Global Television News and Foreign Policy: Debating the CNN Effect

This study investigates the origins and development of the cable news network (CNN) effect hypothesis. It reveals an ongoing debate among politicians, officials, and journalists who are involved in the political processes that this hypothesis attempts to explain, and also among scholars who have been studying it. Debates have been conducted both within and among these groups on the meaning and validity of the CNN effect, but none has contributed significantly to resolving the issue. On the contrary, these debates have presented contradicting statements that have only created confusion and misunderstanding. This study presents lessons from the decade-long effort to explore the CNN effect and projects a new agenda for more useful approaches towards different effects of global communication, apart from those covered by the present controversial hypothesis.     

Global Debate and the Limits of the Bush Doctrine

The "Bush Doctrine" asserting the right to preemptively attack states that support or harbor terrorists and pursue weapons of mass destruction (WMD) has bitterly divided world opinion. Many seemingly long-settled questions of international politics, especially involving the unilateral use of force, have been reopened. Although we are concerned about the implications of the Bush Doctrine, we do not agree that it fundamentally changes world politics as some have asserted. Instead, we argue that the global debate leading up to the war in Iraq signals widespread support for existing international norms. Most states continue to see force as a last resort, properly subject to multilateral control in all but the most urgent cases of imminent self-defense. The nature of American diplomatic maneuverings in the United Nations and the public statements of high-level officials suggest that even the United States continues to recognize the importance of these norms.     

Holding power in sequential games 1

Holding power is simply the ability of a player to stay at one position longer than his opponent, thereby forcing the opponent to make the next move in a sequential game. In this paper, we illustrate the real world relevance of this concept by examining the Berlin crisis of 1948 and showing that only a holding power interpretation provides a satisfying explanation of the eventual resolution. We define holding power formally and find that, when one player has holding power, the outcome of the conflict is determined. We develop a simple procedure for identifying the holding power outcome in every strict ordinal 2×2 game, and draw several interesting conclusions about the nature of this power. We find that a horizon of six moves or less always ensures that the eventual holding power outcome is reached. We also find that holding power outcomes are always Pareto‐superior, except in a Prisoners’ Dilemma game when the initial position of the player without holding power is associated with the noncooperative Nash equilibrium. Finally, we determine that the holding power outcome depends on which player has this power in just 15 of the 78 distinct 2×2 ordinal games. In 9 of these games, holding power is effective in the sense that a player does better when he has holding power. In the remaining 6 cases, though, the possession of holding power is actually a disadvantage—a player prefers that his opponent have holding power rather than himself. We provide an explanation for this occasional phenomenon.     

The Confluence of Domestic and International Interests: U.S. Policy Toward Cuba, 1998–2001

This article examines the confluence of forces at work to shape U.S. policy toward Cuba since the late 1990s. Our approach examines four key factors involved in policymaking toward Cuba in this period: (1) the entry of new interest groups into the Cuba policy process and an "entrepreneurial" Congress; (2) the executive's constitutionally based interests; (3) bureaucratic interests; and (4) pressure from outside the United States. We examine U.S.–Cuba policy by describing each determinant in isolation and then by looking at the dynamic interaction among them, showing how they are linked together. In doing so, we argue that an analysis including multiple factors better explains U.S. policy toward Cuba than one that focuses on a single factor such as the power of the Cuban-American community.     

Virtue Unrestrained: Herbert Butterfield and the Problem of American Power

In the late 1950s, the British historian Sir Herbert Butterfield observed that we should not welcome the prospect of even a virtuous hegemon but should seek, rather, a balance of power. He did so because his understanding of history suggested that aspirant hegemons succeed principally in precipitating costly wars against them, while his sense of Christian ethics suggested that even a successful virtuous hegemon would become self-righteous and, by imposing its values on others, would curtail the scope of human freedom. I argue that current United States (U.S.) policy and the world's response to it to date confirm Butterfield's position, but that this presents a new set of practical and moral questions centered on the problem of advocating a balance against a country that one regards as broadly virtuous, and certainly more virtuous than many of the other powers in the world, but that no longer wants to pursue its interests through the post-Cold War concert of putative great powers. The best answer to these problems, I conclude, lies not in a crude balance, but the re-institutionalization of the idea of the balance of power. This requires advocating restraint and self-restraint, the first practical manifestation of which being that the U.S. should not attack either of the surviving members of the "Axis of Evil."     

Purpose and behaviour: The Cuban missile conflict revisited

Fairly strong theoretical arguments posit that the use of force to achieve foreign policy objectives and the milita’ rization of society are part of a self‐amplifying feedback process. In spite of the rather coherent reasoning linking these two factors, little empirical work has attempted to demonstrate the strength of this postulated relationship. This analysis uses a system of equations to model this hypothesized feedback in the US and British societies during the 20th century. The findings presented below lend tentative support for the hypothesized feedback, though suggests that further verification might be facilitated through refinements in the operational indicators of violent foreign policy. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that systemic level variables contribute significantly to the propensity of the US and Great Britain to employ violence as a tool of foreign policy.     

特朗普执政以来美国对拉美政策的调整及其影响

在美国的全球战略中,拉美地区历来占据着重要而特殊的位置。长期以来,美国视拉美为自己的“后院”,在拉美拥有独一无二的主导权和影响力。特朗普政府执政后,公开祭出“门罗主义”的旗帜,大幅度调整对拉美的政策,展现出更公开的干涉行径、更浓厚的利己色彩、更明显的分化企图和更强烈的排外取向,意在将拉美打造成一个政治上亲近美国、经贸上依赖美国、安全上不威胁美国的“后院”。短期看,特朗普政府对拉美的政策调整取得了一定的成效,对拉美的掌控有所强化。但长期看,美国和拉美地区之间的深层次矛盾和冲突并未完全纾解,在特定的时空背景下甚至存在进一步被激化的可能性;与此同时,特朗普政府对拉政策的调整还加剧了大国在拉美展开战略博弈的风险。特朗普政府的拉美政策如何进一步演变和发展,美拉关系如何变化,这些课题值得中国学界高度关注并深入研究。     

Terrorism Analysis and Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project: The Missing Element

ABSTRACT

The decision in the case of Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project raised important issues about civil liberties in the United States (2010), including freedom of speech and freedom of association, in relation to U.S. foreign policy actions. While the decision has the potential to infringe on certain liberties, the decision itself was based on very limited information on the nature of terrorism, the foreign terrorist organizations involved, and the processes by which terrorist groups can be induced to peacefully re-enter domestic political systems. There are also concerns about what can be the arbitrary designation of groups as foreign terrorist organizations. These issues raise serious questions about the role of the Supreme Court in the overall political system and judgments in cases involving terrorism and foreign policy.     

Mortgaging Security for Economic Gain: U.S. Arms Policy in an Insecure World

Similar to other consumer sectors of the global economy, the transfer of advanced conventional weapons and military technologies has entered the globalization process, a process that has qualitatively and quantitatively altered the composition and structure of U.S. national security policymaking. By injecting the decisionmaking process governing arms transfers into the global market place, U.S. policy makers must now reconcile maintaining economic competitiveness within the global system without jeopardizing U.S. national security interests. By subordinating national security interests to global economic imperatives, U.S. decisionmakers are at risk of mortgaging the political, societal, and security welfare of its citizenry for profit.     

美国强大的原因及发展趋势

美国强大的原因可以从势、道、制、术、器与士（即国际格局与国际力量对比、美国的意识形态与核心价值体系、政治经济与社会制度、科技与战略政策制定、经济与军事硬实力、人才培养与储备机制等方面）进行分析。由于新兴国家崛起,美国单极体系已经终结,美国霸权相对削弱,但是美国仍将在相当长的一段时间之内维持“一超”的地位。从劳动生产率、基础科研实力及研发投入、高等教育体系、外资投资环境、人口结构以及新兴产业等因素考察,美国经济长远来看仍具有较大的相对优势。未来美国霸权依然存在,美国二战后所确立的以“结构自由主义”为特征的国际秩序是美国霸权能够持久的最重要的基础,也是二战后西方国家之间的关系能够超越“零和”博弈格局的重要原因。美国对华战略并非遏制,而是“对冲/两面下注”。中美之间存在超越历史上传统大国“零和”博弈的可能,中国领导人提出建立中美新型大国关系的建议反映了这种战略远见。     

关于越战期间美国老挝政策的国外成果研究综述

冷战初期,老挝本不是美国东南亚政策的重点问题,但随着越南战争的爆发,美国对老挝的重视程度逐步加深,直至派出地面部队进行干涉。这一问题值得深思。国外针对该领域的研究已硕果累累,但国内的相关研究才刚刚起步。对国外相关研究成果的整理和推介,应有助于推动国内学者在该领域的研究取得更新突破。     

特朗普2.0版联盟战略与美国联盟体系的嬗变

联盟体系是美国维系全球霸权的重要支柱,也是美国外交安全政策的基石,这构成了美国联盟的内在连贯性。但美国联盟体系发展又具有周期性规律,具体表现在联盟规模、功能排序、管理方式和盛衰强弱以及由此引发的地区安全结构的变迁上。在特朗普看来,联盟体系在美国霸权护持上作用有限,美国的付出多于收益,由此联盟战略在美国国家安全战略中地位下降。正是在商人“成本—收益”思维下,特朗普对盟友收益补偿的意愿明显不足。新一届特朗普政府的联盟政策可能呈现交易式双边外交与选择性多边主义的结合,且去意识形态化和去制度化色彩浓厚。未来美国联盟内部分歧将会增多,盟友战略自主性增强,联盟体系内部凝聚力趋于下降,联盟功能趋于失调,因而美国军事政治经济一体化联盟体系可能趋于松散化和碎片化,并导致联盟体系网络化进程明显放缓。这些变化虽然意味着全球和地区战略稳定性松动、地区安全结构的稳固性下降,但有助于推动中国所主张的伙伴关系导向的国际秩序影响力超越美国的盟友关系导向的国际秩序,而美国回避新的安全承诺、对盟友“双重再保证”客观上或有利于中美之间的和平竞争。中国应利用美国联盟发展的周期性规律,推动构建稳定的地区秩序,强化周边地区安全,彰显大国责任与担当。     

Decision‐making during international crises: A reexamination

The purpose of this research note is to reexamine the methods and codings of crisis decision‐making processes performed by Herek, Janis, and Huth in 1987, and thereby to discuss the role of the case survey method as a means to build theory in the study of foreign policy. The research reported here uses a somewhat different measure of decision‐making process quality and a slightly expanded list of data sources than were used by Herek and his colleagues. It reevaluates a subset of the cases explored in the previous study. This research note largely confirms the analysis of crisis decision‐making processes presented in the previous study, though it notes and discusses some discrepancies. Furthermore, this reexamination seeks to contribute to our understanding of crisis decision‐making processes by using a different conceptualization of decision‐making process quality and thus a different coding procedure.     

Conflict reduction by mutual disengagement

This study attempts to discover what variables, if any, will induce opponents to cooperate. The author isolated 12 independent variables and grouped the first five together in his refined model as variable 6. The remaining variables are: worthlessness, supervision, conspicuousness, previous neutralization, absence of internal segmentation, military potential, and tradition as a neutral. Analysis was limited to bivariate relationships between the independent and dependent variables (i.e., possible outcomes). Cases tested included examples from the outbreak of World War I to the present. The author discovered that disengagement would most likely succeed in a geographically and ideologically distinct Country, one previously neutralized, that had little military value, a politically organized population, and some military capacity. The most unpromising candidate would lack clearcut ethnic borders, internal homogeneity, and political unity. Disengagement, while no panacea, offers the advantage of many opening moves in a conflict reduction situation.     

Mapping foreign policy behavior: An assessment and evaluation of events structures

Employing events indices for cooperation and conflict from the COPDAB data set, the graphic structuring process established by Steven Brams, and several alternative methods of quantifying the resulting event digraphs, this paper examines the utility of the graphic structuring process in efforts at explanation and prediction. Arguing that if the graphic structure represents an underlying structural order in the foreign policy behavior of states, predictability should exist between the graphic portrayal and other behavioral structures around it. Despite face validity in the sociometric qualities of the digraph results, little predictive capability was uncovered. The paper explains the testing process, disc asses the test results, and proposes alternative uses for the structural mapping procedure.     

Bush: The Sequel

This article examines the likely foreign policy initiatives of the U.S. under the leadership of George W. Bush. The new president has outlined a fairly thorough critique of America's international behavior in the 1990s. Because a leader's public statements arguably serve to persuade various audiences and to build support for policy change, the article takes Bush's words quite seriously—along with those spoken or written by his closest foreign affairs advisors. Bush intends to abandon the so-called Clinton Doctrine and deploy national missile defenses. He is critical of American policies toward China and Russia, but has not presented bold new initiatives toward those powers. Under the rubric of "compassionate conservatism," Bush may alter U.S. relations toward the Global South in some interesting ways. The president and his advisors often purport to be realists, but the article demonstrates that their own words belie this claim as they often justify policies based on ideals rather than the pursuit of power.     

Motivation and Intervention in the Northern Ireland Peace Process: An Interview with President Bill Clinton

The role of former U.S. President William Jefferson Clinton in the Northern Ireland peace process has been acknowledged as an example of political risk‐taking and leadership driven by political interests and strategic post–Cold War aims. The tendency to examine Clinton's role from the perspective of international and global policy objectives, however, has obscured consideration of his motivational role in the Northern Ireland peace process and of how he moved between encouragement and intervention to help the political parties reach a settlement. This article, which is drawn from an extended interview conducted with Clinton in 2017, seeks to paint a more comprehensive picture of Clinton's participation in the peace process, showing how his combination of motivational and interventional skills enabled him to help convince others of the need to take risks for peace and gave him greater influence and leverage over the peace process as a result.     

从1.0到2.0：特朗普政府对华安全战略的延续与政策变化

2024年美国总统大选以第45任总统唐纳德·特朗普的回归落幕。从“特朗普1.0”到“特朗普2.0”的八年间,国际安全环境、中美关系、美国政经态势以及特朗普个人状态等都发生了重大变化。国际安全环境日益严峻并进入历史转折点;中美关系因美方对华战略竞争而陷入历史低谷;美国自身政治与社会持续撕裂且经济状况存在隐忧;美国国内期待“特朗普2.0”明确回应国内诉求;特朗普个人则在偏好商人思维的同时也凸显强势与遗产导向。比较而言,“特朗普2.0”的对华安全战略将突出延续性,将延续拜登政府的相关政策,体现为延续对华战略竞争、推进“拜登+特朗普”复合议程并继续将经贸议题置于对华战略竞争的核心地位。在延续战略之下,“特朗普2.0”的对华政策也有可能呈现出一些变化,表现为对外事务聚焦于俄乌冲突和巴以冲突而非中国、经贸作为个人偏好成为主线后的不可控性、国际与国内两个维度对其经贸政策制造的更大压力以及陷入历史低谷的中美关系面对新“特朗普冲击”的自限性。