The Security Situation in Southern Thailand: Toward an Understanding of Domestic and International Dimensions

The spat of recent violence in Southern Thailand has drawn international attention once again to the political and security situation in the Malay-Muslim provinces of Thailand's restive Southern region. In this regard, this article suggests that in the search for solutions, the Thai government cannot afford to be pre-occupied with Muslim militancy while ignoring the role of other forces and interest groups, or the sensitivities of the Muslim population at large. Doing so, this article contends, will foster the very environment it should aim to eliminate--one that continues to alienate its Malay-Muslim community, strains relations with important neighbors, and encourages exploitation from foreign terrorist networks seeking a foothold in Southeast Asia.­     

Separatism and Southeast Asia: The Islamic Factor in Southern Thailand,Mindanao, and Aceh

Islamic insurgent movements in southern Thailand, the southern Philippines and Aceh represent, arguably, the most visible signs of armed separatism in Southeast Asia today. The roots of ethnoreligious unrest in each of these regions stem from the same basic factors: insensitivity to local concerns, regional neglect, military repression and the contemporary force of militant Islam. The longevity of the movements that have arisen in southern Thailand, the southern Philippines and Aceh has largely been determined by the degree of popular support each has been able to call on as well as operational considerations such as external support and access to weaponry.     

Insurgent Strategies in the Post-Cold War: The Case of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia

This article analyzes the adaptation of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) to the post-Cold War strategic scene. In this process of change the Colombian guerrilla organization has broken away from the traditional behavior patterns of Latin American armed groups in four key ways. First, the FARC has reduced the rigidity of its ideology in order to make its political message more attractive. Second, it has made a great effort to boost its military potential. Third, it has established independent channels of funding and arms supply. Finally, the Colombian rebels have developed a very decentralized organic structure that nevertheless maintains a sufficient degree of cohesion. These innovations have made the FARC a new model of insurgency that has managed to corner the Bogota government and destabilize a significant part of the Andean region.     

Situating Property in Transformation: Beyond the Private and the Collective

In most parts of the post-socialist world high expectations regarding privatisation were quickly disappointed when it became obvious that property practices did not follow the ideal type predicted by market models. The article addresses this divergence and emphasises the necessity of overcoming the dualism of an ideal type of property rights on the one hand and the way property is handled in everyday life on the other. It argues that concrete situations as well as the necessary justifications of practices have hitherto both been widely neglected as empirical foci in studies on property relations. Five brief episodes from the privatisation of collective farms in rural Russia serve as examples to illustrate how situations and justifications are reflexively linked by drawing on and negotiating about differing ‘orders of worth’.     

As a Fish Swims in the Sea: Relationships Between Factors Contributing to Support for Terrorist or Insurgent Groups

This article reviews and synthesizes social science knowledge on the connections between popular support and terrorist/insurgent sustainment. After distinguishing between “sympathetic of” and “supporting,” the author identifies support requirements of terrorists and insurgents, the range of sources of support, and motives for support. A scheme of relationships between factors contributing to strength of support is essayed. As a caveat to population-centered approaches to counterterrorism and counterinsurgency, the article concludes that support is not “one size fits all,” and that certain factors, when present, are more amenable to policy influence than others. These conclusions suggest that it is imperative that practitioners of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency be mindful of the specifics of their case when seeking to undermine support.     

Fighting Cosmic Warriors: Lessons from the First Seven Years of the Global War on Terror

This article argues that a successful strategy for fighting the Global War on Terror (GWOT) requires actions aimed not only at defeating the Al Qaeda network and denying its operatives sanctuary, but also efforts to delegitimize Al Qaeda's ideology; the United States has focused on the former at the expense of the latter. The GWOT requires a new strategy, one that continues to target Al Qaeda operatives and their assets, while undermining Al Qaeda's message. This requires a better understanding of Al Qaeda's ideology, how U.S. foreign policy may fuel that ideology, and a strategy for undermining militant Islam's worldview.     

The State and the Internet: A Call for Collective Responsibility

The other great transformation in the world besides the rising power of the emerging economies has been the ever deeper penetration of the Internet in civil society and the economy. Alone among world leaders, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has sought to address the sticky issue of how to “civilize the Internet” in the G‐8, a key forum of global governance which France chairs this year. As a kind of historical document, in this section we publish Sarkozy's speech to the leading information technologists and entrepreneurs he gathered in Paris in May for the first “e‐G‐8” Summit. Eric Schmidt, executive chairman of Google, was among the attendees. We include his report to the 21st Century Council of the Nicolas Berggruen Institute.     

从泰国动乱透视“西式民主”的尴尬

2010年5月19日,泰国遭遇“现代史上最黑暗的一天”,军方出动装甲车驱散示威人群,红衫军领导人随即宣布自首。泰国这场旷日持久的示威行动终于在付出血的代价后宣告结束。示威共造成至少75人死亡,1800人受伤,示威还对泰国的经济造成严重冲击,泰国旅游业损失惨重．股市大跌．全国经济面临衰退危险。     

泰国政治动荡的原因与前景

2008年9月9日，泰国宪法法院宣布，沙玛·顺通卫在总理任职期间，四次主持电视烹饪节目，并收取报酬8万泰铢（约合2300美元），违反宪法第267条款，立即剥夺总理职务。随后，经过一周的内部协商，以人民力量党为首的执政联盟于9月16日提名颂猜·翁沙瓦参选总理职位。9月17日的众议院表决中，人民力量党副主席颂猜以298票对163票压倒反对派候选人——民主党主席阿披实·维乍集瓦，成为泰国第26位总理。     

Neo-liberalism and Domestic Capital: The Political Outcomes of the Economic Crisis in Thailand

The 1997 economic crisis in Thailand provided an opportunity for a reinvigoration of neo-liberal economic policies. International financial institutions, together with Thailand's Democrat-led government, emphasised further market reforms, liberalisation, deregulation, decentralisation, privatisation and a reduced role for the state. The deep economic downturn saw a popular rejection of such policies, meaning that the neo-liberal interregnum was short-lived. The 2001 landslide electoral victory of the Thai Rak Thai Party symbolised the intensity of opposition to neo-liberalism. It also showed that national governments remain critical in shaping markets and that domestic economic actors continue to have significant political roles. In Thailand, far from neutering domestic capital's political capacity, the crisis and opposition to neo-liberalism saw this enhanced. One reason for this was that neo-liberal restructuring was not simply about the efficient operation of the market. Rather, it demanded a fundamental transformation of the operations of government and of the ways that business was organised and conducted. This threatened domestic capital. Its economic survival required that it seize the state so that it could control economic policy-making. This was achieved through the Thai Rak Thai electoral victory and its subsequent rule, where the protection of domestic capital's interests was achieved through a re-negotiation of its social contract with other classes.     

Transitional democracies and the shift to export-led industrialization: Lessons from Thailand

The third wave of democratization sweeping the developing world has occurred in tandem with market and export-oriented shifts in economic policy. This article assesses the prospects for the success of this double transition in Thailand. Some have suggested that the political prerequisites of the shift from import substitution industrialization to export-led industrialization are quite narrow. In this view, newly democratic governments are likely to lack sufficient autonomy from distributional coalitions to impose the losses on those organized groups to sustain a successful economic transition. Analysis of the Thai case suggests that such a shift in economic strategy can be politically manageable while providing for the emergence of a democratically based export-led coalition if inherited economic distortions are mild, political mobilization associated with the democratic transition is low, liberalization, of the trade regime is statist, and if the countries’ export markets are strong. This suggests that the political prerequisites of export-led industrialization may be wider than previously thought.     

In the Gap the State Left: Policy Feedback,Collective Behavior,and Political Participation in Zambia

In advanced industrial democracies, evidence suggests a positive relationship between inclusive public policy, collective behavior, and political participation. Yet Africa, which generally exhibits high levels of collective behavior, often has exclusionary policies and variable rates of political participation. Using Afrobarometer data and qualitative case analysis in Zambia, this paper argues that the links between collective behavior and political participation differ in African countries due to lower government capacity and weaker structures of accountability linking politicians to policy outcomes. Employing a policy feedback framework, it demonstrates that the policy context in which collective behavior emerges determines the extent to which it influences political participation. Specifically, low levels of service provision generate higher levels of collective behavior, indicating that communities organize in response to need. The extent to which this collective behavior results in political participation, however, depends in part on citizens’ political efficacy.     

National Identity: Civic,Ethnic, Hybrid,and Atomised Individuals

We challenge the civic–ethnic dichotomy drawn by previous authors and propose a four-category typology of identities based on out-group tolerance and in-group attachment. Drawing from work on national identity formation and nation-building, we test hypotheses about the processes that cause individuals to adopt one identity over others using survey data based on representative samples of five ethnic groups in Ukraine. We find that the effects of socialisation processes vary greatly depending upon ethnic group. Our results challenge some long-held assumptions about the potential destabilising effects of ‘ethnic’ identities and the degree to which ‘civic’ identities correspond to values and behaviours supportive of democracy.