近代以降埃及现代化的探索

作为中东伊斯兰世界具有重要影响力的国家之一,埃及在近代西方的冲击下成为西亚北非地区最早着手现代化的国家,亦是该地现代化程度较高的国家,埃及的现代化进程无疑是伊斯兰世界的一个缩影。本文通过梳理近代以来埃及在政治、经济和社会层面的现代化轨迹,总结其现代化进程所面临诸多挫折困难的原因、教训和启示,有利于我们认识政治民主化、法制化、经济市场化、工业化、社会多元化和公民化等现代化的本质和内涵,为中东地区国家现代化发展进程以及存在的诸多问题方面提供了经验和借鉴。     

Governments and press control: Global attitudes on journalistic matters

This study, consisting of interviews with official representatives of 58 countries, was conducted from January to May, 1987 while the writer was a Senior Fellow at the Gannett Center for Media Studies at Columbia University in New York. It is an investigation of the ‘'inclination to control'’ the press by various national governments, and is related to press freedom, press ethics, professionalization of journalism, and to concerns with the New World Information and Communication Order (NWICO).

The study was planned so as to get interviews from Government information/press officials (in New York City and Washington, D.C.) from six broad regions of the world—Western Europe/North America, Latin America, Africa, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Asia. The interviews concentrated on six main factors believed important in determining “control” in a press system: (1) in‐country licensing, (2) international licensing, (3) identification cards or accreditation, (4) university education, (5) in‐country codes of ethics, and (6) international codes of ethics.

It should be stressed that actual control of the press in the examined countries was not the focus of the study. Rather, the objective was to ascertain the tendency or inclination on the part of the government (and total system) to control the media. On the basis of the interviews, a “control inclination index”—CII—was computed for each country, reflecting attitudes toward the six factors listed in the paragraph above. CII scores of 24 would indicate the maximum inclination to control; the lower the scores, the less inclination the country has to control the press.

Results: The region of the world most inclined to control the press is the Middle East with the highest average total score of any region (21.7). The region with the second highest CII score is Latin America, with a score of 19. Eastern Europe and Africa, each with a score of 18.5, tied for the third highest spot in press control inclination. Rather surprisingly, the region with the next to lowest inclination to control was Asia (CII = 16.2). And the region least inclined to press control was Western Europe and North America (U.S./Canada), with an average CII of 12.5.

Countries of the world with the highest CII scores (24) were the German Democratic Republic, the People's Republic of China, Iraq, Syria, Tunisia, Cuba, and Peru. Countries next most inclined to control (scores of 23) were Bulgaria, Jordan, and Paraguay, followed by Ethiopia, USSR, and Lebanon (22), and Angola, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Egypt, and Panama (21). Countries getting scores of 20 were Central African Republic, Zimbabwe, Malaysia, Kuwait, and Bolivia.

Countries with scores under 20 in the index were Ivory Coast, Hungary, Pakistan, Argentina, Ecuador, and Guyana (19), Nigeria, Poland, Portugal, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and South Korea (18). Austria had a score of 17. With scores of 16 were Denmark, Turkey, Chile, Costa Rica, and Guatemala. The Sudan, Finland, and Spain had scores of 15. South Africa and the Philippines had 14, and New Zealand had 13.

Countries with scores of 12 and below (considered very little inclined to control the press) were the following: Norway and India (12), Sweden, Australia, and Japan (11), the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the Federal Republic of Germany, and Mexico (10), Greece and Canada (9), and the United States with the lowest score (8).     

Conversations in Istanbul: An interview with Bulent Ecevit

Turkey, a strategically located but often unappreciated ally of the West, receives inadequate attention in Western media. It has served as a crucial element of Western defense during the cold war and is a bridge between Europe and the Middle East. The following interview with former Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit examines the Turkish perspective on important Turkish foreign and domestic issues, specifically focusing on: Arab‐Israeli conflict, Turkish‐Greek dispute over Cyprus, Turkish relations with the Arabs, Turkish relations with the United States and West European countries, Arab relations with the West, and internal Turkish political affairs.     

中东剧变与阿拉伯世界的未来

当前中东正经历的历史性剧变,不仅引发阿拉伯世界的集体大动荡,而且严重冲击地区政治、安全和地缘政治关系,也对大国的中东政策构成重大挑战。未来中东局势改革已势在必行;伊斯兰政治力量将增大,阿拉伯世界长期陷入内乱,伊朗、土耳其将谋求发挥更大地区影响力;美国全球战略与中东政策面临多重结构性挑战;欧盟在外交、能源、安全、移民等方面遭遇前所未有的压力;国际原油市场受冲击从而影响全球经济复苏。     

Running the Blockade: Information Technology,Terrorism, and the Transformation of Islamic Mass Culture

Arab media is no longer limited to state-sponsored sources, opening a door of opportunity to the Muslim world. Islamic terrorist groups leverage information technology to form resilient, networked organizations that influence how many Muslims perceive events and U.S. political goals. This article looks at the connection between information technology and cultural transformation in the Middle East. It focuses on how information technology—as the major weapon system in the battle of ideas—has been used effectively by Islamic extremists and less so by the U.S. Important conclusions are drawn regarding the necessity of culturally-attuned uses of information technology.     

Terrorism-Free Zone in East Central Europe? Strategic Environment,Risk Tendencies,and Causes of Limited Terrorist Activities in the Visegrad Group Countries

The aim of this article is to analyse terrorism and the phenomena linked to it in East Central Europe. In comparison with a number of other regions of today's world, this area can currently seem to be a relatively “terrorism-free zone.” Although the number of terrorist attacks committed in this territory is insignificant, this does not mean that the risk of terrorism is entirely negligible in the region. This text explains some historical determinants of the current situation and describes the consequences both of regime change in the countries in question and of their foreign policy decisions after 1989. I also analyse the importance of East Central Europe as a logistical space for international terrorism (weapons procurement, stays of terrorists, etc.). I characterise the threats of Islamic and Middle Eastern terrorism in connection with the pro-American and pro-Israeli policies of East Central European countries, especially after 9/11, assess the risks posed by the domestic extremist scenes in those countries that have a relationship with terrorism, and take notice of the accusations of terrorism that have been voiced in international politics. On the basis of this data, I then provide an overview of the importance of East Central Europe for the contemporary study of terrorism.     

Islam and politics in Europe and in Asia: Comparative reflections

This article compares the role of religion, and of Islam in particular, in politics in Europe and in South and South East Asia. It starts out with the policy dilemmas facing France, Europe's most secular country that also has Europe's largest immigrant Muslim community. After long debates nation-wide Muslim organisation is now sponsored by the state in order to strengthen moderate Islam in France. In contrast, explicit Christian parties are in decline in most of Europe. Those who are still electorally successful are Christian mostly in name only and have turned into centre-right conservative people's parties instead. Religious discourse in politics has hence vanished almost entirely in Europe. In difference in Asia Islamic opposition parties have managed to set increasingly the political agenda in the majority Islamic states. In those countries with an Islamic minority their public religious agitation serves to strengthen their ethnic minority identity. Meaningful bi-continental dialogue needs to be aware of this discrepancy in religious politics.     

近代以来中东地区伊斯兰思潮在东南亚的传播方式和影响（19世纪初-20世纪上半叶）

中东地区是伊斯兰世界的中心，东南亚地处伊斯兰世界的边缘。中东地区作为伊斯兰教的中心，一直盛产各种伊斯兰思潮：瓦哈比运动、伊斯兰现代主义、伊斯兰民族主义等，并通过朝觐和留学等方式向东南亚伊斯兰社会传播，激发了东南亚的帕特里运动、伊斯兰现代主义和民族主义运动的兴起和发展。     

Regulation and Self-Regulation: The Role of Media Commissions and Professional Bodies in the Muslim World

This article examines the state of media regulation in Arab and other Muslim countries. Whereas most countries in Europe, including the emerging democracies of Central and Eastern Europe, and some of the African societies in transition have developed media commissions of different types, most Muslim countries are so far reluctant to ease the dominating state control of the media, especially in the audiovisual sector. A majority of journalists associations in the Middle East and North Africa still need to distance themselves from governments and ruling parties. Their major task is to ensure observance of ethical standards, a task in which they have to struggle with the desires of governments and parliaments to make excessive use of the judiciary to sanction journalists. So far, Muslim countries have yet to develop their own models for restructuring the changing media sector and for creating a viable system of checks and balances that would control the media in a democratic way. Governments should aim to develop a common understanding among regulatory bodies and media practitioners and thus to provide for common concepts of ethical standards. In these efforts, much can be learned from the wide range of experiences gained by the transitional societies of Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa during the last decade.     

State of the world 2018: democracy facing global challenges*

This article analyses the state of democracy in the world in 2018, and recent developments building on the 2019 release of the V-Dem dataset. First, the trend of autocratization continues and 24 countries are now affected by what is established as a “third wave of autocratization”. Second, despite the global challenge of gradual autocratization, democratic regimes prevail in a majority of countries in the world (99 countries, 55%) in 2018. Thus, the state of the world is unmistakably more democratic compared to any point during the last century. At the same time, the number of electoral authoritarian regimes had increased to 55, or 31% of all countries. Third, the autocratization wave is disproportionally affecting democratic countries in Europe and the Americas, but also India’s large population. Fourth, freedom of expression and the media, and the rule of law are the areas under attack in most countries undergoing autocratization, but toxic polarization of the public sphere is a threat to democracy spreading across regimes. Finally, we present the first model to predict autocratization (“adverse regime transitions”) pointing to the top-10 most at-risk countries in the world.     

Journalism as “Prostitution”: Understanding Russia's Reactions to Anna Politkovskaya's Murder

When the Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya was gunned down in her apartment building in Moscow in October 2006, heads of Western governments and nongovernmental organizations hurried to make strong statements condemning the murder, and public rallies in Politkovskaya's honor were held in front of Russian embassies across the world. In contrast to this swift and unequivocal response, the reaction of Russian officials, journalists, and the public at large was delayed, lukewarm, or nonexistent, much to the incomprehension of Western observers. To understand why the majority of Russian citizens were unmoved by Politkovskaya's murder, this article will contend, we need to understand the specific history of media-political transformation in Russia over the past decade and a half. This includes (a) approaching Soviet journalism as a unique nexus of ethics and politics, (b) studying the centrifugal forces unleashed during Russia's media privatization in the 1990s, and (c) understanding how those forces (in tension with the centering pull under Putin) have been shaping the practices and meaning of journalism in post-Soviet Russia over the past decade and a half. Such context-sensitive and historically contingent exploration will, in turn, suggest new theoretical tools for thinking about journalistic action, or agency, in political contexts short of classical liberalism more broadly.     

失去的十年：美国中东战略失败的理论探讨

十年前的“9·11”事件极大地改变了美国国际关系理论的走向,以“文明冲突论”为外交政策的理论指导,推行“武力反恐”和“民主改造”政策,引发伊斯兰世界反美情绪高涨。美国与伊斯兰世界的矛盾原本是二战后美国主导的世界经济秩序造成南北贫富悬殊的政治经济矛盾,而美国新保守主义却从唯心主义的思维方式出发,过高估计自身力量推行“大中东民主”,使得美在冷战后本有可能进一步巩固中东地位变得影响力大不如前。奥巴马上台后,虽然明确放弃布什时期“文明冲突”理念,努力缓解伊斯兰的反美情绪,但已很难超越中东已有的现实,十年错误路线导致的“外交后遗症”不是“灵巧外交”短期内所能挽救的。     

动荡中孕育变革、低迷里不乏希望——2011年国际局势总结与2012年展望

2011年,“阿拉伯之春”改变了中东、北非地缘政治生态;美国加速全球战略调整,高调“重返亚太”;全球政治思潮空前激荡,世界仍面临形形色色的恐怖威胁;西方主要经济体表现低迷,新兴经济体强劲增长势头放缓。2012年,多个主要国家大选,世界政治版图会以何种方式重建值得关注;欧债危机继续,但在欧盟干预下有可能得到缓解;中东局势将是全球政治最大聚焦场所,未来大国关系因中东局势如何调整是事关全球地缘战略格局的新挑战。     

State of the world 2017: autocratization and exclusion?

This article presents evidence of a global trend of autocratization. The most visible feature of democracy – elections – remains strong and is even improving in some places. Autocratization mainly affects non-electoral aspects of democracy such as media freedom, freedom of expression, and the rule of law, yet these in turn threaten to undermine the meaningfulness of elections. While the majority of the world’s population lives under democratic rule, 2.5 billion people were subjected to autocratization in 2017. Last year, democratic qualities were in decline in 24 countries across the world, many of which are populous such as India and the United States. This article also presents evidence testifying that men and wealthy groups tend to have a strong hold on political power in countries where 86% of the world population reside. Further, we show that political exclusion based on socio-economic status in particular is becoming increasingly severe. For instance, the wealthy have gained significantly more power in countries home to 1.9 billion of the world’s population over the past decade.     

从中东变局透视国际秩序的演变

中东动荡不仅是该地区国家政治和社会发展历史进程的一部分,而且还深刻反映了国际秩序的调整与变化。冷战结束以来,国际环境的迅速变化以及世界政治经济权势的快速转移是诱发中东变局的重要原因之一。从时机上看,美国中东战略的收缩,为中东变革运动的兴起提供了可能;从发展上看,全球化的深入发展,拉大了中东与世界其他地区的差距;从理念和制度建设上看,改革创新的时代精神对缺乏机制和制度创新动力和能力的中东国家形成了巨大冲击。而正在转变中的国际秩序以及世界权力结构的变化趋势,也必将对未来中东地区秩序重构及各国政治及社会转型产生重要影响。     

Rethinking Ethical Journalism in the Worsening Socio-Economic and Political Crisis in Zimbabwe

Abstract

This article reviews the practice of ethical journalism in Zimbabwe. It reports on a study that engaged with both public and private journalists through in-depth interviews, to rethink ethical journalism in the worsening socio-economic and political situation in Zimbabwe. The study used thematic analysis informed by the communal approach or sociology of journalism ethics to analyse journalists’ perspectives. Several factors were found to be causes for unethical journalism practice, namely, political interference; poor economy; corruption; biased editorial policies; political activism; and interests of media owners or funders. The findings of the study reflect parallelism or antagonism between the public and private media in Zimbabwe. Therefore, the article calls for a common view based on the communal approach. It argues that social responsibility must be the norm in the face of corruption and economic challenges. An independent media body should be appointed by the Zimbabwean government to preside over the public media as the first step towards ethical journalism.     

阿拉伯世界政治和社会动荡的原因及影响

阿拉伯世界出现激烈的政治和社会动荡，其原因十分复杂。美国等西方大国积极介入。这场动荡可能开启阿拉伯民众寻求新的发展道路的历史进程。当下这轮动荡由乱到治尚须时日。动荡对中东地区格局产生广泛影响。美国对中东事务的主导能力减弱，但其主导地位并未根本动摇。     

Counter-mythologising “media freedom”: including the audience in media freedom discourses and a new normative position for the global south

This article argues for a conscious counter-mythologisation of the popularly utilised term “media freedom” within media political and policy discourses. It further argues for a diversion from understanding this term to refer exclusively to the sphere of media production involving the ability or freedoms of media producers to do their work without hindrances to their independence – whether these stem from state actors, media owners or other external forces. The article contends that a free media should theoretically, and in addition, be considered from the perspective of the audience(s) and its respective prospects of access and accessibility to the entirety of the media landscape. Since challenges of meaningful access and accessibility to media communications persist in much of the Global South, the article concludes by suggesting a newly theorised normative approach to the role of the media in a democracy, which is in keeping with socio-political conditions in historically “Othered” regions of the world. Utilising the example of a counter-mythologisation of media freedom, and adopting an audience-centred approach, the article additionally contends that any attempt at formulating new media theory ought to be contextualised within the global crisis of inequality in order for it to be relevant to the majority audience.     

Yes,no, maybe: an analysis of journalists’ views about political party membership in South Africa

This article reports on an analysis of South African journalists’ views on independence from political parties at a time when the journalist fraternity appeared to be split in two (with nuances in between): those who appeared to support the nationalistic, patriotic project of sunshine journalism to focus on the “positives” and enhance the image of the country as espoused by the ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), and those who attempted to abide by codes of ethics according to the Press Council of South Africa (PCSA). The PCSA stipulates that belonging to a political party constitutes a conflict of interests, and recommends distance from political parties, with the liberal normative view of watchdog journalism and holding the powerful to account. The analysis combined and integrated a few methods to reach conclusions about the master signifier in the discourse of journalists. It used a survey conducted with journalists in 2015 for quantitative and qualitative analysis, and deployed Zizek’s use of the concepts of master and floating signifiers to offer some critical reflections about journalists’ relationships to political parties. It found that the majority of journalists felt that their credibility would be compromised if they belonged to a political party, but quite a large section felt that journalists had biases anyway, so what was the problem?     

中国在中东国家油气投资现状及前景

中国在中东地区的油气投资从本世纪初开始起步,早期的油田开发主要集中在阿曼、也门等石油资源并不富集的国家。2004年以后,随着中国对海外投资力度的加大,中国石油企业在中东的投资全面展开。中东国家正逐步成为中国企业能源开发、投资的热点地区之一。尽管受中东产油国特殊政治环境、法律条约等不确定因素影响,中国在中东国家的能源投资面临着不可避免的风险和障碍,但双方未来油气合作的前景依然广阔。