histories of violent conflict involving the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups in various states, hydropower development in the Salween River is not only linked to the ongoing peace process in Myanmar but could also have direct implications on the actual significance of the process. Despite the signing of nationwide ceasefire agreements in 2012, hydropower dam projects could contribute to and trigger reoccurrences of violent armed conflict. Recognizing this conflict-prone and politically fragile condition as the main characteristics of Salween water governance is essential if we are to strive for sustainable and just development.     

The United Nations and the future peace

The end of the Cold War promised a great improvement in the UN's effectiveness as a framework for international peace and security. Yet, it soon became evident that the UN was having great difficulty in coming to grips with countless new conflicts. Several practical measures are suggested for making the UN a more credible and relevant instrument/or a more peaceful and less destructive post‐Cold War world     

The Lansdowne “Peace Letter” of 1917 and the Prospect of Peace by Negotiation with Germany

In late November 1917, Lord Lansdowne, one of the most senior of British Unionist politicians, wrote a letter to the editor of the Daily Telegraph. The letter asked for the war aims of the Entente and the USA to be “coordinated” and suggested that a moderate revision of war aims might bring a negotiated peace nearer. The letter appeared to ally Lansdowne with the British Radicals, who had been close to President Wilson (until April 1917), and had argued for a negotiated peace to end the war since the autumn of 1916. The letter was ferociously denounced by the Northcliffe press, and by many of Lansdowne's Unionist colleagues. It was supposedly a “plea for surrender” and “a national misfortune”. Nevertheless, it touched off a series of new departures in the search for a negotiated settlement: House's visit to the inter Allied Conference in December, the Labour War Aims Memorandum, Lloyd George's Caxton Hall speech, Wilson's Fourteen Points Address, and the beginning of a public parley with the Central Powers in the replies of Hertling and Czernin in January 1918. The paper examines the possibilities for a negotiated peace during the winter of 1917–1918, that is, in the period between the publication of Lansdowne's famous letter and the sudden Versailles “Knockout Blow” Declaration of February 1918 which rejected out of hand any prospect of negotiation. The paper examines Wilson's ambiguous position in this debate, and in particular the evolution of moderate opinion inside Germany in reaction to these events. The paper suggests the unfortunate enfeeblement of moderate opinion in Germany in the face of the apparent triumph of “knockout blow” opinion in the Entente camp.     

Arab Identity and Ideology in Sudan: The Politics of Language, Ethnicity, and Race

In what is now Sudan there occurred over the centuries a processof ta'rib, or Arabization, entailing the gradual spread of bothArab identity and the Arabic language among northern peoples.After the Anglo-Egyptian conquest of 1898, British colonialpolicies favoured a narrow elite from within these ‘Arab’communities. Members of this elite went on to develop a conceptionof a self-consciously Sudanese Arabic national identity, inthe process adapting the term ‘Sudanese’ (sudani),which derived from an Arabic word for blackness and previouslyhad servile connotations. At decolonization in the 1950s, thesenationalists turned ta'rib, into an official policy that soughtto propagate Arabic quickly throughout a territory where scoresof languages were spoken. This article considers the historicaldiffusion of Sudanese Arabic-language culture and Arab identity,contrasts this with the post-colonial policy of Arabization,and analyses the relevance of the latter for civil conflictsin Southern Sudan, the Nuba Mountains, and, more recently, Darfur.Far from spreading Arabness, Arabization policy sharpened non-Araband, in some cases, self-consciously ‘African’ (implyingculturally pluralist) identities. Arabization policy also accompanied,in some quarters, the growth of an ideology of Arab culturaland racial supremacy that is now most evident in Darfur. This publication was made possible in part by grants from theCarnegie Corporation of New York (Carnegie Scholars Program,2006) and the University Research Foundation of the Universityof Pennsylvania, but the statements made and views expressedare solely the responsibility of the author. The author wouldalso like to thank Benjamin F. Soares, Karin Willemse, VijayBalasubramanian, and two anonymous referees for their feedbackon earlier drafts of this article; the African Studies Centreat the University of Leiden for hosting the seminar (April 2007)where this work was first presented; and Tukufu Zuberi, EveTroutt Powell and the Africana Studies Center of the Universityof Pennsylvania for organizing a symposium on Darfur (1 March2007) that helped to bring ideas into focus.