The Security Situation in Southern Thailand: Toward an Understanding of Domestic and International Dimensions

The spat of recent violence in Southern Thailand has drawn international attention once again to the political and security situation in the Malay-Muslim provinces of Thailand's restive Southern region. In this regard, this article suggests that in the search for solutions, the Thai government cannot afford to be pre-occupied with Muslim militancy while ignoring the role of other forces and interest groups, or the sensitivities of the Muslim population at large. Doing so, this article contends, will foster the very environment it should aim to eliminate--one that continues to alienate its Malay-Muslim community, strains relations with important neighbors, and encourages exploitation from foreign terrorist networks seeking a foothold in Southeast Asia.­     

Illiberal Democrats versus Undemocratic Liberals: The Struggle Over the Future of Thailand's Fragile Democracy

Abstract

This article examines the inter-related factors that underpin the fragility of Thailand's democracy. Uneven economic development, the high levels of income inequality, and unequal access to power and resources are significant drivers of Thailand's ongoing political conflict. Social divides across classes and regions, and populist exploitation of the rural poor's sense of alienation from the traditional ruling elites, provide a volatile backdrop to national politics. In addition, Thailand's unstable political history and the weakness of liberal institutions present risks to its democracy. The army, the revered monarch and the judiciary comprise elites whose periodic interventions in politics and reservations about electoral democracy further render the Thai polity fragile. Thailand's political situation represents a ‘slow-burning’ crisis of democracy: a long-term historical confrontation developing slowly, with the fundamental issues unresolved. It is undergoing a period of social turmoil fuelled by a power struggle between competing material interests and by an ideational contest to determine the country's constitutive political rules. This can be conceptualised as a struggle for control of Thailand's future between a heterogeneous populist-capitalist movement of illiberal democracy and conservative forces of undemocratic liberalism.     

From agricultural modernisation to agri-food globalisation: The waning of national development in Thailand

Agriculture has been central to accounts of Thailand's modernisation and the rise of the national development project between the 1940s and the 1970s. However, the role of agriculture in the waning of national development is rarely explored critically in the Thai context. This paper focuses on agriculture and the role of the state in the shift from national development to globalisation. The first part of the paper examines the beginnings of Thailand's modern agricultural sector, before turning to the state-sponsored diversification of agriculture in the 1950s. The paper locates shifting state responses to agriculture in the late 1950s and 1960s in the context of specific political and historical social forces, before exploring the emergence of agri-food exports in the 1970s and the rise of agribusiness in the 1980s and 1990s. The paper concludes by commenting on the significance of the Thai state's role in the national development project and the globalisation project.     

Thaksin Shinawatra and the reshaping of Thai politics

Twice elected prime minister of Thailand at the head of his Thai Rak Thai Party, telecommunications magnate Thaksin Shinwatra was controversial in office. Since his government was overthrown by a September 2006 military coup backed by the palace, conservatives, and a broad coalition of opponents, Thaksin has remained at the centre of Thailand's continuing political turmoil. This paper examines his political legacy, both in its positive and negative forms, through a focus on the nature of political parties and electoral policies in Thailand; the role of business interests in politics; the impact of Thaksin's politics on political activism and mobilisation; populism, social welfare, and the reaction of the middle class to welfare politics; Thaksin's confrontation with the elite and the monarchy; and the developing judicialisation of politics.     

The Labour Market Impacts of Immigration to Developing Countries: Evidence from a Registration Campaign in Thailand

Little is known about the labour market impact of immigration to developing countries, because most immigration to developing countries is poorly measured. We use an unusual dataset from a campaign to register irregular migrants to study how immigration has affected wages, employment, and internal migration in Thailand. We allow for endogenous migration, whereby immigrants are disproportionately attracted to areas with higher wages. Our results suggest that immigration sufficient to increase Thailand's total labour force by one per cent would reduce Thai wages by approximately half a per cent. This effect is stronger than is generally found in developed countries. We find no evidence that immigration has reduced Thai employment rates or has affected internal migration by Thais.     

The Quest for Leadership Legitimacy among Singapore Malays

Abstract

Much has been written about the problems and concerns affecting the Malay ethnic minority in Singapore. These include issues such as their socio-economic situation, relatively low educational performance, and increasing incidences of social ailments like high rates of drug addiction, divorce and youth delinquency. In the context of Singapore's multiracial and multi-religious fabric, little has been articulated about what is here argued to be a core issue of the ‘Malay plight’, namely, the legitimacy of the Malay political leadership. Apparently both the ruling-party-affiliated Malay politicians and their Malay opposition counterpart have been at odds with their perceptions and predispositions towards this particular issue. It is here that a bold, albeit controversial, alternative model called the ‘collective leadership’, was publicly goaded by the Association of Malay/Muslim Professionals in both their 1990 and 2000 National Conventions, which requires due consideration. Perhaps at a time of a changing Singapore society, this alternative or its variant could go some way towards mitigating, if not resolving, the long-standing Malay plight, and thus, benefit not only the Malay minority itself, but Singapore as a whole.     

Neo-liberalism and Domestic Capital: The Political Outcomes of the Economic Crisis in Thailand

The 1997 economic crisis in Thailand provided an opportunity for a reinvigoration of neo-liberal economic policies. International financial institutions, together with Thailand's Democrat-led government, emphasised further market reforms, liberalisation, deregulation, decentralisation, privatisation and a reduced role for the state. The deep economic downturn saw a popular rejection of such policies, meaning that the neo-liberal interregnum was short-lived. The 2001 landslide electoral victory of the Thai Rak Thai Party symbolised the intensity of opposition to neo-liberalism. It also showed that national governments remain critical in shaping markets and that domestic economic actors continue to have significant political roles. In Thailand, far from neutering domestic capital's political capacity, the crisis and opposition to neo-liberalism saw this enhanced. One reason for this was that neo-liberal restructuring was not simply about the efficient operation of the market. Rather, it demanded a fundamental transformation of the operations of government and of the ways that business was organised and conducted. This threatened domestic capital. Its economic survival required that it seize the state so that it could control economic policy-making. This was achieved through the Thai Rak Thai electoral victory and its subsequent rule, where the protection of domestic capital's interests was achieved through a re-negotiation of its social contract with other classes.     

Bad banking in Thailand? An empirical analysis of macro indicators

It appears to be common wisdom that the basic cause of Thailand's crisis is its extraordinarily weak financial institutions. The article questions this proposition from an empirical viewpoint. It is well established that the long‐term performance of Thailand's financial system is favourable. The insight from moral hazard indicators is unexpected regarding the bad banking proposition, although not compelling. Finally, the liberalisation process produced inadequately addressed risks. However, this also applies to experienced and well‐regulated foreign banks. It is argued that the facts provided can be better explained in a framework of system change than by bad banking in Thailand.     

Australia's Handling of Tensions between Islam and the West under the Howard Government

This article examines the impact of international conflicts involving the Muslim world upon Australia's multicultural society by studying the Howard government's responses to tensions between Islam and the West since September 11. Specifically, it surveys the Howard government's participation in the ‘War on Terror’, other aspects of Australia's foreign and security policies, including the relationship with the United States, the emergence of immigration and refugee flows as national security issues, and the subsequent impact of all this on multiculturalism and in particular on Australia's Muslim community. At a broader level, the article challenges the argument that foreign policy is inconsequential for social policy, intercommunal, inter-ethnic and inter-religious relations. The internalization of the ‘War on Terror’ has reinforced a negative portrayal of Islam and Muslims in Australia by blurring the dividing line between ‘Islam’ on the one hand and ‘extremism’ and ‘terrorism’ on the other. The evidence suggests that government statements and policies, more generally had provoked apprehension amongst a wide cross-section of the Australian Muslim community. A major finding of this article is that unless care is taken, it is not inconceivable that the hitherto harmonious relationship between Muslims and other sections of Australia's community could be unnecessarily endangered.     

Jihadist Highway to Jihadist Haven: Turkey's Jihadi Policies and Western Security

Turkish support to jihadists is not merely a tactic aimed at removing Assad from power. It stems from a strategic decision on the part of Turkish authorities to influence Middle East affairs through non-state actors, much as Iran has been doing for some time. Turkey's support of jihadists transiting into Syria and its establishment of close ties with Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood are joint aspects of this strategy. Turkish authorities have permitted Al Qaeda sympathizers to use pro-government media to promote their beliefs. The authorities have adopted a new political language that fuels anti-American and anti-Western sentiments. Prosecutors who have attempted to prevent shipments of weapons to Al Qaeda–affiliated groups in Syria have been fired and in some cases incarcerated. Indeed, by now Turkish prosecutors and the Turkish National Police are thoroughly intimidated. Not a single counterterror operation has been launched to disrupt Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)’s networks or recruitment activities. The Turkish National Intelligence Organization has been given full responsibility to deal with jihadist activities, without any active oversight, and the police are loath to venture into their territory. As a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Turkey's jihadi policies have direct and indirect impact on Western security. This article examines Turkey's jihadi policies by examining official statements, media reports, interviews, and fieldwork.     

Understanding Insurgency Violence: A Quantitative Analysis of the Political Violence in Northern Ireland 1969–1999

The main argument examined in this article is that the escalation of political violence in Northern Ireland between 1969–1999 resulted because of the state's reliance on repression and this had conflicting effects contributing to the rise in violence. Perhaps the most important finding reached by this research was that a state's reliance on repression is positively associated with more insurgent violence. This research suggests that variations in outcomes to the use of force by a democratic state may result because one may assume a linear model exists when in reality the true relationship maybe curvilinear.     

Women's rights in the muslim world: reform or reconstruction?

The issue of gender inequality is an acute problem in countries where women's lives are governed by laws, and configured by customs and traditions, said to derive from Islam. In the second half of the 20th century, two Muslim feminist paradigms have emerged in response to this malaise. Islamic feminists aim to establish women's rights within the Islamic framework by re-interpreting Islam's holy sources. In contrast, secular feminists challenge the particularistic nature of the Islamic framework and advocate the application of a set of standard universal rights for Muslim and non-Muslim women. This article focuses on the writings of the Moroccan feminist Fatima Mernissi, tracing her evolution from advocating secular reconstruction of Muslim societies to a position that resembles Islamic reformism.     

State Power and Its Implications for Civil War Colombia

The following article examines the relationship between state power and civil war in Colombia. It presents three key findings. First, state weakness has provided armed groups with the political opportunity for rebellion. In this respect, most rebel consolidation takes place in areas of Colombia that lack a strong state presence. Second, the growth and evolution of Colombia's armed groups are directly related to their ability to loot exportable natural resource commodities. In stateless areas of Colombia, rebel consolidation tends to take place in areas where the drug trade is also present. Third, the conditions of civil war have led insurgent groups to mimic some of the basic functions and attributes of statehood. Colombia's conflict is more than just a manifestation of popular frustration; indeed, this article shows that civil war is also a form of state-building.     

Al Qaeda's Twenty-Year Strategic Plan: The Current Phase of Global Terror

This study examines Al Qaeda's organizational dynamics, doctrinal precepts, strategic objectives, operational priorities, and tactical vectors in the context of its Twenty-Year Strategic Plan. This seven-stage Strategic Plan is addressed with a particular focus on its current phase (Stage 5), 2013–2016, involving the mobilization of Muslim forces for the “Declaration of the Caliphate.” In this regard, particular attention is paid to the Al Qaeda engagement in militant jihadist campaigns across the Middle East and other Muslim domains. The study concludes with an overall assessment of global threats and ongoing risks arising from the current phase of Al Qaeda's Twenty-Year Strategic Plan.     

Cossack identity in the new Russia: Kuban Cossack revival and local politics

This article deals with the problem of contemporary Cossack identities, and discusses the question of popular support for the Kuban Cossack organisation in the southern Russian region, Krasnodar krai. In the early 1990s the Cossack movement gathered between 3.5 and 5 million people, and constituted a significant political movement in post-Soviet Russia. Today, the movement's political force has weakened. In this article it is argued that one important reason for this is the tension between the urban based, official Cossack politics, and the constructions of Cossack identity in rural Cossack settlements (stanitsas). It is further argued that this tension is produced by the Cossacks' historically changing relation towards the state.     

Crossing the Ideological Divide? Egypt's Salafists and the Muslim Brotherhood after the Arab Spring

An important strand in the literature has stressed the analytical distinction between the Muslim Brotherhood's brand of Islamism and the Salafist movement. This article examines the shifts that have occurred within these two movements in Egypt since the Arab Spring. It specifically asks whether approximations between them in terms of strategies of actions have been paralleled by ideological approximations. The article argues that both movements have seen increased diversification which has—especially at the fringes—involved a reshaping of identities and ideological approximations that may facilitate cooperation between segments of these movements in the future.     

Building the Base: Al Qaeda's Focoist Strategy

Al Qaeda has developed a coherent strategy for insurgent violence that has much in common with the focoism advocated by Che Guevara in the 1960s. In their strategic writing, explored here, key Islamist strategists stress the role of violence in creating revolution, and describe the export of committed fighters to focoist enclaves at the margins of enemy control. In contrast to some prominent themes in recent scholarship, the article argues that physical space is demonstrably important to the revolutionaries, that their development of leaderless jihad is designed to supplement not replace territorial control, and that their violence is avowedly strategic.     

Iran's Crisis of Legitimacy

The Iranian revolution—the political realization of the "Great Refusal" of Western modernization—was a direct consequence a half century later of the forced secularization of the Ottoman Caliphate by Kemal Ataturk. With the superstructure of the Muslim ummah dismantled and replaced by the Turkish nation state, insurgent religious movements, from the (Sunni) Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to the Shiite imams of Qum and Najaf, moved into the vacuum to reclaim Islam from the shadow of Western dominance.
Now, history is turning again. Iran has been seized by violent turmoil as it seeks to reconcile democracy and religious rule. Secular Turkey is governed by an Islamist-rooted party. As they struggle to regain their balance, the global economic meltdown threatens a convergence against globalization that joins the Islamist resistance with populist backlashes elsewhere.
Two legendary intelligence agents, a Hezbollah leader, an Iranian dissident philosopher and Shirin Ebadi, the Iranian human rights lawyer and Nobel Laureate, examine this historical turn.     

Islamization in Malaysia: processes and dynamics

Over the past three decades Malaysian society has undergone radical change and transformation. On one level this has been brought about by the country's rapid economic transformation, but equally significant has been the deepening Islamization of the country. From banking to law, from dress to education policy, almost no sector of Malaysian society has escaped the growing influence of Islam upon the socioeconomic and political make-up of the country. The prevalent explanation for this dynamic has been the political competition between the United Malay National Organization and the Islamic opposition party, Parti Islam Se-Malaysia, since the early 1980s. Such explanations, however, clearly marginalize the role of other societal factors and dynamics. Consequently, this article contends Islamization in Malaysia has created a series of processes that have produced results which are self-reinforcing. Ironically, the strategy for diverting the extremes of Islamic revival by co-option has actually produced a far more dynamic penetration of state and society by conservative Muslims who have become a powerful constituency supportive of the further religious coloration of government bureaucracies and programmes.