Indonesia and the implementation of the bogor goals

At APEC’s second “summit” meeting, in November 1994, President Suharto of Indonesia steered the leaders of the eighteen member countries, or territories, to accept the vision of “free trade in the region” by 2020, with the developed economies achieving the goal by 2010. Six months later, Indonesia introduced a package of liberalization measures that combined its commitments in ASEAN, the Uruguay Round agreements, and the APEC process. It has hoped thereby to show others what might be done to achieve “the Bogor goals.” Arifin M. Siregar, the Indonesian ambassador to the United States, was Indonesia’s minister of trade in 1988–1993. He was previously governor of the Bank of Indonesia (1983–1988). Before joining the bank as an executive director in 1971, Dr. Siregar was an economic affairs officer at the United Nations, New York (1961–1963); an economic officer at the United Nations, Beirut, Lebanon (1963–1965); and a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC (1965–1971).     

Perception of risks associated with economic sanctions: the case of Russian manufacturing

This paper is focused on assessing the risk factors for Russian manufacturing firms posed by sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU, US, and other countries in 2014. While there is an extensive literature assessing the successes and failures of international sanctions on the economies of both those imposing and targeted by sanctions on a macroeconomic level, we are more interested in trying to understand the corporate response – i.e. which firms evaluate the introduction and increasing scale of economic sanctions as a threat to their corporate strategy, and their possible reactions aimed at adjusting to a changing environment due to the geopolitical shock. Our research, based on a recent survey of manufacturing companies, provides evidence that over the last decade Russian manufacturing firms have become much more integrated into the global economy than is commonly assumed, through foreign direct investment, foreign trade (including imports of both technological equipment and raw materials and components), international partnerships, and by extensively supplying foreign companies that operate in Russia. Considering the self-selection effect of the top-performing firms in terms of foreign trade, we can state that sanctions could prove most harmful not only for the targeted firms, but for the entire population of better-performing and globalized firms involved in foreign trade with the EU and Ukraine. Thus, the impact of the sanctions on the prospects of the Russian manufacturing sector may be very strong over the medium-to-long term.     

The Asian situation and Japan’s response: With an emphasis on the Korean Peninsula

Mr. Kuranari is a former minister of foreign affairs of Japan. This paper was originally presented at a conference on “Problems of Peace, Security, and Economic Cooperation in the Asian and Pacific Region,” cosponsored by the Institute for Sino-Soviet Studies of George Washington University and Yomiuri Shimbun of Tokyo, Japan, May 19–21, 1988, in Washington, D.C.     

Garment Ateliers and Women Workers in Istanbul: Wives,Daughters and Azerbaijani Immigrants

Not only multinational corporations but also small-scale firms are recognized as part and parcel of global commodity production. Most of this production is destined for western economies but not all commodities of industrial production end up in these countries. There is a high volume of trade taking place between developing regions. This article aims to highlight industrial production for the shuttle trade in the Laleli market of Istanbul and the central role that women's and immigrants' labour plays in this production. Garment ateliers producing for the Laleli market are usually operated as family establishments in which tapping into cheap female and immigrant labour through kin networks has been a main form of survival for the ateliers and has generated a successful internationally trading industry.     

Harmonizing investment incentives in the APEC process

Security of access to markets is critically important in international trade in goods and services. Security is also critically important to foreign direct investment. With the “globalization” of production, international attention has been turning to improving the institutional environment for FDI, especially in developing economies. In APEC, the focus has been on principles and a non-binding code, but in due course the focus will have to shift to a binding agreement with rules that instill the confidence needed for providers of capital to invest in the major infrastructure projects that will make a difference in East Asia’s development. The focus here is on limits on the level of investment incentives that governments can use to attract foreign investors.     

China and the Worldwide Search for Oil Security

The notion of oil security on a global scale is problematic because of the diverging perspectives with which oil-importing countries and oil-exporting countries view energy security. Oil-importing countries are interested in “oil supply” while oil-exporting countries focus on “oil demand.” This leaves ample space for major powers to maneuver within the complex political-economic dynamics associated with oil trade. China has been no exception.

This commentary addresses the international debate that has emerged concerning the geo-strategic and geo-economic motivations behind China's pursuit of offshore oil supply. By examining China's oil-related overseas investments in Sudan we shed light on some of the business and political complexities associated with the China-Sudan relationship. In the view of many Chinese observers, Sudan has in terms of oil exploration been a Chinese success story while in the view of many foreign observers, China's dealings in Sudan are the very reason why China has faced harsh international criticism of its overseas oil operations.

Instead of debating whether or not China has the right, just as all oil-importing countries do, to pursue its own route to oil security we encourage oil-importing countries to re-examine the existing mechanisms of oil trade. It is in the interest of China as well as the established economies to collaborate in shaping a new global structure for oil trade.     

Divergent paths,divergent outcomes: linking differences in economic reform to levels of US foreign direct investment and business in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

This article compares two transition economies that have diverged in their progress on important economic reform areas and then seeks to link these differences to their resulting levels of investment and business. For this study, interviews were conducted with firm representatives that had invested or conducted business in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in order to determine the areas of reform that were the most important for their investment and business decisions. The analysis indicates a relationship between Kazakhstan's advanced economic reforms in such areas as foreign investment legislation, tax legislation, banking system reform, and higher levels of investment and business. Uzbekistan's lack of progress in these reform areas has affected the level of investment in the country, but not the number of firms conducting business. This was primarily because firms could secure financing for the business through the US Export–Import Bank.     

Japan-Asia economic relations: Trade, investment, and the economic crisis

Japan has been and will continue to be an important economic player in the Asian region through its internationalization policy involving trade, foreign investments, aid, technical and other forms of economic cooperation. More recently, despite its own domestic problems, Japan has extended financial and other forms of assistance and support to the Asian economies which have been hit by the economic crisis. As it is in its interests that the Asian region survives and recover, Japan will indeed continue to lend a helping hand to Asia, either through unilateral or multilateral forms of assistance or both. Due to growing interdependence, Asia needs Japan and Japan needs Asia. This article analyzes Japan's economic relations with Asia. In particular, it hopes to present an overview of Japan’s involvement in Asia through trade and investments prior to the Asian economic crisis which began in July 1997. Moreover, this article provides an assessment of the crisis and identifies Japan’s responses and involvement towards the economic recovery of the crisis-hit economies in the region. The article draws from earlier versions of various papers presented at conferences and seminars in Washington, D.C. (1997), Japan and Mexico (1998), and Singapore and Thailand (1999).     

Sources and Transitions of Chinese Foreign Policy: An Introduction

Chinese foreign policy has multiple sources, and the incentives that are driving its behaviour have grown from the domestic/international, as well as from regional, economic, normative, multilateral, and cultural levels. Foreign policy-making in China is becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated. This special issue is drawn from some edited papers presented in the joint workshop between Fudan and Durham Universities on Chinese foreign policy on 29–30 March 2010. By assessing the economic, domestic, regional, global and cultural sources of Chinese foreign policy, we aim to illustrate the various sources and to locate possible ways to consolidate the transitional process, and to spur future endeavour facing China’s foreign policy.     

The Korean experience in FDI and Sino-Korean relations

The possibility of regional cooperation in the Yellow Sea Rim (YSR) area has been discussed since the early 1980s. In recent years, Korean outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased rapidly and it will be growing much further. In the new phase of the global economy and the post-cold war political environment, Korean firms consider the socialist countries, especially China, to be attractive new partners for trade and investment projects. Foreign investment contributed to economic growth in developing countries. In the early stage of industrialization in the 1970s, the share of foreign firms amounted to about one-tenth of the total manufacturing employment in Korea. Similarly, outbound Korean FDI could also play an important role in the industrialization of the LDCs in Southeast Asia and China. A case study of a Korean multinational corporation reveals that the direct employment effect of Korea’s FDI is extensive in terms of money invested. In spite of the complementarity in economic structure and the phase of development between Korea and China, the prospect of Korea’s outbound FDI is not all clear. However, one can safely assume that the unit scale of FDI projects will increase. Unlike in the past, the large Korean corporations are now preparing more than a few fair-sized projects in China. The positive impact of those FDI will be significant. The YSR cooperation, if successful, could create efficient economic cooperation based on complementarity between Korea and China. The Korean outbound FDI would pave a road to such regional cooperation. This article is the revised version of a paper prepared for the International Conference on Regional Development in the Yellow Sea Rimlands, held February 18–21, 1991. The conference was cosponsored by the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, the State Science and Technology Commission of China, and the East-West Center of Honolulu, Hawaii.     

Restructuring the Mechanism of Foreign Economic Relations in the USSR

An up-to-date paper by the Deputy Chairman of the State Commission on Foreign Economic Relations, USSR Council of Ministers, details recent economic reforms in the foreign trade sector of the USSR. Particular emphasis is placed on direct business relations between Soviet enterprises and their foreign counterparts, and on joint ventures with CMEA partners as well as firms in Western and developing countries. Anticipated changes in the role exports and imports are to play in the Soviet economy are also discussed. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 420.     

Trade and investment in Southeast Asian development

Expansion of foreign trade and investment has been a vital factor underlaying the high economic growth of the Southeast Asian economies over the last ten years. As East and Southeast Asian economies continue to deregulate and prosper, trade and investment flows are becoming increasingly interconnected within the region. The character of this regional economic integration, however, has shifted recently. The role of the Japanese has declined while that of China and the overseas Chinese has boomed. Whereas China has absorbed huge amounts of foreign investment, investment to the Southeast Asian economies appears to be weakening significantly. This weakening of investment is occurring just as many Southeast Asian countries struggle to uppgrade the technical levels of their production of goods and services to accommodate the rising wages and income levels that are fundamental to sustained and broad-based increases in standards of living throughout the region.     

哈萨克斯坦对外贸易的贸易引力模型实证研究

本文依据贸易引力模型对哈萨克斯坦与主要贸易伙伴的双边贸易流量进行了分析.研究显示,经济规模、距离、铁路运输是影响哈萨克斯坦对外贸易的主要影响因素.中国目前对哈萨克斯坦的贸易潜力已较小,需开发新的增长点来带动中哈贸易的进一步发展.     

从应对贸易摩擦到预防经济脱钩:2019年中国经济外交形势分析

2019年,中国经济外交在严峻的国际经济环境中负重前行,取得了一系列进展。首先,以建设性姿态与美国展开经贸谈判,最终在年底达成中美第一阶段贸易协议,避免了中美经贸关系的进一步恶化。其次,积极加大对欧洲、日本、俄罗斯以及东南亚等主要经济体的经济外交,推动国际经济合作,力促RCEP完成谈判。这些努力在一定程度上化解了中美贸易战带来的负面影响。第三,中国的"带路"外交进入机制化建设的新阶段,尤其是新建立的"一带一路"新闻与智库交流机制得到各方积极响应。展望2020年,中美经贸关系依然错综复杂,WTO改革压力重重,欧洲和日本等主要经济体对中国的疑虑可能会进一步发酵,中国经济外交依旧充满挑战。     

China’s Surging Energy Demand: Trigger for Conflict or Cooperation with Japan?

This article revisits a conventional interpretation of Sino-Japanese energy relations from geopolitical and zero-sum viewpoints. Contemporary Sino-Japanese disputes over the East China Sea and their scramble over a crude-oil pipeline from Russia have drawn global attention to the intensification of the rivalry between the two giant energy consumers. Beijing and Tokyo, however, have gradually found common interests resulting from business opportunities, environmental countermeasures, etc. Russia’s failure in driving a wedge between China and Japan, and the United States’ proactive engagement in Asia-Pacific energy issues, appear to provide new opportunities in which the East Asian powers’ energy rivalry can be reduced.

In the Shadow of Pacifism: Foreign Policy Choices of Germany and Japan in Afghanistan

This paper explores the policy choices of Germany and Japan for contributing to international security and stability in Afghanistan. Both countries have been closely involved with Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks 2001. It is argued that the policy choice of Japan with a low military element and high civilian element differs significantly from the German military centered approach. An analysis of the goals and motives behind the foreign policy choices reveals that in Germany the military involvement has been justified with humanitarian reasons, national self interests and the right to “unlimited” sovereignty. This logic has ultimately led to the acceptance of civilian casualties and participation into offensive counterinsurgency operations. It is suggested that elite driven discourses have determined foreign policy strategy. In the case of Japan the paper claims that the conservative LDP elite had been pushing for intensified military involvement which materialized in the dispatch of military vessels to the Indian Ocean and ground forces to Iraq. Similar to Germany these moves towards gaining international reputation were rooted in domestic politics.     

Beijing’s perception of the international system and foreign policy adjustment in the post-cold war world

This study, applying an international system-centered approach, represents a modest attempt to analyze Beijing’s official perception of the change in the international system from the Cold War bipolar confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union to a new post-cold war multipolar world, and to examine China’s foreign policy adjustment in recent years. It argues that Beijing’s perception of a multipolar system is a matter of normative truth rather than an empirical or analytical assessment. Because the multipolar system is its goal, Beijing “perceives” it. While working hard to encourage a multipolarity, Beijing in fact finds a unipolar reality in the post-Cold War era and has accommodated to it through its foreign policy adjustment. He will join the faculty of Colby College at Maine in the fall of 1993.     

韩国与日本企业在华投资趋势分析

本文从投资规模、目的、领域和区域分布等方面分析韩国企业与日本企业对华直接投资的变迁过程及其特点。近年来，韩El企业在对华投资目的上越来越倾向于开拓中国市场。对华投资的行业类别上，虽然投资产业集中在制造业的格局没有改变，但是在批发零售业、金融业等非制造业领域也呈现增长趋势。今后，在强化技术开发和零部件采购本地化的基础上，开发建立适应中国消费市场变化的产品与销售体制，积极拓展内陆地区以及二、三级城市市场将是韩日企业需要解决的重要课题。     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

South Africa's financial and economic prospects for the next five years

South African dominance of trade in Africa as well as its position as a regional hegemon was entrenched by the Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) with the European Union in 1999. South Africa's full-blown integration into the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) formation since 2011 has brought new dynamics, however, as South Africa now has a marked BRICS orientation. Although the European Union (EU) as a bloc is still South Africa's largest trading partner, China has become South Africa's largest single-country trading partner. The question arises as to whether this new found loyalty makes sense in terms of South Africa's regional position and its trade prospects. Against the background of more intra-industry trade with the EU and the new and growing inter-industry trade with the other BRICS economies, South Africa's trade share of African trade has been in relative decline. This study uses an international political economy framework to analyse South African trade hegemony based on the TDCA and the possible effects of a shift towards BRICS. The conclusion is that, although the shift towards BRICS can politically be justified, economically it should not be at the expense of the benefits of the more advantageous relationship with the EU.