莫迪时代的印缅关系:动力与进展

近年来,中国在缅甸影响力有所减弱,印缅关系则稳步提升。这种变动的地区权力结构促使印度积极主动发展对缅关系,以寻求改变中国在缅甸影响力占优势的现状。同时,随着印度对中缅关系战略疑虑的减轻,以及推动"东向政策"的需要,印度优先发展与缅甸的经济关系。此外,印度对边境和海洋安全的持续关注也推动了印缅在安全领域加强合作。     

缅甸政治经济改革前景及对中国影响

近年来，缅甸采取了一系列政治、经济改革措施，逐步实现政府执政和国家发展的转型。缅甸的政治改革措施前所未有，引发了国际社会的关注，并收到了一些积极效果。未来，缅甸的改革进程将继续推进，但面临诸多深层矛盾，这些矛盾和问题会对中缅关系造成一定影响，但中缅双方的合作主流不会改变，中缅关系发展大势向好。     

缅甸改革对中缅关系的影响及中国的对策

缅甸吴登盛政府上台后实施了一系列措施,拉开了缅甸社会改革的序幕。大刀阔斧的改革引起国际社会高度关注,西方国家纷纷与缅甸新政府接触,发展关系。尤其是昂山素季当选议员之后,美国、欧洲与日本加快了对缅甸的战略争夺。作为缅甸传统友好邻国的中国,与缅甸建立了全面战略合作伙伴关系,两国关系发展较为良好。文章将分析缅甸的改革进程对中缅关系的影响,并思考如何进一步推动中缅关系发展。     

美缅关系的改善及对中国的影响

奥巴马政府对缅的务实接触政策使美缅关系发生急剧变化,成为国际社会关注热点。文章认为,美国改善与缅甸关系,是其全球战略调整的重要组成部分;美国主要出于为"重返东南亚"战略打开重要突破口、在缅甸建立美式民主、抢占缅甸市场等方面的考虑,同时也有遏制中国的意图,并在这些方面初步取得成效。美缅关系的改善也有利于缅甸使西方国家取消制裁而摆脱外交孤立状态,这给中国带来不容忽视的影响。     

缅甸华人经济的黄金岁月——缅甸华人经济研究之三

１９５４年至１９６２年以吴努总理为首的缅甸自由同盟政府执政的时期，这个时期缅甸华人经济的特点之一，是与中缅政治、外交关系紧密相连。中缅关系越好，缅甸华人经济也就更好。以下按产业对仰光的华人经济况进行简单的阐述。１、进出口业。１９５８年，仰光有进出口权...     

缅甸改革的难点、走势与对华影响

缅甸正在进行的改革是一场自上而下的全面的改革,改革的难点在于国家认同、宗教和解与潜在宪法危机等几个方面。鉴于缅甸是中国的邻国,且具有重要地缘战略地位,其改革成败将对中国产生很大影响。中国应该密切关注缅甸改革进程,在经济领域努力拓展并做到双赢,保持在缅优势地位与影响力,同时与缅甸各方政治力量保持全面接触与友好关系,并将缅甸作为发展与东盟关系的重要平台,最终以缅甸为战略通道实现"走向印度洋"的战略目标。     

冷战后缅甸的对华政策

在冷战期间,中国对缅甸采取党对党、政府对政府的双重政策。１９８８ 年缅甸发生政治动乱后,中国终止了对缅共的支持。１９８９ 年４ 月缅共因发生内讧而解体,年迈的领导人被遗弃,这一中缅关系中的敏感问题不复存在。鉴于共同的世界观,中缅双方高层人员往来频繁。双方高级将领也经常互访,以加强缅军与中国人民解放军之间的人事关系     

缅甸政治转型与吴登盛政府对华政策调整

缅甸在2010—2011年间发生了政治转型,接替军人执政的吴登盛政府在初期较大幅度地调整了对华政策,但是这种调整是有限度的,缅甸并没有完全倒向西方国家,而是继续和中国保持较为密切的政治接触。实证分析说明,政治制度和意识形态并不是影响吴登盛政府对外政策的关键因素,政权的合法性、基于地缘政治的国家安全、经济发展的需求是导致2011—2016年间中缅关系经历波动期、回摆期和稳定期的根本原因。这三方面因素也是后来民盟政府处理对华关系时的主要考量。     

后军人时代缅甸的“双头政治”及其外交影响

缅甸进入后军人时代后,国内呈现由军人集团和文官政府组成的"双头政治"权力格局,这种格局是前军人集团政治设计的结果,对现在缅甸的外交政策有很大影响。在外交政策的制定、落实和应对国际压力的过程中,"双头政治"的博弈因少数民族的政治参与而变得更加复杂,体现为军人、文官政府和少数民族的"三方博弈"。在缅北民族和解进程中,各方政治力量的博弈使得缅甸陷入既需要外部帮助斡旋而又让外部难以有效参与的困境。在中资大项目问题上,这些博弈导致缅甸对华政策出现"依赖"与"反依赖"纠葛,而中缅关系无法有效推进的局面。在若开罗兴亚人问题上,各方博弈更使缅甸陷入国际道义、政治与法律围攻的窘境。究其根本,缅甸仍停留在"求稳定"与"求发展"的初级阶段,而国内长期存在的政治认同分歧与族群割裂,使其在后军人时代可能进入另一个"乱局"。军人势力仍然强大、文官政权软弱、少数民族各自进行不同程度的国际动员,各方"自助"而"不得助"的客观形势,使得民盟政府初期良好的外交环境日益恶劣。因国内政治而不断引发外交危机,缅甸孜孜以求的独立自主、中立主义和韧性外交受到极大影响,缅甸的复兴梦与发展梦未有穷期。     

美缅关系改善对西南油气进口运输通道的影响

中缅油气管道项目的实施标志着西南油气进口运输通道初步成型,这对于我国实现油气进口运输通道多元化具有重要战略意义。但美国和缅甸关系迅速改善使中缅油气管道的建设和运营前景开始受到影响。美国通过促进缅甸民主改革、支持缅甸国内外各种非政府组织、介入缅甸民族和解进程及解除美国能源企业在缅投资禁令等方式对中缅油气管道项目施加影响。在美缅关系迅速改善的背景下,如何维护西南油气进口运输通道的安全将是我国面临的重大外交课题。     

Locating Kaliningrad And KÖNigsberg In Russian And German Collective Identity Discourses And Political Symbolism In The 750Th Anniversary Celebrations Of 2005

This article begins by briefly exploring issues of conflict and control in relation to the 750th anniversary of the city of Kaliningrad/Königsberg. An analysis of the tensions between Russian regional (Kaliningrad) and national (federal) identity discourses on the political symbolism of the 750th anniversary commemoration is offered, using Russian media reports and interviews conducted in Kaliningrad. German narratives on the political symbolism of the anniversary events and their implications for German national identity discourses are investigated via interviews conducted in Kaliningrad and Germany, German media reports, books, films and a theater production about Königsberg. Particular attention is given to the impact of the German expellee organizations on framing the discourse about Königsberg in contemporary Germany. The article will conclude by comparing and contrasting the various discourses and interpretations of the anniversary in the Kaliningrad region, Russia and Germany.     

'Adorned with the Mix of Faith and Profanity that Intoxicates the People': The Festival of the Senhor do Bonfim in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, 1930–19541

This essay looks at a formative period in the history of the festival of the Senhor do Bonfim, one of Salvador's most important religious festivals. The essay focuses on the public ritual washing of the Church of Bonfim and the tensions between the Catholic Church, who periodically banned the washing from the larger festival, and a variety of historical actors including politicians, journalists, authors and working-class Salvadorans whose efforts eventually contributed to the lifting of the prohibition once and for all in 1953. The author suggests that the defence of the washing both reflected and contributed to a larger hegemonic process taking place in Salvador after 1930, as actors within Salvador's dominant class accepted and even praised Afro-Bahian cultural practices, including them as integral parts of a larger Bahian identity.     

The FBI's Role in Expelling Germans from Ecuador During the 1940s

The expulsion from Latin America of immigrants from axis countries and their descendants is an important but little‐studied episode of the Second World War. The role of the US, and in particular that of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), in their removal has largely disappeared from historical memory. This article examines how the FBI advanced US commercial interests, and in the process harmed vulnerable people who were subject to these expulsions.     

INDIA’S DEMONETISATION: MODI’S ‘NUDGE’ TO CHANGE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR

This article offers an account of the impact of Indian PM Narendra Modi’s decision in November 2016 to withdraw suddenly all Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes from circulation in India with the avowed intent of combatting fraud, tax avoidance and other economic problems. The article assesses the impact from the demonetisation in November to the March 2017 Indian regional elections, where wide-scale victories for Modi’s political party, the BJP, appear to have vindicated his reforms. The article provides an analysis of the political background of the period, as well as looking at the economic and societal impact of the changes, including the way in which the behaviour of Indian citizens has been ‘nudged’ with particular regard to use of banking, transactions, social effects, and payment of tax.     

The Health of the Rurality: The Encuesta de Folklore and Popular Healing Practices in Tucumán, 1921

This article examines healing practices among the rural inhabitants of Tucumán in the opening quarter of the twentieth century through a reading of the 1921 National Folklore Survey. It argues that popular medical practices, referred to as curanderismos (popular healing), continued into the twentieth century not only as cultural practice of the popular classes but as necessity due to limited investments in public health in the rural regions on the part of the national and provincial government.     

DROUGHT: THE ACHILLES HEEL OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

Approximately 97% of the country is experiencing drought conditions. Due to gross water mismanagement and its damaging impact on the country, Iran faces the worst situation in water resources of any industrialized nation. Tens of thousands of villages have been deserted and most of the major urban centers have passed their limits to absorb new rural migrants. Some officials predict that in less than 25 years, 50 million Iranians would be displaced from their current homes because of the pressing ecological conditions. This is happening at the time that the gap between the grassroots and the state has widened and there is increasing dissatisfaction with governance plagued by corruption, nepotism, economic mismanagement, unaccountability and a foreign policy which has produced various regional and trans-regional adversaries. This paper evaluates the pressing ecological challenges in Iran and by conceptualizing political resilience it critically evaluates whether the Islamic Republic is prepared to face the devastating ecological crisis and its socio-economic consequences.