Draining the Swamp: Democracy Promotion,State Failure,and Terrorism in 19 Middle Eastern Countries

This study empirically evaluates the question of whether or not the promotion of democracy in the Middle East will reduce terrorism, both in terms of terrorist attacks sustained by Middle Eastern countries and in terms of attacks perpetrated by terrorist groups based in Middle Eastern countries. Using a series of pooled, time-series negative binomial statistical regression models on 19 countries from 1972 to 2003 the analysis demonstrates that the more politically liberal Middle Eastern states—measured both in terms of democratic processes and in terms of civil liberties protections—are actually more prone to terrorist activity than are Middle Eastern dictatorships. The study demonstrates, furthermore, that an even more significant predictor of Middle Eastern terrorist attacks is the intensity of state failures, or episodes of severe political instability that limit central government projection of domestic authority, suffered by states in the region. States that are unable to respond to fundamental challenges to political stability posed by internal political strife, ethnic conflict or the phenomenon of “stateless areas,” geographic or political spaces within states that eschew central government authority, are significantly more likely to host or sustain attacks from terrorist groups. The findings have implications for current United States antiterrorism policy toward the Middle East and provide a statistical/empirical foundation to previous studies on the relationship between terrorism and state failure.     

Exploring the “Root Causes” of Terrorism

This article attempts to clarify what is meant by “root causes” and considers if their analysis helps to explain and describe how, where, and why terrorism occurs. In attempting to explore—but not definitively resolve—these challenges, the article will attempt to delineate “root causes” into qualitative and quantitative variables that can be empirically tested in relation to contemporary terrorist activity. In so doing, it considers the relative merits of different methodologies for approaching “root causes.” The article concludes that indirect and underlying sources of conflict are significant to understanding specific incidents of terrorism and certain categories of terrorism; that “root causes” are less helpful in describing and explaining terrorism as a general phenomenon; and that root causes are of analytical use only in conjunction with precipitant factors.     

Terrorism and the Kenyan Public

Since 11 September 2001, terrorism has been a global security threat. One of the partners in the war on terrorism is Kenya. Considering Kenya"s recent experience with terrorist acts, their effects on its public psyche, and Kenya"s reactions to them in domestic and foreign policies, this study presents perceptions on terrorism from an exploratory survey in Kenya. Respondents feel most threatened not by terrorism but by AIDS and local criminals. Among terrorist acts, the most threatening include suicide terrorism, a plane crash, and stabbing attacks. Media reports on terrorism not only intensify feelings of anxiety and helplessness but also strengthen feelings for both peaceful and revengeful reactions. In order to prevent terrorist attacks, routine security checks, recognizing a Palestinian right to statehood, and intelligence collaboration with the CIA and Mosad are considered the most effective measures. Kenya"s commitment to the war on terrorism may be less a response to Kenyans" perceptions of terrorist threats than a policy to support the United States against terrorists in exchange for U.S. support against AIDS and for political stability, democracy, pluralism, and economic development.     

Toward a Theory of Terrorism: Human Security as a Determinant of Terrorism

In this article, we investigate the relationship between human rights conditions and terrorist activity. We begin by outlining a theory for the genesis and growth of terrorism and argue that states which deny subsistence rights along with civil and political rights create an environment that is conducive to the development of terrorism. However, we conclude that it is the denial of security rights that is a necessary condition for the creation and growth of terrorism. We then examine the causes of terrorism in Northern Ireland in light of this theory. Specifically, we explore the extent to which human rights abuses contributed to the formation and growth of terrorists within Northern Ireland. We find that limits on the civil and political rights of the Catholic minority in Northern Ireland played a significant role in the genesis of terrorism. More importantly, British abuses of security rights increased the number of Irish citizens who supported and participated in terrorist activity.     

The Changing Security Agenda in Southeast Asia: Globalization,New Terror,and the Delusions of Regionalism

One of the distinguishing features of international terrorism the past fifteen years has been the resurgence and proliferation of terrorist groups motivated by a religious imperative. Such groups are far more lethal than their secular counterparts, regarding violence as a divine duty or sacramental act conveyed by sacred text and imparted by clerical authority. Moreover, religious terrorism is not restricted to Islamic terrorist groups exclusively in the Middle East. The same characteristics—the legitimization of violence based on religious precepts, the sense of profound alienation and isolation, and the attendant preoccupation with the elimination of a broadly defined category of “enemies”—are also apparent among American Christian white supremacists, among some radical Jewish messianic terrorist movements in Israel, and among radical Sikh movements in India. Finally, as many of these groups embrace strong millennialist or apocalyptic beliefs, we may be on the cusp of a new and potentially more dangerous era of terrorism as the year 2000—the literal millennium—approaches.     

Toward a Theory of Terrorism: Human Security as a Determinant of Terrorism

In this article, we investigate the relationship between human rights conditions and terrorist activity. We begin by outlining a theory for the genesis and growth of terrorism and argue that states which deny subsistence rights along with civil and political rights create an environment that is conducive to the development of terrorism. However, we conclude that it is the denial of security rights that is a necessary condition for the creation and growth of terrorism. We then examine the causes of terrorism in Northern Ireland in light of this theory. Specifically, we explore the extent to which human rights abuses contributed to the formation and growth of terrorists within Northern Ireland. We find that limits on the civil and political rights of the Catholic minority in Northern Ireland played a significant role in the genesis of terrorism. More importantly, British abuses of security rights increased the number of Irish citizens who supported and participated in terrorist activity.     

Contextualizing Political Terrorism: A Collective Action Perspective for Understanding the Tanzim

An attempt is made to embed the study of political terrorism within the larger phenomenon of Collective Action. It is suggested that the analysis of dynamics within and between components of Collective Action—structure of conflict, a social movement, authorities, and contention—can be beneficial for gaining additional insights into the study of group risk for political terrorism. Using the case of the Tanzim contention with Israeli forces it is demonstrated how processes within, between, and outside the conflictants affected Tanzim members' decision to employ political terrorism. Based on the analysis, several implications for counterterrorism are offered.     

Reluctant terrorists? Transcaucasian social-cemocracy, 1901 – 1909

This article discusses the development of Transcaucasian social-democratic terrorism from 1901 to 1909. For two reasons the ‘psychohistorical’ model emphasising the subjective and irrational aspects of terrorism has only limited value for the Transcaucasian case. First, the significance of the contextual factor is powerfully underscored by the phenomenon of workers' ‘economic terrorism’. It was not uncommon even, for workers to blackmail reluctant party organisations into supporting the killing of their enemies. Secondly, the social democrats were not driven by irrational urges but followed a rationally motivated and selective terrorist strategy. They attempted to limit or prevent workers' terrorism from below, the ‘anarchist’ potential of which they considered a threat to the organised mass struggle. They set their hopes on a division of labour, with a militant but mostly peaceful workers' movement and terrorism as the prerogative of the party.     

Terrorism,Civil Liberties,and Political Rights: A Cross-National Analysis

This article examines the effect terrorism has on civil liberties and political rights across a wide range of democracies and regions. This study includes an analysis of the influence domestic and international terrorist attacks have on civil liberties and political rights in 48 democratic states from 1971–2007. The results from a time series cross-national analysis reveal that terrorism weakens civil liberties and political rights. However, certain types of democracies are more affected by terrorism than others. These findings have important implications for democracy and counterterrorism strategies in democratic states.     

Terrorist Sanctuaries and Bosnia-Herzegovina: Challenging Conventional Assumptions

This article argues that a model of terrorism and terrorist sanctuaries rooted in post-9/11 strategic thought and the Global War on Terror is inadequate to the study of terrorism in Bosnia and the Balkans. It addresses a series of conventional assumptions regarding Bosnia-Herzegovina's status as a putative terrorist sanctuary, based on a reading of post-war ethnic politics and political architecture. This assessment turns on the basic notion that terrorism in Bosnia is a complex phenomenon linked to multiple domestic and foreign communities, defined along competing national trajectories and intersecting foreign interests, and subject to evolving political circumstances and priorities.     

The Plots that Failed: Intelligence Lessons Learned from Unsuccessful Terrorist Attacks Against the United States

While much of the focus of terrorism research is on successful terrorist attacks, the most significant lessons for terrorism prevention may come from examination of terrorist plots and attacks that do not succeed. This article analyzes 176 terrorist plots against American targets that have been thwarted or otherwise failed during the past 25 years. It considers what kinds of intelligence and security measures are most useful in counterterrorism, and argues that the conventional wisdom about why intelligence fails—because analysts and agencies are unable to “connect the dots”—is wrong. Most plots, especially domestic terrorist plots, are not foiled through imaginative analysis, but through conventional law enforcement efforts and aggressive domestic intelligence collection that reveal to authorities just what the plotters are up to.     

China's Relations with India's Neighbours: From Threat Avoidance to Alternative Development Opportunity

Abstract

China, once seen as a threat by the states of South Asia, is now viewed correctly as an alternative development opportunity. The unprecedented success of the Chinese development model places it as an obvious alternative to that offered by India—or indeed by the Western model of development—but what implications does this have for the middle and small powers that surround India, and indeed for India and the Western developed world? The fundamental rationale for China's relations with South Asia has changed radically, but the Sino-centric nature of Chinese foreign policy remains. Uniquely, for India's neighbours, but also for the global political economy as a whole, Chinese economic power raises political issues of human security, economic interdependence, and the relationship between physical infrastructure and the benefits of global public goods. The Chinese necessity to tranship through South Asia is identified as a complex new reality for the great power.     

What Does the “Terrorist” Label Really Do? Measuring and Explaining the Effects of the “Terrorist” and “Islamist” Categories

Many scholars and practitioners claim that labeling groups or individuals as “terrorists” does not simply describe them but also shapes public attitudes, due to the label's important normative and political charge. Yet is there such a “terrorist label effect”? In view of surprisingly scant evidence, the present article evaluates whether or not the terrorist label—as well as the “Islamist” one—really impacts both the audience's perception of the security environment and its security policy preferences, and if yes, how and why. To do so, the article implements a randomized-controlled vignette experiment where participants (N = 481) first read one out of three press articles, each depicting a street shooting in the exact same way but labeling the author of the violence with a different category (“terrorist”/“shooter”/“Islamist”). Participants were then asked to report on both their perceptions and their policy preferences. This design reveals very strong effects of both the “terrorist” and “Islamist” categories on each dimension. These effects are analyzed through the lenses of social and cognitive psychology, in a way that interrogates the use of the terrorist category in society, the conflation of Islamism with terrorism, and the press and policymakers' lexical choices when reporting on political violence.     

Terror and Its Limits: The Historical Understanding of Terrorist Movements,States and Tribes in an Age of Cultural Anxiety

This article argues that much of the historical analysis of terror and terrorism in history has been weak in understanding the limits on terrorist activity and how terrorist campaigns eventually end. Reviewing three recent studies that examine various aspects of terrorism and the language of terror, the article seeks to show that states often play a major role in the way terrorist movements develop and eventually end up either defeated or moving into mainstream political engagement. The article points to a number of examples to illuminate this including the Carbonara in nineteenth century Italy, the Paris Commune and the ending segregation in the U.S. South in the 1960s.     

Nationalists without a nation: South Moluccan terrorism in the Netherlands

Abstract

This article focuses on the phenomenon of South Moluccan terrorism in the Netherlands. Beginning with a historical examination of the colonial relationship between the Netherlands and Indonesia, attention is then given to the circumstances in which some 21,000 South Moluccans came to the Netherlands in the early 1950s, and the social, economic, and political conditions of the South Moluccan community in Holland since then. Then follows a detailed examination of the main incidents of South Moluccan terrorism in the Netherlands which climaxed in a series of violent incidents against Dutch and Indonesian targets in the mid‐1970s. Special attention is placed on the ways in which successive Dutch governments have responded to the various outbreaks of terrorism, as well as to the effects of this terrorism on public opinion. The article then shows what effects South Moluccan terrorism has had on the policies of Dutch and Indonesian governments; on national and international public opinion; on the South Moluccans in the Moluccas; and on the international terrorist community. The paper concludes that the focus of South Moluccan terrorism in the Netherlands is likely to shift from attempts to secure an independent homeland for their people to closer contacts with other terrorist groups espousing anti‐colonial, anti‐imperialist, and nationalist ideals.     

The analytical foundations of extortionate terrorism

Extortionate terrorism is the threatened use of terrorist acts to gain concessions from the victim. In this article, game theory is used to seek answers to the following questions: (a) When will people resort to extortionate terrorism? (b) When will extortionate terrorism succeed and when will it fail? (c) What constitutes an “optimal” threat, i.e., what bribes, extortion, ransom, or payoff should be asked in exchange for which hostages or property? (d) When should unsuccessful threats be carried out and when should they be abandoned? (e) How should a victim choose among potential responses to specific terrorist threats and to the general problem of terrorism? Two different game theoretic models of terrorism are examined— one using ordinal preferences, the other von Neumann‐Mor‐genstern utilities. Terrorism is considered not simply as isolated incidents; institutions are potential victims of repeated terrorism. The terrorist and the victim, in formulating a response to each incident, are guided not only by present gains and losses, but by the effect their response has on others’ perception of their credibility and resolve—two long‐run variables.     

Social Inequality and Assessments of Democracy and the Market: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Considerable comparative scholarly attention has been paid to various aspects of mass support for democracy and the market. However, despite strong theoretical suggestions of a linkage, little is known about the impact of social inequality on this support. We address this issue using evidence from mass surveys undertaken in 12 post-communist states in 2007, supplemented by country-level data about economic and political performance. Specifically, we investigate whether social inequality generates negative perceptions that democracy and the market will lead to social conflict and if it increases support for anti-democratic forms of governance. Notably, we find little link between citizens’ expectations of social conflict and national-level indices of income inequality. However, we do find a link between perceptions of the extent of social inequality and expectations of market-generated—but not democracy-generated—conflict. Underscoring these positive and negative findings, perceptions of social inequality are also clearly consequential for support for ‘strong-hand’ economic government but not for anti-democratic leadership.     

Themes in official discourses on terrorism in Central Asia

This article explores the manner in which the governments of Central Asia, in particular Uzbekistan, have analysed and portrayed the actual and perceived threat from Islamist terrorism. It examines and critiques the core themes in this discourse, including the theoretical and legal definitions of the term terrorism, the delegitimisation and depoliticisation of the terrorist and the continuation of Soviet rhetoric on terrorism. It seeks to place this discourse in the wider political culture and objectives of the regimes and the broader security considerations of these newly independent states seeking to consolidate state- and nationhood.     

Target Malacca Straits: Maritime Terrorism in Southeast Asia

The strategic and economic importance of the Straits of Malacca makes it one of the world's major sea routes most vulnerable to a terrorist attack. The piracy problem that continues to frustrate maritime authorities in the Straits bears proof to this and, given the heightened security concerns post–9/11, has alarmed the waterway's major users. Although international pressure has forced the littoral states—Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia—to up their efforts on improving Straits security, national interests and a reluctance to address the problem as a potential terror threat continues to hinder cooperation. This article attempts to look at how three neighbors in the same Straits came to have such divergent policies on combating maritime terrorism.     

‘Selective Affinities’: The Reactions of the Council of Europe and the European Union to the Second Armed Conflict in Chechnya (1999 – 2006)

This article aims to compare how the main bodies of the European Union and the Council of Europe reacted to the issues raised by the armed conflict in Chechnya: human rights violations; the necessity (or otherwise) of political negotiations between the Chechens and the Russians; and Chechen terrorism. While the requests for political negotiations were quickly dropped by nearly all organs of the Council of Europe (CoE) and European Union (EU), the issue of human rights abuses uncovered a chasm between the legislative and decision-making bodies. The terrorist acts had no impact on either the EU's or the CoE's definition of the conflict in Chechnya, but they did influence EU policy. In sum, this comparison suggests the presence of ‘selective affinities’ between the CoE and EU bodies depending on the issue involved.