当代英国华人社会与政治参与：以2010年大选为中心

本文以英国华人参与2010年下议院选举为中心,分析英国华人社会的变迁与政治参与。本文分为两个主要部分。第一部分讨论近20年来英国华人社会的结构及其特征,指出尽管华人人数迅速增加,但华人社会内部的多元化和碎片化的特征明显存在,这对华人社会内部凝聚力的形成和对英国国家认同感的建立有一定的阻碍作用。近来这一情形有所改变。第二部分围绕参加2010年选举的8位华裔候选人的政纲、组织、策略和选举结果,具体分析英国华人参政的成就与问题。结语部分探讨英国华人社会融合和参政的未来道路以及政策含义。     

浅析当前尼泊尔政局

尼泊尔政局持续动荡引起各方广泛关注。国王统治被推翻后,尼泊尔国内的主要矛盾已转变为七党联盟与尼共(毛)对国家权力的争夺。本文拟通过对尼泊尔国内主要政治力量间的博弈,以及印、美等国对尼泊尔内政外交的影响来简要分析当前该国和平重建进程中存在的主要问题及尼政局未来可能的走向。     

阿拉伯民族的三大特点及其对阿拉伯政治思潮的影响——以民族与宗教关系为视角的考察

宗教性、整体性、地方性构成了阿拉伯民族的三大特点,并对近代以来的阿拉伯政治思潮产生了重要影响.宗教性在伊斯兰改革主义、原教旨主义和泛伊斯兰主义中都得到了体现.在伊斯兰改革主义中体现为民族认同与宗教认同的混合;在原教旨主义和泛伊斯兰主义中体现为以宗教认同否定民族认同,但两者的政治主张又有所不同.整体性构成了泛阿拉伯民族主义的历史基础.强调民族认同高于宗教认同,对伊斯兰教既排斥限制,又加以整合与利用,构成了泛阿拉伯民族主义对待伊斯兰教的典型特征.地方性特征构成了地方民族主义产生的历史基础,地方阿拉伯民族主义主张以地方认同和国家认同为基础,建构自身的民族认同,排斥和贬低泛宗教认同,并奉行反对政教合一的世俗主义主张.     

Turkey and the IMF: A case study in the political economy of policy implementation

Research into IMF program implementation has usually taken the form of large sample regression analyses. A more detailed explanation is offered in this paper through a case study of program implementation in Turkey between 1999 and 2004. Our research is based on a series of in-depth interviews with policy makers, program negotiators, bureaucrats, interest groups and IMF personnel. Our results reinforce hypotheses that emerge from the theory of implementation and the large sample econometric work, but they also offer new and enhanced explanations. Program implementation depends on a range of factors which interact with one another. These include domestic political economy factors, such as the importance of special interest groups, political cohesiveness and program ownership by the government and the IMF, but also other idiosyncratic factors such as, in the case of Turkey, the existence of a crisis, the desire to join the EU and the role of influential technocrats. Our research has implications for the design of IMF programs.

Regionalism in Asia as Disguised Multilateralism: A Critical Analysis of the East Asia Summit and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Revolving around the concept of ‘Community’ or ‘community’, debate on an Asian region has ostensibly pitted those who proposed an entity limited to East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea and the ten countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations, ASEAN) against those who proposed a much wider region embracing India, North (and, perhaps, South) America, as well as Australasia. Previously these two conceptualisations possessed their eponymous translation in the East Asian Economic Caucus (reincarnated as ASEAN+3) and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. However, with the creation in 2005 of the East Asian Summit to include India, Australia and New Zealand and, above all, its 2011 enlargement to include the United States and Russia, the contrast between the two conceptualisations of an Asian region has become confused. In order to explain this development, this article suggests that the language of ‘region’ or ‘community’ is a discursive smokescreen disguising changes in approaches to multilateralism. An examination of the East Asia Summit, contrasting it with another recent regional project, the Trans Pacific Partnership, suggests that the actors involved are seeking to ensure the primacy of individual nation states in intergovernmental multilateral relations.     

Political Markets, Bond Markets, and the Effects of Uncertainty: A Cross-National Analysis

One of the critical challenges of contemporary democracy is securing a balance between the markets of representation and the markets of exchange and capital within democracies. This article explores the effect that political markets have upon capital markets' performance as measured by the market risks within the long-term government bond markets in nineteen democracies of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) between 1955 and 1992. Our theory linking political markets and capital markets will be developed around the logic of transaction cost economics. We will argue that critical aspects of transaction costs within political markets generate corresponding transaction costs and risks within capital markets thereby reducing market efficiency. Specifically, we demonstrate that, based on cross-national evidence drawn from three panels over the time period 1955–1992, stochastic political markets generate transaction costs within long-term government bond markets, the consequences of which are reflected in rising market risk within these capital markets. Our pooled cross-sectional sample confirms that stochasticity in institutional structure presents trade-offs for democracy. Stochasticity may reflect more responsive and generally sensitive representative institutions, but often at the price of risk-laden capital markets. We consider the implications of these findings at the conclusion of the article.     

全球主义思潮和民族国家意识的碰撞--浅论跨国公司的是与非

跨国公司被誉为“把先进技术带给穷国,把低成本产品带给富国”的机制,是“进步的力量”及 “各国间的和平力量”,但在风起云涌的反全球化运动中它却首当其冲。这是为什么?有时,跨国公司又被斥为“资本主义的幽灵”,从事“世界范围的财富掠夺和劳动剥削”,然而发展中国家却趋之若骛。这又是为什么?     

The Sirens' Call of Relative Gains Concerns: A Critical Analysis of Their Presumed Rationality in the Prisoners' Dilemma

The notion that in international interactions state-actors care not only about their own absolute gains, but also about the size of these gains relative to what other actors receive, is one of the pillars on which rests neorealists' pessimism about the prospects of cooperation in repeated Prisoners' Dilemma (PD) and, by extension, in international politics. Although there has been a lively debate over the impact of relative gains concerns on the prospects of cooperation, the prior question, whether states should in fact care about relative gains at all, has not been seriously confronted. This article questions the assumption that rational states should care about relative gains in PD. As the literature motivates them, relative gains concerns are best understood as a heuristic device designed to guide states toward inter-temporal optimization of their absolute payoffs. Using simulated tournaments of a model of a dynamic, multi-player PD, this article puts to the test whether relative gains concerns in fact achieve this purpose. Contrary to what has been presumed, the analysis demonstrates that in many contexts it is harmful and dangerous for states to care about relative gains. Furthermore, whenever states are in a position to tell whether, in a particular setting, it might be rational for them to care about relative gains, the heuristic of relative gains concerns is redundant. The important issues that the literature on relative gains has sought to address should continue to be discussed, but not through the lens of the problematic and misleading conceptual apparatus of relative gains concerns.     

促进合作维护和平实现共赢--东北亚地区国际关系走势分析

东北亚是世界重要经济区之一。日本、韩国的资金、技术 ,俄罗斯的资源 ,对我国的经济建设 ,尤其对东北老工业基地振兴 ,是不可缺少的。东北亚是大国利益交汇处 ,是世界热点之一 ,但不会发生战争。要树立外交新思维 ,采取灵活的外交政策 ,维护东北亚的和平稳定 ,积极推进以中、日、韩合作为核心的东北亚经济合作 ,实现地区繁荣 ,为我国全面建设小康社会创造良好的国际环境。     

A Comparative Analysis of Political Parties in Kenya,Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo

This article compares the characteristics and development of the main political parties of Kenya, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, starting from their independence in the 1960s up to the late 1990s. It offers an exploratory analysis of the differences and similarities that might have led to the, more or less, successful establishment of political parties and democratic regimes in these countries. The parties are compared along four dimensions: colonial heritage, the saliency of ethnicity, political communication between the party elite and the periphery, and their link to civil society. The study shows that the development of national parties at the time of independence was severely hindered by the colonizers. The inherited political structures encouraged the exploitation of both ethnic and regional links and further strengthened patronage networks. But also in more recent years, political leaders have used ethnicity as a strategic tool to strengthen their position in power. The comparative analysis shows that in those countries in which ethnicity was most salient, political parties were less democratic and less favourable for democratization. The analysis also highlights that the country with the least active political communication had the most difficult path towards a multiparty system. Finally, the article suggests that a civil society that is truly independent from the government, and incorporates powerful players in urban areas, is most likely to contribute to the development of a competitive party system.     

政治转型中的制度因素：泰国选举制度改革研究

本文认为,泰国政局持续动荡的重要原因,在于各派政治利益集团在重新划定权力边界的政治转型过程中始终未能在政治制度层面达成显规则与潜规则的相互契合。尽管各方对改变“小党林立”格局存在共识,但“反他信”阵营的既得利益集团偏好“两党对峙”格局,而“挺他信”阵营的新兴利益集团倾向“一党优势”格局。由于两派都存在对“实际控制力一潜规则权力边界”的错位误判,使得各方难以通过选举制度的显规则调整来重新划定彼此间的权力边界,从而导致持续的政治冲突与角力。     

达尔富尔问题与中国话语权——评《全球视野下的达尔富尔问题研究》一书

由浙江师范大学非洲研究院执行院长刘鸿武教授和中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所李新烽博士主编的《全球视野下的达尔富尔问题研究》(下称《研究》)一书,于2008年10月由世界知识出版社出版发行.     

“民主孤岛”的悲剧——吉尔吉斯斯坦政局动荡原因分析

吉尔吉斯斯坦自2005年"颜色革命"以来一直处于政治动荡之中,其中既有经济极度贫困,也有当权者及其家族专制导致腐败猖獗,从而引发政权更迭并催生民族矛盾不断激化等多重原因。如今,吉全民公投选择了权力分散的议会制体制。新政权也将面临长期难以解决的弥合南北分歧、在俄美矛盾中生存、确保国家政治体制正常运转、化解新旧政权以及新政权内部党派林立的矛盾等一系列难题。     

中国在东南亚民众心目中的形象——基于跨国问卷调查的分析

本文通过分析2006-2008年东亚地区一项跨国大众观念问卷调查--亚洲民主动态调查发现,东南亚陆地国家(如越南和泰国)的民众对中国的看法比海洋国家(如新加坡、马来西亚、印尼)的民众更正面.中国在东南亚的形象总体而言好于美国在东南亚的形象,但不及日本.海外华人对中国的看法比其他族群更正面.而在学校接受英语教育、平时也使用英文的人群,对中国的印象相对较差.东南亚的穆斯林民众对中国的印象也相对较差.中国需要针对这些人群提高传递自己形象的能力.此外,也需要着力培养在东南亚年轻一代心目中的正面形象.     

英国学派多元主义与社会连带主义论争——一种比较视角

在国际关系理论的英国学派中,存在着两种主要的概念和研究方法取向,即多元主义与社会连带主义.本文主要探讨两者的异同及其本质.它们的共同点在于,以马丁·怀特的三大思想传统作为自己的理论立场,坚持理性主义的国际社会观、关怀人权等道德价值.然而,它们之间也有很大分歧,主要是两者对国际社会赖以存在的基础--国际法有不同认知,即国际社会是以自然法还是实在法为基础;在人权以及与其有着密切关联的人道主义干涉和西方对第三世界的责任问题上,看法也大相径庭.多元--连带之争实质上探讨的是国际社会的本质、潜能和规模,以及国际社会成员对于规则、规范、价值、制度的分享程度.双方的论争不仅是国际关系理论一个新的理论增长点,而且加深了人们对于国际社会与世界社会的理解.     

解读“超级恐怖主义”——《超级恐怖主义:新世纪的新挑战》介评

“9·11事件”使国际恐怖主义成为国际关系议事日程中的关注焦点 ,也成为国际关系学界的研究重点。在全球化浪潮深入发展的 2 1世纪 ,国际恐怖主义将发生哪些变化并以何种形式表现出来 ?它将给人类社会带来怎样的威胁 ?国际社会应该如何应对 ?针对这些关乎国际安全未来发展的重大问题 ,各国的安全问题专家都在进行不断的研究与探索。2 0 0 2年 12月 ,俄罗斯政治研究中心组织俄罗斯联邦安全局、对外情报局、外交部和安全会议的专家编纂出版了《超级恐怖主义 :新世纪的新挑战》① ,以“俄罗斯的视角”对上述重要问题做出了自己的解读。首先 ,…     

Space-Time Granger Analysis of the War in Iraq: A Study of Coalition and Insurgent Action-Reaction

We investigate insurgent-coalition interaction using the WikiLeaks dataset of Iraq war logs 2004–2009. After a review of existing theoretical interventions on the dynamics of insurgency and presenting a baseline model of violent events, we test a conceptual model of reciprocity using an innovative space-time Granger causality technique. Our estimation procedure retains predicted probabilities of reaction in response to a previous opponent's action across different temporal and spatial configurations in Iraq and in Baghdad. Our conclusions about conflict in Iraq are based on these profiles of risk—what we call space-time signatures. We find strong evidence of “tit-for-tat” associations between coalition/Iraq forces on one side and insurgents/militants on the other. Specifically, we find that the action-reaction association varies strongly by majority ethnic region across Iraq and in Baghdad, by urban and nonurban location, and within Sunni-dominated areas, by district income. While violence is strongly temporally dependent in the same location, the effect of distance varies significantly across the different subsets of the Iraq data.     

美国政治中的文化因素——《文化冲突与对美国未来政治的争夺》介评

长期以来 ,人们习惯从经济学或从政治学角度分析美国政治问题 ,或认为经济因素决定了美国的政治行为 ,或认为党派政治决定了美国的政治行为。而美国西景出版社 2 0 0 2年出版的著名记者罗伯特·肖甘的专著《没有终点的战争 :文化冲突与对美国未来政治的争夺》(ＷａｒＷｉｔｈｏｕｔＥｎｄ :ＣｕｌｔｕｒａｌＣｏｎ ｆｌｉｃｔＡｎｄＴｈｅＳｔｒｕｇｇｌｅＦｏｒＡｍｅｒｉｃａ’ｓＰｏｌｉｔｉｃａｌＦｕｔｕｒｅ)则从文化角度分析政治问题 ,认为文化因素在塑造美国政治方面起了决定性作用。首先 ,文化因素不仅与美国政治密不可分而且左右…     

21世纪第三世界的新阐释--《当代第三世界透视》评介

冷战结束后 ,经济全球化浪潮以汹涌澎湃之势扫荡着地球村每个角落 ,正向世人展示一幅“新版的世界经济地图” ;政治多极化趋势挟不可阻挡之态冲击着单极化的企图 ,一个前所未有的新世界政治格局初露端倪。这两大趋势与潮流 ,相激相荡 ,相互影响 ,构筑成 2 1世纪人类社会发展的的大背景、大舞台、大挑战 ,同时也给世界重要板块的第三世界以空前的巨大冲击。于是 ,业已模糊的“第三世界”概念再次进入人们的视野 ,如何在“新剧”中“扮演”新的角色、怎样直面各种挑战 ,成为摆在所有第三世界国家面前的一个崭新的课题 ,也是一个亟待探讨的理论…