The Catholic contribution to democratization's ‘third wave’: altruism,hegemony or self-interest?

This article examines the contribution of the Roman Catholic Church to democratization's ‘third wave’. Whilst making no substantive claims about the centrality of religion to political transitions, it indicates several ways in which national Catholic hierarchies and the wider Catholic Church contributed to democratization. Of more interest, however, is the question of why the Catholic Church shifted from its traditional position of hostility to democracy. Three primary explanations are offered for the Catholic contribution: theological change, the pursuit of hegemony and the attempt to maintain market share. All three offer useful insights, though this article ultimately suggests that a combination of internal change and contingency is key to understanding this phenomenon.     

Poland's political scapegoats

Abstract

General Jaruzelski's regime assists Moscow's polemical offensive against the West by claiming that Poland is a victim of political subversion. The imposition of martial law in December 1981 and the suppression of democracy are elaborately justified by Warsaw with reference to political foes conspiring to destroy socialism in the country. Four scapegoats are regularly attacked—domestic opposition, previous administrations, the West, and Polish society itself—in order to attain four objectives: self‐justification, diverting responsibility, crisis management, and ideological packaging. Propaganda campaigns against political scapegoats, and the implementation of policies to combat them, are important mechanisms for liquidating independent movements and extending government controls over society.     

菲律宾天主教会的再政治化与战后菲律宾社会转型互动机理研究

二战后,菲律宾天主教会以布道者和政治家的双重身份深刻影响着菲律宾战后社会政治转型,经历了一个与执政当局相互依靠并结盟,善意批评仍合作,最终决裂且抗争,民主监督与制衡的过程。教会无论是被迫“去政治化”还是主动“再政治化”都与菲律宾国内当时的社会、政治主题密切相关。天主教会通过内部的政治动员与外部的政治联盟,对社会转型施加影响力,维护教会的核心利益。     

When governments ignore public opinion in foreign policy: Poland and the Iraq invasion

This article asks why the Government of Poland participated in the invasion of Iraq in March 2003 when a large majority of the Polish public was opposed to national involvement in Iraq. The aim is to further an understanding of the circumstances under which democratic governments ignore public opinion in their foreign policy decision-making. The article argues that a combination of three circumstances increased the willingness of the government to ignore the public. First, the Iraq issue had relatively low salience among the Polish voters, which decreased the domestic political risks of pursuing the policy. Second, the government's Iraq policy was supported by a considerable consensus among the political elite. Third, the political elites were unified in their perceptions that participating in the invasion would yield essential international gains for Poland.     

Refugee Law and Protection in Brazil: a Model in South America?

Brazil has been committed to International Refugee Law sincethe 1950s. For much of this period, however, the country wasunder a dictatorship which made the implementation of refugeeprotection precarious, although refugees and asylum seekerscould count on the assistance of UNHCR and its implementingpartners—NGOs connected to the Catholic Church which remainpartners of UNHCR till today. Following re-democratization,Brazil has not only passed a specific law on refugees, but hasevolved to become a resettlement country. These changes haveled Brazil to be regarded as a model in refugee protection inSouth America. This paper aims to assess whether or not Brazilis fulfilling the said role by describing the evolution of refugeelaw and protection in the country.     

Populism and democratic crisis in semi-presidential countries

This article demonstrates how different political opportunity structures in semi-presidential countries either enable or inhibit the overreach of populist presidents. In Turkey, for example, political leverage has been used to hamstring the opposition and transform a democratic regime into an authoritarian one. In Bulgaria, democracy also faded under a populist prime minister. Ukraine’s democracy had a checkered history, with frequent changes of power culminating in presidential breakdown. The Czech Republic introduced popular elections for the president to strengthen legitimacy, but that exposed the regime to conflict between the president and the prime minister.     

Systematic Procedures for Operational Code Analysis: Measuring and Modeling Jimmy Carter's Operational Code

In this article we introduce a new scoring system for doing operational code analysis and test its reliability and validity by measuring and modeling President Jimmy Carter's operational code. Using speeches from the public record, we construct indices for the elements of the operational code construct. Based upon the valences and scaled intensities of verbs uttered in the speeches, President Jimmy Carter's views of the political universe and approaches to political action in different issue areas are identified and compared. The results of the analysis provide reasonable support for the face, construct, and content validity of the operational code indices. We find that Carter's view of the political universe and approach to political action were consistent across issue areas during the first three years of his term as president. Following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan President Carter's support for human rights remained steadfast. Statistically significant shifts occurred in his views of the Soviet Union and others in the political universe and in his approach to political action regarding the conduct of U.S.-Soviet relations and other issues.     

公民社会与拉美国家政治转型研究

公民社会在拉美国家的政治转型过程中发挥了重要作用:圣保罗论坛和世界社会论坛已成为拉美政治左转的思想高地;天主教会仍是最能影响和控制人的思想和行为的公民社会组织,其在历次政治转型中发挥的作用不可低估,尤其在"还政于民"过程中的推动作用不可忽视;土著人组织通过其政治参与使国家政权更具包容性,民主参与机制更为广泛,是拉美政治转型的直接推动力之一;社会运动、妇女、学生等其他弱势群体也是拉美政治改革和转型的积极推动者。此外,公民社会还包括个人和家庭等社会细胞,其经济和教育水平的提高为拉美国家的政治转型提供了社会基础。     

Refugee Return Migration: Return Migration from Sweden to Chile, Iran and Poland 1973 1996

In this paper, return migration from Sweden to three sourcesof refugee immigration is analysed, with a focus on the effectof political change in 1990. Chilean immigrants reacted morestrongly to political liberalization in the home country thanPolish immigrants did, primarily due to more favourable economiccircumstances in Chile compared to Poland in the 1990s. In fact,the increase in Polish return migration propensity after 1990is not statistically different from the Iranian increase, inspite of the absence of political liberalization in Iran. Thereare significant cohort differences within the Chilean group,indicating an element of economically motivated migration withinthe last waves of Chilean refugee immigration in the late 1980s.Hence, successful implementation of schemes of voluntary returnmigration for refugees will not only be dependent on an improvedpolitical situation in the source country, but will also behighly dependent on economic circumstances.     

The Polish Blitz,More than a Mere Footnote to History: Poland and Preventive War with Germany, 1933

The January 1933 appointment of Adolf Hitler as Chancellor of Germany marked the beginning of the end of the fragile post-war peace throughout Europe. The Polish leadership had good reason to fear his threats of revising the Treaty of Versailles. Realising that Hitler was too dangerous to remain in power, the Polish leadership led by Marshal Józef Pi?sudski prepared for a preventive war against Germany. Unfortunately, the appeasement policy among the Western Powers condemned this plan to failure and forced Poland into signing a non-aggression pact with Germany in 1934; thus dooming Poland's existence. To test his premonitions about Hitler, Pi?sudski created several international “incidents” concerning the Free City of Danzig, designed to test both Germany and whether the Western Powers would fight to uphold the Treaty of Versailles. Pi?sudski's efforts offer proof that Poland deserves more credit for its determination to deal with a rising tide of Nazi Germany.     

Lifting the 'No Haste,Be Patient' Policy: Implications for Cross-Strait Relations

Cross-Strait relations remain deadlocked following Chen Shui-bian's inauguration as Taiwan's president. Amid this political stalemate, Chen's administration decided to change the 'no haste, be patient' ( jie-ji yueng-ren ) policy while refusing to endorse the 'one China' principle. While this policy change is in response to domestic demands, Chen and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are unlikely to reap any benefit from these actions without active cooperation from China's leaders. Beijing will continue to use its economic clout in an attempt to pull Taiwan into political union, as Taipei needs to nurture an environment favourable for domestic and foreign investment in Taiwan in order to maintain its competitive edge over China and thus preserve its de facto independence. Beijing's leaders will need to rethink their rigid stand on the 'one China' principle, since increased cross-Strait economic integration may not lead to the expected political union they desire.     

Remarks

This study analyzes the ways in which the issue (or issues) of religion and politics were shaped during the 1984 campaign partially by the exigencies of political rhetoric and partially by the logic of the problem itself. The form in which the issue(s) of religion and politics came into view is traced in four addresses: one each by President Reagan, Walter Mondale, Senator Edward Kennedy, and Governor Mario Cuomo. One premise of this study is that such political speeches are in some sense and to some extent rational discourse aimed at persuading the unpersuaded that the speakers’ moral, political, and constitutional perceptions are cognitively superior to opposing perceptions. The author finds two substantive issues in the argument: the “toleration/church and state” issue and the “relation of Catholic moral principles and public policy” issue. The manner in which the speakers defend their position on these issues is explicated so as to reveal the strengths and weaknesses in each speaker's formulation. The limits of the accuracy of each side's rhetoric are identified in such a way that it becomes evident they are debating importantly different interpretations of principles on which they nominally agree. It is argued that the core of the debate concerned whether religious citizens have a right to try to change the drift towards an exclusion of religious traditions and practices and of religiously based moral values from a place in our public policy or whether such exclusion is required constitutionally and hence attempts to change its attack or undermine the Constitution.     

Blacked Out: Government Secrecy in the Information Age,by Alasdair Roberts

This article uses Ross Perot's campaign for president in 1992 as a case study in how two key political institutions—the conventional political press and the party system—mediate the effects of political communication. Reporters allocated positive and negative coverage to Perot according to the same rules that they normally follow, and voters were as responsive to this coverage as they were to media coverage of two earlier “outsider” candidates for president, Jimmy Carter and Gary Hart. Part I of this article, which appeared in the previous issue of Political Communication, dealt with the earliest, relatively unmediated phase of Perot's campaign and the takeoff phase of the mediated campaign. Part II deals with the remainder of the campaign, including the general election.     

The Vatican and the Chinese Party-State: Where Do the Parallels End?

Some observers are drawing parallels between governing the Catholic Church and governing the party-state in China. Analogy can be illuminating, but it also can obscure or mislead. This article contends that there are three quintessential similarities between the two polities. Both are permeated perennially by agency problems. Each is a self-claimed “virtuocracy.” And both hold aloft distributive justice, a mission that, if overlooked, would undermine the polities’ raisons d’être. This essay also contends that the two polities differ in three fundamental aspects. Seemingly functioning beyond a legal framework, the clerics and others who broadly implement the policies of the Catholic Church actually are as subject to the law as anybody in a liberal democracy, unlike the leaders of the party-state in China. Second, the party-state in China is more obsessed with blame avoidance than claiming credit, while the reverse is true for the Holy See. Finally, and paradoxically, the party-state in China is far less ideologically constrained than the Vatican. These comparisons and contrasts between the two polities help to shed light on the intrinsic nature of each regime.     

Should development agencies have Official Views?

The major development agencies have ex cathedra 'Official Views' (with varying degrees of explicitness) on the complex and controversial questions of development. At the same time, knowledge is now more than ever recognised as key to development--in the idea of a 'knowledge bank' or knowledge-based development assistance. The author argues that these two practices are in direct conflict. When an agency attaches its 'brand name' to certain Official Views, then it becomes very difficult for the agency also to be a learning organisation or to foster genuine learning in its clients. A model of a development agency as an open learning organisation, which is in sharp contrast to other organisational models such as the Church or the party, is outlined. That, in turn, allows the agency to take a more autonomycompatible approach to development assistance with the assisted country 'in the driver's seat' of a learning process rather than as the passive recipient of aid-sweetened policies from the agency.     

Political Liberalization in Bin Ali's Tunisia: Façade Democracy

In considering political liberalization in post-Bourguiba Tunisia since 1987, it is hard to argue the case for the reforms initiated by his successor, President Bin Ali, without noticing their limitations and even contradictions. In a world characterized by increasing democratization, the Tunisian example seems to buck the global trend, despite several noteworthy achievements - periodic elections, licensed political parties, sustained economic growth and stability. To a considerable extent the analysis of Bin Ali's 'façade democracy' here confirms this assessment, owing especially to the exclusionary and corporatist character of the democracy. Bin Ali's much hailed 'era of change' may well be not much different from the regime of his predecessor. Like Bourguiba, Bin Ali continues to exclude Islamists and other potentially formidable opposition from more secular forces from political participation and contestation. Similarly, the start of a presidential campaign by the ruling party to amend the constitution, in 2001, to enable Bin Ali to remain president beyond his constitutionally mandated second and last term which ends in 2004, gives a strong sense of déjà vu: Bourguiba's presidency-for-life.     

The Potential and Pitfalls of a Zero-Sum Grand Strategy

Grand strategy provides the strategic vision for a state in pursuit of its national interests. The current U.S. grand strategy straddles the line between isolationism and off-shore balancing. Based on the international relations theory of realism, these strategies view international actions as a zero-sum game. In other words, a country can only benefit at the expense of another. The zero-sum logic is clearly articulated in the “America First” strategic documents. It is also apparent in many of the president's speeches and policy actions. While the Trump administration's zero-sum approach has potential to rebalance burdens and level the playing field in such areas of trade, it is fraught with risks and jeopardizes the standing of the United States in the world.     

波兰总统选举后俄波关系走向分析

2010年7月4日,科莫罗夫斯基当选波兰新一届总统,他将调整前任莱赫.卡钦斯基实行的内外政策。波兰和俄罗斯在历史上就积怨很深,冷战后,波兰加入北约和欧盟,实行疏远、抑制和防范俄罗斯的政策。卡钦斯基对俄的强硬态度以及美波之间在导弹防御系统上进行的合作,引起俄罗斯的强烈不满,两国关系进入冰冻期。科莫罗夫斯基上任后,两国关系有望回暖,但波兰依靠美国提高防御能力、压制俄罗斯的战略不会改变。表面友好、暗中对抗将是俄波两国关系的主旋律。     

Unfinished business: the Catholic Church,communism, and democratization

Although history has shown us that the church plays a role in the political liberalization of non-democratic countries, the nature of the church's role and how it participates in politics has yet to be fully revealed. By revisiting the Polish Church's historic role in the collapse of communism, I argue that we have overestimated the church's effect on political liberalization in that case, which has led us to neglect or be prematurely disappointed in its role in the remaining communist countries such as in Cuba. Drawing from the Polish case, I conclude that the church's moral, self-limiting, and transnational character needs to be recognized and incorporated into a general theory of democratization. It is this aspect of the church that has helped it to remain active within remaining communist societies, and provide the moral support that is an integral part of political liberalization processes.     

The Limits of Electoral Democracy in Ukraine

In the past two years Ukraine has held new elections for both its parliament and president. Some might claim that these elections are evidence of democratic progress. However, elections are only a necessary, not sufficient component of democracy, and to make judgements about democratic consolidation solely on the basis of elections is to fall victim to the fallacy of 'electoralism'. While it is true that Ukraine does possess an electoral democracy, democratic consolidation remains elusive and is susceptible to a variety of problems. These include a weak civil society and weak political parties, regional divisions, unstable political institutions and a lack of the rule of law. By some measures Ukraine may even have regressed from 1994, as an oligarchy has consolidated itself and authoritarian trends are readily discernible.