Fifty Shades of Brexit: Britain’s EU Referendum and its Implications for Europe and Britain

Britain’s vote to leave the EU has raised more questions than answers, which is ironic given that David Cameron’s aim for the referendum was to settle the European question in British politics. The outcome, which reflected a range of causes, leaves significant uncertainties overhanging UK politics, UK-EU relations and wider European politics. It is likely that the confused outcome of the referendum and the technicalities of Brexit mean that for both the UK and the EU future relations will resemble fifty shades of grey rather than some black and white division of in or out.     

A blessing in disguise? Scottish independence and the end of the UK nuclear posture

This article examines the implications of Scottish independence for the UK's nuclear posture. It is argued here that a vote for independence will critically undermine this posture. Since the UK nuclear force operates entirely out of Scotland, and since the Scottish government continues to assert its intention to see nuclear weapons removed from an independent Scotland, it is overwhelmingly likely that a ‘Yes’ vote will prompt a demand for the drawdown of the UK nuclear force in Scotland. If it wished to maintain its nuclear capability, the UK government would then have to make alternative basing arrangements. It is argued here that a host of legal, financial and political difficulties may preclude any such relocation and that Downing Street may ultimately be left with little option but to surrender the UK's nuclear capability. This article concludes that far from weakening the UK, a surrendering of its nuclear posture would result in a stronger and more functional UK military footprint and would bolster the UK's standing in the international arena.     

The governance of justice and internal security in Scotland: between the Scottish independence referendum and British decisions on the EU

This article examines how the governance of justice and internal security in Scotland could be affected by the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum in September 2014. The article argues that it is currently impossible to equate a specific result in the referendum with a given outcome for the governance of justice and internal security in Scotland. This is because of the complexities of the current arrangements in that policy area and the existence of several changes that presently affect them and are outside the control of the government and of the people of Scotland. This article also identifies an important paradox. In the policy domain of justice and internal security, a ‘no’ vote could, in a specific set of circumstances, actually lead to more changes than a victory of the ‘yes’ camp.     

Continuity in the Face of Upheaval—British Strategic Culture and the Impact of the Blair Government

This chapter will consider how the elements of continuity and change in British foreign policy that emerged under the current Labor government will be managed in the short to medium term and ask what their fuller implications for the UK and European security may be in the longer run. The article will examine how the change that transpired after 1997 which saw a new pro-European stance on security can be reconciled with the prevailing continuities in British strategic culture, namely Britain’s special relationship with the US, its global role, and, as demonstrated in the case of Iraq, the UK’s negation of Franco-German security initiatives. The article will also emphasise the central importance of the UK’s commitment to the EU’s security policy ambitions, given that the UK armed forces are the most capable in Europe and as confirmed in Iraq, an ESDP without a UK contribution would have no credibility. Despite Blair’s policy overtures towards developing greater European military capabilities, the continued reliance on the US has meant that British strategic culture has displayed remarkable continuity rather than fundamental transformation.     

The China–EU relation and media representation of China: the case of British newspaper’s coverage of China in the post-Brexit referendum era

This paper presents a comparative approach that discusses whether British newspapers with different political agendas report China differently, in the post-Brexit referendum UK. As UK still remains as a member country of the EU 3 years after the vote, the relationship between China and the UK is still a source that impacts China–EU relations. Specifically, political agendas of British newspapers heavily impact their reports of domestic political issues and of the EU; this research questions whether such a difference can be observed in reports of China or not. The research selects four popular newspapers in the UK, The Sun, The Times, The Guardian and The Mirror, and analyses their coverage of China between 01/01/2017 and 31/12/2018. Among them, The Sun and The Times are right-wing/leaning newspapers and support the Conservative Party, while The Guardian and The Mirror are left-wing/leaning and the Labour Party supporters. This study applies content analysis and compares three perspectives in these four newspapers’ reports of China: the number of reports, the topics of reports and the associations (threats or cooperate) with China. By comparing the similarity and difference in those four newspapers’ coverages, this paper aims to understand what image of China those popular British newspapers were creating for their readers, what impressions of China were generated and whether and how the coverage reflects the changing Sino–UK relations in the post-Brexit era. If so, how the right-leaning and left-leaning newspapers frame China differently.

     

动荡中孕育变革、低迷里不乏希望——2011年国际局势总结与2012年展望

2011年,“阿拉伯之春”改变了中东、北非地缘政治生态;美国加速全球战略调整,高调“重返亚太”;全球政治思潮空前激荡,世界仍面临形形色色的恐怖威胁;西方主要经济体表现低迷,新兴经济体强劲增长势头放缓。2012年,多个主要国家大选,世界政治版图会以何种方式重建值得关注;欧债危机继续,但在欧盟干预下有可能得到缓解;中东局势将是全球政治最大聚焦场所,未来大国关系因中东局势如何调整是事关全球地缘战略格局的新挑战。     

American Views of Europe

America’s diplomacy towards Europe has passed through two broad historic phases. A first, isolationist phase, determined in part by America’s need to maintain its domestic multinational consensus, was replaced, after World War II and under the Soviet threat, by a policy of hegemonic engagement. The Soviet collapse opened a new era forcing a reinterpretation of America’s role in Europe and the world. Four different narratives have emerged: triumphalist, declinist, chaotic or pluralist. If a unipolar American role seems unlikely to persist, American decline is all too possible. A new hegemonic replacement seems unlikely, which makes the pluralist narrative plausible and desirable. This multipolar world will require an adaptation of the Western alliance and a new way of thinking about interstate relations. Confederal Europe, for its experience in bargaining and conciliation, might have much to offer to the new plural world order.     

太空武器化及中国太空安全构建

太空技术的出现来自冷战时代的美苏军备竞赛。在世界第一颗卫星上天后,太空随之被赋予了军事化意味,太空武器化接踵而至。冷战后,为了确保太空霸权,同时维护一超独霸的地位,美国不惜重拾冷战时代的太空武器化政策,由此,引起其他国家的相应回应。太空武器化程度逐渐抬升,给国际战略稳定与平衡造成严重威胁与挑战,引起反导系统和太空军备竞赛,增加核战风险,阻碍世界核裁军进程,也给太空商业开发、"太空2030议程"等带来诸多挑战。太空武器化给中国太空安全造成巨大的挑战与威胁,使中国太空资产的安全陷于危险境地,中国利用太空资产的自由有可能被限制或被剥夺,战略目标(包括战略核力量)受到太空系统的侦察与打击的威胁。为应对太空武器化的威胁与挑战,从安全上加强太空威慑力量建设,构建中国的太空安全体系显得紧迫与必要。     

Fleetingness and media-ted existence. From Kierkegaard on the newspaper to Broderick on the Internet

Abstract

Increasingly, the modern world is ‘on speed’. Technology has, since the invention of the Gutenberg press, facilitated the ever more rapid, more widespread dispersal of information. The latest in the line of the mass information media, which runs from the book and newspaper through radio and television, is the Internet, a medium for which speed is measured in milliseconds, and for which the phrase ‘virtual reality’, or, more compact, ‘virtuality’, has thus been coined. Speed, however, relates not only to the dissemination of information, but also to its endurance: the quicker the medium, the more fleeting the presence of, and the more transitory one's encounter with a message. This brevity of encounter seems to some extent to run, phenomenologically, along with the range of the particular mass medium: the wider its reach, the quicker too the departure of its contents. In this sense, bigger is faster – though not necessarily with greater meaning, truth or integrity. Invasiveness and validity are not necessary corollaries. The power of the mass media lies in scope, rather than in depth. The existential impact this has on humans living in a world increasingly dominated by such mass media, has not passed by unnoticed. Some of the analyses are highlighted in this contribution, with some continued implications for living authentically in a media-ted world indicated.     

Power-sharing after the Arab Spring? Insights from Lebanon’s Political Transition

Abstract

The article looks at the legacy of consociationalism in Lebanon with the aim of illuminating some insights on the linkages between power-sharing and conflict resolution in the post-2011 Middle East. It highlights three core dilemmas or governance traps that have recurred in Lebanon’s political dynamic: the power-sharing formula’s proneness to deadlock, its dependence on the external environment as an avenue for partisanship and sectarian leverage, and its weak responsiveness to demands from below. The article shows how these dilemmas are tightly linked to the politics of sectarianism. While Lebanon’s postwar transition (1990 onward) serves as a backdrop for exploring these dilemmas, emphasis is placed on the performance of Lebanon’s political system in the post–Arab Spring era. The aim is to assess whether Lebanon’s consociational performance has matured over time. The Lebanese experience brings into sharper focus the limitations of sectarian power-sharing. Still, it provides useful insights for reshaping the debate on power-sharing in divided societies of the Arab world.     

中东变局与世界主要大国中东战略的调整——兼论中国的中东外交

中东地区历来是大国战略博弈的重点区域。自阿拉伯国家陷入群体性动荡以来,美国、欧洲、俄罗斯等大国或地区力量围绕中东变局纷纷进行政策与战略调整。美国中东战略调整的根本目标是既要避免类似伊拉克战争的深度卷入,又要保持对中东事务的主导权。欧盟尤其是法、英两国对中东变局的积极干预使欧洲对中东事务的影响明显增强,欧盟正力图确立统一的中东战略,但其内部分歧不容忽视。俄罗斯中东战略的核心特征是原则性与灵活性相结合的实用主义外交,并极力维护其地缘战略利益和能源利益。中国应进一步增强对中东战略地位的认识,冷静客观地认识中东变局对中国国际环境变化的影响,并在坚持原则的同时适度扩大对中东事务的参与。     

1958-1965年中国对印尼的援助

1958 -1965年中国对印度尼西亚的援助情况同两国友好关系的发展进程并不完全同步.特别是在1960 - 1963年两国关系稳步恢复和发展的阶段,中国在援助印尼的态度上呈现出较为谨慎保守的特点.至1964 -1965年,中国的态度才转为积极主动,加大援助印尼的力度并加快援助进度.这一变化除了受冷战国际格局以及两国国内政治经济等情况的影响外,更重要的原因在于中国自身的革命外交理念.正是基于对世界革命的战略解读与坚定信仰,中国在援助印尼的外交决策中才将“革命”作为首要的评判标准,从而出现这种不同步的情况.     

突尼斯妇女法律地位浅析

突尼斯在保障妇女权益方面有丰富的经验。在维护妇女法律地位方面,突尼斯是非洲和阿拉伯国家中取得最大成就的国家之一。主要原因有三:第一是历史原因,突尼斯改革运动为社会解放和知识分子的意识形态变化奠定了良好基础。"凯鲁万婚约"的适用亦有利于国家独立以后执行一夫一妻制;第二是政治原因,妇女解放是突政府最重要的现代化与发展政策之一;第三是社会原因,20世纪80年代以来突尼斯妇女组织对妇女社会地位提高的推动作用。当前突尼斯面临的经济与社会问题可能对妇女现有地位构成一定的挑战。     

François Mitterrand’s Visit to Sarajevo, 28 June 1992

At 10:30 in the morning on 28 June 1992, a Dauphin helicopter landed at Sarajevo airport carrying a precious cargo: the French president, François Mitterrand. Since the beginning of the Bosnian War, Bosnian Serb forces had controlled the airport and restricted the delivery of humanitarian aid to the city’s destitute population, which formed an important cornerstone of their siege strategy. In reaching the airport, the president secured its re-opening and, with it, the commencement of one of the longest humanitarian airlifts in history. However, Mitterrand’s visit also had implications and significance beyond the Bosnian capital. The visit secured humanitarian intervention through the United Nations as the international community’s modus operandi for conflict resolution in Bosnia-Hercegovina. Through its permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council and enthusiastic engagement with humanitarian intervention, France would shape the intervention in Bosnia-Hercegovina and thus continue to justify its position amongst the world’s Great Powers.     

New media and strategic narratives: the Dutch referendum on Ukraine – EU Association Agreement in Ukrainian and Russian Internet blogs

ABSTRACT

This article analyses two confronting narratives authored by Ukrainian and Russian bloggers who reported the Dutch referendum held on 6 March 2016, and discussed Dutch citizens’ referendum vote on the Ukraine–EU Association Agreement. The considered narratives, addressed to the Ukrainian and Russian audiences respectively, are viewed as strategic because they specifically portray political actors of the referendum “drama” – the Netherlands, the European Union (EU), Ukraine and Russia. These actors are significant participants of European international relations, and their perceptions of one another are important for European security at the present time of critical diplomacy. In this paper, information about the DUTCH REFERENDUM obtained from the new media texts is regarded as a narrative-based political concept (NBPC). It is argued that this concept has different versions, or images that reflect the narrators’ biased perceptions imposed upon the public. Identification and comparison of such images require a particular methodology. Therefore, the objective of this paper is two-fold: to expose the two confronting versions of a strategically relevant political image, and to develop an authentic, interdisciplinary methodology for its analysis. The proposed methodology is informed by the ontology theory employed in cognitive science and cognitive linguistics.     

The terror experts and the mainstream media: the expert nexus and its dominance in the news media

Academic writing on ‘terrorism’ and the availability to the mainstream media and policy-makers of terror ‘experts’ have increased exponentially since 11 September 2001. This paper examines the rise of terror expertise and its use in one particular public arena – the mainstream news media. Using a combination of citation analysis and media analysis, the paper presents a ranking of the most influential terror experts in the mainstream news media in the Anglophone world. It is shown how what has been called an ‘invisible college’ of experts operates as a nexus of interests connecting academia with military, intelligence and government agencies, with the security industry and the media. The paper then takes a small number of case studies of some of the most prominent experts who exemplify the dominant trend in the field and examines the networks in which they are embedded. The last part of the paper uses the data generated to re-examine theories of ‘terrorism’ and the media, of ‘propaganda’ and ‘terrorism’, and of ‘source–media’ relations. It is suggested that the study of terror experts shows the need to study and theorise the media in a wider context by focusing on the relations between media content and production processes and wider formations of power. In so doing, the paper attempts to connect studies of media and terrorism to wider studies of terror and political violence.     

2019中国外交:乘风破浪 坚定前行

2019年,对中国来说,是举国同庆、继往开来的一年。我们隆重庆祝了中华人民共和国成立70周年。回顾70年波澜壮阔的发展历程,我们更加认识到新中国发展成就来之不易,更加坚定了走中国特色社会主义道路的决心,更加提升了实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标、实现中华民族伟大复兴的信心。我们胜利召开党的十九届四中全会。这次会议全面总结了中国特色社会主义制度和国家治理体系的核心内涵、建设成就和显著优势,首次明确提出坚持和完善中国特色社会主义制度、推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的总体目标,为推动中华民族伟大复兴提供了更加坚实的制度保障。一个稳定、安全、繁荣的中国昂首屹立在世界东方,不断为人类的和平与发展事业作出新的贡献。     

新南非的包容性发展之路——非国大100周年纪念

南非曾经是种族矛盾和冲突最为严重的国家,300多年欧洲殖民者的征服和统治,造成了南非种族间政治、经济、社会的割裂与对抗。1994年南非废除种族隔离,建立了种族平等的民主制度。新南非政治社会变革和转型的进程,避免了很多人担忧的种族仇杀和动乱,关键在于坚持了包容性理念和政策,构建了以宪法为核心的一整套法律体系,以保障国家统一和公民基本权利为基本宗旨,在多元一体国家的建设中,取得了举世公认的社会进步。研究南非在新制度下的包容性发展之路,具有重要的现实意义和理论意义。     

The US–UK 'Special Relationship' in a world twice transformed

The international politics of recent years have seen a resurgence and refashioning of the US–UK ‘Special Relationship’. Widely seen as likely to expire with the end of the Cold War, the relationship, defined mainly in military terms, revived following the 9/11 terror attacks on the United States. The article considers various possible explanations for the longevity of US–UK ‘special relations’. Such explanations include simple inertia and the subtle effects of shared culture. Particular emphasis in explaining the persistence of the ‘Special Relationship’ in a changed world, however, is placed on conscious decisions of the Blair government, and especially of Prime Minister Tony Blair himself. The article concludes with an assessment of US–UK relations with respect to the conflict in Iraq.     

Europe’s engagement with China: shifting Chinese views of the EU and the EU-China relationship

This article discusses the dramatic recent shifts in Chinese policy perspectives on the European Union (EU) and on EU-China relations. Whereas for more than a decade, policy makers and Europe specialists in China had regarded the EU as an exemplar of regional integration and as a promising new ‘pole’ in the global order, a recent survey shows that today, in the wake of the Eurozone crisis, the refugee crisis, and the ‘Brexit’ referendum, many perceive the EU as a troubled actor unfit to deal with the existential challenges confronting it, let alone play a credible leadership role beyond its own borders. Despite this, Beijing’s ambitious international agenda at a time of increasing global uncertainty guarantees China’s ever-growing stake in building a reliable, long-term partnership with the EU, even though recent Chinese diplomatic and economic initiatives are gravitating toward the Union’s periphery, targeting subregional groupings of Member States along Europe’s re-emerging, traditional fault lines. Based on the research findings presented in this paper, the authors argue that the EU and the Member States need to rethink the basic assumptions underlying their China policies in the so-called ‘New Era’ and explore new approaches of engagement that match these shifting perceptions, policies and political realities.