The changing political culture of the African National Congress

The early elite of the African National Congress (ANC) embraced values of moral improvement, individual responsibility and a sense of social consciousness. The ANC now governs South Africa, but with what appears to be a different set of principles. The current scourge of corruption, increasing state control, coupled with a general lack of service delivery point to behaviour of the ruling party which is inward-looking, self-seeking and self-preserving. Arguing that political culture and its accompanying values and attitudes is a prime motivator of behaviour, the paper seeks to understand the changing political culture of the dominant party. To understand the political culture of the ANC we use interviews with ANC parliamentarians and ANC supporters conducted in 2006–2007 and 2013 as well as an analysis of the ANC's Strategy and Tactics policy documents. We contend that the liberal values of the early elites were never fully embedded, but in their stead is a liberationist culture, where the state is normatively understood to be extensive and embodying the will of the people. We argue, that through the resulting centralized determination of the interests of the people, patronage networks, and diminishing of accountability, a system conducive to corruption and the pursuit of personal interest is created.     

Are Poor Voters Indifferent to Whether Elected Leaders Are Criminal or Corrupt? A Vignette Experiment in Rural India

Although in theory elections are supposed to prevent criminal or venal candidates from winning or retaining office, in practice voters frequently elect and reelect such candidates. This surprising pattern is sometimes explained by reference to voters’ underlying preferences, which are thought to favor criminal or corrupt candidates because of the patronage they provide. This article tests this hypothesis using 2010 data from the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, where one in four representatives in the state legislature have a serious criminal record and where political corruption is widespread. Contrary to the voter preference hypothesis, voters presented with vignettes that randomly vary the attributes of competing legislative candidates for local, state, and national office become much less likely to express a preference for candidates who are alleged to be criminal or corrupt. Moreover, voters’ education status, ethnicity, and political knowledge are unrelated to their distaste for criminal and venal candidates. The results imply that the electoral performance of candidates who face serious allegations likely reflects factors other than voters’ preferences for patronage, such as limited information about candidate characteristics or the absence of credible alternative candidates with clean records.     

The death of security sector reform? The South African exemplar revisited

ABSTRACT

Security sector reform (SSR) or transformation in South Africa has until recently almost universally been regarded as a success. While achievements have been real and many are enduring, under the presidency of Jacob Zuma a creeping effort by corrupt parvenu elites to capture the state for personal enrichment has become evident. The impact of this on the SSR project has not been sufficiently analysed. This article does not deal with state capture per se, which would be massive task and for which evidence is still emerging. It limits itself to the impact of state capture on the SSR project, examining the hollowing out of the defence function, as well as the corruption and factional politicisation of the intelligence, policing and prosecutions functions (it does not deal with the capture of state-owned enterprises, which would require a study in its own right). It concludes that SSR has been significantly undermined. The question is asked whether a resurrection is possible or desirable.     

Afghanistan's India–Pakistan dilemma: advocacy coalitions in weak states

This article seeks to examine the foreign policy behaviour of weak states in regions marked by politically turbulent geostrategic environments. An analysis of Afghanistan's foreign policy behaviour vis-à-vis Pakistan and India lends focus to this aim. India–Pakistan rivalry has gained traction as a key factor in determining Afghanistan's stability in the wake of the drawdown of Coalition forces. Missing from this debate, however, is consideration of Afghanistan's agency as a weak state with an independent set of policy preferences. Based on primary interviews with a diverse set of Afghan political actors the article outlines two competing policy advocacies: Pakistan friendly and Pakistan averse. The article argues that these advocacies are key to understanding Afghanistan's India–Pakistan dilemma. Departing from the ethnic lens used to explain Afghan politics and its regional linkages, this article shows that Kabul's relations with Islamabad determine its approach towards New Delhi regardless of ethnic rivalries. Understanding domestic Afghan narratives in this regional context is therefore imperative to adequately assess South Asia's prospective security calculus.     

Book reviews

This article addresses the concern that democratization may contribute to the reproduction of neo-patrimonialism, rather than to counteract it. The article reports the result of a survey among members of parliament in Ghana regarding their election campaigns. Total spending, sources of funds, and their usage are analysed in the context of the consolidation of liberal democracy. The survey results are supplemented with data collected in 34 interviews with MPs. The data show that MPs are involved in patron-client relationships to a significant degree to reproduce their political power. Furthermore, the prevalence of patronage politics among MPs in Ghana has increased throughout the period of democratic rule. This persistent pattern of patronage politics threatens the very heart of democratic consolidation. Vertical accountability and legitimacy is threatened by alternative pacts of loyalty, expectations of corruption, and tendencies to delegative mandates. Horizontal accountability risks pervasion by 'big man' interventions, and by insufficient allocation of time to monitoring the government and legislative activities.     

Exploring the link between patronage and party institutionalization: an historical-institutional analysis of the Italian transition

This article analyses party patronage transformations in Italy since the early 1990s, a time when political parties and the party system entered a phase of continuing change. It examines how the interaction between the temporality of party system restructuring and historical legacies rooted in the nature of public bureaucracies reproduced patronage practices aimed at capturing state resources. The article employs a historical institutionalist approach as a research framework and concludes that this provides a cogent explanatory argument for the development of state exploitation taken by Italian political parties since the crisis of the early 1990s.     

Indonesia's ‘democratic transition’ revisited: a clientelist model of political transition

This article presents an alternative theoretical framework to account for the political transition in Indonesia in 1998. Challenging the mainstream literature, which focuses on the presumed significance of civil society, the article claims that so-called democratization in Indonesia offered a mechanism through which to reorganize the distribution of patronage within the state. The transition was caused not by assertive civil society but Suharto's excessive centralization of patronage networks, which had the effect of alienating a significant proportion of the regime elite. Against this backdrop, democratization facilitated a decentralization of previously centralized patronage networks and a redistribution of spoils within the state towards elites that had been excluded from Suharto's inner circle.     

Grassroots Civil Groups: The Potential and Limits of Democratic Change in Argentina's Interior Provinces

While the current crisis in Argentina has many facets--economic, political and social--it originated and has been fuelled by the unfulfilled promise of a democracy in which political leaders are accountable to society. In the 1990s it was widely hoped that the growing number of grassroots civil groups would contribute to democratisation, particularly in the interior provinces where clientelism and patronage have long been thought to hamper local development and the country's progress as a whole. Those hopes faded as social unrest broke out in Argentina's interior provinces in the mid-1990s and the country began its slide towards collapse by the end of the decade. Yet the problem of political change in the interior provinces remains a central issue in Argentina's current crisis, and its future prospects. The ability of civil groups to contribute to democratic change in the interior provinces is constrained in different ways, depending on whether clientelism or patronage prevail in social relationships. Clientelistic and patronage-based societies differently condition the types of grassroots groups that arise, the scope of their activities and their potential for contributing to democratic change. Exploring these differences offers important insights into Argentina's current crisis and the potential and limitations of change in the interior.     

Researching counterterrorism: a critical perspective from the field in the light of allegations and findings of covert activities by undercover police officers

The article addresses some of the key issues that are raised for researchers engaging with counterterrorism police officers and initiatives, when undertaking research. A significant area to explore in this context is, in fact, the issue of relationships with counterterrorism police officers who may themselves directly have been covert police officers in the past and/or who may be continuing in their current, apparently more open, role (wittingly or otherwise) as agents of broader state strategies of exploiting trust for intelligence-gathering purposes. This article suggests that it is important for researchers to understand that working within the counterterrorism field involves degrees and shades of risk in the service of trust-building, sensitivity and the empowerment of communities, and that researchers themselves can (wittingly and unwittingly) be part of wider strategies instigated by security-minded individuals or groups of counterterrorism police officers. Reflecting upon the research that we have undertaken individually and collectively over the last number of years, in the light of the most recent spate of allegations about counterterrorism police officers infiltrating activist and political protest groups, having sexual relationships, and indeed, on occasion, children, with women whilst undercover and of potentially working to entrap vulnerable individuals into planning terrorist acts, this article raises questions around trust, credibility, legitimacy, the prevalence and near unavoidability of dysfunctional agendas and the implications of all of the above for community-based approaches to counterterrorism.     

Oil,Natural Gas,and Intrastate Conflict: Does Ownership Matter?

The impact of natural resources on intrastate violence has been increasingly analyzed in the peace and conflict literature. Surprisingly, little quantitative evidence has been gathered on the effects of the resource-ownership structure on internal violence. This article uses a novel data set on oil and natural gas property rights, covering 40 countries during the period 1989–2010. The results of regression analyses employing logit models reveal that the curvilinear effect between hydrocarbon production and civil conflict onset—often found in previous studies—only applies to countries in which oil and gas is extracted by state-owned companies. The findings suggest that only state-controlled hydrocarbon production might entail peace-buying mechanisms such as specific clientelistic practices, patronage networks, welfare policies, and/or coercion. At the same time, it seems that greed and grievance are more pronounced whenever resources lie in the hands of the state. Exploring the within-country variation, further analyses reveal that divergent welfare spending patterns are likely to be one causal channel driving the relationship between resource ownership and internal violence.     

Afghan refugees in Indo-Afghan relations

When Afghans started fleeing abroad in the aftermath of the Saur Revolution of April 1978, Pakistan and Iran were the main countries of destination, but some Afghans also fled to India. This article offers new insights into one under-studied aspect of Indo-Afghan relations: population movements. What place have Afghan refugees occupied in Indo-Afghan relations (both formal and informal) from the Saur Revolution to the present? This article examines the specific situation of Afghan refugees in India, the general context of Indo-Afghan relations and India's ad hoc policy towards Afghan refugees, which all help explain the place occupied by Afghan refugees in Indo-Afghan relations.     

Human rights and the fight against terrorism in Northern Ireland

After a discussion of the United Kingdom's responsibilities under the European Convention of Human Rights and the political background to the re‐emergence in 1968–69 of terrorism and the stationing of British troops in the Province, the article analyses those human rights issues which derive from the way the fight against terrorism has been conducted over the past 20 years. The issues discussed are, deaths resulting from the actions of the security forces, complaints of ill‐treatment by the police during interrogation, the detentioning of terrorist suspects, the use of exclusion orders to deport from the United Kingdom to Northern Ireland persons formerly resident in that Province, the use of juryless courts (Diplock Courts) for terrorist and other offences, and the banning of political organizations.     

Returnees for change? Afghan return migrants' identification with the conflict and their potential to be agents of change

This article interrogates the assumptions that returned migrants can be agents of change in development and peace-building in the country of origin. In current political and academic debates, it remains under-defined which category of returnees can contribute to what kind of change. This article identifies four ways in which voluntary and involuntary returnees relate to the conflict after return: physically, institutionally, psychologically and with regard to the future. It finds that the only returnees who could potentially live up to the expectations raised in the migration-development-peace-building debate, are voluntary returnees, while involuntary returnees were in no way potential contributors to Afghan peace-building and development. It concludes that, first, the human dimension of returnees' involvement is the most important potential contribution to change. Second, while the international community sees repatriation as the ultimate proof of peace that represents the restoring of normalcy, it is rather continued transnational mobility that could be the basis for Afghan migrants to contribute to change in Afghanistan.     

The Politics of Mafia Violence: Explaining Variation in Mafia Killings in Southern Italy (1983–2008)

Violence perpetrated by organized crime nowadays represents a major threat to state stability, both because it directly challenges political institutions, targeting officials and using terrorist techniques, and because severe inter-group conflict strongly affects human security. Though it is a distinctive feature of illegal markets and a constant strategy of Mafia-like groups, the occurrence of violence is localized in time and space. The article aims to explain temporal and spatial variation in Mafia killings focusing on its political determinants, as organized crime is deeply embedded in the political system. The analysis shows that there is a clear link between the structure of the political markets and the severity of violence. In particular, the fragmentation of the political market is negatively associated with the strategy of criminal groups to exploit violence. By contrast, single-party dominance and bipartisanship lead to an increase in homicides since these organizations have few opportunities to access the political arena. Outcomes are assessed through the analysis of monthly homicides reported by police forces in Italian provinces from 1983 to 2008.     

The internal–external security nexus and EU police/rule of law missions in the Western Balkans

Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) police/rule of law missions in the Western Balkans are increasingly guided by externally imposed normative agendas that respond primarily to EU internal security needs rather than functional imperatives or local realities. In line with these needs, EU police reform efforts tend to prioritise effectiveness and crime fighting over longer- term democratic policing and good governance reforms. In practice this means that police reform initiatives are technocratically oriented, yet value ridden fitting EU security concerns and needs. As a result, the police reform process can be—and often is—disconnected from the political and socio-economic reforms necessary for long-term stability and sustainable peace. Police assistance in Bosnia and Herzegovina has been shaped by a determined albeit questionable focus on organised crime and corruption. The focus of EU police reform in Macedonia on primarily crime-fighting aspects of policing has compromised thefunctioning of the Macedonian police. Similarly, the politics of (non-)recognition of Kosovo's self-proclaimed independence and the intrusiveness of EULEX Kosovo's executive mandate contravene meeting local challenges.     

Comments (2) on ‘cultural differences in the behavior of terrorists’

This article reviews the development of security policy in Northern Ireland since the outbreak of the current ‘troubles’ in 1969. Following an examination of the three principal categories of actor directly involved on the state side ‐ politicians, civil servants and security agency personnel ‐ the problems accompanying the fust phase of security policy, from 1969 to the mid‐1970s, are discussed. Particular attention is paid to intelligence aspects of the situation. The second part of the paper is devoted to security policy as it has developed since the government's policy review of 1975–76. The re‐emergence of the Royal Ulster Constabulary as the primary security agency is described, together with what is called the ‘Hermonization’ of the force in the 1980s. The development of the police under Sir John Hermon (Chief Constable 1980–89) has reflected three main trends in security policy: Ulsterization, professionalization, and the de‐politicization of the force. The article ends with a consideration of the problems of the co‐ordination and accountability of the security forces, and notes that any purely security strategy in the province is doomed to failure.     

Accounting for Corruption: Economic Structure, Democracy, and Trade

Though corruption poses fundamental challenges to both democratic governance and market economies, political science research has only recently begun to address corruption in a comparative context. In this article we explain variation in the perceived level of corruption (defined as the misuse of public office for private gain) across fifty countries. We propose a set of hypotheses that explain variation in corruption levels in terms of domestic political-economic structure, democratic norms, integration into the international economy, and Protestant religious affiliation. Levels of corruption, we propose, are higher: (1) the lower the average income level, (2) the greater the extent of state control of the economy, (3) the weaker are democratic norms and institutions, (4) the lower the degree of integration in the world economy, and (5) the lower the share of the population with Protestant religious affiliation. The data analysis broadly confirms our predictions: in the multivariate regression, each of the independent variables is significant in the direction we expect.     

‘Dancing with the prince’: Ngo's survival strategics in the Afghan conflict

Afghan NGOs have been a major provider of humanitarian aid throughout the Afghan conflict. They remained operational during this period by 'dancing' with and between the various parties to the conflict, their survival contingent on their ability to build ad hoc patterns of alliance and cooperation. This article explores the nature of 'the dance' between NGOs, the warring parties, and the NGOs' constituencies. It asks whether 'dancing with the prince' represents an accommodation with violence or is a necessary compromise which will ultimately contribute to resolving the conflict. It concludes by drawing out key lessons for donors who support indigenous NGOs operating in complex political emergencies.     

The political economy of stalemate: organised crime,corruption and economic deformation in post-Dayton Bosnia

‘The biggest security threat to this country is not nationalism; it’s criminality, corruption and unemployment'2 More than seven years after the end of the Bosnian war and despite some $5 billion in international reconstruction assistance, Bosnia's economy remains stagnant and dysfunctional, while the country is rapidly gaining a reputation not as an emerging market economy but as a lawless and ungovernable state dominated by organised crime and corruption. This paper assesses Bosnia's post-Dayton political economy, arguing that the nexus between organised crime and corruption, on the one hand, and nationalist political forces, on the other, represents the most significant obstacle to the development of a market economy in Bosnia and poses a growing threat to the country's peace process. This situation is the product of Bosnia's particular post-war and post-socialist environment, which has created a powerful class of elites with an interest in perpetuating the status quo of a largely unreformed economy. In this context, international efforts to impose economic reforms from above, and to encourage local authorities to embrace a reformist marketisation and rule of law agenda, have met with little success. The paper concludes by suggesting that international peace building efforts need to pay greater attention to the ‘enforcement gap’ that has en abled crime and corruption to flourish in Bosnia.     

Wheeled Warriors: Explaining Variations in the Use of Violence by Private Security Companies in Iraq

This article engages one of the most widely discussed but poorly understood aspects of the Iraq War: the use of violence by private security companies. It explains why, despite sharing several important characteristics—coming from the same general population of military and police veterans, working for the same client during the same time period, performing the same tasks under the same client-imposed rules of engagement, and facing the same kinds of threats in the same general operating environment—the personnel who worked for Blackwater, the chief protector of US State Department employees in Iraq, killed and seriously injured far more people than their counterparts in DynCorp. The article argues that Blackwater's personnel killed and seriously injured far more people in Iraq than their DynCorp counterparts because Blackwater maintained a relatively bellicose military culture that placed strong emphasis on norms encouraging its security teams to exercise personal initiative, proactive use of force, and an exclusive approach to security, which together motivated its personnel to use violence quite freely against anyone suspected of posing a threat. If the trends established during the Iraq and Afghan Wars continue, then private security companies will see extensive employment in future conflicts. These findings, consequently, have implications that extend beyond the Iraq War and the particular firms under study. Indeed, they indicate that governments and other future clients should analyze the military cultures of the firms vying for their business and use the results as a basis for deciding which firms to hire and, to a great extent, represent them in unstable conflict zones.